Kentucky Derby Selections

MySaladDays
Posts: 1019
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:16 am

Sat May 04, 2019 8:45 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 8:41 pm
MySaladDays wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 8:39 pm
MySaladDays wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 2:22 pm
1-13-14-16 & 20 box em up
For superfecta, play the #4 and #8 in fourth place

side bets
w/p/s win win win
w/p/s plus que
w/p/s country house.
Got the exacta as well as my w/p/sh's on Country House.

It turned out to be a very profitable day for me. Surprisingly for a change.

$2 Exacta $3009.60
20 $132.40 $56.60 $24.60
Congratulations, fantastic picks!!
Thank you Tessa. As you can see I"m kinda beating myself up for putting the #8 in fourth place. Oh well. That would have been over $5K for just 50 cents.


I just wasn't that fond of him, like vekoma I didn't like that he doesn't seem to run in a straight line.
MySaladDays
Posts: 1019
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:16 am

Sat May 04, 2019 8:51 pm

and I hate to say this but I personally think it's "provident" that jason servis doesn't end up having the flashlight on him.

It's been discussed quite a bit on other forums, a 45% stat that even the best Hall of Famers never came close to ..... There is way too much controversy surrounding him and i think he may not realize that it's better than he isn't put in the spotlight.

I had the utmost respect for John C. Servis though.

I hope this doesn't offend anyone, though i know it will, but that's just me being honest.
Tessablue
Posts: 3850
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:29 am
Location: Boston

Sat May 04, 2019 8:57 pm

MySaladDays wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 8:45 pm

Thank you Tessa. As you can see I"m kinda beating myself up for putting the #8 in fourth place. Oh well. That would have been over $5K for just 50 cents.


I just wasn't that fond of him, like vekoma I didn't like that he doesn't seem to run in a straight line.
I know that feeling, but there will always be a bigger pot to hit and you did so well already. And you did a great job handicapping to have him that close in the first place. I'm also in awe of your WPS on Country House! I used him in some exactas, but mostly stuck him 3rd/4th in exotics and didn't have the guts to back him up top.

Personally, I'm mostly happy with my handicapping- after the DQ I didn't have anything, but I think there were more hits than misses with the obvious exceptions of Maximum Security and Code of Honor. I genuinely thought Code of Honor had no shot here, so kudos to those who used him. Got the Bafferts exactly right and I'm happy Tacitus ran so well. He's a very nice horse. Watching the race again, By My Standards was pretty much eliminated at the start and ended up way too far back; hope to see him get another chance somewhere. War of Will might have been the biggest surprise (even moreso than Master Fencer). Horse has a lot of heart.

I try to always walk away from the Derby having learned something concrete... this year, it might just be "don't say anything can happen, you might jinx it." ;)

RE: your point on Servis, I think it's a good one and I'm a bit surprised none of that conversation ever made it over here. I lurk at PaceAdvantage and Thoro-Graph this time of year and they certainly aren't shy about expressing their opinions on that front.
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Mylute
Posts: 3407
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:20 pm
Location: Alabama

Sat May 04, 2019 9:07 pm

I didn't say anything public on the board (because I have superstitions about jinxing, lol), but while I didn't think any of the Bafferts were superstars, I'm kind of surprised not one of them hit the board.

Had it not been a slopfest it may have been different, but I still didn't see any of them winning (or winning by open lengths).

I did say I was concerned about Bellafina though.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
MySaladDays
Posts: 1019
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:16 am

Sun May 05, 2019 12:12 am

Mylute wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:07 pm
while I didn't think any of the Bafferts were superstars, I'm kind of surprised not one of them hit the board.
People are afraid to leave out the Bafferts. I watched him lose at Oaklawn this year so I was not really thinking he ALWAYS wins everything.

saw one wager today that if the person had left out the baffert's (they had them all in place position) that would have had the trifecta. They lost $5K+ including them.

the talking heads have people talked into stuff too.

I don't look at horse's odds, I handicap specifically on the sheets before the odds are put on the PPs. I am mostly a pedigree handcapper in maiden races and ones like these, where horses are doing something for first time. I know people phoo phoo that, but it actually works very well for me. But it is a lot of work.....much more than PPs only.

So it is not entirely unusual for me to pick a 30-1 shot or a 50-1 shot, because I don't look at the odds until I"m all done and have made my selections. I never think "oh , this horse can't possibly win because he's 50-1". I had the Larry Jones Stuper Steed at Oaklawn, that one was about 50-1 or a little more?

I tell new horse players never look at odds. Pick your horses first, and then decided afterwards if they are too chalky to turn a profit, in which case, just skip the race.
Kennedy
Posts: 1054
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Mon May 06, 2019 5:32 pm

I think the race ended up being really interesting from a tactical perspective.

The pace started quickly and you thought fireworks may ensue but then they really backed off the gas and all of the sudden the closers were the ones in the wrong spot. The Speed of the Speed really got the upper hand here and it's hard not to think a bit about how Omaha Beach may have affected this race.

Before the race I think a few people pointed to the parallels between Giacomo and Country House. Both solid and unspectacular. Neither seemed good enough to win and both got a bit of luck and changed their style in the Derby which wound up being key. Giacomo was a stalker who never really dropped off the pace much in his preps yet in the Derby he was way back and got lucky with a hot pace falling into his lap. Country House was accustomed to dropping well off the pace but did anyone notice how close he was early?

If I look at the running lines of Country House and Game Winner in the first 3 calls it's a shocking reversal of what you'd expect

Country House - 9th (6 3/4), 8th (4 3/4), 9th (4 1/4)
Game Winner - 18th (19), 18th (14), 17th (8 1/4)

Prat did a wonderful job of getting Country House up into the game early on and ultimately that paid off huge. Breaking one from the outside I'm amazed that Prat got this sluggish horse up there in front of many handier types. I really doubt that he finishes ahead of Code of Honor if he were to be given that one run off the pace trip.

Speaking of Code of Honor...why didn't he win the Derby? As Maximum Security was floating wide then came sharply back in Code of Honor caught my eye and I thought "he's the winner" but the stretch he just did nothing and let Maximum Security and Country House just draw slowly away from him. Shocking finish from a horse that most people thought of as a good finisher.

In terms of finishing. I think you need to be impressed with Maximum Security. His figures and fractions hinted that he might be the best closer in the race and while horses like Tacitus and Game Winner likely had better closing fractions on this day Maximum Security was pretty impressive going man to man with Country House and Code of Honor and pulling away.
BaroqueAgain1
Posts: 10426
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Mon May 06, 2019 5:46 pm

"Speaking of Code of Honor...why didn't he win the Derby? As Maximum Security was floating wide then came sharply back in Code of Honor..."

When MaxS veered back in toward the rail, I think he made contact with CoH as that one was accelerating up the rail. IMHO, that bump may have been a hard one and, coming on top of CoH running hard to make it through that hole, it could have taken the starch out of the Noble Mission colt.
peeptoad
Posts: 2846
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Mon May 06, 2019 6:12 pm

He doesn't want to go as far as 10f imho
Kennedy
Posts: 1054
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Tue May 07, 2019 11:06 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 5:46 pm
"Speaking of Code of Honor...why didn't he win the Derby? As Maximum Security was floating wide then came sharply back in Code of Honor..."

When MaxS veered back in toward the rail, I think he made contact with CoH as that one was accelerating up the rail. IMHO, that bump may have been a hard one and, coming on top of CoH running hard to make it through that hole, it could have taken the starch out of the Noble Mission colt.
I saw that as well but even if it was hard it was very brief and they had the whole lane to run it out.

I'm inclined to agree with Peeptoad. I think Code of Honor didn't have 10f in him at this point. Horses are usually able to get more distance as they mature but I think Code of Honor had every chance here and probably should have taken it. Even if he could have outfinished Country House we'd be toasting him as the winner.
katmandu
Posts: 1193
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:16 am

Tue May 07, 2019 1:28 pm

Kennedy wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 11:06 am
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 5:46 pm
"Speaking of Code of Honor...why didn't he win the Derby? As Maximum Security was floating wide then came sharply back in Code of Honor..."

When MaxS veered back in toward the rail, I think he made contact with CoH as that one was accelerating up the rail. IMHO, that bump may have been a hard one and, coming on top of CoH running hard to make it through that hole, it could have taken the starch out of the Noble Mission colt.
I saw that as well but even if it was hard it was very brief and they had the whole lane to run it out.

I'm inclined to agree with Peeptoad. I think Code of Honor didn't have 10f in him at this point. Horses are usually able to get more distance as they mature but I think Code of Honor had every chance here and probably should have taken it. Even if he could have outfinished Country House we'd be toasting him as the winner.
Shug says the Dwyer is next, that's probably a clue.

Before the KD, in an interview, (and I can't quite remember what he meant to say/the question), Shug called COH a one turn horse, and then quickly corrected himself. For me, Sigmund Freud came to mind.
peeptoad
Posts: 2846
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Tue May 07, 2019 1:37 pm

I bet he tears it up in the Dwyer... A solid pace at 8-8.5 should be perfect for him.
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