2019 Kentucky Oaks

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Mylute
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Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:27 am

Lot of talk about the Derby of course, but the Oaks is upon us as well.

Who does everybody like? Bellafina is a monster of course but I also feel like there's room for an upset.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
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Izvestia
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Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:41 pm

Bellafina is my pick, based on her dominance this year, but the Oaks is an odd race - as in I never get it right. I also like Lady Apple and Liora, and if Dunbar Road gets in I might throw her a couple bucks because she looks like she could be any kind.
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Blame
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Sat Apr 27, 2019 6:32 pm

Both races have standouts if you ask me. Bellafina, like Omaha Beach, looks really hard to bet against. I will be using Restless Rider underneath.
stark
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Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:27 am

1. Out for a Spin, 15-1 (Dallas Stewart/Irad Ortiz Jr.): She scored in Keeneland’s Ashland (G1) at 52-1, reminding that you should never completely count out a Stewart longshot. But they don’t often strike twice. The numbers show a huge jump last time.

2. Chocolate Kisses, 20-1 (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione): She won two straight heading into the Ashland but never got involved that day. The good news: Given all the need-the-lead types in this race, the pace could set up for a deep closer like Chocolate Kisses.

3. Lady Apple, 20-1 (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.): She made it to the races in April of 2018, raced four times and went to the sidelines after August. In the new year, Lady Apple is 3-for-3, looking much improved when she shot up the rail to win Oaklawn Park’s Fantasy Stakes (G2).

4. Bellafina, 2-1 (Simon Callaghan/Flavien Prat): Detractors will point to her defeat last fall at Churchill Downs, but she had an excuse that day, being in reproductive heat. More concerning if you’re going against the favorite is that she has registered higher figures at distances shorter than nine furlongs.

5. Flor de La Mar, 20-1 (Bob Baffert/Joel Rosario): Second to Bellafina in the Santa Anita Oaks (G1), this lightly raced Godolphin runner has performed well, but only on fast tracks. In case of rain Friday as predicted, she’s one to fade.

6. Positive Spirit, 30-1 (Rodolphe Brisset/Manny Franco): It looks like we can draw a line through that last-place finish at Fair Grounds to open her season. That’s sandwiched between some respectable performances at the Oaks distance, including a win in the Dec. 1 Demoiselle (G2).

7. Jaywalk, 8-1 (John Servis/Javier Castellano): Brilliant at age 2, she was defeated in both her starts to open this season. A third last time in the Ashland (G1) might have been better, however, than it looked given she factored in a hot pace scenario.

8. Motion Emotion, 15-1 (Tom Van Berg/Mike Smith): This filly fits Smith by bringing certain speed to the race, but there looks to be plenty of that signed on. She was tracked down and finished second in consecutive stakes at Oaklawn leading into this.

9. Liora, 20-1 (Wayne Catalano/Channing Hill): Shades of Farrell, who also ran for Coffeepot Stables in the 2017 Oaks. Liora owns a gritty Grade 2 win over this track and, notably, in the slop. Rain could be an equalizer after three defeats this season.

10. Champagne Anyone, 6-1 (Ian Wilkes/Chris Landeros): A change of equipment — blinkers on — seemed to make the difference when this daughter of Street Sense went from Grade 2-placed to winner of the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) with a pace pressing trip.

11. Jeltrin, 15-1 (Alexis Delgado/Luis Saez): She was the 51-1 winner of Gulfstream’s Davona Dale (G2) when Jaywalk flopped as an odds-on favorite to open her season. Jeltrin hasn’t raced since then and will make her two-turn debut in the Oaks.

12. Street Band, 15-1 (Larry Jones/Sophie Doyle): Serengeti Empress’ issues in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) set this filly up for her first graded stakes victory. Jones has won this race three times, while Doyle is seeking to become the second female jockey to take it.

13. Serengeti Empress, 8-1 (Tom Amoss/James Graham): Dominant at times, including with a Grade 2 last fall win over this track by 19 1/2 lengths, the filly has a major question to answer after she dropped from the lead in her final prep due to bleeding through Lasix.

14. Restless Rider, 6-1 (Kenny McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.): She takes a unique route into this one with McPeek, by design, prepping Restless Rider just once after a Grade 1-winning 2-year-old season. She ran a credible second in the Ashland and figures to improve.

Dunbar Road (5-1) and Point of Honor (30-1) are both listed as also eligibles and could gain entry into the field before the 9 a.m. ET Friday scratch deadline in that order of preference. Dunbar Road, a Chad Brown trainee, was the Gulfstream Park Oaks runner-up in just her second career start. Point of Honor, fourth in that race, won Tampa Bay Downs' Suncoast Stakes two back.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... itions_123#
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
peeptoad
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Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:04 am

Restless Rider
Jeltrin
Champagne Anyone
Bellafina
Happy Endings
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Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:34 pm

1. Out for a Spin, 15-1 (Dallas Stewart/Irad Ortiz Jr.): She scored in Keeneland’s Ashland (G1) at 52-1, reminding that you should never completely count out a Stewart longshot. But they don’t often strike twice. The numbers show a huge jump last time.
Regarding her numbers jump last out, Brisnet Speed figures seem to indicate she has a habit of doing that.
Nov 2018 she ran a 72
Dec 2018 she ran an 82
off until Feb 2019 when she ran a 76
March 2019 she ran an 88
April 2019 she ran a 97

It doesn't appear that a jump of 10 or so points means she will automatically regress. It also doesn't mean she will jump another 10 points either, but no one in that field has run faster than a 97 Bris number this year except Bellafina who ran a 98 in January, but has regressed in each race since. So Out For A Spin's numbers have been going in the right direction and if she improves by just a few points, she could be right there. Restless Rider who also ran a 97 is just coming back, so she could indeed improve in second off a layoff. But she had plenty of chance to pass Out For A Spin in the Ashland and couldn't do it. Jaywalk's hot pace scenario is the same pace that Out For A Spin was involved in. Didn't seem to bother the latter, so I am not sure why Jaywalk deserves a pass due to that while Out For A Spin is given no credit for overcoming it. She also was used rather hard to get over to the rail from the outside post. She won't have to worry about that this time around being on the rail. If she breaks again like she broke in the Ashland, she could get a great position without so much effort. Out For A Spin is lightly raced compared to the top rated horses in this field at only 5 races, so she could still be developing and improving.
stark
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Wed May 01, 2019 9:56 am

Most Likely Winner: Champagne Anyone (#10)

https://timeformusblog.com/2019/04/30/t ... open-oaks/
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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ElPrado2
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Wed May 01, 2019 11:46 am

Jaywalk, Out for a Spin, and Champagne Anyone are all in my fantasy stable. 8-)
stark
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Wed May 01, 2019 4:04 pm

If Bellafina wins Friday’s Kentucky Oaks, trainer Simon Callaghan may need assistance hoisting the trophy.

Callaghan dislocated his right shoulder early Wednesday morning, slipping as he walked down the stairs of the apartment he has rented as he was getting ready to head to Churchill Downs for morning training.

“My foot went out from under me and I tumbled down the stairs and dislocated my shoulder,” Callaghan said by phone Wednesday morning. “I had to get rushed to the [emergency room] and have them set it back in. But I feel a lot better now, it’s all back in place and thankfully there was no break or anything like that. But it was excruciatingly painful for about an hour so.”

Callaghan was unable to come to the track Wednesday morning to watch Bellafina train. He was planning to come out Wednesday afternoon around feed time and would be there to watch her final training session Thursday morning. His right arm will be in a sling.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Sparrow Castle
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Wed May 01, 2019 10:16 pm

Oaks Contender Jaywalk Has A Star Wars Look To Her, But It’s For Good Reason
Image
Sharp observers in the John Servis barn this week may have noticed Kentucky Oaks contender Jaywalk cooling out in the shedrow with some sort of futuristic plastic device on her nose. Have no fear – the reigning Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner is neither sick nor a cyborg.

The device is a battery-powered equine nebulizer mask, made of soft material that fits over a horse's nose and with a tube to hold saline, minerals, or medications that are delivered in aerosol form. Like human nebulizers, the equipment was once only available when hooked up to a motor via a hose, but it's now mobile, allowing horses like Jaywalk to get their treatments while they walk. The mobile version also has the advantage of silence, minimizing any disturbances to the filly.

In hospital settings, nebulizer treatments can deliver antibiotics, corticosteroids, or bronchodilators directly to the airways to help heal a serious infection. They're also used for prevention, which is Servis's purpose with Jaywalk.
More: https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray- ... od-reason/
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Gemini
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Fri May 03, 2019 12:14 am

It's hard to ignore Bellafina. Hopefully the second trip to Churchill turns out better than the first.

I really like Restless Rider but I'm worried that she's under-prepped with only one start this year.

Lady Apple and Champagne anyone deserve respect after their previous victories.

Serengeti Empress is my personal favorite but her bleeding incidident and non-effort last out keeps me from actually betting on her.
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri May 03, 2019 1:11 am

I thought Chasing Yesterday was becoming a special filly, but Bellafina just dominated her in the Santa Anita Oaks.
Now, any time I try to consider another Oaks entrant, my eyes just keep going back to Bellafina's name. It feels like she's punching at a different weight than the other fillies.
Although....I can't remember if she's ever run on a wet track. :?
stark
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Fri May 03, 2019 10:14 am

Sloppy and off the Turf for races 1&4
too many scratches for me to list here, beware.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Fri May 03, 2019 10:52 am

From DRF Marty McGee....

The weather, as usual, is a major concern. It’s been raining here since the wee hours, but all the forecasters are saying it should stop sometime around 11 a.m., then stop at least until early tomorrow, which obviously is a different Derby-related matter altogether. Bottom line, as far as Oaks Day is concerned, the main track will be sloppy for the early races, and there’s the reasonable hope that the sun and wind will help it to dry out as the afternoon unfolds. Whether or not that means the track will be fast in time for the Oaks is TBA.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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starrydreamer
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Fri May 03, 2019 10:56 am

I love that photo of Jaywalk walking the shedrow with her equine nebulizer. My kid used a nebulizer (and still does, when really sick) for his asthma. So I guess I'm rooting for her.

I'm also rooting for Chocolate Kisses and Liora because of their female families. Chocolate Kisses is out of Brownie Points and therefore a half to Synchrony. Liora is a half to Family Tree and her second dam is Gold Mover, who was a good runner in the early 2000s.
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Mylute
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Fri May 03, 2019 12:34 pm

I'd like to see Out For a Spin take it.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
~ Peter Lorre 1904 - 1̶9̶6̶4̶ ∞
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Mylute
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Fri May 03, 2019 12:38 pm

Break Even took the Eight Belles Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion, winning by open lengths.

Bell's the One got up for second.

Nice story for the winner. The owner-breeders of Break Even also owned and bred the sire Country Day and owned the dam, Exotic Wager.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
~ Peter Lorre 1904 - 1̶9̶6̶4̶ ∞
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CoronadosQuest
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Fri May 03, 2019 2:20 pm

Man, Corey sounded so sad in his interview about being replaced. Heart breaks for him :(
Spahny
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Fri May 03, 2019 3:08 pm

They set it up for Street Band again.

Street Band
Bellafina
Restless Rider
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Squeaky
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Fri May 03, 2019 3:25 pm

Who won?
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