The BC Picks and Analysis Thread

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Mylute
Posts: 3875
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:20 pm
Location: Alabama

Sat Nov 02, 2019 12:56 pm

I like Giant Expectations in the Dirt Mile. He's somewhat of a closer, so he should like the added distance. He also ran very well in his last race, and Catalina Cruiser just barely got by him. Had the race been a little longer, I dare say GE would've gotten back by him again and won.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
~ Peter Lorre 1904 - 1̶9̶6̶4̶ ∞
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Mylute
Posts: 3875
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:20 pm
Location: Alabama

Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:03 pm

Well I created a DRF account to play the DRF Win contest only to find out I am ineligible because I am not 21 (I'm 20).

So at 18 you're a legal adult, can consent, can vote, and can join the military, but I can't win a sweepstakes or similar contest until I'm 21?

Ok.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
~ Peter Lorre 1904 - 1̶9̶6̶4̶ ∞
stark
Posts: 5437
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:10 pm

I can't count how much money I've saved over the years by just drawing a line through the AOB horses. Never seem to be fair value here for all he's up against shipping to a faraway land like California.

Maybe I'll be kicking myself this year, but so far so good.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Izvestia
Posts: 4063
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:58 pm

F & M Sprint - Come Dancing
Turf Sprint - Pure Sensation/Stormy Liberal/Om
Dirt Mile - Omaha Beach/Mr Money
F & M Turf - Sistercharlie/Fleeting/Mrs Sippy
Sprint - Whitmore/Mitole/Catalina Cruiser
Mile - Circus Maximus/Uni/El Tormenta
Distaff - Midnight Bisou/Dunbar Road/Wow Cat
Turf - Bricks and Mortar/Anthony Van Dyck
Classic - Code of Honor/ Vino Rosso/Elate
stark
Posts: 5437
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:06 pm

Mylute wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:03 pm
Well I created a DRF account to play the DRF Win contest only to find out I am ineligible because I am not 21 (I'm 20).

So at 18 you're a legal adult, can consent, can vote, and can join the military, but I can't win a sweepstakes or similar contest until I'm 21?

Ok.
Just so you know, it's not DRF. You can't gamble in a Las Vegas casino either.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Mylute
Posts: 3875
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:20 pm
Location: Alabama

Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:15 pm

Where are the races being streamed? I don't get NBCSN anymore.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
~ Peter Lorre 1904 - 1̶9̶6̶4̶ ∞
MySaladDays
Posts: 1053
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:16 am

Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:18 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:50 am
I've seen a lot of debate about Owendale's stamina, and admittedly I'm basing my assumptions on visual appearance moreso than actual evidence. Will be interesting to watch, especially with this track in the mix.
THis is one of those opportunities that if you believe in a horse, you will be nicely rewarded. ;)
Tessablue
Posts: 4017
Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm

Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:20 pm

Kezzz__ wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 12:24 pm
There is a similar worry about Anthony Van Dyck with a few locals over here, he usually gets going late on so position will be vital for him, Old Persian is the Euro everyone wants. I hope forward positioning from last night isnt a clue for tonight as my Uni bet will look a little less convincing! I'm very much a fan of the juveniles so last night was enjoyable for me and I managed to find plenty of winners, so down on Dennis' Moment as if Sistercharlie, Midnigt Bisou and Code Of Honor win later then Dennis' Moment will have failed me for a £1,750 win :oops:
Ooh, very interesting that Old Persian is preferred over there! A lot of people debating between him and Anthony van Dyck; I much prefer him but might used AVD just in case. And that's really rough; if it's any consolation I think Midnight Bisou is presently considered one of the more vulnerable big favorites today.

Unfortunately the scratch of Bolo will make things even tougher in the Mile from a pace perspective... does Hey Gaman try to clear them from that outside post? Do a bunch of riders sense the pace vaccuum and make a bid for the front, ironically speeding up the pace? I want to spread in the Mile so I'll throw Lucullan in there; he's not completely paceless and could work out a nice trip.
Mylute wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:15 pm
Where are the races being streamed? I don't get NBCSN anymore.
I think you should be able to stream with the Breeders' Cup app: https://www.breederscup.com/official-apps
MySaladDays wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:18 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:50 am
I've seen a lot of debate about Owendale's stamina, and admittedly I'm basing my assumptions on visual appearance moreso than actual evidence. Will be interesting to watch, especially with this track in the mix.
THis is one of those opportunities that if you believe in a horse, you will be nicely rewarded. ;)
The beauty of betting on BC day :D
Kennedy
Posts: 1056
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:53 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:29 am
Sorry if I'm talking to myself in here; been making this thread for years and it's weird not to have Kennedy or peep in here to bounce ideas off of :(
Sorry I wasn't around to join in with the chat. Seems like you did just fine! Congrats. Enjoyed reading your analysis even retro-actively.

I've found that the demands on my time have meant that I had time to enjoy analyzing the Breeders' Cup and making my selections but I've not had the time to type it all out to be shared here. Hopefully next year.
Tessablue
Posts: 4017
Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm

Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:15 pm

Kennedy wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:53 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:29 am
Sorry if I'm talking to myself in here; been making this thread for years and it's weird not to have Kennedy or peep in here to bounce ideas off of :(
Sorry I wasn't around to join in with the chat. Seems like you did just fine! Congrats. Enjoyed reading your analysis even retro-actively.

I've found that the demands on my time have meant that I had time to enjoy analyzing the Breeders' Cup and making my selections but I've not had the time to type it all out to be shared here. Hopefully next year.
Great to hear from you Kennedy! You don't owe us anything, it's just nice to talk with you. I hope you had a successful BC- unfortunately a few big misses in some races really put a dent in mine. I think I've improved myy handicapping a lot, but bet construction is another beast entirely. Thanks for stopping to check in!
Kennedy
Posts: 1056
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:57 pm

Every time the Breeders' Cup is over I find myself going back over the races to try and see if I could see what should have been seen before the race.

One takeaway for me is that if I find myself looking at a race where there are two clear favorites and I don't like either of them I should have a bit more of an open mind to the rest of the group. This was the case in the Juvenile where I definitely detested Eight Rings based on the way he finished his races and because I always distrust a Baffert horse with speed who somehow fails to produce a bullet work in the morning leading up to a big race. It's basically his calling card of readiness. Dennis' Moment was a horse I was definitely willing to oppose because I think it's hard to come west and I'm also not a fan of the timing of his lat prep. I prefer juvenile runners generally who come out of the major preps.

But having said all that my skepticism only led me to Scabbard who basically had the same knocks as Dennis' Moment. I definitely should have had a more open mind to a horse like Storm the court who had experience over the track and was willing to reoppose Eight Rings despite the loss but overall I think something like the ALL button might be appropriate when these conditions are present.
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