Derby Point Races 2018

peeptoad
Posts: 2670
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Tue May 01, 2018 11:33 am

I think the post draw may have killed my hopes for using Combatant as a viable longshot.
Kennedy
Posts: 1036
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Tue May 01, 2018 12:52 pm

peeptoad wrote:I think the post draw may have killed my hopes for using Combatant as a viable longshot.
Or it could be a way to keep his price up and force his hand on a new tactical style which may suit him.

Just a theory but as I've been watching this horse through the spring I've been seeing more and more parallels to Giacomo.

Both finished off the board in their first start and final start before the Derby.
Both won a maiden in their second start then never won again
Both hit the board in multiple graded stakes
Both had pre-Derby 7 starts
Neither closed any significant ground in their races and seemed steady but one paced
Both have a consistent rider who has been on board for all (or almost all) of their races
Both had a pretty steady cluster of speed figures in a range that put them on the fringe of the rest of the field.

In all his preps Giacomo was basically ridden as a stalker but he showed very little closing punch, actually no closing punch at all but he was always about 5 lengths off the lead and he'd kind of drift into the frame. There was nothing to really like about him. He was solid enough but never seemed to really do anything.

In the Derby he was more than 14 lengths back at the half and he came with a pretty good closing punch. The pace forced his hand and made him a closer and it turned out to be a real blessing.

Maybe the same can be true of Combatant. He hasn't been stalking in his preps but never really getting too far back and never really making any kind of major move. He's just kind of steady overall. Maybe post 20 makes him drop to the back and come with one run. If the pace is there it could work out. He probably was never good enough to sit a middle stalking trip and get a piece anyway
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Tue May 01, 2018 9:38 pm

Kennedy wrote:
peeptoad wrote:I think the post draw may have killed my hopes for using Combatant as a viable longshot.
Or it could be a way to keep his price up and force his hand on a new tactical style which may suit him.

Just a theory but as I've been watching this horse through the spring I've been seeing more and more parallels to Giacomo.

Both finished off the board in their first start and final start before the Derby.
Both won a maiden in their second start then never won again
Both hit the board in multiple graded stakes
Both had pre-Derby 7 starts
Neither closed any significant ground in their races and seemed steady but one paced
Both have a consistent rider who has been on board for all (or almost all) of their races
Both had a pretty steady cluster of speed figures in a range that put them on the fringe of the rest of the field.

In all his preps Giacomo was basically ridden as a stalker but he showed very little closing punch, actually no closing punch at all but he was always about 5 lengths off the lead and he'd kind of drift into the frame. There was nothing to really like about him. He was solid enough but never seemed to really do anything.

In the Derby he was more than 14 lengths back at the half and he came with a pretty good closing punch. The pace forced his hand and made him a closer and it turned out to be a real blessing.

Maybe the same can be true of Combatant. He hasn't been stalking in his preps but never really getting too far back and never really making any kind of major move. He's just kind of steady overall. Maybe post 20 makes him drop to the back and come with one run. If the pace is there it could work out. He probably was never good enough to sit a middle stalking trip and get a piece anyway
8-) giacomo did not have to run from the 20 hole. but Combatant is still on my list.
peeptoad
Posts: 2670
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Wed May 02, 2018 7:39 am

Thanks Kennedy! ;)
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Wed May 02, 2018 10:44 am

Derby record
year win place show 4th
1999.. 16 18 10 13
2000. 15 2 14 9
2001. 16 13 8 4
2002. 5 12 3 1
2003. 5 11 4 3
2004. 13 3 8 1
2005. 10 18 12 17
2006. 8 13 2 1
2007. 7 8 2 5
2008. 20 5 6 2
2009. 8 5 2 7
2010. 4 2 10 9
2011. 16 19 13 14
2012 19 6 5 13
2013 16 4 3 5
2014 5 17 4 20
2015 18 10 8 15
2016 13 11 5 14
2017 5 1 11 14
2018
8-) THINK ABOUT IT
stark
Posts: 4011
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Wed May 02, 2018 10:58 am

peeptoad wrote:
Kennedy wrote: Cool, I don't have much info on TF numbers historically as they relate to the Derby. But it is interesting to see how some horses float to the top when measured a variety of different ways.

How do the Timeform pace figs generally hold up? Do you find them more or less useful than BRIS?
I actually haven't been using TF long enough to give an accurate gauge of how they compare. Since DRF started including them in PPs and generally making some of the info more readily available I have started using them. For the late pace specifically they were similar to BRIS with a couple of exceptions, one being Justify. Justify scored I believe the highest (or maybe 2nd) LP BRIS, but was actually among the worst in the field for TF LP.

Just FYI....
Register @ DRF for FREE handicapping seminar with TimeformUS, today at 7pm eastern.
DRF's Triple Crown correspondent Jay Privman and TFUS's head figure maker Craig Milkowski join Peter Thomas Fornatale of the DRF Players' Podcast for a deep dive into the PPs of the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Wed May 02, 2018 12:22 pm

Now it is time to pick top for 16/5 with 5/18/10 with 10/8 /5 with 1/14/6

5 to win 8-)
stark
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Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Wed May 02, 2018 12:26 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:Now it is time to pick top for 16/5 with 5/18/10 with 10/8 /5 with 1/14/6
Just curious....how much does that superfecta cost?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Wed May 02, 2018 5:31 pm

stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:Now it is time to pick top for 16/5 with 5/18/10 with 10/8 /5 with 1/14/6
Just curious....how much does that superfecta cost?
$30.00 on $1.00 ;)
stark
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Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Thu May 10, 2018 10:36 am

Will there be a spreadsheet analysis for the Preakness Stakes?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Kennedy
Posts: 1036
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Fri May 11, 2018 3:20 pm

stark wrote:Will there be a spreadsheet analysis for the Preakness Stakes?
I'm not sure exactly what that refers to but if the question is "do people have as many stats, systems and detailed analysis about the Preakness as they do about the Derby?" then the answer is no :)
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Curtis
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Location: Monroe, WA
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Fri May 11, 2018 3:45 pm

Kennedy wrote:
stark wrote:Will there be a spreadsheet analysis for the Preakness Stakes?
I'm not sure exactly what that refers to but if the question is "do people have as many stats, systems and detailed analysis about the Preakness as they do about the Derby?" then the answer is no :)
It’s in reference to Big Lester, I mean Big Don, from OKC and his system.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Sun May 13, 2018 12:44 pm

Kennedy wrote:
stark wrote:Will there be a spreadsheet analysis for the Preakness Stakes?
I'm not sure exactly what that refers to but if the question is "do people have as many stats, systems and detailed analysis about the Preakness as they do about the Derby?" then the answer is no :)
answer is yes, my first rule on the Preakness is the horse on top at the mile an 3/16 in the derby will win or run second. the horse who will win or run second is a horse who is not respected and did not run in derby. ;) that your best play
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