Cairo Prince or Top Billing?

Matt Converse
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:35 am

Cairo Prince drubs them in the Holy Bull, Top Billing dusts them earlier on the card, same distance. Cairo goes in 1:42.16, Top Billing goes in 1:42.66. The Holy Bull goes at a faster pace, Top Billing finishes slightly faster. Who do you like better for the Derby? Cairo Prince obviously wins the day and is proven class, but who will relish the 10f?
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dustino140
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 1:38 am

I will take a horse like Cairo Prince any day, for any race, over a horse like Top Billing. Ok, maybe 'any day,' or 'any race' is an exaggeration, but 9 times out of 10 I'll take the horse that the closer has to try to figure out how to catch.
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Starine
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 2:01 am

I do love Top Billing's pedigree for getting a route of ground. Curlin, Deputy Minister, A.P Indy, Roberto and Nijinsky.
Matt Converse
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 5:42 am

I like his pedigree too, then again I always liked Pioneer of the Nile. Cairo Prince stepped up and stamped himself a standout after that hard to figure last race. Top Billing looked great, almost better in some ways, but that may have been an illusion created by the lack of opposition. My guess is he ran another 91 Beyer, not bad, not fabulous; numbers-wise, no improvement. He does look like he has more in the tank.

In an illustration of how things just aren't that simple:
Honor Code was flattered by Cairo Prince here.
Honor Code was not flattered by Wicked Strong here.

God I love the Derby trail.
Matt Converse
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 5:43 am

Starine wrote:I do love Top Billing's pedigree for getting a route of ground. Curlin, Deputy Minister, A.P Indy, Roberto and Nijinsky.
Yeah it's kind of hard not to like it.
Matt Converse
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 5:47 am

dustino140 wrote:I will take a horse like Cairo Prince any day, for any race, over a horse like Top Billing. Ok, maybe 'any day,' or 'any race' is an exaggeration, but 9 times out of 10 I'll take the horse that the closer has to try to figure out how to catch.
So you liked Bodemeister over I'll Have Another? (I liked both.)
Sound of Freedom
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 9:52 am

Cairo Prince has to be considered the #1 horse on the derby trail. Shared Belief has too many question marks. Top Billing looks good but Commissioner is just better IMO.

Right now

1 Cairo Prince
2 Commissioner
3 Shared Belief
4 Honor Code
5 Top Billing

Constitution and Indianapolis though are major threats to all.
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Barbaro06
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:12 am

Closers do seem to fare well in the derby (Orb, Street Sense, Mine that Bird and Giacomo are the few that come to mind). But I agree Top Billing needs to put himself a bit closer or he won't get there in time or will have trouble like he did in the Allowance against Commisioner.

Another note, who is going to like the slop better since it inevitably rains in Louisville on the first Saturday in May?
MrPhil
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:39 am

Cairo Prince is a top racehorse. And can u imagine how dominating his races will be when he doesn't have to carry more weight than the other horses and gets to save a little ground on the turns?

Wow!

Top Billing is okay but....


;)
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dustino140
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:52 am

Matt Converse wrote:
dustino140 wrote:I will take a horse like Cairo Prince any day, for any race, over a horse like Top Billing. Ok, maybe 'any day,' or 'any race' is an exaggeration, but 9 times out of 10 I'll take the horse that the closer has to try to figure out how to catch.
So you liked Bodemeister over I'll Have Another? (I liked both.)
I'll Have Another wasn't anything near being a 'closer.'
gravano
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:43 pm

Tough call. Both performances give the TC trail a nice opening.
arkle
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:47 pm

I'll take whichever one is still running and winning G1s in the late summer and fall.
What was Will Take Charge up to this time last year?
harvestmoon
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 1:20 pm

Will Take Charge won the Smarty Jones in January, then won the G2 Rebel in March.
Matt Converse
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 7:39 pm

dustino140 wrote:
Matt Converse wrote:
dustino140 wrote:I will take a horse like Cairo Prince any day, for any race, over a horse like Top Billing. Ok, maybe 'any day,' or 'any race' is an exaggeration, but 9 times out of 10 I'll take the horse that the closer has to try to figure out how to catch.
So you liked Bodemeister over I'll Have Another? (I liked both.)
I'll Have Another wasn't anything near being a 'closer.'
True, although I think it could be similar positioning in the Derby. They were 1st and 6th, Cairo and Top Billing I could see 3rd and 10th, and I'll Have Another had a much faster horse to catch. Right now, I'd take Cairo Prince but I wouldn't be surprised if that changes after their next races.
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dustino140
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 7:52 pm

Matt Converse wrote: True, although I think it could be similar positioning in the Derby. They were 1st and 6th, Cairo and Top Billing I could see 3rd and 10th, and I'll Have Another had a much faster horse to catch. Right now, I'd take Cairo Prince but I wouldn't be surprised if that changes after their next races.
Or they could be 5th and 18th.

Then again, why handicap the pace of a race that won't be run for 3 months?

And just to be clear, I have no recollection of how I bet most Derbies. I bet hundreds of races every year and for me, the Derby is just another one of them. I don't think I liked I'll Have Another a lot that day - maybe not at all (I think I was on board with Gemologist) but I think I played him back in the Preakness. Then again, we're very much talking about apples and oranges here. I'm talking about general handicapping ideals - not one cherry-picked race each year.
tcw
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 7:53 pm

My only knock on CP was the final fraction, run in a tepid 6:75, however, I'll cut him a little slack after going the first 6f in just over 1:10. Plus, it was his first start in nearly two months, so he may have needed a race. As for TB, his final fraction wasn't all that much faster, along with the fact that his running style isn't favorable to large fields like the KD. Of the two, I like TB's pedigree for distance, but I prefer CP's running style and his ability to kick away quickly and sustain it. At this point, I'd take the more versatile of the two, Cairo Prince.
blamethewinner
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 8:55 pm

tcw wrote:My only knock on CP was the final fraction, run in a tepid 6:75, however, I'll cut him a little slack after going the first 6f in just over 1:10. Plus, it was his first start in nearly two months, so he may have needed a race. As for TB, his final fraction wasn't all that much faster, along with the fact that his running style isn't favorable to large fields like the KD. Of the two, I like TB's pedigree for distance, but I prefer CP's running style and his ability to kick away quickly and sustain it. At this point, I'd take the more versatile of the two, Cairo Prince.
I thought it was bad when people over-emphasized final 3/8th marks in preps, now sixteenths? Oy vey.
sweettalk
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 9:45 pm

tcw wrote:My only knock on CP was the final fraction, run in a tepid 6:75, however, I'll cut him a little slack after going the first 6f in just over 1:10. Plus, it was his first start in nearly two months, so he may have needed a race. As for TB, his final fraction wasn't all that much faster, along with the fact that his running style isn't favorable to large fields like the KD. Of the two, I like TB's pedigree for distance, but I prefer CP's running style and his ability to kick away quickly and sustain it. At this point, I'd take the more versatile of the two, Cairo Prince.
in the final 16th with no threat whatsoever from anyone, he can finish as fast/slow as he wants.
Kennedy
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Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:54 pm

If the question is Cairo Prince or Top billing I think I'd definitely say Cairo Prince although I'm a bit more confident in Top Billing's ability to go 10f. It seems to me that Cairo prince would be beat most horses of this generation in any race that is not beyond his ability to stay. I think 10f will be tough for him this early in his career. As a 4yo I think 10f will be much more within his scope but I'm just a touch skeptical at this point. I wasn't thrilled about the way he stopped after the line in the Holy Bull. It's not a nail in the coffin by any means it's just not a positive.

Top Billing stayed on very well but seems to be no where near as fast as Cairo Prince so his ability to stay will only do him good if Cairo Prince won't stay.
Somnambulist

Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:58 pm

May be a little tangential, but it's nice seeing the "good" guys in racing have top prospects for America's biggest race.

Hopefully they both stay sound and competitive so we have some positive media flow for once.
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