Top Ten Lists 2020 Kentucky Derby

thinair
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Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:21 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:12 pm
Charlatan wouldn't even be in the conversation without the Baffert factor. Nor would Nadal, for that matter.

It's kind of crazy to me that Tiz the Law isn't being hyped more. His Holy Bull effort was outstanding. That he closed at equal odds with Nadal in Pool 2- off solely that one's maiden win- is completely insane to me.
Charlatan isn't in any serious conversation:-)

Perfect name though.
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Mylute
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Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:36 pm

Yes, I do love the name Charlatan.

And we might all be eating crow after May but as good as I think Charlatan's race was, I am also in agreement that he wouldn't be being hyped this much if he wasn't a Baffert trainee.
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stark
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Fri Feb 21, 2020 3:32 pm

It's become human nature to give the Bafferts a second, even third look at this time of year. After all, in February it's almost as much about handicapping the trainer as it is the horse.
DW Lukas went through his years of being the headline story, even if he didn't have the horse, same goes for TA Pletcher. It just so happens to be Baffert's turn to be in the 3YO spotlight.

Think about it, would you take a short price in February on a good horse trained by the late great Bobby Frankel? I don't think so, too many i's to dot and t's to cross to make the race in the May. Same goes for Mandella, Sherriffs from the west coast and big name guys like Brown, Mott and KML on the east coast, their goals all seem to be something other than May 2nd, nothing wrong with that. At least you know if you're making a future bet on a Baffert, even if it's just for bragging rights in cyberland, you've got a fair shot of making it to the starting gate.
Good luck to all who dare.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Tessablue
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Fri Feb 21, 2020 6:30 pm

I suppose there's some value in knowing that the trainer almost always points horses to the race and knows how to get them there, but the horses are who they are. It just continues to amaze me how quickly they end up on Derby lists and how much money they take in the future pools. I mean, last year Roadster was the 6-1 favorite in the final pool, only to go off at 12-1 on Derby day! None of it is as egregious as Mohaymen, but it's still pretty wild to witness, and I'm feeling just a bit indignant on Tiz the Law's behalf given how good he's been so far (even his Jockey Club effort looks better now than it did a week ago). Nadal will probably get the points he needs, but I get major Dortmund vibes from him and I think he'd be considered a nice one-turn prospect in any other barn, not a 5-1 Derby contender on DRF.

Admittedly, these are pretty bold words from someone with future bets on Anneau d'Or (whoops, though I think his last race wasn't quite as bad as it looked) and Three Technique (actually quite excited to see his next race in the wake of Silver Prospector's strong effort).
stark
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Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:01 pm

Futures steam is an incredible machine to witness, some years it just takes one big race....
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... -for-roses
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Big Ten
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Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:26 pm

Most of these top 10 Derby lists, 90% of the horses listed will be the losers of the race. Or horses listed will be folks using them for the exotics underneath. I realized Futures from my online betting account is how I plan to bet the Kentucky Derby for now on. And those Futures are only betting who the winner will be.

For all we know, Charlatan can be either another Justify or simply flop in his next race going longer the way Pulpit did in 1997 by his 4th start when Captain Bodgit caught him easily in the Florida Derby. Pulpit debuted in his maiden race with a 107 BSF. Or perhaps Charlatan is a talented young sprinter like Lost in the Fog was?

I believe Charlatan will take the Justify route. His next race will be a March allowance one-mile race like Justify had 2 years ago. I don't see Baffert putting him in the San Felipe that soon. And he wouldn't want horses he trains going against each other. He wants to pick up paychecks around the country and not cannibalize his earnings, his Derby horses' earnings, and their points to get in.

We won't really know much about Charlatan in his next race anyway other than if he's a fluke or not. What's a one-mile allowance race really going to tell us? I wasn't even sure about Justify being legit until after he won the Santa Anita Derby. Charlatan can go three different ways which is either Justify, Pulpit, or a talented sprinter/miler. Or he just flops.

Not crazy about Speightstown as Charlatan's sire. Then again, I wasn't crazy about Scat Daddy as Justify's sire either. I wasn't a fan of Speightstown back in 2004. I thought Pico Central deserved sprint champion that year. It's fine. At least Speightstown had a more decorated career than Pioneerof the Nile and Scat Daddy as he was a Breeders' Cup winner and Eclipse champion that they weren't.

Let's never forget Lucky Pulpit who ran off the board in the 2004 Santa Anita Derby that my girlfriend and I attended sired a horse who won multiple 10F races. We're still about 2 months too early to know who Charlatan really is yet and a next race away to find out if his debut was an aberration or not.


https://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-justif ... er-company
After Justify won the Santa Anita Derby and posted his third consecutive triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, Santa Anita morning-line maker Jon White asked me if I knew how many horses had started their careers with three triple-digit Beyers. I did not know the answer, but was thinking it could not be many.

With the help of the Daily Racing Form database, which has 25 years of published Beyer Figures, I got the answer – 18 horses over the 25 years began their careers with three straight triple-digit Beyers, many more than I envisioned. Some are very well known; others obscure. Just one of the horses started in the Kentucky Derby. Justify, with his 104, 101, 107 series, will be the second.

The most famous horse on the list is the great sprinter Lost in the Fog, who started his career Nov. 14, 2004, with a 103 at Golden Gate Fields and followed that with a 109 at Turf Paradise, both races as a 2-year-old. Lost in the Fog actually got 100-plus Beyers in his first 10 starts, with highs of 114 and 116.

The only Derby horse was Pulpit in 1997. Like Justify, Pulpit did not start as a 2-year-old, but his schedule was way more ambitious, fairly typical of the way horses were trained at the time. Pulpit began his career on Jan. 11, 1997, getting a 107 in a maiden race. He followed that with a 108 in an allowance race and a 104 when winning the Fountain of Youth. Then, the colt got a 100 after finishing second to Captain Bodgit in the Florida Derby before winning the Blue Grass with a 106 and finishing fourth in the Derby behind Silver Charm with a 105. So six races in 16 weeks, all with triple-digit Beyers. By the way, Pulpit never raced after the Derby.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
thinair
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Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:00 am

This just keeps getting better. Pulpit flopped going longer because he lost to Captain Bodgit? Captain Bodgit would be odds on to win the Derby against this crowd. Pulpit won the Bluegrass at the dreaded 9F distance and ran 4th behind some very good horses in the Derby before being injured. He was a legitimate giant talent. All this while comparing Charlatan to Justify....as though, other than significant talent, there is any comparison as racehorses. Hey, what the hell, didn't Secret Circle win the Rebel?

Carry on.
Slewfan2
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Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:16 am

thinair wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:00 am
This just keeps getting better. Pulpit flopped going longer because he lost to Captain Bodgit? Captain Bodgit would be odds on to win the Derby against this crowd. Pulpit won the Bluegrass at the dreaded 9F distance and ran 4th behind some very good horses in the Derby before being injured. He was a legitimate giant talent. All this while comparing Charlatan to Justify....as though, other than significant talent, there is any comparison as racehorses. Hey, what the hell, didn't Secret Circle win the Rebel?

Carry on.
Pulpit was was incredibly talented - in fact, I think he was injured in the Derby, which makes his race even better. They tried to bring him back, but he got injured....what a shame. I’ll bet he would have run as a four year old, also...
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Big Ten
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Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:50 pm

Clearing Justify and Bob Baffert's name...
https://sports.nbcsports.com/2019/09/25 ... drug-test/

^ Someone from the NY Times and the veterinarian is probably good friends with Mike Repole. It was environmental contamination. Still salty about Restoring Hope.
_

I didn't think Nyquist, Always Dreaming, and Justify would win the Kentucky Derby until after they won their last major prep in April.

Sole Volante could be another Gunnevera. Since California Chrome, the last 6 horses who crossed the finish line first (can't say winner because Maximum Security got DQ'd) all had tactical speed. Even I'll Have Another had tactical speed. Animal Kingdom and Orb weren't deep closers.

You really have to go back to 2007 to find a horse with a similar running-style to Sole Volante and there were times when Street Sense wasn't always that far back. So my chances watching Sole Volante winning the 2020 Kentucky Derby looks like slim to none and that's without considering the fact the track could up sloppy again for a fourth straight year.

Last year, my picks were actually Maximum Security and Omaha Beach. But unfortunately, we all know OB got scratched like 2 days before the race. Proved he was a quality horse returning to win the SA Sprint. I can imagine had he run it, I would've won money for that race even if say he finished 2nd and not Country House.

I wasn't feeling Omaha Beach yet until March. I made the mistake not to pick him to upset Game Winner which he did by a nose. I was already upset by the first Rebel race before when Improbable lost to Long Range Toddy. That's when I started to sense Improbable was a pretender. The Arkansas Derby made up for that Rebel fiasco when I correctly had OB over him.

I should've known my chances got slimmer when Omaha Beach got scratched. If only OB didn't get entrapped epiglottis, entered, and either won or run 2nd, I don't think the outcry for OB being the 2020 Kentucky Derby winner would've been as upsetting as it did for Country House.

OB was my missing piece. I got him at 16-1 before he won the Arkansas Derby. Then saw his odds drop to 6-1 days before the big race. I was forced to scramble and use Improbable as a backup. In typical fashion like his two Arkansas preps defeats, he disappointed. And I backed Improbable around Christmas 2018.

Wasn't too excited by any of the Baffert horses last year and not once did I back Game Winner and Roadster. I have a little more faith in Charlatan as he's already hit a 105 BSF. He fits the typical profile of more recent Kentucky Derby winners. Highest Beyer and tactical speed. Even Maximum Security only got a 102 BSF at best. Omaha Beach was a 101.

The raw talent and running-style is there for Charlatan but he can easily get exposed in his very next race or the most important prep right after in April. Or he may not make it at all like what happened to Omaha Beach. Speaking of that horse...

1:08.79 - 2019 SA Sprint (103 BSF)
1:08.85 - 2020 Charlatan's debut (105 BSF)
1:09.00 - 2019 BC Sprint (111 BSF)
1:09.07 - 2018 Justify's debut 6F split (104 BSF)

Charlatan seems to be faster than Justify and Mitole being geared down. Let's remember Ghostzapper started from the sprinting ranks.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Big Ten
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Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:56 am

Charlatan: Derby contender or this week's flavor?
https://www.vsin.com/charlatan-derby-co ... ks-flavor/


The chances of another unraced 2YO after 2 years winning the Kentucky Derby really is trying to buck the trend again. Charlatan's comparisons at possibly being another Flashpoint and Hidden Scroll are valid.

Another horse I like that impressed me is Maxfield. I absolutely loved that move he made in the Breeders' Futurity. From what I'm reading, he should prep in Florida. I don't want him in the UAE Derby. Maxfield looks big and strong like Independence Hall.

Godolphin could finally win it. Son of Street Sense from a Bernardini mare. Only thing is I prefer more early speed. Not plodders. Still February. Omaha Beach didn't pop out until March and needed to validate himself even more by April. Still a guessing game.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:21 pm

From last to first....Cafe Pharoah, collects 10 Derby points.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2tLqNdd-f8

and his race from December on the front end.

https://youtu.be/aFUUVolJ5NQ
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Diver52
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Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:30 pm

stark wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:21 pm
From last to first....Cafe Pharoah, collects 10 Derby points.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2tLqNdd-f8

and his race from December on the front end.

https://youtu.be/aFUUVolJ5NQ
Just saw that on TVG--he completely blew the break and won in hand.
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
Matt Converse
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Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:14 am

I would put Tiz the Law on top right now, but there's a long way to go. I know he wasn't trained much for the race, but Nadal didn't scream Derby winner to me.
Horsebagger
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Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:26 pm

thinair wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:21 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:12 pm
Charlatan wouldn't even be in the conversation without the Baffert factor. Nor would Nadal, for that matter.

It's kind of crazy to me that Tiz the Law isn't being hyped more. His Holy Bull effort was outstanding. That he closed at equal odds with Nadal in Pool 2- off solely that one's maiden win- is completely insane to me.
Charlatan isn't in any serious conversation:-)

Perfect name though.
Baffert has him back to work this morning , 9 days since his debut win. He knows the clock is ticking. Let's see if the son of speightstown can stay healthy under the tough grind to make the derby gate.
stark
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Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:27 pm

Bringing the hammer down at $700,000 means to me that at a minimum two different groups had expectations that in all likelihood extended beyond 6 furlongs.
Hoping they get rewarded on their investment.
If all else fails, the BC Sprint Championship ain't no chopped liver.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
MySaladDays
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Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:30 pm

I don't do futures wagers anymore, most of the horses at this point are 9Fers winning or placing in prep races.

I also need to know if track will be muddy or fast. Makes a big difference. Also need to know more about the japanese entry, UAE, etc. I don't even start thinking about a list until at least after the FL Derby Like Big Ten says a lot of horses do not pop til sometime in March.

Horses that won't be on the win part of my ticket are Tiz the Law or Silver Prospector, unless I see something additional than what I've seen.
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Starine
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Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:14 pm

Mr. Monomoy Off Kentucky Derby Trail
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... erby-trail
MySaladDays
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Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:12 am

Big Ten wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:50 pm
Since California Chrome, the last 6 horses who crossed the finish line first (can't say winner because Maximum Security got DQ'd) all had tactical speed. Even I'll Have Another had tactical speed. Animal Kingdom and Orb weren't deep closers.
You are right about that.

This is why, although I'm a fan of the stamina laden horses, for the KY Derby you gotta have some speed.......and coupled with a wet track, the stamina guys just don't have it.
This is also why my favorite TC race is The Belmont.

I'm kinda losing my interest in the KY Derby as the years go by, and find myself having to move over the pond for the real distance races that I love so much.

If a horse like tiz the law won the derby, not only would I be very surprised, but I'd probably not follow it anymore. He's not really in the classic distance horse category for me.
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Mylute
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Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:22 am

So you'd stop watching a race because a horse whose pedigree/ability you deemed unworthy for the distance outran the pedigree you declared for him and won it?

Interesting.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
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Charlie
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Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:38 am

MySaladDays wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:12 am
Big Ten wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:50 pm
Since California Chrome, the last 6 horses who crossed the finish line first (can't say winner because Maximum Security got DQ'd) all had tactical speed. Even I'll Have Another had tactical speed. Animal Kingdom and Orb weren't deep closers.
You are right about that.

This is why, although I'm a fan of the stamina laden horses, for the KY Derby you gotta have some speed.......and coupled with a wet track, the stamina guys just don't have it.
This is also why my favorite TC race is The Belmont.

I'm kinda losing my interest in the KY Derby as the years go by, and find myself having to move over the pond for the real distance races that I love so much.

If a horse like tiz the law won the derby, not only would I be very surprised, but I'd probably not follow it anymore. He's not really in the classic distance horse category for me.

I don't understand this comment. How does a horse out running his pedigree ruin the race for you?
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