2018 Arkansas Derby

stark
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:58 pm

1. Beautiful Shot, Richard Eramia

2. Machismo, Scott Spieth

3. Tenfold, Victor Espinoza

4. Dream Baby Dream, Luis Contreras

5. Solomini, Flavien Prat

6. Magnum Moon, Luis Saez

7. Plainsman, C.J. McMahon

8. Quip, Florent Geroux

9. Combatant, Ricardo Santana, Jr
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Sparrow Castle
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:47 pm

Machismo just ran in the April 7 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and finished 12th, ahead of only Determinant and Arawak. Even the two 100+ longshots finished ahead of him. I think he's a nice horse and really hope he likes Oaklawn better than Keeneland, but could be a vaccine against Derby Fever might help him more.
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Big Ten
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:25 am

Magnum Moon just so we could have two undefeated horses entered in the Kentucky Derby trained by Baffert and Pletcher to break the Apollo curse. I need the money to be spread around and an undefeated Baffert horse vs an undefeated Pletcher horses sounds too good to be true next to Scat Daddy son vs Scat Daddy son.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:19 pm

If you don't like betting the short prices of Magnum @ 8/5 or Solomini @ 2/1.....then the very lightly raced TENFOLD at an appropriate morning line of 10/1 for Asmussen/Victor Espinoza seems like the way to go to spice up your exactas and trifectas, he's got upside. Santana opts for the other Asmussen, Combatant, but Victor ain't chopped liver on a horse that might run on forever, good luck.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Spahny
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:45 am

stark wrote:If you don't like betting the short prices of Magnum @ 8/5 or Solomini @ 2/1.....then the very lightly raced TENFOLD at an appropriate morning line of 10/1 for Asmussen/Victor Espinoza seems like the way to go to spice up your exactas and trifectas, he's got upside. Santana opts for the other Asmussen, Combatant, but Victor ain't chopped liver on a horse that might run on forever, good luck.
Tenfold is a potential pace setter and could hold on to hit the board. His 2 wins are good but he still seems green and he would need to improve a lot to run with the favorite. Solomini is a candidate to move forward 2nd off. Combatant is in his 4th race of 2018 and has been chasing good horses. He could surprise and Santana stays with him over Tenfold. Quip could be getting good but that last race was a huge improvement. Think I'll let that one beat me. Can't play them all.

Key Magnum Moon for first then Solomini, Combatant and Tenfold to fill out the tri. Nobody will get rich on this race.
peeptoad
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:32 am

tri: 5,6/3,4/5,6
Spahny
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:45 am

I'm a little excited to bet 2 horses tomorrow.

I like City of Light in the Oaklawn Handicap. The way he has won at 7 furlongs he should stretch out nicely. I think he could be a force in the handicap division out west this year. We could use some better older horses and he looks like he's just getting started. 3-1.

The Gary and Mary West owned Ego Trip makes his stakes debut in the Northern Spur. This $600,000 Bernardini colt out of an Unbridled Song mare broke his maiden closing into a moderate pace last out. Another one trained by Asmussen. It's hard to tell right now but Ego Trip could be really ready to break out in his 3rd start. Luis Saez will ride. 8-1. Get it while you still can?

For the late pick 4 I am trying to figure out if I can beat Whitmore? Maybe Wynn Time from off the pace? If I play a pick 4 I will single Magnum Moon and then look for Baffert horses shipping to Oaklawn I guess. He does have Ike in the Northern Spur. Flavian Prat will ride.
MySaladDays
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:27 pm

Dream Baby Dream is a good longshot if you play that way

I have Quip running 3rd, solomini 2nd.

Not sure who I will put in first yet.
Izvestia
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:42 pm

I also like City of Light in the Oaklawn.

Quip and Magnum Moon in the Ark Derby- chalk!
MySaladDays
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:22 am

Izvestia wrote:Quip and Magnum Moon in the Ark Derby- chalk!
Don't HAVE to play it chalky. I can't bet Quip to win at 9/2 when he was 20-1 in tampa....THAT was the time to put the $ down on him.

IMHO the local horses have a shot here. Guess I'll check 'em all out in the paddock and decide then.
Izvestia
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:05 am

Tenfold is my longshot. If I was being forced to stay away from the favourites.
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:31 pm

All about Magnum Moon here. I think he's just better than the rest of these and I want to see him take a nice step forward going 9f. Aside from him I don't really like anyone in here- Solomini will probably finish second on back class alone, but I'd have to see some major improvement to even remotely consider him a Derby horse. Quip beat a couple of nice horses in Tampa Bay but he could not have possibly had a better trip. Not sure who else I could see sneaking onto the board, though... Combatant I guess? I'd be a little surprised if third/fourth place end up anywhere near the winner.
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Curtis
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:23 pm

I really like Solomini but I do think he’s the type that needs to race more and work less. I think Baffert knows that too which is why he wanted to run him in the San Vincente. I think the key to Solomini’s grinding style is to have him on the lead turning into the stretch, in fact if Prat can manage it, taking him to the lead from the gate might not be a bad idea. Solomini doesn’t have the turn of foot to navigate a lot of trouble but he throws down when directly challenged. Baffert being the trainer will kill the price, so unless an exotic bet makes some sense as the day wears on, I’ll probably just watch.
peeptoad
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:32 pm

I agree on Solomini. To me he's a grinder with a moderately high cruising speed. I'd love to see what he could do in the Belmont actually.
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Curtis
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 3:21 pm

peeptoad wrote:I agree on Solomini. To me he's a grinder with a moderately high cruising speed. I'd love to see what he could do in the Belmont actually.
I agree, if Justify isn’t going for the TC, that’s a very likely next out after either the Derby or a prep like the Peter Pan, depending of course on where his grinding gets him today.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:08 pm

In the G2 Oaklawn Handicap, which ran before the Arkansas Derby, last year's winner Inside Straight refused to leave the gate. Maybe he's Facebook or Twitter friends with Chautauqua. :P
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:46 pm

Pretty good win by the hunky Magnum Moon, but...what is up with the drifting out in the stretch? Hasn't he done that before? If he does that in the Derby, he will 1) cost himself the race, or 2) cost someone else the race when he runs into them. Which will also cost him the win. :P
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:52 pm

I'd love to see an updated Derby points list. If Combatant earned 10 points for his 4th today, that gives him 32. I think that leaves him just on the other side of the 'bubble' in 21st.
tcw
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:54 pm

A convincing win by MM, but the drifting out in the stretch is NOT what you want to see. With that said, he still managed to close in 12 seconds flat which is VERY good, especially going 9f.
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Personal Ensign
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:55 pm

What a finish! Magnum Moon wins the Arkansas Derby and goes into the KY Derby undefeated!
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people.
W. C. Fields



-Formerly LadyWeaver-
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