2019 BC Turf

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stark
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Mon Oct 28, 2019 9:51 pm

1. Zulu Alpha, Michael Maker, Joe Ortiz, 20-1
2. Acclimate, Phil D’Amato, Martin Garcia, 20-1
3. United, Richard Mandella, Flavien Prat, 20-1
4. Mount Everest (IRE), Aidan O’Brien, Wayne Lordan, 15-1
5. Anthony Van Dyck (IRE), Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore, 3-1
6. Channel Cat, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 15-1
7. Alounak (FR), Waldemar Hickst, Clement Lecoeuvre, 20-1
8. Bandua, Jack Sisterson, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1
9. Bricks and Mortar, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, Jr., 9-5
10. Old Persian (GB), Charlie Appleby, William Buick 4-1
11. Arklow, Brad Cox, Javier Castellano, 12-1
12. Channel Maker, Bill Mott, John Velazquez, 10-1
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:06 pm

Handicapping insights courtesy of Andy Serling, NYRA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdNUzWXddwo
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Starine
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:23 pm

Is Bricks and Mortar an automatic toss at this distance?
carole
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:47 pm

If Bricks and Mortar doesn’t fire, I’m going for Old Persian and Channel Maker to make the top 3.

Not sure what sort of distances Bricks and Mortar has raced at before, but even if this is slightly long for him I believe his class and speed will carry him to a win here. The Euros this year aren’t on his level in my opinion.
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Mylute
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:54 pm

Don't think Bricks and Mortar is at all a toss, but I'm interested in Channel Maker. I was kind of hoping Sadler's Joy would run again this year, since he was America's best finisher (third) last year against Magical and Enable.

I was actually thinking about doing some real handicapping and betting this year, since I think this is a fun year to do it (since no real giant standouts in any race, other than Midnight Bisou and BaM), but I still find it so confusing. I'm listing to the latest HorseCenter as I type this and I have no idea where I would start.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
~ Peter Lorre 1904 - 1̶9̶6̶4̶ ∞
THIRTYSIXRED
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:01 pm

Bricks and Mortar should be just fine. There is precedent for horses stretching in this race and doing well. Magician would be a good example
Tessablue
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:03 pm

Mylute wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:54 pm
Don't think Bricks and Mortar is at all a toss, but I'm interested in Channel Maker. I was kind of hoping Sadler's Joy would run again this year, since he was America's best finisher (third) last year against Magical and Enable.

I was actually thinking about doing some real handicapping and betting this year, since I think this is a fun year to do it (since no real giant standouts in any race, other than Midnight Bisou and BaM), but I still find it so confusing. I'm listing to the latest HorseCenter as I type this and I have no idea where I would start.
I'm sure many of us would be happy to help on here! The BC is my favorite day of betting because you know so much about each horse and you can generally expect them to be at or near their best. There are a lot of different ways to approach it and everyone has their own style, but a fun easy bet in these big fields would be a three-horse exacta box. It costs $12 (or $6 to a $1 bet) and it is almost guaranteed to pay for itself in competitive fields like these. But please feel free to ask if you have any questions!
Somnambulist

Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:08 pm

Mylute wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:54 pm
Don't think Bricks and Mortar is at all a toss, but I'm interested in Channel Maker. I was kind of hoping Sadler's Joy would run again this year, since he was America's best finisher (third) last year against Magical and Enable.

I was actually thinking about doing some real handicapping and betting this year, since I think this is a fun year to do it (since no real giant standouts in any race, other than Midnight Bisou and BaM), but I still find it so confusing. I'm listing to the latest HorseCenter as I type this and I have no idea where I would start.
When I decided to get more serious about it, I would write down the horses I liked and the reasons behind it. There are truthfully no wrong reasons. It was helpful to compare my notes after the fact to what actually broke down. Note that I think these big days can be strange - weird things happen. I found it incredibly helpful and over the course of a few months I felt a got a lot better at things. My better half wanted to get into this as well and he's been doing this. Now he routinely hits all the time. The student surpasses the teacher, but in my defense I'm tired all the time.

At 9-5 you absolutely have to go against Bricks and Morter. You never know what to do with those O'Brien horses; either they burn you or they don't. Wish they all had a definable form on firm courses. I could talk myself onto Arklow.
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Mylute
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:17 pm

What confuses me the most is the terminology and the different ways/types of betting, like pick fours and so on.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
~ Peter Lorre 1904 - 1̶9̶6̶4̶ ∞
Somnambulist

Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:29 pm

Mylute wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:17 pm
What confuses me the most is the terminology and the different ways/types of betting, like pick fours and so on.
There is P5 beginning with race 1 (that would take you through races 1-5). I think these are generally the most fun to play because they get you involved in multiple races should you be fortunate enough to move forward. You just need the winner of each race but you can chose multiple horses They can get costly, though. They are usually offered on a rolling basis after that (i.e. R2-6).

Figured my own problem out: years are important Why I have a top result from 2012 is strange - petition Google better, BC!

Ok, 2019 wagering menu: https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... ls_set_123#
Last edited by Somnambulist on Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
stark
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:33 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:29 pm
Mylute wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:17 pm
What confuses me the most is the terminology and the different ways/types of betting, like pick fours and so on.
There is P5 beginning with race 1 (that would take you through races 1-5). I think these are generally the most fun to play because they get you involved in multiple races should you be fortunate enough to move forward. You just need the winner of each race but you can chose multiple horses They can get costly, though.

This is when racing does itself a disservice, because this is saying the P4 starts with the Turf Sprint on Saturday as R4.: https://www.breederscup.com/article/bre ... -announced

This says R4 is something different: https://www.breederscup.com/article/201 ... mpionships.

I am way tired now so maybe I'm wrong but it looks like someone didn't proofread.
Or this.....if you don't know what a P4 or P5 is, you certainly shouldn't be betting it. The experts have trouble hitting 'em. Just be happy with a good ol' win bet and your horse pays $27, congrats!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
thinair
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:35 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:08 pm


At 9-5 you absolutely have to go against Bricks and Morter. You never know what to do with those O'Brien horses; either they burn you or they don't. Wish they all had a definable form on firm courses. I could talk myself onto Arklow.
Why would anyone "absolutely" go against Bricks and Mortar at 9:5?
Somnambulist

Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:40 pm

I think it's a short price for a horse that has never run at this distance, and I figure he dips. There's nothing in his pedigree that suggest he'll either love or it hate it, and I just guess I see better value here when you have horses getting Lasix for the first time, or for the first time after a spell.

I don't like that Chad waffled between this and a race 2 furlongs shorter. He is the expert though... definitely not me. I don't have the resources to bet at the moment so I'm just doing it for the mental exercise, and I'm out of practice. My opinion is worth less that I'm not betting it.
thinair
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:42 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:40 pm
I think it's a short price for a horse that has never run at this distance. There's nothing in his pedigree that suggest he'll either love or it hate it, and I just guess I see better value here when you have horses getting Lasix for the first time, or for the first time after a spell.

I don't like that Chad waffled between this and a race 2 furlongs shorter. He is the expert though... definitely not me.
It's a misconception that Chad was waffling. It was an internal debate and there were a lot of factors involved. Chad pretty much always wanted to run him in this race.
Somnambulist

Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:43 pm

thinair wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:42 pm
It's a misconception that Chad was waffling. It was an internal debate and there were a lot of factors involved. Chad pretty much always wanted to run him in this race.
To be fair, us peons don't have access to that type of information.
thinair
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:46 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:43 pm
thinair wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:42 pm
It's a misconception that Chad was waffling. It was an internal debate and there were a lot of factors involved. Chad pretty much always wanted to run him in this race.
To be fair, us peons don't have access to that type of information.
Sigh.
Tessablue
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:47 pm

Mylute wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:17 pm
What confuses me the most is the terminology and the different ways/types of betting, like pick fours and so on.
Aside from your classic win/place/show bets, there are two basic ways to bet: vertically and horizontally. Vertical bets- exactas, trifectas, and superfectas- are entirely contained within the race itself. You just have to pick the top two, three, or four horses in order. My favorite vertical bets are the exacta box, where you pick multiple horses and win money if any of them come in 1-2 in any order, and the trifecta key, in which I think one horse is very likely to win so I put them in first and fill in the second and third place finishers behind them.

As an example, tomorrow I really like Dennis' Moment to win. I also think Scabbard, Anneau d'Or, and Eight Rings are the most likely to finish second or third. So I'm going to bet a $2 three-horse exacta box: Dennis' Moment, Scabbard, and Anneau d'Or. I'm also going to bet a trifecta key in which I place Dennis' Moment in first, then Scabbard, Anneau d'Or, and Eight Rings in second and third. Both bets will cost $12 each. In other races which are more evenly matched, like the Juvenile Fillies Turf, I'll probably just stick to exactas.

Horizontal bets, on the other hand, take place across multiple races and only care about the winners of these races. A pick 3 is three winners in a row, and pick 4 is four, etc. Not every race offers every type of horizontal bet, but most offer a daily double, in which you pick two winners in a row. You can choose multiple horses per race so horizontal bets can get expensive very quickly. They also become more difficult the longer the sequence is, but they can pay out very handsomely. For another example, tomorrow there is a pick 5 offered starting with the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Anyone who bets the winners of all five BC races tomorrow will hit the pick 5, and will likely win a very nice amount of money. But there's also several pick 3s offered as well, so if I felt really good about the first three BC races, I could just stick to those and save some money (alas, I stronlgy dislike the Juvenile Filles, and that's right in the middle).

If you find there's a race in which you're really excited about multiple horses, or if you just can't pick a horse you feel good about as the winner, verticals are the way to go. I'd recommend some exacta boxes as a starter bet. If you feel very strongly that multiple horses in sequential races are going to win, think about horizontal bets- just be careful not to let them get too expensive. I'm traditionally a vertical bettor and I think those bets are overall more fun and profitable, but last year I expanded to horizontals in the BC and it went really well. And of course there's no shame in WPS bets either! It takes time and practice to really learn what you enjoy betting.
Somnambulist

Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:48 pm

Was it common knowledge? I don't really know.. I work a lot. I can't keep up with this game like I used to.
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Mylute
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:13 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:40 pm
I think it's a short price for a horse that has never run at this distance, and I figure he dips. There's nothing in his pedigree that suggest he'll either love or it hate it, and I just guess I see better value here when you have horses getting Lasix for the first time, or for the first time after a spell.

I don't like that Chad waffled between this and a race 2 furlongs shorter. He is the expert though... definitely not me. I don't have the resources to bet at the moment so I'm just doing it for the mental exercise, and I'm out of practice. My opinion is worth less that I'm not betting it.
I just perused BaM's pedigree. There is some stamina influence on the dam side- Stage Door Johnny (Belmont), Seattle Slew (Belmont), and Exceller (JCGC when it was 1 1/2). I find this comforts my opinion that BaM should be able to stretch out.
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
~ Peter Lorre 1904 - 1̶9̶6̶4̶ ∞
MySaladDays
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Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:02 am

I think I have to go with a Euro horse in this one, either one of the obrien's or appleby's horse. This is a tough race to figure if you don't absolutely love a certain horse.
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