Kentucky Derby Selections

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Mylute
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Sat May 04, 2019 1:18 pm

ElPrado2 wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 12:13 pm
Of course, the fact that another grey haired trainer had his entire barn come down with a virus 32 seconds after the testing standards were announced as changed beginning with Saratoga and not win a race the entire meet unless he shipped out of state is completely irrelevant. And he usually rules Saratoga.
He did manage a few wins at GPW.
Big think...
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Big Ten
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Sat May 04, 2019 1:33 pm

7 Justify (3-1)
6 Good Magic (10-1)
5 Audible (7-1)

$1 tri paid $141.

7 Maximum Security (9-2?)
6 Vekoma (22-1?)
5 Improbable (5-1?)

Could be a 7-6-5 trifecta again this year. We will have an idea of who wins the roses within the first 45-50 seconds of the race. If the numbers 7-6-5 are there at the half-mile, it's going to be one of those horses.

One of Baffert's trio is going to gun for the lead. I used to think it was Roadster but it could be Improbable with the better post position and his recent workouts at Churchill.

Same ownership as Justify, so they plan to use the same strategy as last year's. If one of those Baffert's horses is NOT in the Top 3 early on, Baffert is NOT going to win the Derby.

I know Baffert or one of his connections is reading this. One of his horses needs to press the pace or none of his three will stand a chance.

It's obvious this is the plan when you watch his Triple Crown winners doing it. Four of Baffert's five Derby winners all had early speed.

1997 - Silver Charm
2002 - War Emblem
2015 - American Pharoah
2018 - Justify
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Tessablue
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Sat May 04, 2019 1:53 pm

My last bit of spam for y'all.

13. Code of Honor

What to like: He has a great trainer in his corner, and he's coming off of a performance where he was drastically impacted by the slow pace. He's a very talented colt who clearly took a step forward in his first start at 3 and he can run from most anywhere in the pack. Johnny V chose him over a Pletcher and he's working very well, although it appears he is not being overlooked in here as he currently sits at an ungenerous 13-1.
What not to like: His win in the Fountain of Youth was heavily aided by the pace, and even then it probably could have been a little better. He was completely empty in the Florida Derby and I strongly disliked the way he lugged in late during that race. His turn of foot is not particularly impressive and he really gives the appearance of a horse who will benefit from a cutback later in the year.
Ideal trip: He probably needs to save as much ground as possible to stand a chance at this distance, while avoiding traffic and staying around midpack until the final turn. If he drops too far back early, I don't think he can make it up.
How's the pedigree?: His sire was a wonderful racehorse, but overall I read miler from his pedigree.
Least-surprising finish: Bottom half of the field

14. Win Win Win

What to like: He always runs his hardest and he's still waiting on an ideal race scenario. He was very wide in the Tampa Bay Derby and ran admirably in his first try around two turns, and in the Blue Grass he was one of the only horses on the entire card who made up ground in the stretch over what appeared to be a very speed-favoring track. He has a bit of brilliance and his fastest race, even though it was at 7f, is good enough to win this. He never quits and his recent work, where he engaged Tacitus and Country House and then refused to get passed in the gallop out, was a great illustration of his toughness.
What not to like: He just hasn't been very fast while routing. His last two races simply aren't good enough to place here, and he'll need to avoid traffic to get his best shot. He very well may prefer to cut back to one turn after this race.
Ideal trip: I think he needs to drop way out of it, then split the field on the final turn and finish best of all.
How's the pedigree?: Certainly one of the more intriguing in the field. He's got a solid mix of speed and stamina, and it's awesome to see a Sunday Silence line colt run in this race. I wouldn't say his pedigree leans one way or the other, distance-wise.
Least-surprising finish: 5th-8th

15. Master Fencer

Honestly, I don't have anything on this guy. From what I can gather, he would be one of the biggest shocks in Derby history if he picked up a piece here.

16. Game Winner

What to like: He's tough as they come and he's competed at a higher level for a longer time than anyone here. He's not going to quit in the stretch and he can handle all sorts of adversity early. He nearly ran down the previous favorite for this race after experiencing major training disruptions, and he was extremely wide in the Santa Anita Derby prior to his narrow loss in that race. He's very consistent, his back class is impressive, his best race can win this, and he has one of the best Derby trainers in the game. Has Rosario.
What not to like: Has he truly taken a step forward from 2 to 3? It doesn't really seem like it, and his best form at 2 still wasn't that much of a standout compared to his peers. The Juvenile form really hasn't held up, and he's lost both times he's faced quality contestants. His typical running style takes him very wide early, perhaps because he doesn't like taking kickback, and his post does him no favors in that respect. He's not head-and-shoulders over the rest of these, so it's unlikely he'll be able to overcome a wide trip in the way that American Pharoah did four years ago. Has Rosario.
Ideal trip: He needs to stay clear without being wide. Ideally, a fast pace strings the field out and he's able to cut in and lay back two wide, a few lengths behind and clear of the early pace.
How's the pedigree?: Again, Candy Ride doesn't necessarily impart stamina. But with AP Indy underneath, he probably has nothing to worry about.
Least-surprising finish: 3rd-7th

17. Roadster

What to like: He has been the buzz horse for nearly a year now, and Baffert usually has a pretty good idea of what he's working with. In the Santa Anita Derby he stepped way up in class while also stepping up in distance and mixing up his running style, and he was still able to run down his stablemate on a track that wasn't all that favorable to closers. He has steadily improved and may be primed to fire his best shot third off the layoff for his Derby-dominating trainer, and now we know he can handle being inside and running anywhere. Essentially, his talent is an unknown quantity here, and his ceiling may be higher than anyone else's.
What not to like: He's currently dead on the board, especially for a Baffert, and I think there's a reason for it. He just doesn't have the it factor you expect from his best horses, and to be honest, I don't think the Santa Anita Derby was a particularly fast race. Shortly after the race, Craig Milkowski at Timeform talked about how it was extremely difficult to judge because the Big Cap was so much faster. According to him, the Beyer for this race assumed that the track changed before the final stakes. However, he- and apparently the people at Brisnet- thought it was unlikely that Santa Anita would touch the track on a very high-pressure day, and so the Timeform and Brisnet ratings for this race are very slow. On the eye test I'm inclined to agree with them- I don't think Instagrand should have been that close at the finish, and I don't know how much more this horse has to give. He also can't get the same trip he received in his last race and win this.
Ideal trip: I honestly don't know. He can clearly run on different parts of the track, but he absolutely cannot fall back, save ground, and close again in a race like the Derby. I suppose he just needs to grind home past everyone.
How's the pedigree?: Quality Road could handle 10f, jury is still out whether his offspring can. Lot of speed on the bottom and his dam was a pure sprinter. Would not be surprised if 9f turns out to be his ceiling.
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the top 10

18. Long Range Toddy

What to like: His Rebel was pretty good! He ran down one of the big favorites in this race and looked pretty good doing it. He may have just hated the slop in his last race, and he's been pretty consistent besides it. Versatile running style and the ability to sit inside, and if you like him you'll certainly get your price.
What not to like: He just doesn't seem to be very good. He got a perfect setup in the Rebel and hasn't really shown that quality elsewhere. His last race was terrible and his recent works have not been anything to write home about. It's tough to see him getting another great setup while also taking a bit step forward here.
Ideal trip: I think he needs to fall back here and look for a spot inside to save ground and come running in the stretch.
How's the pedigree?: Pretty speedy, although there's some real quality underneath. If he likes 10f, you can thank Pleasant Colony and Northern Dancer.
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field.

19. Spinoff

What to like: If you like By My Standards, why not like this guy too? He may have even run better in that race, as he went very wide only to get run down late. He is being completely ignored in the betting, but he's rapidly improving and also has some real tactical speed. Pletcher, for all his critcism in the Derby, has had far less likely horses hit the board.
What not to like: Johnny V jumped off him to get on Code of Honor, and you don't like to see a horse get passed in the stretch of his final Derby prep. His finish in that race, coupled with his pedigree and his short, stout body, suggests that 9f is his ceiling. His post did him no favors, and even if he guns and clears early he'll have some company up front. I can't blame anyone for liking him and he's probably a much better horse than his odds indicate, but it's a very tall task.
Ideal trip: Breaks like a shot and cuts over to lay off a slow pace.
How's the pedigree?: Not great for this Derby. Hard Spun isn't a minus, but throw in Gone West and Cozzene and through his sprinter/miler dam, and you've got a pedigree that couldn't yell "8-9f" any louder.
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field.

20. Country House

What to like: He's been running against some good horses, and he always does something. The fact that he isn't really close at the finish is masking his gradual improvement, and he's a big horse with a top trainer who can handle being pelted with mud and dirt. Better than almost anyone in here, he fits the standard as a clunky longshot who can always be counted on to make some sort of run and hits the super at huge odds.
What not to like: He... doesn't actually close that well. He lost some pretty considerable ground in the stretch of his last two. He's not fast enough to win at present and his best races all came with clear pace setups. He's heavily dependent on the pace in this race and he needs a clean trip to get there.
Ideal trip: Waaay back off a complete meltdown
How's the pedigree?: Lookin at Lucky doesn't appear to be a negative, and his bottom line is a bit of a mixed bag between War Chant and Sky Classic. A bit surprising this guy didn't take to turf in his first start, but 10f shouldn't be too much of a stretch based on his pedigree.
Least-surprising finish: 3rd-7th

21. Bodexpress

What to like: He ran genuinely well in the Florida Derby while taking a big step up in both class and distance. Based on his previous start he's also pretty quick, he can put himself anywhere, he's improving, and he does look physically like a horse who is moving forward and won't mind a step up in distance. He's also likely to be the longest shot on the board, so if you like him, go for it!
What not to like: Aside from the obvous, he had an incredible setup in the Florida Derby and still couldn't make up any ground in the stretch. Because the pace in that race was so bizarre, it's very hard to get a handle on his actual ability. You could argue that any horse in the world would have run second with that trip.
Ideal trip: The outside post is tough, so I think he needs to converse ground however he can, whether that's laying off the pace or falling back a little towards midpack.
How's the pedigree?: What is it with all these young sires? Bodemeister could obviously get 10f, no idea if his offspring can. City Zip and Meadowlake underneath fail to provide confidence in this distance.
Least-surprising finish: Midpack
Last edited by Anonymous on Sat May 04, 2019 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
MySaladDays
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Sat May 04, 2019 2:22 pm

1-13-14-16 & 20 box em up
For superfecta, play the #4 and #8 in fourth place

side bets
w/p/s win win win
w/p/s plus que
w/p/s country house.
middleground
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Sat May 04, 2019 3:05 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 1:53 pm
My last bit of spam for y'all.
Per usual, interesting, informative, and funny.
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pointgivenfan
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Sat May 04, 2019 3:25 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 1:53 pm
21. Bodexpress

How's the pedigree?: What is it with all these young sires? Bodemeister could obviously get 10f, no idea if his offspring can. City Zip and Meadowlake underneath fail to provide confidence in this distance.
Always Dreaming did. ;)
"I am the man who with the utmost daring discovered what had been discovered before." - G.K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy.
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Tessablue
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Sat May 04, 2019 3:29 pm

pointgivenfan wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 3:25 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 1:53 pm
21. Bodexpress

How's the pedigree?: What is it with all these young sires? Bodemeister could obviously get 10f, no idea if his offspring can. City Zip and Meadowlake underneath fail to provide confidence in this distance.
Always Dreaming did. ;)
WHOOPS. Oh man, I'm getting old. Bodemeister is still a freshman sire in my head. Thanks for pointing out that oversight... and for the existential crisis ;)
middleground wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 3:05 pm
Per usual, interesting, informative, and funny.
Much appreciated! Thanks for reading.

Putting them all together, these are my final standings:

Win contenders: Tacitus, By My Standards, Improbable
Use underneath: Game Winner, Tax, Win Win Win, Country House

Best of luck to everyone today!
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pointgivenfan
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Sat May 04, 2019 3:36 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 3:29 pm
pointgivenfan wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 3:25 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 1:53 pm
21. Bodexpress

How's the pedigree?: What is it with all these young sires? Bodemeister could obviously get 10f, no idea if his offspring can. City Zip and Meadowlake underneath fail to provide confidence in this distance.
Always Dreaming did. ;)
WHOOPS. Oh man, I'm getting old. Bodemeister is still a freshman sire in my head. Thanks for pointing out that oversight... and for the existential crisis ;)
Girl, you know I'm in the same boat. :lol:
"I am the man who with the utmost daring discovered what had been discovered before." - G.K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy.
Avatar: Goldikova - 2010 Prix de la Foret, copyright yours truly. =)
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PostTimeMike
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Location: Big Easy

Sat May 04, 2019 4:21 pm

Live "sentimental" selections!!! :D

Always pulling for Fair Grounds entrants!!! 8-)

#1 War of Will - In honor of "Half Dollar" Bill Gone 10 years ago. WW2 Navy vet. sharing his "Skybox" seats with "Tribal Council" Howell (gone 5 years this coming Monday)!!

#3 By My Standards - Louisiana Derby Winner

#19 Spinoff Hard Spun son!!!

Good luck and good racing!!!! :D 8-)
tachyon
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Sat May 04, 2019 5:21 pm

W/S on Win Win Win!
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Northport
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Sat May 04, 2019 6:10 pm

Roadster/Code of Honor/Spinoff
weeeeeeeee
Izvestia
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Sat May 04, 2019 6:12 pm

Tacitus/Vekoma/Tax

Longshot: Country House
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Mylute
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Sat May 04, 2019 6:20 pm

Longshot: Long Range Toddy
"I'm here, free as the wind, fountain of extraordinary knowledge, splendidly corrupt, and eager to be of profitable service."
~ Peter Lorre 1904 - 1̶9̶6̶4̶ ∞
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ThreeMustangs
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Sat May 04, 2019 6:27 pm

I will take the 13-1 on Code of Honor, thank you very much. I love this little chestnut guy. Plus, Shug. Going to box him with Roadster.
Tessablue
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Sat May 04, 2019 6:28 pm

My very messy bets are in. Ended up using Tax a lot underneath and throwing some W/P money on Spinoff in light of the Louisiana Derby form. Mostly tossed Game Winner, he can beat me.
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Raven
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Sat May 04, 2019 6:35 pm

Code of Honor,Game Winner
You will soon break the bow if you keep it always stretched ~Faedus~
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Big Ten
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Sat May 04, 2019 6:41 pm

My final pick was my initial pick all along -

Improbable

Final Top 5
1. Improbable
2. Maximum Security
3. Vekoma
4. Tacitus
5. Game Winner

4-1 chalk with an unproven trainer, unproven jockey, zero wins at Churchill or outside Florida for that matter, and slow works is not worth it for me at those odds.

Maximum Security may NOT be among the early leaders and he looks a little flustered while Improbable looks like he is ready to rock.

Reminds me of Melisandre in the recent Game of Thrones episode, The Long Night. Improbable and Bob Baffert is going to come through in the clutch!
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Izvestia
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Sat May 04, 2019 7:23 pm

Izvestia wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 6:12 pm
Tacitus/Vekoma/Tax

Longshot: Country House
:lol:
Well, I cannot actually believe it.
MySaladDays
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Sat May 04, 2019 8:39 pm

MySaladDays wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 2:22 pm
1-13-14-16 & 20 box em up
For superfecta, play the #4 and #8 in fourth place

side bets
w/p/s win win win
w/p/s plus que
w/p/s country house.
Got the exacta as well as my w/p/sh's on Country House.

It turned out to be a very profitable day for me. Surprisingly for a change.

$2 Exacta $3009.60
20 $132.40 $56.60 $24.60

Congrats to everyone who had Country House to win. It was a pedigree play for me (plus I was in the process of selling my cabin in the wood aka country house so that kinda nailed down the superstitiion part LOL Look at his pedigree.
Last edited by MySaladDays on Sat May 04, 2019 8:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Tessablue
Posts: 4017
Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm

Sat May 04, 2019 8:41 pm

MySaladDays wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 8:39 pm
MySaladDays wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 2:22 pm
1-13-14-16 & 20 box em up
For superfecta, play the #4 and #8 in fourth place

side bets
w/p/s win win win
w/p/s plus que
w/p/s country house.
Got the exacta as well as my w/p/sh's on Country House.

It turned out to be a very profitable day for me. Surprisingly for a change.

$2 Exacta $3009.60
20 $132.40 $56.60 $24.60
Congratulations, fantastic picks!!
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