2019 Three-Year-Olds

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Miss Gladiator
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Tue Apr 09, 2019 4:21 am

I have no idea what to make of this crop so far. I thought the 2yo last year were absolutely terrible with some rare exceptions (notably Game Winner), but our current 3yo could be anything at that stage. I like Maximum Security and Tacitus the most, but it's just a feeling, not a conviction that they're the best of the lot. I like Roadster and Game Winner too, and I'm waiting to see what Omaha Beach does. The rest is just a big, uninspired question mark.

Anyone more interested in the fillies this year?
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Mylute
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Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:00 am

Miss Gladiator wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 4:21 am
Anyone more interested in the fillies this year?
I'd say I'm about equal in my interest in both.

Bellafina's a monster but I still don't think she's a safe bet for the Oaks. IIRC the last time she faced a big field she ended up fourth. The Oaks will be 13/14 competitors.
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Tessablue
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Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:14 pm

Something interesting I noticed today. These are the Beyer progressions of three current Derby contenders:

Horse A: 75-93-97
Horse B: 73-86-97
Horse C: 83-90-96

One is a favorite, one could still be a favorite, and one is a pretty major longshot. Who do you like?
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Curtis
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Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:00 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:14 pm
Something interesting I noticed today. These are the Beyer progressions of three current Derby contenders:

Horse A: 75-93-97
Horse B: 73-86-97
Horse C: 83-90-96

One is a favorite, one could still be a favorite, and one is a pretty major longshot. Who do you like?
Looks like homework after a class from Professor Beyer using Beyer on Speed as the text. I think I may know who two of them are but regardless, speed figures to me are highly suspect lacking context. Doesn’t mean it’s not a fun question, though.
stark
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Wed Apr 10, 2019 11:07 am

Improbable will add blinkers for the Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby, said his trainer, Bob Baffert. The mile and an eighth race will be run Saturday at Oaklawn Park.

Anybody know off hand if he's been working in them?
Santa Anita 4/5/2019 Dirt 6F 1:14.00 Handily 1/8
Santa Anita 3/30/2019 Dirt 6F 1:12.80 Handily 1/24
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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pointgivenfan
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Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:41 pm

stark wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 11:07 am
Improbable will add blinkers for the Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby, said his trainer, Bob Baffert. The mile and an eighth race will be run Saturday at Oaklawn Park.

Anybody know off hand if he's been working in them?
Santa Anita 4/5/2019 Dirt 6F 1:14.00 Handily 1/8
Santa Anita 3/30/2019 Dirt 6F 1:12.80 Handily 1/24
He had them on for his work on 4/5, at least. Don't know about the 30th.
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stark
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Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:08 pm

Thanks
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Sparrow Castle
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Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:13 pm

Coolmore Buys Into Galilean
The Coolmore contingent has purchased an interest in MSW Galilean (Uncle Mo) ahead of his impending start in Saturday’s GI Arkansas Derby.

“We are immensely gratified to have Coolmore join us in the ownership of Galilean as he looks to lock down a spot in the Kentucky Derby,” West Point CEO Terry Finley said.
More: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/co ... -galilean/
Tessablue
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:19 am

Another absolutely beautiful CD work from By My Standards: https://twitter.com/KentuckyDerby/statu ... 5067898886

A very interesting couple of preps this weekend. Does Baffert regret blinkers-on after drawing the rail? It looks like the weather is going to be atrocious so perhaps sticking to the front along the rail is the best option, but there's a surprising amount of speed drawn into the race and I'm not so certain that Improbable wants 9f to begin with. Omaha Beach is the obvious choice with the mud form and the probable stalking trip, but I wouldn't be surprised if Country House clunks up into the top three off a quick pace. Also woudn't be surprsied if Long Range Toddy hangs further back from the outside and gets clear sailing in the stretch.

Meanwhile, the Lexington has some interesting horses. I love Anothertwistafate and think he's the obvious winner, but Sueno has a chance to back up the form of the Louisiana Derby, and Zenden was tremendous in the Tampa Bay Derby, a race which was pretty well validated last week. I want Twist in the Derby so I want him to win here, but perhaps he could win in a workmanlike way so that nobody notices he's actually the best finisher in the field?
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Curtis
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:42 am

Tessablue wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:19 am


Meanwhile, the Lexington has some interesting horses. I love Anothertwistafate and think he's the obvious winner, but Sueno has a chance to back up the form of the Louisiana Derby, and Zenden was tremendous in the Tampa Bay Derby, a race which was pretty well validated last week. I want Twist in the Derby so I want him to win here, but perhaps he could win in a workmanlike way so that nobody notices he's actually the best finisher in the field?
I don’t root against horses so I hope he does as well as he can, but I hope Anothertwistafate doesn’t make the Derby. I don’t see him doing anything if he does and I’d be shocked if they didn’t go in the Preakness. I don’t want to begrudge the barn a Derby horse, I see Blaine Wright a lot out at EMD each year, but I think in the long run the horse would be better off not going the Churchill.
Tessablue
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:04 pm

Curtis wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:42 am
Tessablue wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:19 am


Meanwhile, the Lexington has some interesting horses. I love Anothertwistafate and think he's the obvious winner, but Sueno has a chance to back up the form of the Louisiana Derby, and Zenden was tremendous in the Tampa Bay Derby, a race which was pretty well validated last week. I want Twist in the Derby so I want him to win here, but perhaps he could win in a workmanlike way so that nobody notices he's actually the best finisher in the field?
I don’t root against horses so I hope he does as well as he can, but I hope Anothertwistafate doesn’t make the Derby. I don’t see him doing anything if he does and I’d be shocked if they didn’t go in the Preakness. I don’t want to begrudge the barn a Derby horse, I see Blaine Wright a lot out at EMD each year, but I think in the long run the horse would be better off not going the Churchill.
Interesting, is there a reason why you think he'd be any worse off in the Derby compared to the rest of the field? He'll have more bottom than most of them, and I think his runstyle is perfect for staying out of trouble. Genuine question because I know pretty much nothing about the connections.
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Curtis
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:08 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:04 pm
Curtis wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:42 am
Tessablue wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:19 am


Meanwhile, the Lexington has some interesting horses. I love Anothertwistafate and think he's the obvious winner, but Sueno has a chance to back up the form of the Louisiana Derby, and Zenden was tremendous in the Tampa Bay Derby, a race which was pretty well validated last week. I want Twist in the Derby so I want him to win here, but perhaps he could win in a workmanlike way so that nobody notices he's actually the best finisher in the field?
I don’t root against horses so I hope he does as well as he can, but I hope Anothertwistafate doesn’t make the Derby. I don’t see him doing anything if he does and I’d be shocked if they didn’t go in the Preakness. I don’t want to begrudge the barn a Derby horse, I see Blaine Wright a lot out at EMD each year, but I think in the long run the horse would be better off not going the Churchill.
Interesting, is there a reason why you think he'd be any worse off in the Derby compared to the rest of the field? He'll have more bottom than most of them, and I think his runstyle is perfect for staying out of trouble. Genuine question because I know pretty much nothing about the connections.
He’d probably finish in the top 10 if he went but is that a reason to go? I don’t like that they have to run tomorrow to get enough points. Maybe had they gotten more serious and changed jocks before Sunland they wouldn’t need to run tomorrow. Sueno needs to win too so it won’t be easy. I don’t talk to Blaine a lot but I say hello to him now and then—if and when someday I get an open stall, I’d love to take care of Alert Bay—he’s a good guy and his father is also a good trainer. For me if you can’t argue soundly that your horse is a shoe in for the Super, you’re better off sitting it out. He could get lucky and finish up there but I could just as easily see him 9th or 10th. Blaine May never get a better chance though. Glad it’s not my choice.
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Sparrow Castle
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:42 pm

Curtis wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:08 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:04 pm
Curtis wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:42 am


I don’t root against horses so I hope he does as well as he can, but I hope Anothertwistafate doesn’t make the Derby. I don’t see him doing anything if he does and I’d be shocked if they didn’t go in the Preakness. I don’t want to begrudge the barn a Derby horse, I see Blaine Wright a lot out at EMD each year, but I think in the long run the horse would be better off not going the Churchill.
Interesting, is there a reason why you think he'd be any worse off in the Derby compared to the rest of the field? He'll have more bottom than most of them, and I think his runstyle is perfect for staying out of trouble. Genuine question because I know pretty much nothing about the connections.
He’d probably finish in the top 10 if he went but is that a reason to go? I don’t like that they have to run tomorrow to get enough points. Maybe had they gotten more serious and changed jocks before Sunland they wouldn’t need to run tomorrow. Sueno needs to win too so it won’t be easy. I don’t talk to Blaine a lot but I say hello to him now and then—if and when someday I get an open stall, I’d love to take care of Alert Bay—he’s a good guy and his father is also a good trainer. For me if you can’t argue soundly that your horse is a shoe in for the Super, you’re better off sitting it out. He could get lucky and finish up there but I could just as easily see him 9th or 10th. Blaine May never get a better chance though. Glad it’s not my choice.
I would love to see Blaine and his team in the Derby with this horse, depending on how he finishes and then comes out of the race Saturday. And Peter Redekop is a major owner in B.C. who's been involved in the sport for many decades, and races his horses up and down the coast. Even just the experience of bringing a contender who earns the chance is a dream come true for all of us. The Preakness would be fantastic, but the Derby...well it's the Derby...nothing like that experience! Go Anothertwistafate!!!
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Curtis
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:56 pm

Sparrow Castle wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:42 pm
Curtis wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:08 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:04 pm

Interesting, is there a reason why you think he'd be any worse off in the Derby compared to the rest of the field? He'll have more bottom than most of them, and I think his runstyle is perfect for staying out of trouble. Genuine question because I know pretty much nothing about the connections.
He’d probably finish in the top 10 if he went but is that a reason to go? I don’t like that they have to run tomorrow to get enough points. Maybe had they gotten more serious and changed jocks before Sunland they wouldn’t need to run tomorrow. Sueno needs to win too so it won’t be easy. I don’t talk to Blaine a lot but I say hello to him now and then—if and when someday I get an open stall, I’d love to take care of Alert Bay—he’s a good guy and his father is also a good trainer. For me if you can’t argue soundly that your horse is a shoe in for the Super, you’re better off sitting it out. He could get lucky and finish up there but I could just as easily see him 9th or 10th. Blaine May never get a better chance though. Glad it’s not my choice.
I would love to see Blaine and his team in the Derby with this horse, depending on how he finishes and then comes out of the race Saturday. And Peter Redekop is a major owner in B.C. who's been involved in the sport for many decades, and races his horses up and down the coast. Even just the experience of bringing a contender who earns the chance is a dream come true for all of us. The Preakness would be fantastic, but the Derby...well it's the Derby...nothing like that experience! Go Anothertwistafate!!!
I’ll root for him if they go. There’s just so many of these guys with threads in the Whatever Happened To, section.....
Tessablue
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:07 pm

Interesting, thank you for the response! Personally I really liked his attitude of "if we don't finish well in the Lexington we don't deserve to be in the race anyways," so I suppose we'll have to see how everyone feels after tomorrow. I genuinely think has a great chance in the Derby based on his past few races, but we'll see how he does tomorrow and I understand wanting to see the horse thrive past May.

Love to hear about the smaller connections. Sounds like he might get some screentime if he makes it to the big race.
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Sparrow Castle
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:46 pm

Yeah, I get what you're saying, Curtis. Forgot to tell you I think it'd be great if Alert Bay ends up in your care. He's had the winter off and I'm not sure what their plans are with him.

I hope it helps that Anothertwistafate has been doing most of his training and racing on that more easy-on-the-legs Tapeta surface. This isn't a cheap horse. These guys seem to know what they're doing, and it does all depend on Saturday.
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:25 pm

This isn't a cheap horse.

No kidding. He's from Scat Daddy's last crop, so if he wins any of the TC races, he is going to be very, very valuable as a stallion.
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Curtis
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:48 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:25 pm
This isn't a cheap horse.

No kidding. He's from Scat Daddy's last crop, so if he wins any of the TC races, he is going to be very, very valuable as a stallion.
Are we saying cheap or inexpensive because I don't know anyone who is implying he's cheap.
Izvestia
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Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:36 pm

Sparrow Castle wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:46 pm
Yeah, I get what you're saying, Curtis. Forgot to tell you I think it'd be great if Alert Bay ends up in your care. He's had the winter off and I'm not sure what their plans are with him.

I hope it helps that Anothertwistafate has been doing most of his training and racing on that more easy-on-the-legs Tapeta surface. This isn't a cheap horse. These guys seem to know what they're doing, and it does all depend on Saturday.
I really like Alert Bay - been following him since his BC Derby. Would love news on him!
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Mylute
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Sat Apr 13, 2019 5:59 pm

Owendale won the G3 Lexington Stakes with Anothertwistafate in second and Sueno in third.

Don't remember the point tallies. I'm guessing Fate doesn't get in?
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