Big Ten wrote: I do agree with Matt Corothers that there is quite a drop off in talent after the Top 5 with a mish mash of different horses. But if you focus on the top 4-5 betting choices, they are actually pretty consistent
Running 1-1/6th, and usually ONE 1-1/8th. And not at CD, which many horses find "quirky" even though it is a pretty fair track.
The problem with the Derby is that some horses who cross the finish line 1st or 2nd didn't know they would/could, the betting public didn't, and even the trainers really don't know.
I attach myself to capping it pretty eagerly, as a hobby, as a brain exercize, and because I enjoy this time of year, reading other people's great insights.
As a risk/reward ratio, it's actually a lousy race to spend $$ on sometimes.
so I don't take it too seriously.
That overhead shot from the sky, of Mine That Bird, barrelling past "top talent' horses like they were telephone poles rooted in the ground, and not even obstacles, really brings that home for me every year.
BTW, I am still stuck over a few horses, I think Gunnevera had a pretty terrible trip in the FL Derby, I am still trying to decide if I like him or IWC better, if anhybody wants to yak about it.