2019 Belmont Stakes

carole
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Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:32 pm

So Tax is going to run after all.
tachyon
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Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:06 am

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... ese-racing

That's a wonderful article.
And that's the way we always respect Bloodhorse. 8-)
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Mylute
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Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:41 pm

Post positions!

1. Joevia (Shanghai Bobby)
2. Everfast (Take Charge Indy)
3. Master Fencer (Just A Way)
4. Tax (Arch)
5. Bourbon War (Tapit)
6. Spinoff (Hard Spun)
7. Sir Winston (Awesome Again)
8. Intrepid Heart (Tapit)
9. War of Will (War Front)
10. Tacitus (Tapit)

Tapit is the only sire since Man O War to sire 3 Belmont winners. He has three sons running this year.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
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Charlie
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Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:52 pm

That's a pretty cool stat about Tapit, and I didn't know that only he and Man O War held that record.

Question, is the post real important for a race like the Belmont, or how the track is configured?
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Mylute
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Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:09 pm

Charlie wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:52 pm
That's a pretty cool stat about Tapit, and I didn't know that only he and Man O War held that record.

Question, is the post real important for a race like the Belmont, or how the track is configured?
I've heard the rail is a bit deeper at 'Big Sandy'. I've also heard the outside (don't know if that means post 14 or just the widest one of that year) isn't optimal because it's added distance around the turns, which in a marathon race, isn't optimal (especially if your horse might be distance challenged).

This is just from memory though.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
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Mylute
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Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:02 pm

Ok so, not that I don't like the horse and think he has no chance, quite the contrary, but is Tacitus the ML favorite just because of Tapit?
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
stark
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Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:05 pm

Only one horse over 15-1?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BaroqueAgain1
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Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:27 pm

Tapit is the only sire since Man O War to sire 3 Belmont winners.

And if it hadn't been for American Pharoah, Tapit's son Frosted would have made it four. :P ;)
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Starine
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Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:40 pm

I liked Tax going into the Derby because I really liked his foundation and router's pedigree. So you'd think I would be all over him for this race but no. After the so-so work and now a stone bruise... I'll pass.


War of Will and Tacitus are obvious contenders, but I might go with Intrepid Heart for the upset. You won't find a better pedigree for the Belmont and, as much flack as I give Pletcher for his record in the Derby, he has a very good tally in this race. I think his running style also fits well here.
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Sparrow Castle
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Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:09 am

From the WaPo by Stephen Whyno | AP, most positive article I've seen in a long time. If you can't access WaPo articles, it's on the AP and other media outlets picked it up https://www.apnews.com/538b5a4d889e4e22b472174b7fcc8582

Belmont features one of the safest racing surfaces in US
The home of the Belmont Stakes is laps ahead of other U.S. racetracks when it comes to keeping horses safe.

Belmont Park and other tracks around the state of New York have had some of the fewest horse deaths in the sport. Amid the 26 horse deaths at California’s Santa Anita Park since late December, the Belmont will be run Saturday on a track that national observers say is among the safest and best maintained in the country.

A major reason for the high praise is the attention given to Belmont Park’s dirt and turf track surfaces by Glen Kozak, senior vice president of facilities and racing surfaces at the New York Racing Association.

“They’ve just turned the corner and not all the racetracks have kind of turned that corner where they feel like this is how they manage it,” said Dr. Mick Peterson, executive director of the Racing Surfaces Testing Laboratory in Lexington, Kentucky. “And that’s really where they’re in the lead.”

Belmont Park’s 2018 fatality rate of 0.98 per 1,000 starts is significantly under the national average of 1.68, and there hasn’t been a fatal breakdown in the Belmont, the third race of the Triple Crown, since 1993. Compare that with a 2.42 fatality rate at Churchill Downs, the home of the Kentucky Derby, and 2.33 at Pimlico Race Course, which hosts the Preakness.

Tyler Gaffalione, who won the Preakness aboard War of Will , has ridden at Belmont Park 66 times and raves about the surfaces being consistent. The right mix of clay, silt and moisture helps horses run evenly across the track.

“I love the track at Belmont,” Gaffalione said. “Every time I’ve gone there it’s been very consistent. It feels like every horse gets over it well. It plays fairly. You can be in front. You can come from behind. I think they do a tremendous job.”
More: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... 39253a721e
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Sparrow Castle
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Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:33 am

Horseplayers Should Support Special Pick Six
With eight Grade 1 races offering more than $6.5 million in prize money on Saturday, there is no doubt that Belmont Park hosts the world’s most lucrative and prestigious racing this weekend. These highly competitive races will attract plenty of support through wagering, but a unique opportunity, new to the Festival, deserves added attention.

The New York Racing Association will offer a special two-day pick six wager in connection with the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. The bet, which spans six graded stakes races across Friday and Saturday, carries a $0.20 minimum wager and a takeout rate at just 15%, the lowest takeout available in North America at this price point for a non-jackpot wager with a mandatory payout.

NYRA’s traditional $2 pick six pool holds a 15% takeout on days in which there is no carryover – days when the pool size is likely its smallest. Churchill Downs offered a two-day pick six across the Grade 1 races of the Oaks and Derby cards, also with a 15% takeout, but kept a $2 minimum (six tickets hit five of six and each received $67,936 from a pool of $479,561).

This weekend’s special wager, combining high-quality stakes races with an affordable minimum investment at a small takeout, is a highly attractive option for players with any budget.

"In my many conversations with gamblers, this is exactly the opportunity that real rank-and-file horseplayers say they want: a chance to wager on a great quality product with affordable pricing," said Peter Thomas Fornatale, the host of the In the Money Players' Podcast (which receives sponsorship from NYRA). “It’s an added benefit to be able to get more coverage on the bet through the lower increment without having to sacrifice equity at the expense of an unneeded and unwanted jackpot element."

The industry is sustained by betting handle. The more handle generated, the more times the takeout cycle renews and the more the industry is funded – more money for purses and taxes.
More: https://racingthinktank.com/blog/horsep ... l-pick-six
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Mylute
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Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:16 am

Really bummed because I have to be at work all day Saturday and won't get home until maybe a few minutes before the Belmont post. I will DVR.

I'll have to stay off SM all say so I won't see who won what.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
stark
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Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:32 am

Sparrow Castle wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:33 am
Horseplayers Should Support Special Pick Six
I wonder how many horseplayers not named Crist or Serling hit a Pick6 at least once a year?

In this day and age, not so sure we need to support the most exotic of all wagers, whereas churn in the other wagering pools seems more important, at least to me.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Mylute
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Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:05 pm

As far as pedigrees go Sir Winston looks like a Belmont horse: by Awesome Again out of an Afleet Alex mare, and he also has Affirmed on the dam side.

It would be nice for Awesome Again to have a Belmont winner since he's pensioned.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
BaroqueAgain1
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Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:34 pm

Checking for TV coverage, I see that NBCSN doesn't start its racing program until 11:30 AM Pacific, with regular network NBC picking it up at 1 PM Pacific. That means that NBCSN doesn't start showing the racing from NY until 2:30 PM Eastern, when I presume a bunch of races have already been run. :shock:
Is there any other network (besides TVG, which I can't get) showing the earlier races from Belmont? Thanks.

ETA: Looks like I'm going to miss the Easy Goer, with Alwaysmining and Outshine; the Just a Game, with Rushing Fall, Daddy Is a Legend and Beau Recall; and the Ogden Phipps, with Midnight Bisou and Come Dancing. Phooey.
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Raven
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Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:03 pm

Mylute wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:05 pm
As far as pedigrees go Sir Winston looks like a Belmont horse: by Awesome Again out of an Afleet Alex mare, and he also has Affirmed on the dam side.

It would be nice for Awesome Again to have a Belmont winner since he's pensioned.
I second that!
You will soon break the bow if you keep it always stretched ~Faedus~
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TouchOfGrey
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Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:58 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:34 pm
Checking for TV coverage, I see that NBCSN doesn't start its racing program until 11:30 AM Pacific, with regular network NBC picking it up at 1 PM Pacific. That means that NBCSN doesn't start showing the racing from NY until 2:30 PM Eastern, when I presume a bunch of races have already been run. :shock:
Is there any other network (besides TVG, which I can't get) showing the earlier races from Belmont? Thanks.

ETA: Looks like I'm going to miss the Easy Goer, with Alwaysmining and Outshine; the Just a Game, with Rushing Fall, Daddy Is a Legend and Beau Recall; and the Ogden Phipps, with Midnight Bisou and Come Dancing. Phooey.
Would you be able to download the NYRA Now app? You can watch the track feed there.
BaroqueAgain1
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Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:16 pm

Thanks for the suggestion, although I tend to be App-phobic. :P ;)
Izvestia
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Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:00 am

I like Tacitus, I’m a huge fan of Close Hatches.
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Sparrow Castle
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Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:43 am

Mary @MaryEllet
2h2 hours ago
Mary Retweeted Sue Morris Finley
From kill pen to Keeneland. It’s been quite the journey for the little Quarter Horse! Fox is team Master Fencer 🇯🇵
#マスターフェンサー #KeenelandFox

Sue Morris Finley @suefinley
Thanks @MaryEllet for sharing Fox's story with us for this @theTDN video. BFF to Master Fencer in Saturday's @BelmontStakes.
Video: https://twitter.com/suefinley/status/11 ... 1963759616
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