Arrogate

Tessablue
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Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:58 pm

I'm not sure I can think of a better historical four-race series than what Arrogate pulled off. Two track records, high-quality opponents, tons of shipping, multiple runstyles, insane figures... and it all came out of nowhere. That's an additional level of difficultly towards understanding this situation: there's literally no precedent for it.
Rick1323
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Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:15 pm

I'm blaming the quirky Del Mar track. The BC should be full of surprises this year..........
Everyone come home sound.....
Apollo
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Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:20 pm

That would have been an absolute stunner if American Pharoah had done it.

With Arrogate, not so much.

Late bloomers are always frauds to some degree. Early excellence is supreme excellence and freak excellence. This horse was not a freak when it matters...late as 2 year old and carried over to early 3. Therefore he is not a true all time great, and always vulnerable.

Naturally the adjusters won't agree. The adjusters have no clue regarding the big picture, not when they can obsess over running times and similar.

If you can't laugh at Happy Adjusters every day of your life you're missing a hell of a world. It is beyond hysterical when the adjusters try to place late bloomers high on that all time list, or try to pretend Arrogate is superior to American Pharoah. That type of thing. Fortunately for them those races are never actually run. So the adjusting ignorance lives on toward the next opportune placement.
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Charlie
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Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:38 pm

Wait, are people saying Arrogate is superior to Ghostzapper because of the company he raced against?

Sorry but I have trouble buying that. Arrogate is impressive but he is not some super special thing. Many other horses have run amazing races and done 'impossible' things. Comparing them is fun put pitting them against each other is pointless.
MR-W
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Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:57 pm

Charlie wrote:Wait, are people saying Arrogate is superior to Ghostzapper because of the company he raced against?

Sorry but I have trouble buying that. Arrogate is impressive but he is not some super special thing. Many other horses have run amazing races and done 'impossible' things. Comparing them is fun put pitting them against each other is pointless.
That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that Arrogate unquestionably had and won a series of races that are superior as to what GZ ran in. He was also extremely impressive in all of them.
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Charlie
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Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:07 pm

MR-W wrote:
Charlie wrote:Wait, are people saying Arrogate is superior to Ghostzapper because of the company he raced against?

Sorry but I have trouble buying that. Arrogate is impressive but he is not some super special thing. Many other horses have run amazing races and done 'impossible' things. Comparing them is fun put pitting them against each other is pointless.
That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that Arrogate unquestionably had and won a series of races that are superior as to what GZ ran in. He was also extremely impressive in all of them.
I hate the "superior race" arguement. A races importance changes all the time, in 1920 the Kentucky Derby wasn't worth Man O Wars time but now it's huge. Ghostzapper couldn't have run in the Pegasus bc it didn't exist so you can take that out and plenty of horses never went to Dubai so I can't hold it against him and they both ran in the Classic so I really don't understand your argument here.
Admin
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Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:12 pm

MR-W wrote:
Charlie wrote:Wait, are people saying Arrogate is superior to Ghostzapper because of the company he raced against?

Sorry but I have trouble buying that. Arrogate is impressive but he is not some super special thing. Many other horses have run amazing races and done 'impossible' things. Comparing them is fun put pitting them against each other is pointless.
That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that Arrogate unquestionably had and won a series of races that are superior as to what GZ ran in. He was also extremely impressive in all of them.
Besides the fact that all the horses ship to some exotic land, what's so special about the DWC? When run on dirt, the best competition comes from the exact horses that they face in the States. The same went for the Pegasus. The purses of the two events are irrelevant. The four races could've easily been interchanged with the Woodward and JCGC (or a number of other G1s for older males).

Arrogate was highly impressive in those races, but people seem to be wrongly elevating a couple of those races due to their purses it seems to me.
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
Tessablue
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Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:52 pm

Man, two days ago I was starting to worry that sweeping four of the most competitive dirt G1s in the world was a big deal or something... super relieved to discover that it's not.
carole
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Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:24 am

I can't believe how quick people are to criticise the horse's entire body of work because of one bad performance. He is a horse after all, maybe he wasn't feeling like running that day? Or maybe he saw how far ahead the lead horse was at the top of the stretch and got discouraged?

Whatever it was, we should wait until the Pacific Classic to really see whether he's lost a step or whether he just didn't want to go that day.
peeptoad
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Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:42 am

Apollo wrote: Late bloomers are always frauds to some degree.
I don't have a dog in this fight but, this sentence, in any sort of context, is one of weirdest I've ever read anywhere on the internet.
Admin
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Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:14 am

Tessablue wrote:Man, two days ago I was starting to worry that sweeping four of the most competitive dirt G1s in the world was a big deal or something... super relieved to discover that it's not.
Wasn't the Pegasus pretty much just a matchup between Arrogate and Chrome? And the real Chrome didn't show up?

What dirt horses did Arrogate beat in Dubai that were better than he met in the BCC?

My point is that people are elevating the status of both races due to the purses or other mystical reasons. The level of the competition is always what matters most, always.
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
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Life At Zen
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Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:02 am

peeptoad wrote:
Apollo wrote: Late bloomers are always frauds to some degree.
I don't have a dog in this fight but, this sentence, in any sort of context, is one of weirdest I've ever read anywhere on the internet.

I've heard that argument before and I've never been able to wrap my head around it.
Once upon a time there was a horse named Kelso.
But only once. ~Joe Hirsch
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Insane Crazy
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Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:17 am

Life At Zen wrote:
peeptoad wrote:
Apollo wrote: Late bloomers are always frauds to some degree.
I don't have a dog in this fight but, this sentence, in any sort of context, is one of weirdest I've ever read anywhere on the internet.

I've heard that argument before and I've never been able to wrap my head around it.
Remember how Cigar was a total sham?

Oy...
Not a wholesome trottin' race, no, but a race where they sit down right on the horse!
Like to see some stuck-up jockey boy sittin' on Dan Patch? Make your blood boil? Well, I should say!
Tessablue
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Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:09 am

Admin wrote:
Tessablue wrote:Man, two days ago I was starting to worry that sweeping four of the most competitive dirt G1s in the world was a big deal or something... super relieved to discover that it's not.
Wasn't the Pegasus pretty much just a matchup between Arrogate and Chrome? And the real Chrome didn't show up?

What dirt horses did Arrogate beat in Dubai that were better than he met in the BCC?

My point is that people are elevating the status of both races due to the purses or other mystical reasons. The level of the competition is always what matters most, always.
Shaman Ghost and Gun Runner, the other top older handicap horses this year. "Major G1" is basically just shorthand for "quality field, probably at a classic distance, probably requires shipping." I agree that people do sometimes hype up big-name races without cause, and a hypothetical Woodward could have a better field than the DWC, but that doesn't seem to be the case here and wins in New York, Florida, California and Dubai will always be more noteworthy than a win streak compiled at a single track or in a single state.

And I'm not sure how relevant this is to the current discussion, but field quality does seem to be one of the variables that time erases very quickly. Nobody remembers or cares that many Triple Crown winners faced absolutely terrible fields- only the names of the races are left to memory. Unless it becomes a new norm, Arrogate's Classic/Pegasus/DWC triple will persist for a long while- fortunately for us, those wins came against fields of actual quality and were all tremendous performances on their own.
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bare it all
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Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:16 am

I keep seeing people now claim Arrogate is a fraud who didn't beat "anything" in the fields he's faced...

Can we pause for a moment to look at the actual TIMES of the races he's run? I can't access PPs at work, but this horse isn't just beating the foes lines up against him, he's doing it in style. He's not running slow races against slower opponents.

Saturday's race was.... weird. Like Mike mentioned, he works faster in the mornings than he 'ran'... Maybe Bob didn't have him cranked up enough. Maybe he hates Del Mar. Who knows. But don't dismiss the races he did run.

He could never run another race and I'd still say he was one of the most talented freaks I've seen in my lifetime.
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canvasjockey
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Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:40 am

Tessablue wrote:Man, two days ago I was starting to worry that sweeping four of the most competitive dirt G1s in the world was a big deal or something... super relieved to discover that it's not.
I know, right? :lol:
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Somnambulist
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Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:47 pm

Tessablue wrote:I'm not sure I can think of a better historical four-race series than what Arrogate pulled off. Two track records, high-quality opponents, tons of shipping, multiple runstyles, insane figures... and it all came out of nowhere. That's an additional level of difficultly towards understanding this situation: there's literally no precedent for it.
The horse is clearly extremely good. I feel like Saturday was just a fluke. However, when people are in the moment with horses like this they go crazy bringing out the words like "best" "ever" and other legendary-level connotations. I'm a bigger fan of enjoying things while the dust settles a little bit.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Admin
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Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:03 pm

Arrogate has impressed with how he's won, not who he beat. That's why I'm having a problem with the "4 greatest races" idea that is talked about a lot. No one would be saying it if the same fields were called the Woodward or Pacific Classic.

Arrogate is hardly alone. The same is said of Songbird among her age group, and the same was said of more good and greats than it can't be said of. And it's fair to discuss. Do yo think any of us would be such a fan or calling him a monster had he simply won those races and beat those fields? No. It's how he did it that had us all excited.
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
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CoronadosQuest
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Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:40 pm

Apollo wrote: Late bloomers are always frauds to some degree.
So you are saying that Cigar was a fraud?
sweettalk
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Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:35 pm

what abt two yr olds who dominate then start trailing off and are also fans from April til their retirement? those horses aren't "frauds"? what are they, then?
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