2018 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) - Nov 3rd

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Treve
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Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:33 pm

The field is set...
Churchill Downs
1 mile 1/4 on the Dirt
6 000 000$
Post Time: 5:44 pm Eastern

Horse - Jockey - Trainer - ML odds
1. Thunder Snow (IRE) | Christophe Soumillon | Saeed Bin Suroor | 12-1
2. Roaring Lion | Oisin Murphy | John Gosden | 20-1
3. Catholic Boy | Javier Castellano | Jonathan Thomas | 8-1
4. Gunnevera | Irad Ortiz Jr | Antonio Sano | 20-1
5. Lone Sailor | James Graham | Thomas Amoss | 30-1
6. McKinzie | Mike Smith | Bob Baffert | 6-1
7. West Coast | Johnny Velazquez | Bob Baffert | 5-1
8. Pavel | Mario Gutierrez | Doug O'Neill | 20-1
9. Mendelssohn | Ryan Moore | Aidan O'Brien | 12-1
10. Yoshida(JPN) | Jose Ortiz | Bill Mott | 10-1
11. Mind Your Biscuits | Tyler Gafflione | Chad Summers | 6-1
12. Axelrod | Joe bravo | Michael McCarthy | 30-1
13. Discreet Lover | Manuel Franco | Uriah St. Lewis | 20-1
14. Accelerate | Joel Rosario | John Sadler | 5-2
Also Eligible
15. Collected | Joseph Talamo | Bob Baffert | 30-1
16. Toast of New York | Julien Leparoux | Jamie Osborne | 20-1
Last edited by Treve on Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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BaroqueAgain1
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Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:54 pm

It's pretty amazing how many turf horses are running in the Classic this year. Catholic Boy, Mendelssohn, Roaring Lion, Thunder Snow and Yoshida have performed well on the grass, from maiden wins to multiple G1s.
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Treve
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Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:32 pm

I’m a little bit puzzled by some of those morning line odds though. What in the world suggests West Coast and especially McKinzie warrant 5-1 and 6-1 odds whilst Catholic Boy, Mendelssohn and Yoshida range from 8-1 to 12-1? Baffert factor?
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Sparrow Castle
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:45 am

Treve wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:32 pm
I’m a little bit puzzled by some of those morning line odds though. What in the world suggests West Coast and especially McKinzie warrant 5-1 and 6-1 odds whilst Catholic Boy, Mendelssohn and Yoshida range from 8-1 to 12-1? Baffert factor?
I'll dig into the BC when I have a little more time. But, judging from what I see on Twitter, you're not alone.
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Treve
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:11 am

Sparrow Castle wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:45 am
Treve wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:32 pm
I’m a little bit puzzled by some of those morning line odds though. What in the world suggests West Coast and especially McKinzie warrant 5-1 and 6-1 odds whilst Catholic Boy, Mendelssohn and Yoshida range from 8-1 to 12-1? Baffert factor?
I'll dig into the BC when I have a little more time. But, judging from what I see on Twitter, you're not alone.
I mean if you want to use the logic that West Coast ran second to Accelerate, why wouldn't you apply that same logic to Axelrod who ran second to McKinzie yet his odds are set at 30-1? I'm trying to figure out if the oddsmaker set the odds based on what he thinks the live betting will be, or what he thinks is actually likely.

Weird odds aside, I feel for Thunder Snow and his connections. If the track is wet, I'm sure they'll be holding their breath and hoping the horse doesn't get a case of déjà vu... 1 stall at Churchill last time on the mud wasn't their luck. Poor Christophe he already said he never wanted to see that starting gate again :lol:

What do you all think of the post positions, speaking of? Racingpost put out an article saying Mendelssohn got the best draw, whilst they feel Roaring Lion, Thunder Snow and Accelerate got a rough go of it.
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Mylute
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:32 am

I'm burned that Roaring Lion got the rail. I was hoping he'd get an outer one or even the farthest stall, so he would have an easier time getting away from kickback.

Oh well, maybe he won't mind it as much.
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Tessablue
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:44 am

Odds are always made to reflect the anticipated public interest- whether or not the horse has a chance hypothetically shouldn't play into it. West Coast's best form towers over the rest of these, he has every right to improve off his last outing and he has reportedly been training spectacularly. It wouldn't surprise me if he vies for favoritism with Accelerate, given Sadler's BC record and what might be declining form on the horse's part.

I want no piece of McKinzie, however. And I'll take Gunnevera over Yoshida at those odds any day.
stark
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:12 am

Andy Serling
‏@andyserling

Let me just say, if I made the ML on the @BreedersCup races it would be embarrassing even for me....but I doubt Accelerate is as low as 5:2. I can't see a significant gap between him and either Baffert runner.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Treve
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:27 am

Tessablue wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:44 am
Odds are always made to reflect the anticipated public interest- whether or not the horse has a chance hypothetically shouldn't play into it. West Coast's best form towers over the rest of these, he has every right to improve off his last outing and he has reportedly been training spectacularly. It wouldn't surprise me if he vies for favoritism with Accelerate, given Sadler's BC record and what might be declining form on the horse's part.

I want no piece of McKinzie, however. And I'll take Gunnevera over Yoshida at those odds any day.
Yeah my objection was more referring McKinzie but while one might argue West Coast’s Best Form towers over this field (I’d object, but let’s say I agree) how often do handicappers and even the general betting public actually play based on a horse’s best form? Don’t people usually bet on the horse’s recent form, or form patterns? West Coast’s last win was 13-14 months ago. He’s made a good account of himself in every one of his last outings but has failed to find the winner’a circle since then when some of these other horses have proven recent G1 winning form (or at least graded stakes winning form from this season).

That he has been training well doesn’t mean much either coming from the Baffert barn. I’m sure he’ll be bet down anyway I’m just not sure what justifies him being second choice so low over some of the others (and I’m not even talking about those that have turf form since that’s not really a fair comparison). I do think that his odds are on the Low end of where they should be, but some others should be in the same range that aren’t while McKinzie at 6-1 is baffling.

And yes Accelerate is too low.
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Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


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Ballerina
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:41 am

Bummed that Accelerate got such a crappy PP, but I'm going with him anyway - Accelerate, West Coast, McKinzie, and Yoshida - my superfecta - will probably box it.
Tessablue
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:01 pm

Treve wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:27 am
Yeah my objection was more referring McKinzie but while one might argue West Coast’s Best Form towers over this field (I’d object, but let’s say I agree) how often do handicappers and even the general betting public actually play based on a horse’s best form? Don’t people usually bet on the horse’s recent form, or form patterns? West Coast’s last win was 13-14 months ago. He’s made a good account of himself in every one of his last outings but has failed to find the winner’a circle since then when some of these other horses have proven recent G1 winning form (or at least graded stakes winning form from this season).

That he has been training well doesn’t mean much either coming from the Baffert barn. I’m sure he’ll be bet down anyway I’m just not sure what justifies him being second choice so low over some of the others (and I’m not even talking about those that have turf form since that’s not really a fair comparison). I do think that his odds are on the Low end of where they should be, but some others should be in the same range that aren’t while McKinzie at 6-1 is baffling.

And yes Accelerate is too low.
According to Welsch, West Coast is a pretty indifferent work horse, so it may mean something that he's working lights-out recently. And those losses to Gun Runner would win this race pretty comfortably, I think. He'll take money and he'll probably take mine, although right now I see two different scenarios: an easy West Coast win, or a complete mess with a bunch of unlikely horses together at the finish.

McKinzie I think is more the Baffert factor, plus he has an unknown upside whereas the ceiling for most of these horses feels pretty well known. We'll see how it plays out; this is a tough year for linemakers and handicappers alike.
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bare it all
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:55 pm

McKinzie is Baffert + Big Money Mike. Assuming he got choice between the two, interesting he goes with the 3YO. makes Axelrod look a tad more interesting if Mike really picked who he thought was better.

I am tossing Accelerate and will probably regret it. Tossing Thunder Snow, Roaring Lion and Mendy as well.

I think it's Yoshida vs Catholic Boy/McKinzie and Mind Your Biscuits/Discreet Lover running late.
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Curtis
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:11 pm

Mike Smith did choose McKinzie for what that’s worth. I think people need to be careful with the “All Baffert horses work well” talk. It has to be taken in the context of the horse. A horse can work fast but not well. A lot of folks—Baffert included—talked themselves into Arrogate working well into last year’s BC. He wasn’t, he was working fast enough but something just didn’t look right and he ran to it. I do think both his horses are coming up to the race well, I prefer West Coast out of the two but we’ll see.

As far as overall favoritism goes, I think it’s rare that a horse having the year Accelerate is having will probably be higher than 2-1. I wonder that if Stellar Wind didn’t end up playing Bumper Cars in the 2015 Distaff, Accelerate would be looked upon as a stronger favorite.
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Kurenai
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:53 pm

12-1 on Mendy sounds good to me. And as usual - I'll be rooting for him and betting on him. Just hope he steps forward of his last race.
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Treve
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:14 pm

Curtis wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:11 pm
Mike Smith did choose McKinzie for what that’s worth. I think people need to be careful with the “All Baffert horses work well” talk. It has to be taken in the context of the horse. A horse can work fast but not well. A lot of folks—Baffert included—talked themselves into Arrogate working well into last year’s BC. He wasn’t, he was working fast enough but something just didn’t look right and he ran to it. I do think both his horses are coming up to the race well, I prefer West Coast out of the two but we’ll see.
That's my point exactly. Arrogate was working faster than he had in the past so people were saying he was working well when visibly it wasn't the case to anyone looking. If someone says West Coast is usually disinterested (as Arrogate was) but is now suddenly working "lights out" that could be bad or good, and I haven't seen the horse myself so I immediately get skeptical when someone brings up "people are saying he's working well" (not even saying they've seen those works themselves but rather basing their opinion on hearsay). What I like to see personally are horses with good form being consistent with the way they work. Change usually means something but doesn't always mean it is good.

People were saying Good Magic was training like a beast before the Travers, too.
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Curtis
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:53 pm

Treve wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:14 pm
Curtis wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:11 pm
Mike Smith did choose McKinzie for what that’s worth. I think people need to be careful with the “All Baffert horses work well” talk. It has to be taken in the context of the horse. A horse can work fast but not well. A lot of folks—Baffert included—talked themselves into Arrogate working well into last year’s BC. He wasn’t, he was working fast enough but something just didn’t look right and he ran to it. I do think both his horses are coming up to the race well, I prefer West Coast out of the two but we’ll see.
That's my point exactly. Arrogate was working faster than he had in the past so people were saying he was working well when visibly it wasn't the case to anyone looking. If someone says West Coast is usually disinterested (as Arrogate was) but is now suddenly working "lights out" that could be bad or good, and I haven't seen the horse myself so I immediately get skeptical when someone brings up "people are saying he's working well" (not even saying they've seen those works themselves but rather basing their opinion on hearsay). What I like to see personally are horses with good form being consistent with the way they work. Change usually means something but doesn't always mean it is good.

People were saying Good Magic was training like a beast before the Travers, too.
My point is West Coast is working well in context to West Coast. He’s the type of horse, in my opinion, who cannot be worked up to a big race off of a long layoff. The race he ran gave him fitness—you could see he was short in the Awesone Again—and now he looks more awake and like the horse he was when he was on a regular race pattern. Good Magic is apples and oranges. Although people didn’t want to see it, he was used down the stretch in the Haskell until the last few yards. He was a bounce candidate in the Travers, didn’t have an optimal trip and may have had an issue begin to surface since he was retired soon after. Works are very specific to a given horse. They’re not all Unique Bella who took the bit and told the rider to hang on tight. Some of the things seen are subtle. I think West Coast is working up to a race well for West Coast and if he can run at or near his best, he’ll be tough, he’s a 10f horse and I don’t know I can say that about all the rest.
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Personal Ensign
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:41 pm

Treve,
I was wondering the same thing when I saw the odds, it doesn't make sense!


Treve wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:32 pm
I’m a little bit puzzled by some of those morning line odds though. What in the world suggests West Coast and especially McKinzie warrant 5-1 and 6-1 odds whilst Catholic Boy, Mendelssohn and Yoshida range from 8-1 to 12-1? Baffert factor?
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stark
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:56 pm

Did Collected make the plane ride just in case something happens?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Treve
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:58 pm

stark wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:56 pm
Did Collected make the plane ride just in case something happens?
Collected made the plane ride cause he's standing at Airdrie in 2019.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:06 pm

thx
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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