Arkansas Derby G1 Million Dollars

stark
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:34 am

1 Improbable (KY) 3/CL J L Ortiz 122B Baffert 8/5
2 Six Shooter (KY) 3/GL D Cohen 122P E Holthus 30/1
3 Omaha Beach (KY) 3/CL M E Smith 122R E Mandella 2/1
4 Tikhvin Flew (KY) Owner Link 3/CL T Baze 118S M Asmussen 30/1
5 Laughing Fox (KY) 3/CL R Santana, Jr. 118S M Asmussen 20/1
6 Gray Attempt (KY) 3/CL S Elliott 122W H Fires 8/1
7 Galilean (CA) 3/CL F Prat 122J Hollendorfer 10/1
8 Country House (KY) Owner Link 3/CL J Rosario 118W I Mott 12/1
9 One Flew South (KY) 3/CL C H Borel 118D F O'Neill 50/1
10 Jersey Agenda (KY) 3/CL R A Vazquez 118S M Asmussen 30/1
11 Long Range Toddy (KY) 3/CL J K Court 122S M Asmussen 5/1
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:13 pm

Just a hunch that there'll be enough "wiseguy" money to make OmahaBeach the betting favorite when the gates open.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Izvestia
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:10 pm

Omaha Beach has continued to blossom and looks fantastic but everyone loves Baffert, so I hope Improbable goes off as the favourite and OB can beat another Baffert favourite.
Nothing to go against OB here, so he’s my choice over Country House and Long Range Toddy.
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:46 pm

Galilean got quite a vote of confidence (or at least an investment in his future) from powerhouse Coolmore:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... n-galilean
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Curtis
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:57 pm

Izvestia wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:10 pm
Omaha Beach has continued to blossom and looks fantastic but everyone loves Baffert, so I hope Improbable goes off as the favourite and OB can beat another Baffert favourite.
Nothing to go against OB here, so he’s my choice over Country House and Long Range Toddy.
I can’t tell if you really like Omaha Beach or really, really want Improbable to run out?
stark
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:42 pm

The haters love to bet against Baffert for any reason they can find.

This time it's pretty logical as he's obviously not coming with the first string.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Curtis
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:32 pm

stark wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:42 pm
The haters love to bet against Baffert for any reason they can find.

This time it's pretty logical as he's obviously not coming with the first string.
If Improbable can win or place tomorrow, he’ll have earned it. I think he’d be better off going to the Preakness and Haskell instead of the Derby but despite of winning it all last year, I’ve got a hunch the connections won’t agree. Besides the real fun would be for Omaha Beach to win for fun and then sit back and watch either the Baffertites or the Haters head explode when Mikey makes his choice. Sign me up for that.😉
stark
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:51 pm

Does Mandella have an assistant that ships or does he go there all week himself?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Spahny
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:15 pm

I still like Galilean. He'll probably go off at around the 10-1 ML. Worth a shot.
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Curtis
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:47 pm

Spahny wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:15 pm
I still like Galilean. He'll probably go off at around the 10-1 ML. Worth a shot.
If he stays there or drifts up, I agree.
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Starine
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:59 pm

There is so much hype around Omaha Beach --most of it deserved-- that it's hard for me to imagine Improbable going favored.

Improbable gets blinkers and Galilean loses them.

I still haven't decided who I like best.
Izvestia
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:32 pm

Curtis wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:57 pm
Izvestia wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:10 pm
Omaha Beach has continued to blossom and looks fantastic but everyone loves Baffert, so I hope Improbable goes off as the favourite and OB can beat another Baffert favourite.
Nothing to go against OB here, so he’s my choice over Country House and Long Range Toddy.
I can’t tell if you really like Omaha Beach or really, really want Improbable to run out?
I like Omaha Beach plenty, and would love to see his connections win the Derby.
It’s not Improbable that I don’t like...
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Big Ten
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:56 pm

Obviously, I want to see #1 or #3 win.

Improbable with the outside and now the rail. I hope he gets better luck with the post position draw if he makes the Kentucky Derby. I don't know Jose Ortiz (age 25) too well, so I hope Mike Smith wins again.

Knowing my bad luck, Long Range Toddy catches them all at the end.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
MySaladDays
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Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:06 pm

stark wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:51 pm
Does Mandella have an assistant that ships or does he go there all week himself?
Mandella seems to be very hands-on. He was in the paddock on Thursday, while Omaha Beach was schooling in between races at Oaklawn.
I took some nice snaps on my phone.

During the Rebel, Mandella was standing around the paddocks, with the customers, then outside by the rail, a very humble and classy but IMHO reserved guy, not the type you run up to like you would Lukas and ask for an autograph, although I'm sure he would oblige.

Nobody is as hands-on as Larry Jones though. He is always saddling all his own horses, stretching out their front legs manually, etc. before races. :) He was like that before his injury, and still the same now, though he has a little bit of a limp now
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Curtis
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Sat Apr 13, 2019 3:06 pm

Izvestia wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:32 pm
Curtis wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:57 pm
Izvestia wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:10 pm
Omaha Beach has continued to blossom and looks fantastic but everyone loves Baffert, so I hope Improbable goes off as the favourite and OB can beat another Baffert favourite.
Nothing to go against OB here, so he’s my choice over Country House and Long Range Toddy.
I can’t tell if you really like Omaha Beach or really, really want Improbable to run out?
I like Omaha Beach plenty, and would love to see his connections win the Derby.
It’s not Improbable that I don’t like...
I know it’s not Improbable you don’t like. Unfortunately he still has to receive the negative thoughts and he’s but an innocent equine.
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Big Ten
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Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:48 pm

Looks like Omaha Beach's chances to win increases today.

That's basically why I decided to put money on him after he won the second Rebel. I expect Derby Day to be wet just like it is in Arkansas today. He broke his maiden in the slop.

I just hope OB doesn't get caught and he wins by several lengths. He could because Game Winner nearly caught him going shorter and then didn't exactly flatter OB losing in the SA Derby.

If Omaha Beach doesn't win, then I hope Improbable wins. I just don't know if he can handle the distance or the conditions. He needs the points though.

These so-called top 2019 Derby contenders would be probably rank only as high as 7th last year. If another longshot hits, it's really that bad and confusing. Another 2017 or 2011 but maybe worse.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Raven
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Sat Apr 13, 2019 5:57 pm

I like Gray Attempt on top with Improbable and Long Range Toddy
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Somnambulist
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Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:52 pm

I really like this one.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Big Ten
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Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:05 pm

Perfect result. Hallelujah! Finally ended my gambling losing streak.

I need Mikey to choose Omaha Beach over Roadster. The colt already beat both Game Winner and Improbable. I so badly want to watch Mandella win a Kentucky Derby.

The first sub-1:50 9F prep I've seen this year. The final furlong was a sub-13. I know it was in the slop but the 3rd place finisher was way back.

For next month, I want the exacta to be exactly like today with the same track conditions. Today's result was absolutely perfect for me.

Top 2
1. Omaha Beach
2. Improbable

Don't care for the rest. I'm not putting anymore money on the other horses. Those two are it.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Mylute
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Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:07 pm

I wonder if there's any particular reason Omaha Beach's tail is kept in a bob.
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