Justify

User avatar
Ballerina
Posts: 3045
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:22 pm
Location: Chesapeake, VA & Saratoga, NY

Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:27 am

On Steve Haskin's FB page this morning.

"If you missed last night's Switching Leads, catch it on the archive and listen to breeder John Gunther talk about Justify and Vino Rosso as babies and how 5 vets turned Justify down at the sale."
User avatar
Ballerina
Posts: 3045
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:22 pm
Location: Chesapeake, VA & Saratoga, NY

Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:05 pm

Kennedy
Posts: 1034
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:26 pm

Here is a quote from that article
Derby entrants that rated on the lead — especially an easy lead — in their final prep have met with virtually no success on racing’s biggest stage.

Horses that led at each of the first two calls of their final prep, but lost ground (lengths) between those calls, are zip-for-30 in the Race for the Roses
I find this stat to be a hard one to verify. Firstly because in his article he used the 2nd and 3rd calls to compare ground loss instead of the 1st and 2nd and also because it's based on the premise that a narrowing lead between calls means that a horse is being "rated". Can't it also mean that someone behind you has decided to make a move?

Feels like an anomaly. It doesn't even make intuitive sense that rating in a prep is a bad thing. Rating is generally a positive tool in the belt.
stark
Posts: 3965
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:27 pm

Ballerina wrote:Oh ye of little faith

https://www.usracing.com/news/analysis/ ... ucky-derby
Not sure what Derek Simon's field of expertise is, but if an article like this really needed to be written why not tell the truth and list all 37 reasons, errr at least that's how many I'm up to in the past 5 minutes. Starting with a bad post position draw, bumped/herded out of the gate, saddle slipped, lost stirrups, checked steadied while wide, dropped whip, suicide pace duel..........
there was a better horse on any given day who ran the race of his life, it could happen.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
Posts: 3965
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:33 pm

stark wrote:
Not sure what Derek Simon's field of expertise is, but if an article like this really needed to be written why not tell the truth and list all 37 reasons, errr at least that's how many I'm up to in the past 5 minutes. Starting with a bad post position draw, bumped/herded out of the gate, saddle slipped, lost stirrups, checked steadied while wide, dropped whip, suicide pace duel..........
there was a better horse on any given day who ran the race of his life, it could happen.
Ohhh, and since it is the Derby he's talking about I forgot one of the more obvious reasons any horse could lose......jock misjudged the finish line! (if Shoemaker could do it, anybody can)
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
User avatar
Curtis
Posts: 809
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:17 am
Location: Monroe, WA
Contact:

Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:31 pm

stark wrote:
stark wrote:
Not sure what Derek Simon's field of expertise is, but if an article like this really needed to be written why not tell the truth and list all 37 reasons, errr at least that's how many I'm up to in the past 5 minutes. Starting with a bad post position draw, bumped/herded out of the gate, saddle slipped, lost stirrups, checked steadied while wide, dropped whip, suicide pace duel..........
there was a better horse on any given day who ran the race of his life, it could happen.
Ohhh, and since it is the Derby he's talking about I forgot one of the more obvious reasons any horse could lose......jock misjudged the finish line! (if Shoemaker could do it, anybody can)
Given the fact that early on in the article he refers to Justify as a chestnut “cold”, I’m not sure how much of the rest of it needs to be taken into account.

I remember in 1981, I was at the Derby sitting between the 1/16th pole and the wire. At the 1/16th pole, Sandy Hawley stood straight up in the stirrups on a Quack colt named Partez. It didn’t cost him the win as Pleasant Colony would have won anyway, but it probably kept Partez from holding off Woodchopper for second. If memory serves, Partez was a Lukas trainee. I’m sure Sandy got an earful from the Coach when he came back to unsaddle. DWL was wound a little tighter back in the day, not that he’s any too loose now.
User avatar
Ballerina
Posts: 3045
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:22 pm
Location: Chesapeake, VA & Saratoga, NY

Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:36 pm

User avatar
Big Ten
Posts: 664
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:01 pm

I still do think Justify is a little overhyped for what he has done so far. That doesn't mean I don't think he's going to win. I believe he will and Baffert's gets his 5th Derby trophy. I have money on the 76ers, Thunder, and Cavaliers in my NBA Futures. I have never been to any of those cities. I don't bet according to region. I bet now according to talent.

My previous mistakes with the Kentucky Derby was I based my picks according to odds which made me overthink my bets. That's why I watched a few Derby favorites beat me repeatedly. That's why even if I will hate playing the chalk, better to win something than lose everything trying to chase a better payout.

I think Justify can be a little overhyped and will be overbet again next month. That's not a bad thing. Betting public has been right the last five runnings. I'm betting him according to talent and some great intuition. Kentucky Derby might be the only race you can get Justify above double or nothing, even-money.

I read a ton of negative comments on BloodHorse about all these 3YOs including how some aren't hopping on the Justify hype train. Most rarely get it right being the contrarians. That's good. I don't necessarily want his odds to be that low and I much prefer uncertainty over predictability. More fun that way. They all have question marks.

103 - Bolt d'Oro (FrontRunner)
100 - Good Magic (BC Juvenile)
101 - Bolt d'Oro (San Felipe)
106 - Mendelssohn (UAE Derby)
107 - Justify (SA Derby)

http://www.drf.com/road-kentucky-derby

^ I'm not a Beyer guy but checking on that link, I didn't realize Bolt d'Oro won two stakes races with 100+ BSF. Shows you the quality of the horse but even more so with Justify who slowed down a little before drawing off by 3+ lengths in a matter of 2-3 strides. No Pletcher 3YO has hit 100 BSF yet.

I could do a Top 5 Derby list, but I have no plans betting the exotics this time. I could be all over the place like last year with Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, and many more. Going with my "one horse, one win bet" mantra this time. It looks extremely obvious to me who will win.

I want Magnum Moon to win the Arkansas Derby. Not Solomini or Quip. I want to see another undefeated 3YO who never raced at 2 try to break the Apollo curse. I want as much talented horses in the Kentucky Derby. I want Pletcher to be loaded and his horses betted on. Then I want to see Justify beat them all in three weeks.

2012 - I'll Have Another
2013 - Orb
2014 - California Chrome
2015 - American Pharoah
2016 - Nyquist
2017 - Always Dreaming
2018 - Justify?

For anyone who was kind of a contrarian in 2014 and 2015 when CC and AP won them or even the last two runnings and didn't like Nyquist and AD that much, time NOT to act cute and make that easy money with Justify. Possible six straight favorites winning the Derby and 5 out of 7 from California.

Unless Magnum Moon sets a track record or earns a 108 BSF in the Arkansas Derby today, it's Justify or bust for me. Only horse I fear is Mend and his competition is questionable. I just don't see Pletcher winning back-to-back Derbies with prep winners in the sub-100 BSF group vs a horse who has over 100+ BSF in all three starts of his career and soundly beat one who earned a 103 as a 2YO.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
User avatar
Squeaky
Posts: 730
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:29 pm

Sun Apr 15, 2018 8:37 pm

[flash=][/flash]
Ballerina wrote:On Steve Haskin's FB page this morning.

"If you missed last night's Switching Leads, catch it on the archive and listen to breeder John Gunther talk about Justify and Vino Rosso as babies and how 5 vets turned Justify down at the sale."
I just listened to this and was intrigued when John Gunther spoke about how they had a yearling half-brother to Justify that they felt was even bigger and more impressive looking than Justify. He didn’t mention who the mare was bred to in 2016- does any one know? Said they would not be selling him.
User avatar
Squeaky
Posts: 730
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:29 pm

Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:43 pm

Thanks to Mariasmon... the sire was Will Take Charge. I bet that colt is a stunner. One to keep an eye on. I wonder when he will be named?
User avatar
Diver52
Posts: 1593
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:44 pm
Location: Redlands, CA

Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:06 am

"Justified.". Or " Excuses. ".
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
User avatar
Squeaky
Posts: 730
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:29 pm

Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:53 am

I like Take the Stage
User avatar
Squeaky
Posts: 730
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:29 pm

Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:20 am

Where does it say that Justify is getting a bit change? Any recent updates from B.B. after the SA Derby? Thanks
peeptoad
Posts: 2665
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:27 am

Squeaky wrote:Where does it say that Justify is getting a bit change? Any recent updates from B.B. after the SA Derby? Thanks
It's mentioned in Privman's twitter feed, per Baffert. Maybe somewhere else too, not sure. Baff says he'll get a more "severe" bit for more control. A rubber ring bit.
User avatar
Squeaky
Posts: 730
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:29 pm

Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:30 am

Thanks Peeptoad-Wonder if this is because he looks like he is about to run off in his works? Or more control during the race?
stark
Posts: 3965
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:33 am

The unbeaten and lightly raced Justify, the current favorite for the Kentucky Derby on May 5, turned in his penultimate drill for the race early Saturday morning at Santa Anita, officially going six furlongs in 1:13 after breaking off at the five-furlong pole.

Justify, who started one length back of his workmate, was two in front at the wire after five furlongs that trainer Bob Baffert caught in 1:00.80. Justify, with Drayden Van Dyke aboard, continued to work to the seven-eighth's pole, and he galloped out seven furlongs in 1:26.80 on Baffert's watch.

"Looked good, didn't he?" Baffert said. "He's a machine."

Santa Anita clockers had Justify in 25 for his opening quarter, 37 for three furlongs, five furlongs in 1:00.80, and six in 1:13, meaning he went the final three furlongs in 36 seconds.

Justify will work once more at Santa Anita and is scheduled to arrive at Churchill Downs the week of the Derby.

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42002-justi ... -at-sa-too
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
User avatar
Squeaky
Posts: 730
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:29 pm

Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:38 pm

Looking good! I liked his gallop out- nice and strong and smooth lead change. Since he is listed as 3/3 for 6 fur time I wonder who had 1 and 2?
stark
Posts: 3965
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:44 pm

Squeaky wrote:Looking good! I liked his gallop out- nice and strong and smooth lead change. Since he is listed as 3/3 for 6 fur time I wonder who had 1 and 2?
Abel Tasman and Rayya


Juatify, they had him @ 7F
https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/just ... 21th-2018/
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
User avatar
Squeaky
Posts: 730
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:29 pm

Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:49 pm

Interesting Privman says 7 fur in 1:26.8 while XBTV says 1:25.8
User avatar
Ballerina
Posts: 3045
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:22 pm
Location: Chesapeake, VA & Saratoga, NY

Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:29 pm

Post Reply