Accident Prevention

CorridorZ75
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Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:53 pm

stark wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:08 pm
Kurenai wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:02 pm
You think that gambler won't learn what to look after in vet records, when they had to learn everything else? :roll: They would figure it out.
Step one is to train vets on how to write industry standard medical records, get back to me when that's accomplished, thanks.
Are you referring to the public sheets of the previous weeks treatments for big races? Those are not the medical records, or at least only one small part of them. And yes, legally, the complete vet medical record needs to contain the same things a human medical record contains.
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Kurenai
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Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:12 pm

stark wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:08 pm
Kurenai wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:02 pm
You think that gambler won't learn what to look after in vet records, when they had to learn everything else? :roll: They would figure it out.
Step one is to train vets on how to write industry standard medical records, get back to me when that's accomplished, thanks.
You might want to broaden your horizon. There's places in the world where they've got it figured out. https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/informat ... abase.aspx
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/mee ... ish/local/
Somnambulist

Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:18 pm

Too late stark, we all already saw it. Why delete it? Own your product!
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Kurenai
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Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:23 pm

Don't see anything racist or sexist with Starks posting btw. A bit over the top to call him out for that especially since you can't make out who is who in the crowd.

Btw Stark as I said: if you are dishing it out, you also have to take it. You often pick out random postings from other members you thought to be stupid. This time it's reversed and you're on the receiving end, others disagree with you and think your comment was awful. I'm all for free speech, but that does also mean that others have the right to respond to you. If they think you're awful, then that's it. As long as nobody calls you an idiot, retard, whatever or strongly implies it (like you did with the posting about the gamblers) it's all fair game. We're all adults here. So put on your big boy boots. :P

Btw I hardly ever intervene in the arguments, only if I find a comment REALLY distasteful (as yours was right after a horse died).
Somnambulist

Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:25 pm

Kurenai wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:23 pm
Don't see anything racist or sexist with Starks posting btw.
I know you aren't from the US, but Aqueduct is in a predominately working class neighborhood. I think it's important to consider that when he/she asks if people who attend this track are intelligent enough to decipher anything.
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Kurenai
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Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:29 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:25 pm
Kurenai wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:23 pm
Don't see anything racist or sexist with Starks posting btw.
I know you aren't from the US, but Aqueduct is in a predominately working class neighbor. I think it's important to consider that.
Working class doesn't imply that it's related to races or sexes either. I know PC is huuuuge in the US, but sometimes it's over the top IMO. This is one of those times, to call someone racist because they posted a picture like that. If anything he didn't discriminate anyone and implied everyone in that picture is stupid. ;)
Somnambulist

Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:32 pm

Oh please. The only thing stupid here is the wool over your eyes.

Ban me.
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Kurenai
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Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:38 pm

Sure, if you want to behave like a 3 or 4 year old. *shrug* I don't care/mind. ;) I said it again and again, I take no sides in arguments, if you can't cope/deal with that, you can leave anytime you want. Even without posting theatrically "Ban Me" after insulting me.
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Katewerk
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Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:37 am

Somnambulist wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:25 pm
Kurenai wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:23 pm
Don't see anything racist or sexist with Starks posting btw.
I know you aren't from the US, but Aqueduct is in a predominately working class neighborhood. I think it's important to consider that when he/she asks if people who attend this track are intelligent enough to decipher anything.
This forum is so packed with mind readers it ought to be hosted in a carnival tent.

It might be an observation that the "average" working class attendee has a job and a family and bills to pay, and other interests, and goes to the track for entertainment without any expectation that their wager is going to make them richer or poorer in any meaningful way.

As for complete vet records, those should be filed with the track management in my opinion, to better determine if a horse is fit to go in the gate. To the general betting public? No.

Because without a veterinary background, the average member of the public isn't qualified to interpret what they're reading. (Hell, ask three different vets about your dog's blood chemistry panel and you'll get four different opinions about the best course of action.)

Should vet records be released to the wind, you're going to reap a whirlwind of chaos -- from lazy misinterpretation by media, to intentional misrepresentation by activists, up to and including forgeries and other mischief making its way to social media.
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Curtis
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Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:24 pm

I’ve always said if you want 50 different opinions on horse care, they’re real easy to get. Just put 50 horse people together in one room. The veterinary records sounds like a good thing for the public but I would file it under TMI. A horse can be plenty banged up—look up Newfound Gold—and if they’re placed right, still be win machines. This all started with stark bein’ stark and stirring some excrement. The point he was making, not so passive aggressively, was just because a well meant horse is getting it’s ears boxed—even on the drop—doesn’t mean there is a physical problem. If Repole and TAP do what internet land thinks is right by the filly and breeds her or gives her away to be a show horse, all is good. She’s in for a nickel at Charles Town in a month with new connections, the pitch forks will be sharpened and utilized. And so it goes.
stark
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Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:04 pm

Thanks Curtis.....referring to the health records for the general public as TMI is a perfect description.

And Katewerk, good idea that medical records get filed with the track management, can't see any harm in that.

And now a question for the "best" handicapper on this board (you know who you are based on volume of winnings/losses over the many years), since I don't know your daily methods, let me take a stab at it.

1. You get to see every race live and you go back and look at replays as necessary, over time you get to know individual horses above and beyond what is printed in their PPs.

2. You keep your own track bias notes and you know which horses fell victim to or overcame a speed bias or rail bias last time out.

3. You know all the jockeys on the circuit and what they're likely to do in today's race.

4. You're somewhat a believer of speed ratings and use Beyer Speed Figures as an additional tool in your handicapping.

5. You have the ability to describe the shape of the upcoming race, how many speed horses, how many closers, best closer, speed of the speed etc.

6. You always want to look for value, a horse at 8/1 may not be quite as good as the 8/5 horse on paper, but close enough to warrant a wager.

7. You know barns and trainer intentions, is today the race they're pointing for or is today an educational race?

8. You have friends in the business who live and die with other handicapping resources such as the Ragozin sheets, so when somebody says horse x got a zero on the sheets you make your own mental notes.

9. You spend an inordinate amount of time watching "troubled trips" especially those that don't get noted in the charts and anxiously await the next start putting that horse in your stable mail.

10. And now somebody comes along and wants you to broaden your horizons to become a better handicapper.
Amongst other things they tell you the following
a) the #1 horse had a Swollen left hind cannon.
b) the #2 Rider concerned horse's action during racing last out.
c) the #3, six months ago Lame right front leg after racing. Update(26.11.2018): Source of lameness from the foot.
d) the #4 horse had Medical therapy for chronic orthopedic condition.
e) the #5 horse, 5 months ago had Restricted action in both front legs.
f) the #6 horse had Palmar/plantar osteochondral disease lesions in both front fetlocks.
g) the #7 horse, eleven months ago had Swollen front legs.
h) the #8 horse 3 months ago had Inappetence & blood abnormalities.
i) the #9 horse had Distal cannon bone active inflammation and a Nail puncture in right hind foot 4 months ago.
j) the #10 horse Bled from both nostrils after barrier trial 5 months ago.

Can you please explain to me that in addition to the 9 steps mentioned above as a bare minimum to your handicapping expertise, how you would include these vet notes to become a better handicapper?

Sincere thanks.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Kurenai
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Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:48 pm

All I hear is whining, why are you not actually informing yourself about other racing products? And read things into postings that aren't there? ;)

You presented a scenario in your first posting (a horse finished last and was pulled up actually, then had 3 work outs. Put in a claiming race, pulled up again and limped/was injured) and asked what could have been done to prevent this specific scenario. I told you open vet records (btw never said the entire blood panels have to be added), gave you information about how that can be done (after you doubted that was even possible).

I have no interest into spending my time arguing over the internet about stuff like this, with someone who has no idea about what's happening outside the US. You can go out there compare racing products and see how they work on your own (I think you are smart enough to do that and can figure it out. See? I have faith in people). You can even gather information about how handicappers use those vet records. It's just a tool like anything else.

Why would I even argue with someone on the internet that something would never work, even tough it has been proven already in another country and with great success mind you, that it does work, just because they can't figure it out? Is like trying to convince someone that public healthcare works actually, despite what some people claim. Wasted time and I have enough to do. So yeah, sorry to disappoint. :lol:

Edit to say: don't read that with an aggressive tone btw, I just generally don't care enough (see example with public health care), has nothing to do with you personally!
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Charlie
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Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:13 pm

Ehhh, PP's are some of the most confusing things ever, there are so many different numbers and abbrevations and gamblers have no problem reading them.... something tells me they can learn a vets record.

Don't say rude and dumb things and then cry when people give you back the same tone.
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Curtis
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Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:32 pm

Charlie wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:13 pm
Ehhh, PP's are some of the most confusing things ever, there are so many different numbers and abbrevations and gamblers have no problem reading them.... something tells me they can learn a vets record.

Don't say rude and dumb things and then cry when people give you back the same tone.
Maybe I’ve just been reading them for a long time, but I don’t find PP’s to be all that confusing. You guys have got me convinced though, I should have told my wife, 25 years ago when we got married, that I have a false positive whenever I take a treadmill test.

I’m not sure it was as much crying as mimicry.
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Kurenai
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Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:06 pm

Curtis wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:32 pm
I should have told my wife, 25 years ago when we got married, that I have a false positive whenever I take a treadmill test.
:lol: Made me laugh. And I can tell you that I tried to explain how to read PPs to newcomers and they all found it horrible confusing at first. :lol:

Btw (!) I forgot to respond to Katewerk: I do agree with you and I think that would be a good middle ground, let the track management store the records. That alone would help a lot and could have prevented the hypothetical presented scenario..

@Curtis: I also forgot to say, that I think it's perfectly fine if a horse runs at the lowest end and gets dropped down in ranks to where it can be competitive. Racing in races with small purses doesn't mean the animals get mistreated or are bound to be on the next meat truck either. (I won't deny that it makes me angry to see a horse that earned it's owner a few 100k getting dumped in a cheap claimer though, once it isn't as good anymore, just to unload it).

However, the scenario that was presented is that the horse was pulled up first race, had 3 workouts, then pulled up once more limping. I didn't double check on that info (should have instead of trusting stark, my fault) and didn't know the horse just is slow, or doesn't want to race and was uninjured. So ya, I won't take out my pitchfork. It happens all the time that a high profile barn sells racing prospects again, after it turns out they can't compete at a top level. They can still make a nice racehorse for someone else who isn't after a G1 win. Nothing wrong with that.
stark
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Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:46 pm

I would still appreciate hearing from an experienced gambler how they would use vet records in their handicapping process.

In that vain, I've thought back over some recommendations I've received over the years....

There was a guy out of San Diego, Greg Lawler, who preached that success was in handicapping the jockey/trainer combinations, not the actual horse. Years later, the same guy was teaching post parade body language. That same idea was well explained by Bonnie Ledbedder years earlier, tail extension, on their toes, sweat, eyes etc. With the expansion of TV wagering rather than being on-track this method kind of fell by the wayside.

Lots of folks will tell you that workouts are the key to success, how to watch them above and beyond the time printed in the paper. One of those guys, Bruno de Julio, still seems to have a loyal following and is apparently worth including in your analysis, but certainly not mandatory according to many experienced players.

Then there are the sheet players, Ragozin or Thorograph condenses the past performance into one number and you can compare a 5 to a 3 and predict the future, big money players love it, complicated and simple.

And on and on it goes, everybody has a system. EXCEPT that here in America I've never heard of somebody touting the use of vet records and that being the reason they stay up all night betting Hong Kong races. It's similar to showing the weight of horses just prior to their event, I don't think anybody in America has figured out how to use that intel to their benefit.

If you have, please share a little, sincerely appreciated.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Kurenai
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Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:58 pm

If you sincerely wanna know, I can only tell you what I've heard (I can't verify if true or not). If for example a horse bled only 3 weeks ago and runs again, that's a red flag for bettors. Chances are high the horse will bleed again (not enough rest). If a horse was injured and had slower workouts, same thing. Those vet records are an useful too, if the injury/event only is a few weeks back. If it states on the chart that a horse 5 months ago was lame, nobody cares.

They use it like an additional tool. Another thing they do is to check (regardless of what kind of injury) is when the vet said the horse was okay again to continue training/race again. That IS an important angle, if a horse only had 2 weeks of training since injury and starts again, they wouldn't be too high on placing a bet. It's not like they study what kind of injury it was etc. They check if a horse bled, how much time it got off and generally check how long the horse has been training again.

I would not want to put up the full record for ever little boo boo out there too (I never said they should do that, I gave you the examples of the HKJC), because too much misinterpretation going on (as others pointed out). Just the "horse bled from one nostril" and when the vet cleared it again. Or "horse lame in front left, suspensory injury" and again when the horse was cleared. Supsensory injury usually takes 3 months to heal, if the horse races again after 3 1/2 months it can't be in best form.

What would help horses and potential buyers is to really have the whole vet records stored with track management and they can decide if a horse is fit to be claimed. It won't be perfect, there's still ways to mask some injuries and dump horses, but it would be a start.

The one tip you got reminds me of the series Luck, where one gambler got the pick 6 because he bet the trainer, not the horse. And I heard that on the track too, that some people decipher the working patterns of trainers. That IMO is WAY harder than to take note of a vet record. Handicapping is serious theory crafting, so yeah, people would figure it out.

One thing to add - and that I think would never ever work in the US. They don't use private vets over there to clear the horses to work again, the vets are more like "officials".

Horse weight: if a horse lost quite some weight after shipping I would be hesitant to bet it. But that would have to be a bigger amount than 10 lbs. Weight fluctuates (water intake etc).
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Kurenai
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Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:13 pm

Btw, the way I did handicap is not that I place one thing highly on the priority list and forget about the other stuff. Had a big advantage when I used to bet regularly, because I knew every single horse (unless they shipped in from another country), track only had about 300 stabled there.

The way I do it now is to watch previous races, compare forms, for the big races like the BC I watch the workouts if I'm interested in a horse. And what's really important to me is to watch the horse in the post parade, how they behave etc. I can't really explain it... it's more of a "you see it when it's there". I'm not a great handicapper when it comes to US races, cause too many horses are wild cards for me, I don't know enough about them. But I too get some bets off with a 50:1 shot (Teufelsberg won me a lot of money) once in a while, where I'm wondering why nobody else saw that coming. Overall, I don't have enough time to seriously handicap races and I'm not the best. Usually I break about even, which is already good for me. :lol:
stark
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Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:34 pm

Thanks K
The only thing I would add is for American bettors and your example of a horse bleeding three weeks ago and that being a red flag.
If the trainer is Mandella or Brown or Clement or Motion or even Baffert for example I'd just have to ignore the Intel and figure they resolved the issue. Lesser trainers not so much, but that's just part of the puzzle we face in every race without vet records.
I'm just still having difficulty seeing where the good outweighs the bad, in our case in Calif the bad being PETA getting their grubby little hands on medical records then turning them over to their spinmasters publicity machine. Ouch.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Kurenai
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Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:56 pm

Yeah, one thing's for sure, they don't have Peta Zealots in China.

But as I said: What would help horses and potential buyers is to really have the whole vet records stored with track management and they can decide if a horse is fit to be claimed.

Really could prevent some ugly scenarios, where owners try to dump an injured horse (I know it won't be perfect, but still an improvement over how it is now).
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