2019 Kentucky Derby

luvsgeldings
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Fri May 03, 2019 9:34 am

thanks for that update on Omaha Beach!
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Big Ten
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Fri May 03, 2019 2:07 pm

Cutting Humor moves up a little with Mike Smith getting the mount.

Baffert should've just let Mike ride Roadster again or even Improbable. I still don't have much faith in Cutting Humor. Still not a Top 3 horse for me. I might have to re-edit my Derby Contest picks a 4th time though. The #10 gate is an excellent one to have.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Spahny
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Fri May 03, 2019 2:23 pm

I liked the local rider Lanerie on Cutting Humor. I'll still use him but I don't really think this change was cool at all. And Baffert would have been crucified if he put MIke back on Roadster now.
stark
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Fri May 03, 2019 2:28 pm

https://twitter.com/tjwilkin/status/1124302900468027392

Mike Smith: "You never want to pick up a horse this way but I am certainly not going to turn a mount down." Smith said he has not spoken to Lanerie, but he will. "We've all been there," he said.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Tessablue
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Fri May 03, 2019 3:18 pm

And to make the switch on Cancer Awareness Day, a year after Lanerie's wife passed away from it... not that Starlight has ever been a paragon of ownership, but yikes.

Also have to love the owners making no comment and sending Pletcher out to take the heat. Not a great look.

Anyways, early betting for the Derby is fascinating. Here are the current Bellafina/Derby double probables:

Improbable: $18
Maximum Security: $21
Tacitus: $19
Game Winner: $16
Roadster: $28

Meanwhile, Improbable is the 9/2 favorite in the early win betting, Maximum Security and Tacitus are right behind at 5-1, Game Winner is at 6-1 and Roadster is all the way up at 9-1.

Just as we all guessed!
luvsgeldings
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Fri May 03, 2019 4:01 pm

you know.... this thing with Lanerie makes me sick. the poor guy seemed so sad on the NBC show earlier when he was talking about it.

so basically, you have an owner and jockey who won the TC last year (and had one of the best years of their lives professionally) handing a major disappointment the day before this years Derby to a jockey, who along with his young daughter had the worst year of their lives personally.

wow. way to stay classy Starlight Racing and Mike Smith.

seriously, smith needed to ride in this derby that much once OB was out that he takes a ride on a somewhat longshot in the race? and Lanerie is a leading rider at Churchill while Smith hasn't always given the smartest rides to all of his Derby mounts over the years. is Smith really going to make that much of a difference on the horse?

sorry, but shame on them. frankly, I have never cared for those owners anyway and I think Smith is one of the biggest phonies out there. so its not exactly a surprise.

I just feel really badly for a very competent jockey to be given this news the day before the Derby. a Derby day that could have provided some little bright spot for both he and his daughter after their very sad year.

seems to me you have to be some really special kind of heartless jerk to do that to a guy who already has had so much sadness this past year.
Tessablue
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Fri May 03, 2019 4:50 pm

I have to also acknowledge the irony that this isn't necessarily an upgrade. Lanerie knows Churchill, he knows how to ride Churchill in the slop (something that sets him apart from a surprising number of Derby riders), and he guided Lookin at Lee to a second-place finish at very long odds on a sloppy track just a few years ago. Even taking all of the personal aspects of it, it's not a very logical move, especially given the obvious hit to their PR.

Not that it's worth pretending these super-owners care about PR at all....
Matt Converse
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Fri May 03, 2019 4:58 pm

My favorite longshot is the longest price on the board. "AND IT'S BODEXPRESS WITH HIS HEAD IN FRONT AS THEY COME DOWN TO THE WIRE...HE'S 99-1!!!
Matt Converse
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Fri May 03, 2019 5:03 pm

Maximum Security could go off the favorite. It's very close between four horses so far: Improbable is the 9-2 favorite with Max Sec, Tacitus at 5-1 and Game Winner at 6-1. Roadster has drifted up to 9-1.
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Kurenai
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Fri May 03, 2019 5:33 pm

That's just.... I don't blame Mike for taking the mount he was offered. But I do blame the owners though for just robbing Lanerie. Way to stay classy! :roll:

After reading what Lanerie went through... I'm even more flabbergasted. What... the...
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri May 03, 2019 6:36 pm

During the NBCSN broadcast, I heard something about the owners of Cutting Humor having to pay both riders, since it was a last-minute replacement. Does anyone know how that would work?
If the colt earns some purse money, is the rider's share split 50-50 between the two jocks? Or does the owner have to pay both riders whatever the amount is from the purse?
Tessablue
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Fri May 03, 2019 6:39 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 6:36 pm
During the NBCSN broadcast, I heard something about the owners of Cutting Humor having to pay both riders, since it was a last-minute replacement. Does anyone know how that would work?
If the colt earns some purse money, is the rider's share split 50-50 between the two jocks? Or does the owner have to pay both riders whatever the amount is from the purse?
I believe the owners would have to pay out Smith's earnings to Lanerie as well. So they both get 100% of what the jockey would normally get.
luvsgeldings
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Fri May 03, 2019 7:20 pm

yes, owners of Cutting Humor have to pay both jocks. and as was pointed out on the Belmont racing telecast, not that they are doing it voluntarily - I guess there is a rule/law in KY that they have to do this anyway.
Matt Converse
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Fri May 03, 2019 7:40 pm

Maximum Security is indeed the current 9-2 favorite.
tcw
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Fri May 03, 2019 8:39 pm

Is Haikal still in? I heard that he was going to be scratched.
Tessablue
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Fri May 03, 2019 8:43 pm

tcw wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 8:39 pm
Is Haikal still in? I heard that he was going to be scratched.
Nope, he's out. War of Will moves out one spot.
tcw
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Fri May 03, 2019 8:49 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 8:43 pm
tcw wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 8:39 pm
Is Haikal still in? I heard that he was going to be scratched.
Nope, he's out. War of Will moves out one spot.
Somebody may want to indicate that in the Derby Pool contest if it hasn't already been done.
Tessablue
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Fri May 03, 2019 8:55 pm

tcw wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 8:49 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 8:43 pm
tcw wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 8:39 pm
Is Haikal still in? I heard that he was going to be scratched.
Nope, he's out. War of Will moves out one spot.
Somebody may want to indicate that in the Derby Pool contest if it hasn't already been done.
Oh whoops. Thanks for the reminder, changing it now!
Somnambulist

Fri May 03, 2019 10:08 pm

For anyone who is into it, the legendary, ever enjoyable John Prine released a cover of My Old Kentucky Home (with some limited edition vinyl).
stark
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Fri May 03, 2019 10:41 pm

Has a trainer ever had the winning exacta in the Derby or will this be the first time? ;)
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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