2019 Kentucky Derby

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Mylute
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Fri May 03, 2019 10:44 pm

stark wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 10:41 pm
Has a trainer ever had the winning exacta in the Derby or will this be the first time? ;)
Ben Jones 1948 - Citation and Coaltown. I think there's been another one but I'm not sure.

And Baffert had the 1 and 3 in 2015 - Pharoah and Dortmund.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
stark
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Fri May 03, 2019 10:46 pm

thanks
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Big Ten
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Sat May 04, 2019 12:52 am

If Max doesn't win this race, it will bring me back to 2006. I got 18-1 on Barbaro in the first pool but I was so high on Sweetnorthernsaint. His ML was 10-1 but he ended up being the favorite at 11-2. Barbaro was 6-1. Brother Derek was 8-1 but I forgot he broke from the #1 gate.

Max could be just like what SNS did in the IL Derby. I don't really know if he beat anybody worth noting in Florida and the pace was handed to him on a silver platter. If he goes below 5-1 and is the actual chalk, he's not really worth betting by that point.

Then again if he's the chalk, the betting public haven't been wrong the last six years. I could see some Sweetnorthernsaint deja vu if he loses with some confidence boosted before the race if he ends up the favorite.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
middleground
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Sat May 04, 2019 3:45 am

Mylute wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 10:44 pm
stark wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 10:41 pm
Has a trainer ever had the winning exacta in the Derby or will this be the first time? ;)
Ben Jones 1948 - Citation and Coaltown. I think there's been another one but I'm not sure.

And Baffert had the 1 and 3 in 2015 - Pharoah and Dortmund.
In 1921, Herbert "Derby Dick" Thompson trained both the winner and runner-up: Behave Yourself and Black Servant.
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Big Ten
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Sat May 04, 2019 8:47 am

I really liked that story about how Serengeti Empress got her name. "Africa" by Toto is one of my favorite songs of all-time. Way before I heard it in that Family Guy episode about Joe and Bonnie. I love that song and "I'll Be Over You" with Michael McDonald as backup vocals.

Serengeti Express was firing bullets and then speed won yesterday. I was looking at the workouts and losing Omaha Beach really does sting now. Very likely he could've just wired the field like Serengeti did in yesterday's Oaks. Now it's all up to Maximum Security. Luis Saez must not let War of Will take over early.

A horse who could hit the board at big odds is Code of Honor. I don't think he'll win but you can't overlook Shug, JV, and his recent 3rd place finish in Florida. My OG Derby horse, Improbable, is looking better and better. Blinkers off which annoyed him. Had two workouts over Churchill.

Improbable could be the one horse Baffert believes all along as his best horse. If he shows speed early, he has a really good chance to win. He has trained well on CD that neither his stablemates had a recent workout on, owns a win on it, experienced mud that neither his stablemates experienced yet, and has a great post.

Mike Smith on Cutting Humor might be some revenge on Baffert from Mike choosing Omaha Beach over Roadster and Bob not changing riders after OB got scratched. The revenge is also coming from Pletcher last year when he watched Mike beat Audible.

If CH wins, that's a little bit of payback to Bob coming from both Todd and Mike. I believe the first flight of horses will consist of Maximum Security, Vekoma, Improbable, and maybe Roadster. If Max and Improbable are in the Top 3 and the pace is like :47, I'll be very confident one of those two will win it.

Improbable's screws are getting tightened for this race like Game Winner is. Both are geared towards winning today. Not their preps. They're sitting on a big one today. Banking on Improbable getting first jump on GW early and not experiencing any kickback that his stablemates from the #14 & #15 might get.

Baffert could go very well go 1-2-3 if Max is a fraud like Sweetnorthernsaint proved to me 13 years ago and Tacitus doesn't fire.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Mylute
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Sat May 04, 2019 9:19 am

Happy Derby Day guys!
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
stark
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Sat May 04, 2019 10:10 am

Mylute wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:19 am
Happy Derby Day guys!
Thanks, hope all enjoy and have a safe time.
Fast and firm to start the day, rain scheduled to come down about 11, race 7 or so.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Sat May 04, 2019 10:32 am

Mylute wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 10:44 pm
stark wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 10:41 pm
Has a trainer ever had the winning exacta in the Derby or will this be the first time? ;)
Ben Jones 1948 - Citation and Coaltown. I think there's been another one but I'm not sure.

And Baffert had the 1 and 3 in 2015 - Pharoah and Dortmund.
Back in '48 I think the Jones duo was a 1/1A coupling for wagering purposes, so technically no exacta payoff, if they offered one? I think Curtis was there, he'll remember, but where is he now?

I'm certain guys like Mott, Pletcher are hoping today is the day to cash a big exacta! :lol:
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Sat May 04, 2019 11:18 am

Did I just hear on the radio that Maximum Security was out at daybreak for a 2F blowout the morning of the race?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
carole
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Sat May 04, 2019 11:22 am

stark wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 11:18 am
Did I just hear on the radio that Maximum Security was out at daybreak for a 2F blowout the morning of the race?
Yep, according to Twitter went 11.4 for 1st quarter and 23.1 for 2F. Pretty fast
luvsgeldings
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Sat May 04, 2019 11:34 am

just heard that too - if the West's win the Derby this year, I truly hope its with this horse.
carole
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Sat May 04, 2019 12:02 pm

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Big Ten
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Sat May 04, 2019 12:15 pm

My Top 2 picks are now the Top 2 betting choices. I'm cool with that. The loss of Omaha Beach has also helped lowered their odds. The betting public hadn't been wrong since 2012. That's why it's better these days to bet on them as Futures.

There is a risk there as well like Omaha Beach scratching. But for me to get them between 3x-100x+ higher odds is better than betting them live. It just seems pointless now betting on them live FTW unless you love to play the exotics where the real money is.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/more/la- ... story.html
Here are the latest Kentucky Derby odds by post position as of 11 a.m. EDT:

1. War of Will: 17-1

2. Tax: 34-1

3. By My Standards: 16-1

4. Gray Magician: 31-1

5. Improbable: 5-1

6. Vekoma: 22-1

7. Maximum Security: 9-2

8. Tacitus: 5-1


9. Plus Que Parfait: 55-1

10. Cutting Humor: 24-1

11-12 SCRATCHED

13. Code of Honor: 13-1

14. Win Win Win: 15-1

15. Master Fencer: 53-1

16. Game Winner: 6-1

17. Roadster: 10-1

18. Long Range Toddy: 49-1

19. Spinoff: 51-1

20. Country House: 62-1

21. Bodexpress: 99-1

-- John Cherwa | 8:06 a.m.
Max, Improbable, Tacitus, GW, and Roadster are my Top 5 and the betting public is betting them accordingly to where I placed each of them. It's likely going to stay that way. For me, it's how low their odds will go? If Max is 3-1, then it's not worth betting for me. I'll just watch the race. I do like Max but I'm not as confident with him as I was with Justify last year. Max still has unproven connections.

Next year if I already made my bets, I will do the same thing or I might just stay quiet until the very last 10 minutes before post time if I plan to bet live. I prefer no copycats and there are a bunch of anonymous folks who do it on the Internet. I honestly felt even two weeks before OB was scratched that Max was the superior horse and should be the chalk. Now he is. The betting public has spoken.

I see alot "guests" here who I know read this and several are part of the industry, so our posts can be influential. Max could be another Sweetnorthernsaint for me where Max simply defeated frauds in Florida or another no-brainer with another speedy horse winning it like the last five runnings. I'm banking on the latter. I see elements of Big Brown with Max.

My backup is a Baffert horse I have spoken highly off since last Christmas. I kept going all over Twitter and YouTube saying "HE'S THE ONE!" just like I did with Justify last year. Not too shabby of a backup. The two Ortiz brothers can win big this weekend. I think Improbable's luck is turning for him. And also his screws. Forget his losses because his screws are already tightened to win today.

Last year, the trifecta was 7-6-5.The #6 is surprisingly not a winning post like 5, 10, 8, and 7 are. It produced only 2 winners. But Good Magic did finish 2nd last year as the #6 horse. Vekoma has some early speed and breaks in-between Improbable and Max. The leaders could be 7-6-5 and stay that way all the way around. Vekoma is at 22-1. Nice horse to include underneath.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Mylute
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Sat May 04, 2019 1:04 pm

What even are these odds? Lol.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
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Big Ten
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Sat May 04, 2019 2:29 pm

I always felt Roadster was the weakest link of the Baffert trio. I just didn't realize I had the best Baffert horse all along.

Procrastinators at the half-mile haven't won the Kentucky Derby since 2013. I believe this Baffert horse is ready to rock-n-roll today.

https://youtu.be/5kNzsU0usMA

Not exactly :58 bullet works like Serengeti Express and Omaha Beach did but just enough to tighten the screws, build some early speed on him while still leaving some gas in the tank.

The Team Baffert Derby Dynasty can still continue with this horse winning today...

Image

^ He's going to press the pace. If he isn't, Baffert will not win the roses today. Speed is key if Bob wants his 6th Derby win. Baffert knows Max is the most dangerous horse in the field even before OB was scratched.

I got the nutcase of the Baffert trio but I also think he's the most talented of the three and physically the most beautiful. Game Winner is the heart. Roadster is the most raw and the biggest enigma, hence, his current 10-1 odds.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/hor ... story.html
If we think of the three horses in terms of human siblings, Game Winner is the first son. The thickly built bay colt beat his stablemates to the national stage when he won the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, and he always gives a good effort.

Improbable is the chestnut middle son, thought by some to be the most promising 3-year-old in the 2019 class but fussy and undermined on race day by his seeming lack of focus.

Roadster is the gray baby, rated by many in Baffert’s barn to be the most gifted of the three last summer, then derailed by throat surgery before he re-emerged to upset Game Winner in the Santa Anita Derby on April 6.
He’s said Florida Derby winner Maximum Security should be the favorite based on speed figures.
He is. 9-2. I don't see that changing. Undefeated. Won by a combined 38 lengths. Highest speed figs. A 36 flat closing 3/8ths. It's as clear as day.

The questions are Max's trainer and jockey are still unproven at this stage and the competition he beat in Florida are rather suspect. Bodexpress at 70-1 finished 2nd in a pace-less race that was gifted to Max on a silver platter.

Please, Max? Don't be another Sweetnorthernsaint!
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Mylute
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Sat May 04, 2019 2:34 pm

Question, random.

For those of you who have been to the Derby, is there a cheaper mint julep that is available?

I know the ones they show on TV are $1K+ because of the John Asher cup, but can you get a mint julep at a cheaper price in a regular cup?

Just curious.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
Somnambulist

Sat May 04, 2019 2:36 pm

Mylute wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 2:34 pm
Question, random.

For those of you who have been to the Derby, is there a cheaper mint julep that is available?

I know the ones they show on TV are $1K+ because of the John Asher cup, but can you get a mint julep at a cheaper price in a regular cup?

Just curious.
There definitely has to be. I love bourbon more than most people but there is no way it can be good enough to cost that much. But I'm poor.
Somnambulist

Sat May 04, 2019 2:37 pm

This NBC suit is AMAZING.
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ThreeMustangs
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Sat May 04, 2019 2:37 pm

Mylute wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 2:34 pm
Question, random.

For those of you who have been to the Derby, is there a cheaper mint julep that is available?

I know the ones they show on TV are $1K+ because of the John Asher cup, but can you get a mint julep at a cheaper price in a regular cup?

Just curious.
Yep. You can get “regular” ones in souvenir glasses.
stark
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Sat May 04, 2019 2:58 pm

The standard mint julep costs $15 on Derby Day and comes with a souvenir glass
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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