Kentucky Derby Selections

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Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:01 pm

Final selections. Playing Omaha Beach hard to win with exactas on top of the other 4, hoping Tax or Code of Honor gets up there for a price to complete the exacta. Obviously think the races at Oaklawn and Gulfstream were just better than all the other preps. Tossed War of Will with that post because you can't bet everything. Omaha Beach or bust.

1) Omaha Beach
2) Improbable
3) Code of Honor
4) Maximum Security
5) Tax
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Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:41 pm


1 War of Will, 20-1

2 Tax, 20-1

3 By My Standards, 20-1

4 Gray Magician, 50-1

5 Improbable, 6-1

6 Vekoma, 20-1

7 Maximum Security, 10-1

8 Tacitus, 10-1


9 Plus Que Parfait, 30-1

10 Cutting Humor, 30-1

11 Haikal, 30-1

12 Omaha Beach, 4-1

13 Code of Honor, 15-1

14 Win Win Win, 15-1

15 Master Fencer (JPN), 50-1

16 Game Winner, 5-1

17 Roadster, 6-1

18 Long Range Toddy, 30-1

19 Spinoff, 30-1

20 Country House, 30-1


Best Kentucky Derby post position draw ever for me! And Roadster gets the winless #17! I don't have to worry about him anymore! The Baffert horse that gets the best post is the only one I have money on. Lucky me.

I'm picking #7 to win just like year.

Top 5
#7 Maximum Security
#12 Omaha Beach
#8 Tacitus
#5 Improbable
#16 Game Winner

Again, best Derby Draw Day ever for me! And I thought Justify fans like myself were real lucky last year when he got #7. This is even better because every horse I have money on has a favorable post! And my main rivals who can kill my win tickets gets the auxiliary gate!

If I had to do the odds based on this draw -
Omaha Beach, 4-1
Maximum Security, 5-1
Tacitus, 7-1
Game Winner, 8-1
Improbable, 10-1
Roadster, 11-1

I actually think Maximum Security should be the favorite. He's undefeated. He has won all his starts by a combined 38 lengths. He has triple digit speed figs in both Beyer and Brisnet. Omaha Beach lacks in the latter.

MS knocks are Luis Saez is inferior to Mike Smith. He didn't exactly beat the top horses in Florida. He's also a May 14th baby which still makes him technically 2. So it's understandable if Omaha Beach is the fav.

Still, Maximum Security shouldn't go off as 10-1. I can see him go under 7-1 by post time. He belongs at least among the Top 3 betting choices. And I find Tacitus just as good as Game Winner. I can see him go off at 8-1 or lower. Tacitus should have 7-1 Audible odds.

I'll have no money on #16 & #17 ftw. Two overbet horses thanks to Baffert. I moved Improbable up over Game Winner and Roadster simply because the #5 post is an extremely favorable one like #7 and #8 are.

How I see the superfecta finish -
1. Maximum Security
2. Omaha Beach
3. Tacitus

4. Improbable (or random longshot like Tax)

Whatever happens in the super, I'm winning $450-$500 as long as #7 or #12 win. That's all I care about. I might put $20 to win on Tacitus as a win saver but my confidence with Maximum Security and Omaha Beach is really high already. I still have some money on Improbable. May not need to with Tacitus.

Wagers
Maximum Security, 11 x $45 = $500
Omaha Beach, 16 x $28 = $448
Improbable, 11 x $25 = $275
Tacitus, 8-1 (probably) x $25 = $200

My Tacitus bet will probably be the only live bet I'm making that day. I don't feel I'm going to lose this race. My confidence level is on par with Justify last year. This draw really boosted it. Not too overconfident. Anything can still happen. I won't forget 2005, 2009, and 2011.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Kennedy
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Fri May 03, 2019 3:45 pm

For me the major questions leading into any Derby are “What will be pace be?” and “What is the level of quality?” So I’m going to try to lay out my thoughts in those terms.

Pace makes the race as the saying goes and I do think the withdrawal of Omaha Beach leaves the race in an interesting spot. I think he was the classiest speed horse in the race but now there really is a lack of pace here and there is a major danger that they go slow. Maximum Security may get his dream trip again.

When I think about the question of how good the race is overall I think for me there are clearly 6 horses who look more classy than the others and are most likely to stay in some type of elite level stakes company beyond the Derby if they stay healthy. They are Maximum Security, Game Winner, Tacitus, Roadster, Improbable and Code of Honor. I think everyone else in this race is a bit of a reach in terms of the class factor. Doesn’t mean they can’t win but I think they’re not as classy as these 6.

This TC prep season has mostly been dominated not by favorites but by horses taking their turns having a good day. Baffert emerged from 2018 with 2 undefeated G-1 winning 2yo’s and managed not to win a single race with either of them. I think that what this race lacks is any really good closers. I think the power base is with the stalkers so it’s all about working out that trip. I feel this tips the balance for Maximum Security because he holds the tactical cards. I’ve been trying to put my finger on what I really dislike about all the classy stalkers in this race and I think it’s just that they all seem ordinary. Take all 5 stalkers that I mentioned and look at all the Beyer Speed figures from their last 2 races. In 10 total starts the different in figs is just 8 pts (from 91-99) Every horse just seems to run about the same race. They’re all fine and any could win but I just get the feeling that they’ll either get dominated by a horse with a higher ceiling right now like Maximum Security or they’ll be susceptible to the outsider.

For me the outsider scenario has about an equal chance to Maximum Security strolling away from the field. Remember when Mine That Bird won? The favorite had scratched out. Baffert was left with the top choice but his charge was a bit lukewarm. The track came up sloppy and maybe the worst horse in the race just bolted. I think that this might be the kind of race that lends itself to it. I’m not sure who to key in my crazy result scenario but War of Will, Spinoff, Gray Magician, Country House and Tax are the ones I’d look at for that type of alternate reality result. They’ve all got major problems but they’ve all showed different types of glimmers in the past.

For the purpose of a single selection for me I think it has to be Maximum Security because I think he is the one horse of quality that seems most likely to get his trip. I think his figures stand above the rest and certainly has the appearance of having a higher ceiling since no horse has ever gotten near him. I do think there is potentially a fragility there. In many ways he seems like the least experienced horse in the race so I have the most questions about him doing what he seems capable of doing. So for me it’s one of those cases where I think he will win or miss the frame entirely.

Pick
Maximum Security
Kennedy
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Fri May 03, 2019 3:52 pm

Horse By Horse Thoughts

By My Standards
I think he could win and all of his numbers and stats make him look like a good wise guy kind of play. He’s got some figures of the big players but the price of a longer shot. He feels trendy and slightly under the radar but I’m going to let him beat me. I think he already had his day. I think the Fair Grounds is his track and he’s not likely to appreciate a wet track.

Code of Honor
I find it hard to get a line on this horse. I feel like he just runs in spots. Sometimes you’ll get a good effort and other times you won’t. He’s probably likely to threaten the bottom places but I don’t think pace and traffic will play into his favor at all. I know he’s not going to drop out of the back of this field but it feels like he doesn’t get going soon enough and I think the race will belong to others with more initiative but he might be the best play if you think the pace is going to collapse.

Country House
I think I have the same eyes as everyone else. You probably need to use him in the super but you’d be a bit surprised if we saw anything better than that from him. He’s steady and consistent, Giacomo was and he won but he also got a legendary pace setup which I don’t think is coming for this guy. Still most people will be rooting hard for him in the final 100 yards to fill out the bottom of their ticket and I can certainly see him getting 4th.

Cutting Humor
Maybe I should have more of an open mind but I’m full out against this horse. I don’t think he’s the Pletcher to have here even though he comes in with a prep win. The Sunland Derby was a weak race and he happened to be the best on that day. I just don’t see much for him. For me he is the most likely entrant to avoid the announcers eye altogether and never get his name mentioned.

Game Winner
I feel many Derby plans will rise and fall based on what you do with Game Winner. He’s the 2yo champ and he’s Bob Baffert’s main hope. I think he might also be the favorite at post time but for me he’s hard to take. An off track is a major question for him and the wide trip is a likely outcome. I know we all made excuses for him in the Rebel, where all things considered I think he ran well but he went backwards in the SA Derby and I just can’t take him off of that race. I respect him a lot but I’ll try to beat him. I don’t think he’s finishing his races well enough to last the long run in here. I’m not sure I want to drop him out entirely though. 3rd or 4th are still highly possible.

Gray Magician
I’ve gone back and forth on him as a wildcard or a straight up toss and I think I could listen to arguments for both sides. I don’t think he is just a useless longshot. I think he’s a horse with some talent that his connections have struggled to get out of him. It’s a long long reach in this spot but he might be a horse that has a good day eventually. He’s the super bomber that I like the most but he’s probably the 18th or 19th best on form.

Improbable
I like Improbable and I think he has talent but I really do think that this horse is meant for shorter distances. He’s a bit short bodied and he looks like a miler to me. He might have the best turn of foot in the race but I feel like he isn’t a true stayer. When Long Range Toddy ran him down and then he failed to get in front of Omaha Beach despite being poised I think it was a bad sign and I’m not high on his chances here. I think the final furlong will find him out even if he manages to use his quickness to get near the front. However I do think he’s a horse that will still be competing at the G-1 level once the Triple Crown in over and most of them won’t. I see him in the top 6 but no better than 4th

Long Range Toddy
He probably isn’t as bad as his race in the Arkansas Derby so I expect him to run better than that but if he runs 8th I think that’s good for him. Maybe it was the off track last time but then he’s likely getting an off track here. I’m having a hard time seeing what his best angle is. He’s not going to be able to sit and press and I don’t think he wants to make one run. He’s got some quickness for a nice move at some point in the race but I don’t think he can sustain a run. I think he’ll spend the whole race in a mediocre position.

Master Fencer
I just don’t see it. He’s not even really a good horse in Japan. He hasn’t looked great while here. He’d be a major surprise for me. Total toss

Maximum Security
He’s a dangerous horse for the others because he has :45 speed but :48 patience. He also closes out his races very quickly. What I don’t like about him is that untested quality. He’s only been at GP, he’s only had one two turn race. I’m not a big fan of the horses he beat. He’s a risk of running very poorly but he’s also the best horse that is most likely to get exactly what he wants. Major win contender.

Bodexpress
What do you do with a maiden whose last 2 Beyers combined are actually the 7th best in the field. He’s good enough to win a race but probably not this race. He’s not the worst entrant though but I do worry that he’s not got the right mentality as evidenced by his 5 loses when he clearly has talent. I think from the outside post and the off track it’ll be safe to toss this guy.

Plus Que Parfait
I should probably have more of an open mind about his chances of hitting the frame. He ran well in a stakes race at CD in the slop. I think he performed well in the UAE Derby but unlike some others and specifically Gray Magician whom he beat, I have the distinct impression that we’ve seen what he can do on a good day. I don’t think he has a ton of buried form or untapped potential. I think he’s barely a G-3 level horse and will struggle to remain in stakes company. I guess I wouldn’t dissuade others from using him underneath for a clunk up into a placing but he’s not for me.

Roadster
I think Roadster is a trap horse and I’m definitely not in. For me he’s a total toss. Maybe I’m wrong about this because the track surface at SA was totally redone but my reading of the SA Derby was that it wasn’t a good race. It’s not that the horses were so bad from an overall perspective but I think they ran poorly. Maybe it should make me question and toss the race but for Roadster it’s really all we have to go on. His career has been brief and fleeting and I just don’t think he’s as good as the others and he doesn’t seem robust enough to win a race like this.

Spinoff
This is a super talented horse that is an absolute must use for me. His breeding is great, he’s always been meant for good things and I think health has kept him in the background. He’s got long odds here and a tough outside post but I think he’ll handle the off track really well and he should be potentially able to avoid getting hung out since there really isn’t any speed to his direct inside for about 12 post positions

Tacitus
I feel like there are good reasons to love this horse and I should see them but I’ve struggled to really get on board with him. However I think the case is strong. He and War of Will are the only horses who have won 2 route stakes races this year. Everyone saw how he overcame the trouble last time out which was a big plus. He set a stakes record. There is clearly something in this horse. The breeding is there, his connections are great but my struggle with him is that he’s just a touch bland for me. He’s not that fast, he’s not that good at closing. I feel like I’m wanting to see this horse as a powerful finisher and he just isn’t that. He’s good and I’ll use him defensively but I don’t love him. I won’t be surprised if he wins I also think it would be about right if he were 6th.

Tax
For some reason I have really wanted to love this guy all along. There is something sneaky good about him. I love the way he looks physically. He’s got this nice solid build and he looks like a galloper and yet he actually has quite a bit of pace and finishing seems to be his biggest problem. I’m not a trainer but I would have thought that at some point he’d step up beyond the steady diet of 4f works but I have to assume his trainer knows how to get him fit. His workout form seems to be in a favorable spot. It’s hard for me to see him winning but I don’t mind using him in the mix.

Vekoma
He’s my early favorite to run dead last. I just don’t see him getting the type of trip he wants. I can’t see him staying at all and the slop is a question mark. I know his breeding says he’s the best for the slop in the race but he’s a very distinct paddler in his action and I’m not sure that really plays well on a slick or deep surface. I’m pretty negative on him

War of Will
I really like this horse but it’s so hard to make a case for him. He is a good presser and when he’s feeling good he runs with a reckless abandon that I just love to see. He almost looks wild as he coils his neck and blasts to the front. But his upside really isn’t that high. I think he is the most likely alternative to Maximum Security as the early leader because he likes to get in there and the post may force his hand. It might not be such a bad thing to be in front though. I think he’ll be fading late but he’s worth a flyer to hit the bottom of the frame.

Win Win Win
Every Derby seems to have one horse that can grind out a performance that is better than expected. Most people are settling on Country House or Win Win Win for that slot. I’m flip flopping a lot on this horse because I think he’s shown enough in his races to get a piece but the worrying thing for me is that he was borderline electric in sprints and much more subdued in routes. I know he had that fantastic work where he swept by Tacitus but I think that just shows he’s got that really nice kick that is potentially most effective at shorter distances. I’d use if I wanted to go really deep but I don’t think he’s the right one to grab those bottom places in the super.
Kennedy
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Fri May 03, 2019 5:02 pm

I'm quite terrible at structuring any sort of exotic tickets but the horses I'd want to use in a super are as follows

Horses to use
Maximum Security
Tacitus
War of Will
Spinoff
Code of Honor
Country House
Game Winner
Improbable
Gray Magician
Tax

Horses to Toss
Vekoma
By My Standards
Cutting Humor
Long Range Toddy
Master Fencer
Bodexpress
Roadster
Plus Que Parfait
Win Win Win
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ElPrado2
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Fri May 03, 2019 6:13 pm

I know this will excite everyone!

Einstein, the African Grey Parrot, picked War of Will! It's right on you tube now. I'm sure you are all so excited!

You mean you're not? :lol:
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Palace Malice
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Fri May 03, 2019 6:27 pm

Piglets Predict the 2019 Kentucky Derby :lol:

https://youtu.be/tnrMg-KGZG8
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Northport
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Fri May 03, 2019 6:56 pm

ElPrado2 wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 6:13 pm
I know this will excite everyone!

Einstein, the African Grey Parrot, picked War of Will! It's right on you tube now. I'm sure you are all so excited!

You mean you're not? :lol:
I am very interested in what Einstein has to say. Even though I disagree.
weeeeeeeee
luvsgeldings
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Fri May 03, 2019 7:30 pm

well I would be happy if Einstein was correct about the result tomorrow - although... I am waiting to see who will be the puppy pick tonight on the Fallon show - doesn't he usually have a cute group of pups 'pick' the next days Derby winner?
Tessablue
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Fri May 03, 2019 7:39 pm

I've had an atrocious couple of weeks, so here's some therapeutic much-too-detailed Derby analysis.

1. War of Will

What to like: Well, pace is everything and this horse will be going to lead as long as he breaks. With Haikal out, his task is a little easier, and there's a chance the rest of this field disrespects him and leaves him alone on the lead. He'll save ground and the rail is often the place to be at Churchill on wet tracks, so he could get an ideal trip if nobody goes with him. We didn't get to see much out of him in his last start, but he has shown some talent and his price will be right if you think he can improve on his earlier efforts. For whatever it's worth, he did break his maiden over the slop at Churchill.
What not to like: He got nothing out of his last prep, his post is terrible, he's unlikely to end up loose on the lead, and his prior wins weren't actually very fast or very good. The Lecomte and Risen Star form has not held up particularly well, and he's light on figures. He has yet to truly run 9f and will likely have to attempt 10f under duress. And if he doesn't break, he's done.
Ideal trip: Breaks like a shot and rides a golden rail with zero pressure or respect from his opponents.
How's the pedigree?: Well, I can see why they started him on turf. Kind of a classic speed on top/ stamina on bottom Derby pedigree, nothing to knock besides how turfy it is.
Least-surprising finish: Last but entered in the Preaknes five minutes after crossing the wire.

2. Tax

What to like: By some standards, he's sneakily one of the fastest horses in the field. Tax is consistent, tough, and pretty handy. He showed a lot of heart in the Withers and may not have been at his best in the Wood. He has a lot of experience at 9f and the ability to lay anywhere his jockey needs him to be. If he steps up off of that Wood win and saves ground all the way, he could be right there, and his pedigree suggests he will thrive at 10f. Shockingly for a horse who has been talked up a lot by handicappers, he has been completely ignored in the early betting. If you like him, go get him.
What not to like: His figures are good, but I don't know how much I buy them. The form of the Withers is questionable at best, although he did have extenuating circumstances in that race, and he fell into an absolutely perfect trip in the Wood Memorial after bothering his chief rival early. It felt like he should have offered more resistance in that race, and I think talent is a question here. You also don't particularly want to see a horse get passed in their last prep, and he could get swallowed up by the field if he doesn't establish position early.
Ideal trip: Hugging a golden rail at the front of the second flight of horses, tipping out to get a jump on the rest of the field turning for home.
How's the pedigree?: Loaded with stamina and turf influences. AP Indy underneath bodes well for his mud chances.
Least-surprising finish: 5th-8th. Honestly, I was planning on tossing him, but at his current odds he's an extremely appealing play underneath.

3. By My Standards

What to like: On Beyers and Brisnet, his last race was one of the fastest in the field. He may even be faster than his figures indicate, because in both of his past races he ran faster than older stakes horses on the same card and found himself in the middle of a minor speed figure controversy. His final eighth in the Louisiana Derby was fast, far faster than the average historical winner of the race, and he closed that well after taking dirt and stalking the pace along the inside. The form of that race has held up nicely- Sueno came back to run a good third in the Lexington, and Country House was beaten a very similar margin by Omaha Beach in his next start. By My Standards is handy and unafraid to split horses, and he is improving with leaps and bounds in every race. If he takes to 10f and improves yet again, he can absolutely win this race. He has also been working like a monster at Churchill- whereas good works don't make a horse faster, they can serve to validate the improvement of a horse who already appears to be on the upswing. Does 2+2=4 in this case?
What not to like: He has only run that fast once, and he could revert to his mean after his last performance. If he does, he'll run nowhere. It's asking a lot to expect this horse to improve for the fourth time in four races. Much like Tax, he could end up midpack if he doesn't break well, and it must be noted that he received an excellent inside trip in the La Derby. He could be a cut below here and his pedigree, at least on the surface, suggests that the final eighth will be his undoing.
Ideal trip: The exact same as Tax's, although I think he wants to have dead aim on the leader at the 1/8th pole.
How's the pedigree?: On first glance, bad. On second glance, still pretty bad. However, Goldencents is an unproven stallion and brilliant milers have been very successful Derby sires. His damsire has an AWD of <6f which is kind of incredible, but his dam could route and he has Secretariat lurking a bit further back underneath. His pedigree is almost functionally identicla to Audible's, and Audible ran well in this race last year. I think his performances thus far override his pedigree, but I can't begrudge people's hesitation on this front.
Least-surprising finish: Top 7. His odds are currently terrible, however.

4. Gray Magician

What to like: He's got four legs and a tail. And he doesn't mind riding on planes!
What not to like: He's very slow and he's sweated out quite badly on the track in recent days. And whe n I say very slow, I mean very slow. His top beyer is around an 83. It would be a Mine That Bird-type miracle of he did anything in this race.
Ideal trip: All of the other horses politely agree to stop before the finish and let him pass.
How's the pedigree?: Another young sire so hard to make any solid judgments here, but overall it reads like a miler pedigree.
Least-surprising finish: Midpack

5. Improbable

What to like: The current favorite among the Bafferts in the betting, just as everyone expected! I actually think his early play is very interesting, because this is the Baffert I ended up liking best as well. He's a big-bodied horse who hasn't quite had his way in either start this year, but his last race showed that he has a certain amount of versatility and he'll keep closing regardless of how much mud he eats. If you liked Omaha Beach, it's hard not to respect this guy, and perhaps he would have run better in his last without those blinkers winding him up before the start. He's one of the few horses who has truly shown brilliance in this field, and his best race is perfectly capable of winning this one. Prior mud form is also a plus.
What not to like: His briliance has dulled a bit as he has stretched out (but would we still be saying that if Omaha Beach had scratched from the AK Derby?) and it's all over if he works himself up again before the start. The blinkers on/blinkers off saga is disquieting, as is the fact that he'll be ridden by his third jockey in three starts. His recent works have been good but uneven, and shouldn't he have been better in the Rebel, when he ran wide but still got passed late by a horse who does not seem to be very good? No horse in the field has given as many mixed signals as this one.
Ideal trip: I actually think he'll show some speed and press from the start. Laying third or fourth then making the rest of the field catch him in the stretch.
How's the pedigree?: I've heard a lot of bad things about it, but are people forgetting the damside exists? Sure his sire is City Zip, but Barbaro's damsire was Carson City. He's got AP Indy right there underneath and his third dam produced Hard Spun. Improbable's pedigree is perfectly fine for 10f.
Least-surprising finish: Anywhere, really. But I see him up there in the top 6.
Last edited by Tessablue on Fri May 03, 2019 8:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Somnambulist
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Fri May 03, 2019 7:40 pm

On paper there is really not a lot of speed here. I think most of these horses want to sit off it a little bit. On an off track I find speed to then be quite dangerous.

If it breaks down like that, IMO, it's Maximum Security's race to lose. He has drawn fabulously to sit right off War of Will as long as he breaks well. I don't have many reservations about him getting the distance. I find myself like him, War of Will and Vekoma. Can't ignore Roadster.

I can't make heads or tales with Improbable. His last was great but there is something off in my gut about it.

No point in looking for a big amount of value here, I think.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Tessablue
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Location: Boston

Fri May 03, 2019 8:38 pm

6. Vekoma

What to like: He has early speed, and he clearly has a lot of talent. He ran very well in the Nashua in just his second start, and he has showed some versatility and handyness in his races this year. He's lightly raced and could take a step forward in here, and a step forward makes him highly competitive. He could press a slow pace but also showed in his last race that he isn't terribly disadvantaged by a fast one.
What not to like: Although the pace was quick, the Blue Grass was run over a track that was very kind to speed, and he did not come home stongly at all. He has not taken a step forward off that Nashua, and he's not a strong finisher at all. In combination with his questionable pedigree, he gives the impression of a horse who will not thrive at 10f.
Ideal trip: Pressing a slow pace or relaxing a few lengths off a quick one. Needs to show another gear at the top of the stretch.
How's the pedigree?: Not great at all. Candy Ride was brilliant at 10f, but his offspring have generally preferred shorter. Speightstown underneath will not help him in that final eighth.
Least-surprising finish: I think he's neat, but sadly I think he's also a last-place contender.

7. Maximum Security

What to like: Well, he's currently favored in the betting somehow, so clearly there's something to like here. This horse is, on figures, the fastest in the field, and he has more speed than all or most in here. He set a slow pace in the Florida Derby but came home very strongly and may have run an even stronger figure with a less-ridiculous pace. He's undefeated, there's clearly a deep well of talent here, and he coudl just run off with it if he breaks well and gets his trip. Undefeated and the fastest horse in the race, he fits the mold shared by many recent winners of the race.
What not to like: I said Improbable has the most mixed signals in the field, but this guy is giving him a run for that title. I don't particularly care what price he debuted at, but his trainer has repeatedly suggested that there was a reason for it and it's clear this horse isn't the soundest in the barn. He is not physically impressive, he has been training primarily out-of-sight in Florida, and his "works" are two-minute licks- he hasn't truly breezed in months. The Florida Derby was handed to him on a silver platter, he has never actually set a very fast pace, and there's almost no chance he gets a similar trip here. He has not faced a field like this and may hook up with War of Will early. His one two-turn trip was not very representative of a routing experience, and he may hit a wall on that second turn.
Ideal trip: War of Will doesn't break and he winds up alone on a very slow pace. The rest can't catch him.
How's the pedigree?: Not fashionable, that's for sure. Yet another young sire and a pedigree that could be anything. Not a selling point or a huge plus. He does have a really pretty tail female line, with influences from Sir Gallahad and Omar Khayyam!
Least-surprising finish: Literally anywhere. I'm leaning back of the field, however.

8. Tacitus

What to like: His glorious, wonderful, unbeatable, spectacular mind. This horse has an astonishing mind for a lightly raced 3yo. In his third start, a stakes race first off a layoff and his first start against winners, he took a ton of dirt and rallied boldly between horses to win going away. His Wood has received plenty of press so I won't touch on it much here, but he showed the improvement he needed to show after some brutal early adversity. I absolutely love a horse who gets knocked around early and still finishes with his ears pricked. He's not a great work horse, but he's a delight to watch in his gallops because his ears are always either forward or swiveling back to listen to his rider. I think he's handier than his previous races have indicated, and he might be surprisingly close early. Everything about his races- and pedigree!- suggests he will enjoy 10f, and you rarely see a horse who checks as many mental- and performance-based boxes in this race. Also, Bill Mott!!
What not to like: He hasn't quite shown the brilliance of some of the others in here, and it's worth noting that he has received some very favorable paces in his past two starts. He's unlikely to get a meltdown in this race, and he could get bogged down in the middle of the pack if he can't get separation from it early. He'll also be at the mercy of that early pace- I could see an effort much like Frosted's valiant-but-too-late rally into a slow pace in 2015.
Ideal trip: Leading the second flight, maybe five or six lengths back. Grinds on home throughout the stretch and outstays everyone.
How's the pedigree?: It's just so beautiful. Last year, speaking about Hofburg, Bill Mott said something like "I love Juddmonte pedigrees." Same, Bill. Same.
Least-surprising finish: Top 3, and in my opinion the most likely winner of the race. I'm surprised and intrigued to see that the early betting- and the doubles pool- appears to agree with this analysis.

9. Plus Que Parfait

What to like: He has that relentless griding style that sometimes picks up a piece in this race. He obviously has some quality if he took down a race on World Cup Day, and his loss last year to Signalman- on a sloppy track at Churchill- wasn't too bad. He might enoy the mud and just plod home for a check.
What not to like: Much like Gray Magician, he's just slow. Very slow. His career best race might land him tenth here.
Ideal trip: Enjoys the mud, finds a good seam in the track, and runs down a quick pace.
How's the pedigree?: No surprise he started on turf. Not much to knock- solid top to bottom and filled with quality routers. I was also happy to find Racing Room in his pedigree- a name that will be familiar to anyone who has watched Dr. Fager's world-record mile over and over.
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field.

10. Cutting Humor

What to like: His Sunland Derby was pretty good, he took back off a very quick pace and had enough left to hold off a nice finisher in Anothertwisafate. His late pace figures are good, he's had some very sharp works down in Florida and his recent gallops have made a good impression. Pletchers who work well before the Derby often run well.
What not to like: So far, he hasn't been fast enough and it doesn't look like he'll enjoy 10f based on both his pedigree and his performances. Johnny V jumped off him (a Pletcher!) for Code of Honor. His owners brought the wrath of the racing gods upon them when they screwed over Corey Lanerie, don't need to say much beyond that.
Ideal trip: He has some pace on him and could figure pretty prominently. May be able to track WoW and Max Sec early while still saving ground.
How's the pedigree?: Tenuous. His sire won't do him any favors at this distance, and there's some sprint speed infused throughout his tail female line.
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field. Never anger the racing gods.
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Mylute
Posts: 3407
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:20 pm
Location: Alabama

Fri May 03, 2019 9:07 pm

luvsgeldings wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 7:30 pm
well I would be happy if Einstein was correct about the result tomorrow - although... I am waiting to see who will be the puppy pick tonight on the Fallon show - doesn't he usually have a cute group of pups 'pick' the next days Derby winner?
Yes! I think the puppies actually picked Pharoah in 2015.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
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Palace Malice
Posts: 77
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 7:03 pm

Fri May 03, 2019 11:45 pm

Palace Malice wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 6:27 pm
Piglets Predict the 2019 Kentucky Derby :lol:

https://youtu.be/tnrMg-KGZG8
No puppies this year, it's the piglets! I linked it above :)
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Gemini
Posts: 103
Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:26 pm

Sat May 04, 2019 12:29 am

There comes a time when one must realize that overanalysis is counterproductive and only results in more confusion.

I've liked Tax since last year's Remsen. I've liked Win Win Win since January. So I'm going with these two. Then I'll throw in War of Will, Game Winner, and Plus Que Parfait for some exotics.

Most likely I'm dead wrong, but at this point I just want to sit back and enjoy the show.
Apollo
Posts: 353
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:05 pm

Sat May 04, 2019 5:44 am

Going to stick with Roadster simply because nobody in this field scares me. I don't want to make a concession from my original pick, due to nothing but late fear

Roadster
Maximum Security
Improbable
Game Winner
By My Standards

It all comes down to the matchups for me anyway.

Roadster drew lots of matchup money on Friday, despite his parimutuel odds higher than the morning line. Every matchup moved in Roadster's direction and some by 15-30 cents. The wise guys who play into the matchups often have differing opinions than the ones who prefer traditional wagering.
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ThreeMustangs
Posts: 1752
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:37 pm
Location: Florida

Sat May 04, 2019 10:16 am

I have to play Roadster because our Lab had successful tie-back surgery on Monday.
Izvestia
Posts: 4045
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Sat May 04, 2019 11:07 am

This race lost its lustre with Omaha Beach out... so without explanation because I am heading for a hike (in no particular order):

Tacitus
Vekoma
Tax
Game Winner

Safe trips for all.
luvsgeldings
Posts: 977
Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2014 6:18 pm
Location: SoCal

Sat May 04, 2019 11:26 am

agree with everything you just said Izvestia... except for the Game Winner part. and if GW or Roadster or Improbable win, I will be taking a hike AFTER the race. a really really really long one.

best of luck to all today with your wagering - and of course, as always, safe trips for all of the jockeys and horses in all of the races. that will make for the best Derby day.
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ElPrado2
Posts: 2194
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:45 pm

Sat May 04, 2019 12:13 pm

Of course, the fact that another grey haired trainer had his entire barn come down with a virus 32 seconds after the testing standards were announced as changed beginning with Saratoga and not win a race the entire meet unless he shipped out of state is completely irrelevant. And he usually rules Saratoga.
He did manage a few wins at GPW.
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