Breeders Cup Discussion?

stark
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Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:09 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:01 pm
I hate handicapping the turf. I'm literal trash at it.
Probably not, a lot depends on what handicapping tools you are using, for example Beyer speed figures are notoriously bad for turf races. Do you've got to consider your sources.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Somnambulist

Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:11 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:07 pm
Somnambulist wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:01 pm
I hate handicapping the turf. I'm literal trash at it.
Don't feel bad, I 'm not sure these fully qualify as turf races...

Iridessa was a great example of the value of checking overseas markets. 5-1 clear second favorite abroad, 13-1 here. Still, it's awfully tough to judge where these horses are going to be early. How on earth do we evaluate the Mile, a paceless race run over a pace-favoring course?
We sit it out and try to figure out how to beat Midnight Bisou. :?:
Last edited by Somnambulist on Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Curtis
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Location: Monroe, WA
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Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:11 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:07 pm
Curtis wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:04 pm
Somnambulist wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:01 pm
I hate handicapping the turf. I'm literal trash at it.
Don’t feel bad, I had the Dorf, er I mean Ward mare.
It eludes me. At some point I had hoped to get smarter about it!
I have no problem when they all have some domestic form. It’s assessing how “good” turf in Europe equates to the green version of the 210 Freeway they have at Santa Anita that throws me off.
Somnambulist

Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:13 pm

Curtis wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:11 pm
I have no problem when they all have some domestic form. It’s assessing how “good” turf in Europe equates to the green version of the 210 Freeway they have at Santa Anita that throws me off.
That's the truth. The only BC turf event I ever had a winner for was Tepin, but I let a Ragozin podcast talk me off her in 2015 and proceeded to bet every other horse in the field but her. I'm not sure I've recovered.
Tessablue
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Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm

Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:18 pm

I think BC turf events are a lot more difficult than the average turf race, which is all about class, distance, and ground. Not that I'm doing great this year, but I've found that looking at overseas odds while cross-checking trainer stats can be incredibly helpful. Some Euro trainers have absurdly good records, other are like 25-0-0-0. I think some are just better than others at gauging which horses will be successful and preparing them accordingly. On a course like this, however, I think you just go with whomever has some pace and likes it firm. Not looking great for Bricks and Mortar in the Turf right now.

Shancelot favored, huh.... I might do a little with Matera Sky in here.
Somnambulist

Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:34 pm

Mitole looks absolutely aces.
Tessablue
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Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:35 pm

He sure does. Will be cheering him on all the way here. Shancelot very warm...
Kezzz__
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Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:35 pm

Shancelot getting warm in the prelims
Somnambulist

Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:37 pm

I cannot stand Randy Moss.

I wish it was the other Randy Moss commenting.
Somnambulist

Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:39 pm

YES!

Man, he is just so GOOD.
Last edited by Somnambulist on Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Tessablue
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Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:39 pm

What a HORSE!
Kezzz__
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Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:40 pm

He looked wonderful, polar opposite to Shancelot, and his works in the week were brilliant. He's a monster.
Tessablue
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Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:41 pm

Yay for Whitmore too! And Shancelot was fantastic. Just ran into an absolute monster. Mitole looked like a winner from the first few strides.
Kezzz__
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Joined: Mon Oct 28, 2019 10:59 am

Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:42 pm

Shancelot took some pushing to get into stride I felt, and his warmness coupling that meant his chance was gone, he must have some talent to keep plugging on to hold 2nd. Happy for Santana Jr
Tessablue
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Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:42 pm

Awww what a sweet interview. He gave such a good ride!
Last edited by Anonymous on Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Somnambulist

Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:42 pm

Santana loving on this horse just now is just great.
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Treve
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Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:44 pm

Happy for Whitmore he really gave it a good run - and Mitole what a horse!

And I agree about the Turf. I'm ok handicapping overseas and domestically but I can't figure out for the life of me when they collide.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Kezzz__
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Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:45 pm

Got Stormy being backed here in England, now joint favourite with Circus Maximus Without Parole now 11/1, hope plenty of people took those 18s and 20s!
Tessablue
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Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:47 pm

Kezzz__ wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:45 pm
Got Stormy being backed here in England, now joint favourite with Circus Maximus Without Parole now 11/1, hope plenty of people took those 18s and 20s!
He's 10-1 here :( Got Stormy and Uni joint faves. Is Hey Gaman getting any play? He's cold on the board over here.
Somnambulist

Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:48 pm

Kezzz__ wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:45 pm
Got Stormy being backed here in England, now joint favourite with Circus Maximus Without Parole now 11/1, hope plenty of people took those 18s and 20s!
This is much appreciated info.
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