Kentucky Derby Top 5

Catalina
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:57 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:44 pm
No great surprise, but good that the drama wasn't prolonged. Honestly, the more I think about the SA Derby, the more I want to just toss everyone involved. I do think Omaha Beach will really need his ride to succeed in this race. Insert a joke about Geroux running interference on the rest of the field here.
Good grief, we've really been taken over by the twilight zone!!!
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Sparrow Castle
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:06 pm

Catalina wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:57 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:44 pm
No great surprise, but good that the drama wasn't prolonged. Honestly, the more I think about the SA Derby, the more I want to just toss everyone involved. I do think Omaha Beach will really need his ride to succeed in this race. Insert a joke about Geroux running interference on the rest of the field here.
Good grief, we've really been taken over by the twilight zone!!!
Twitter's all over it...

Joshua @barbaro1420
Replying to @flothejock @SeaBass912
Are you running interference for Improbable or Game Winner?
Catalina
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:44 pm

Sparrow Castle wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:06 pm
Catalina wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:57 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:44 pm
No great surprise, but good that the drama wasn't prolonged. Honestly, the more I think about the SA Derby, the more I want to just toss everyone involved. I do think Omaha Beach will really need his ride to succeed in this race. Insert a joke about Geroux running interference on the rest of the field here.
Good grief, we've really been taken over by the twilight zone!!!
Twitter's all over it...

Joshua @barbaro1420
Replying to @flothejock @SeaBass912
Are you running interference for Improbable or Game Winner?
Do you suppose the IRS would look at any profits from a Baffert win as a "long-term investment"?
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Big Ten
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:00 pm

Thank you, Mike Smith, for picking Omaha Beach. Saves me money. Win one for Dick Mandella! It's the right move. Omaha Beach is the now horse and who knows if it rains? I do hope Mike gets his mount on Roadster back this summer.

My wager stays put. Don't have to complicate it with a third wheel. I still will respect Roadster but I can't be betting every horse out there. Will only be focused on Omaha Beach and Improbable and that's it. If Roadster, Game Winner, or whoever else beats me, they beat me. Don't want to be all over the place with my wagers again.

At Mike's fine wine age, he can actually run the tables winning the Kentucky Derby for the next 3-5 years similar to what Calvin Borel did from 2007-2010.

2005 - Giacomo
2018 - Justify
2019 - Omaha Beach?

Mikey can win as many as 2-3 more Derby trophies in the next few years. He's too good to only have 2.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Sparrow Castle
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:38 pm

Catalina wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:44 pm
Sparrow Castle wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:06 pm
Catalina wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:57 pm


Good grief, we've really been taken over by the twilight zone!!!
Twitter's all over it...

Joshua @barbaro1420
Replying to @flothejock @SeaBass912
Are you running interference for Improbable or Game Winner?
Do you suppose the IRS would look at any profits from a Baffert win as a "long-term investment"?
You mean after the LA County DA's office or any of the Congressional hearings yet to come complete their investigations of SA racing?
tcw
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:06 pm

Now that Smith has chosen Omaha Beach, it further solidifies him as my top pick in the Derby. Seeing him alongside Improbable as the two of them entered the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, with Ortiz pushing on Improbable while Smith sat still on Omaha Beach, it was clearly evident that Omaha Beach was the more physically gifted, and might I add imposing, of the two. He truly is a beautiful specimen of a racehorse, and if I'm not mistaken I heard one of the TVG commentators mention something similar just before they loaded in his last race.
Tessablue
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:45 pm

tcw wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:06 pm
Now that Smith has chosen Omaha Beach, it further solidifies him as my top pick in the Derby. Seeing him alongside Improbable as the two of them entered the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, with Ortiz pushing on Improbable while Smith sat still on Omaha Beach, it was clearly evident that Omaha Beach was the more physically gifted, and might I add imposing, of the two. He truly is a beautiful specimen of a racehorse, and if I'm not mistaken I heard one of the TVG commentators mention something similar just before they loaded in his last race.
Physically, he does seem to be the horse with the biggest "it" factor in the Derby. A very impressive specimen.

I do think it's worth mentioning that jockeys are historically pretty bad at picking horses for this race. I don't like Roadster at all, and it's hard not to feel better about Omaha Beach after this news, but I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for sticking with Roadster in the wake of it. Recall the discourse just last year when Johnny V chose Vino Rosso over Audible, or back in 2013 when he chose Verrazano over Orb!

...okay, maybe just ignore his choices in particular in this race ;)
Catalina
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:27 am

Sparrow Castle wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:38 pm
Catalina wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:44 pm
Sparrow Castle wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:06 pm

Twitter's all over it...

Joshua @barbaro1420
Replying to @flothejock @SeaBass912
Are you running interference for Improbable or Game Winner?
Do you suppose the IRS would look at any profits from a Baffert win as a "long-term investment"?
You mean after the LA County DA's office or any of the Congressional hearings yet to come complete their investigations of SA racing?
Oh, after, naturally after!
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Big Ten
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:01 am

https://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-col ... 48614.html

2018 Justify - Mike Smith 

2017 Always Dreaming - John Velazquez 

2016 Nyquist - Mario Gutierrez 

2015 American Pharoah - Victor Espinoza 

2014 California Chrome - Victor Espinoza 

2013 Orb - Joel Rosario 

2012 I’ll Have Another - Mario Gutierrez 

2011 Animal Kingdom - John Velazquez 

2010 Super Saver - Calvin Borel 

2009 Mine That Bird - Calvin Borel 

2008 Big Brown - Kent Desormeaux 

2007 Street Sense - Calvin Borel 

2006 Barbaro - Edgar Prado 

2005 Giacomo - Mike Smith 

2004 Smarty Jones - Stewart Elliott 

2003 Funny Cide - Jose Santos 

2002 War Emblem - Victor Espinoza 

2001 Monarchos - Jorge Chavez 

2000 Fusaichi Pegasus - Kent Desormeaux 

1999 Charismatic - Chris Antley


^ Most jocks won it multiple times or the ones who won it once were HoFers. I don't see a Slew, Affirmed, or Bid standout in this crop where guys like Jean Cruguet, Steve Cauthen, and Ronnie Franklin can win the Derby simply by not falling off.

I think Omaha Beach can win the Kentucky Derby but the Preakness has become a graveyard for the favorites over the years. The trap race jewel. The spoiler. It would be OB's 3rd start in 5 weeks. The Preakness was wet in 2015, 2016, dryed out enough in 2017, and very wet and foggy in 2018.

So OB's experience on the slop could still be useful two weeks later but he could also be tired by then. The closest margin of victory for Justify was actually in the Preakness. I still believe Mike made the right choice. Speed is critical. Since 2014, the previous five Derby winners had tactical speed.

I'm rewatching the Santa Anita Derby and I would love to see another Baffert horse / SA Derby winner win the roses like last year but Roadster was still behind over 5 lengths after they ran 1:12+. He came on strong and I knew Game Winner would get caught by him but Omaha Beach still seems speedier.

I see Roadster more of a Travers winner. He develops the same pace as West Coast did. Roadster still hasn't won outside Cali yet. I personally don't care if we don't get another Triple Crown winner for awhile. I want to see these horses next year. This crop look slow to me but perhaps they're mostly late-bloomers.

I do like Game Winner. He is game, owns a win at Churchill, and Rosario has won the Derby before but this horse just doesn't look like he's improved. He was odds-on both times in his preps and he lost both times.

Omaha Beach, 5/1
Roadster, 6/1
Game Winner, 7/1
Improbable, 8/1
Maximum Security, 10-1

I think Omaha Beach, Game Winner, and Improbable sound like nice Derby winner names. I also like Bourbon War. Code of Honor is ok too. Not into Roadster, Maximum Security, Cutting Humor, Anothertwistafate, Tacitus, or Tax.

Hearing Tacitus and Tax in the same sentence is so painful to hear. I already hate the word tax! Justify is a great name for a Triple Crown winner. Great-looking horse with a great name. Wasn't misspelled either. ;-P I love the simple one-word names from WinStar.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:45 am

Big Ten wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:01 am
I'm rewatching the Santa Anita Derby and I would love to see another Baffert horse / SA Derby winner win the roses like last year but Roadster was still behind over 5 lengths after they ran 1:12+. He came on strong and I knew Game Winner would get caught by him but Omaha Beach still seems speedier.
If you insist on reporting the time of the race and the fractions, then you must in all fairness report on the condition of the track that day, some people refer to it as "track variants".
In simple terms, it was like being at the beach and that day the sand resembled that closer to the parking lot rather that down my water's edge. Which would you rather walk on? Prep races have been run on both types this year, but the raw times over the recent SA surface mean absolutely nothing by comparison to anything.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Curtis
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:31 am

stark wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:45 am
Big Ten wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:01 am
I'm rewatching the Santa Anita Derby and I would love to see another Baffert horse / SA Derby winner win the roses like last year but Roadster was still behind over 5 lengths after they ran 1:12+. He came on strong and I knew Game Winner would get caught by him but Omaha Beach still seems speedier.
If you insist on reporting the time of the race and the fractions, then you must in all fairness report on the condition of the track that day, some people refer to it as "track variants".
In simple terms, it was like being at the beach and that day the sand resembled that closer to the parking lot rather that down my water's edge. Which would you rather walk on? Prep races have been run on both types this year, but the raw times over the recent SA surface mean absolutely nothing by comparison to anything.
You know you’re calling someone out who never responds. I liken Big Ten to that woman with the monotone voice who calls me every so often to tell me the IRS is going to prosecute my wife and I.
stark
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:21 pm

He just needs a good teacher.
Needs a volunteer.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Curtis
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:24 pm

stark wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:21 pm
He just needs a good teacher.
Needs a volunteer.
He might bet......why would you want to go and do that?😉
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Big Ten
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Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:40 am

Brisnet's PPs completely changed my perspective.

I like this one particular horse from it and I would put him #1 right now over Omaha Beach. But I don't want to say his name. Don't want to hype it. I want his odds to stay in double digits. Pretty obvious if you check Brisnet's PPs which horse I'm alluding to. Brisnet doesn't really flatter the California horses at all.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:02 am

Big Ten wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:40 am
Brisnet's PPs completely changed my perspective.

I like this one particular horse from it and I would put him #1 right now over Omaha Beach. But I don't want to say his name. Don't want to hype it. I want his odds to stay in double digits. Pretty obvious if you check Brisnet's PPs which horse I'm alluding to. Brisnet doesn't really flatter the California horses at all.
I doubt this crowd here will hurt your odds, so let's be kind and provide them the PPs.
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploa ... Points.pdf

As for who your latest revelation is, I'm going to guess that you are aiming at Watchmaker/Privman's 10-1 odds on Tacitus.
Be warned, the famous east coast bias has deep pockets for one of their own and you won't see double digits come May 4th.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Blame
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Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:47 pm

Big Ten wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:40 am
Brisnet's PPs completely changed my perspective.

I like this one particular horse from it and I would put him #1 right now over Omaha Beach. But I don't want to say his name. Don't want to hype it. I want his odds to stay in double digits. Pretty obvious if you check Brisnet's PPs which horse I'm alluding to. Brisnet doesn't really flatter the California horses at all.
In a pool of tens of millions of dollars, pretty doubtful you hyping a horse on TBC is going to move the odds of a horse.
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Curtis
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Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:06 pm

Blame wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:47 pm
Big Ten wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:40 am
Brisnet's PPs completely changed my perspective.

I like this one particular horse from it and I would put him #1 right now over Omaha Beach. But I don't want to say his name. Don't want to hype it. I want his odds to stay in double digits. Pretty obvious if you check Brisnet's PPs which horse I'm alluding to. Brisnet doesn't really flatter the California horses at all.
In a pool of tens of millions of dollars, pretty doubtful you hyping a horse on TBC is going to move the odds of a horse.
I dunno, I see sleep deprivation in my future until I find out who it is.......
MySaladDays
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:29 am

I have some very specific pedigree type angles (not gonna go into it here) and I don't see Omaha Beach winning the Derby.

I like one of these horses to win: (nothing to do with exotics or bombers I will have in those)

Code of Honor - ITM FL Derby, Fountain of Youth, Champagne, and his maiden (2 G1s and 1 G2 + maiden) and working bullets consistently since mid December

Tax - 103, 102, and 101 Brisnet speed figs, all at 1-1/8th miles.

Improbable - but does he hate blinkers?

War of Will - ran 2 G1s, 2 G2s,and 2 G3s. Won 3 of them, placed in 1 of them. Only graded stakes he did really bad in was the one where he slipped at the start (LA Derby), one on Turf, and the Bourbon G3. Most experienced graded stakes horse in the race. Blew Owendale off the track in the Risen Star.

Game Winner - has highest thorograph patterns of any horse in race.

Win Win Win - despite bad numbers, has something around 5 or 6 KY Derby and Belmont winners (each) in his pedigree


Bomber for superfecta: Spinoff
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:48 am

Code of Honor - ITM FL Derby, Fountain of Youth, Champagne, and his maiden (2 G1s and 1 G2 + maiden) and working bullets consistently since mid December

IIRC, Noble Mission never ran on the brown stuff, but he was a good, game race horse and there is no better pedigree around...if you want to breed a turf horse. It would be surprising...but pretty cool...if Frankel's little brother ended up being a successful dirt sire here. ;) :D
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Charlie
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:23 pm

I'm really liking Ohmam Beach. I like how in both the Rebel and Ark Derby he refused to let a horse get by him. In my opinion, at no point in the stretch was Improbable even close to getting by.

I was high on War of Will, but his La Derby doesn't tell me anything and isn't the type of prep race you want going into a race like the Derby. So I have a hard time seeing him winning but can see him making top 5.

The Kentucky Derby always happens near finals and being in grad school means I have no time to study the other horses :( but I was also thinking Maximum Security and Tacitus
Last edited by Charlie on Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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