2019 Kentucky Derby

Spahny
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Sat May 04, 2019 8:50 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 8:22 pm
Also, here's a picture from that twitter thread CQ posted (specifically from https://twitter.com/papabear11865/statu ... 4952988676):

Image

Terrifying.
War of Will is a little star-crossed, isn't he? That was very close to being very, very bad.

He's just doing his thing and all this sh** keeps happening.

Hope he's comes back good and wins the Preakness.
carole
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:01 pm

#KentuckyDerby2019 (50.6K Tweets)
Maximum Security (59.8K Tweets)
Country House (40.3K Tweets)
Churchill Downs (7,130 Tweets)

Are all trending in the UK on Twitter. This was huge for horse racing. Could have been absolutely tragic, thank God it was not.
djnorth
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:07 pm

Wow! Interesting read. I watched the race then had to run an errand. Was a little surprised that the dq happened but I think it was the right call. I kept saying they would look at it but thought it would stand since CH wasn't the one who almost fell. Stupid, I know. Also I lost money too but it happens. Bill Mott is incredibly classy. One of my favorites. He probably would have preferred not to win it like this and I feel for MS connections. Can't imagine how that feels.

FWIW, Bayern should have come down too but I figured that wouldn't happen to King Bob in CA. My dad was amazed that the result stood.

Sad to hear that women have had uncomfortable experiences at the track. I guess I'm lucky that I'm now old and have never been attractive so I've not had those problems.

Also, for the record, PETA ain't never right!
stark
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:10 pm

djnorth wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:07 pm

FWIW, Bayern should have come down too but I figured that wouldn't happen to King Bob in CA.
If we can find the overhead blimp shot of the Bayern race, one look at the replay and you'll understand why he didn't come down and what the optical illusion was from ground level.

Anybody got a copy?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Tessablue
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:13 pm

A fantastic picture by Jim Leuenberger over at DRF (article here: https://www.drf.com/news/preview/countr ... rity?type=) showing how extensively War of Will was impeded. Extraordinary athletcisim on his part to stay on his feet.

Image
Ingrid
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:15 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:13 pm
A fantastic picture by Jim Leuenberger over at DRF (article here: https://www.drf.com/news/preview/countr ... rity?type=) showing how extensively War of Will was impeded. Extraordinary athletcisim on his part to stay on his feet.

Image
Wow! Talk about Scrappy T/Afleet Alex flashbacks!
"Grief is the price we pay for love." - Gretchen Jackson
Tessablue
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:18 pm

The chart is up! Turns out Improbable actually went off favored, so our favorite streak would have been broken either way.
stark
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:21 pm

Jay Privman
‏@DRFPrivman
2m2 minutes ago

Stewards just now making a statement. Said decision was unanimous. They made a statement and took no questions.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Mylute
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:22 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:18 pm
The chart is up! Turns out Improbable actually went off favored, so our favorite streak would have been broken either way.
Yay! My research paper is (kind of) wrong!

(joke, but still lol)
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
Tessablue
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:24 pm

Mylute wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:22 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:18 pm
The chart is up! Turns out Improbable actually went off favored, so our favorite streak would have been broken either way.
Yay! My research paper is (kind of) wrong!

(joke, but still lol)
Hey, I'd still call that close enough! Honestly, it's a great topic for a paper. It's absolutely extraordinary how skilled the Derby crowd has become at betting this race. I mean, 65-1 winner aside.
luvsgeldings
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:33 pm

just curious, could Mott have asked Prat to claim foul? I don't know, can trainers do that?

I feel really badly for Maximum Security - he looked so pathetic with his head hanging so low while they kept walking him around in circles right after the race. poor horse. he looked totally spent and exhausted. he gave it everything he had, and was truly the best horse on the day.
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Mylute
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:34 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:24 pm
Mylute wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:22 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:18 pm
The chart is up! Turns out Improbable actually went off favored, so our favorite streak would have been broken either way.
Yay! My research paper is (kind of) wrong!

(joke, but still lol)
Hey, I'd still call that close enough! Honestly, it's a great topic for a paper. It's absolutely extraordinary how skilled the Derby crowd has become at betting this race. I mean, 65-1 winner aside.
That was my biggest point for the paper; that a more educated betting public has bet down the right horse. I don't think the points system is solely to blame because, despite people talking about how it "keeps the sprinters out", we've had fast Derbies and it didn't keep speedballs like Danzing Candy out.

The red flag with this point, though, is a lot of people bet on connections (betting on Baffert because Baffert, or Pletcher, etc), which leads to 65-1 County Houses.

In the end, it really just ends up being a crapshoot, haha.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
carole
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:37 pm

Here’s a question, if connections of Country House and Long Range Toddy don’t file objections, would the Stewards post an inquiry or would the result stand?
Tessablue
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:39 pm

Mylute wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:34 pm
That was my biggest point for the paper; that a more educated betting public has bet down the right horse. I don't think the points system is solely to blame because, despite people talking about how it "keeps the sprinters out", we've had fast Derbies and it didn't keep speedballs like Danzing Candy out.

The red flag with this point, though, is a lot of people bet on connections (betting on Baffert because Baffert, or Pletcher, etc), which leads to 65-1 County Houses.

In the end, it really just ends up being a crapshoot, haha.
Not sure what the structure is, but one fun aspect you might want to touch on is the morning line. Every year, we see 30-1 horses end up far higher than 50-1 ML horses, most likely because people remember Mine that Bird and/or want to "hit it big" by betting on a 50-1 shot, not necessarily realizing that the ML is effectively meaningless. We saw that this year, with Country House and Bodexpress going of at the longest odds in the field, and Gray Magician (33-1 off a 50-1 ML) hilariously going off at far lower odds than Plus Que Parfait (57-1, 30-1 ML).

Good luck with the paper, it sounds really interesting!
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Mylute
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:41 pm

Well, I actually already wrote it back in...February. I could only use 10-12 sources so I could only touch on two or three points and I had a week to do so, so its shorter and simple.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
Tessablue
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:45 pm

Mylute wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:41 pm
Well, I actually already wrote it back in...February. I could only use 10-12 sources so I could only touch on two or three points and I had a week to do so, so its shorter and simple.
Whoops. Well, today must have given you a lot of material for a sequel ;)
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Insane Crazy
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:45 pm

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... curitys-dq

This guy seems like a down to earth dude.
West said while he hadn't seen the replay, he initially doubted an appeal would be filed of the stewards' decision that left his first-place finisher in 17th. A little later, West said they'd have to review the video before deciding, and then trainer Jason Servis said the connections are leaning toward an appeal.
What does an appeal entail, btw?
Not a wholesome trottin' race, no, but a race where they sit down right on the horse!
Like to see some stuck-up jockey boy sittin' on Dan Patch? Make your blood boil? Well, I should say!
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pointgivenfan
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:45 pm

Just learned that Improbable actually went off favored so at least one definitive thing we can say about this Derby is the favorites streak is well and truly broken, if only by a smidge.
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genuinerizk
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2016 2:21 pm

Sat May 04, 2019 9:47 pm

Poor Vekoma looked like a blender running. There were 4 legs going 3 different directions. And when he hit the stretch, I think he was only ahead of 2 or 3 other horses, and his jockey was still hitting him. I think, even with a rocket up his butt, he probably wouldn’t have improved his position much. I wish they would just give him another career.
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