I think the argument for Good Magic- if you really want to make one- is that he might have ended up on the worst part of the track in the Derby stretch. He looked like he had Justify dead to rights but sort of spun his wheels in the 2-3 path. Meanwhile, Smith took Justify immediately to the rail (at Baffert's instruction, I'm sure, given his pre-race comments) and most of the closers either came up the rail or stayed very very wide. We've seen that part of the track become no-man's land in previous sloppy races at Churchill, so maybe Good Magic's effort was closer to Justify's than it looked.
I don't know how convinced I am by that argument, but it wouldn't shock me if he turned the tables. Honestly though, after watching them both gallop I feel like this is the worst sort of race to evaluate. Both look vulnerable and the track condition is a huge question mark, but nobody else in the field looks good enough to beat them even at around 80%. I agree that Bravazo ran surprisingly well in the Derby, but he has a fantastic mud pedigree and I don't really trust Lukas to have him better here. Quip can't run fast even with soft trips, Lone Sailor is unlikely to get a pace, Sporting Chance is a steward's nightmare... Tenfold and Diamond King aren't good, but they've been pointed here and have space to move forward. I guess?
And thanks Som, I never saw it but after my comments to customer service last year I've probably been blacklisted...
Last edited by Tessablue
on Thu May 17, 2018 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.