2019 Kentucky Derby

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Big Ten
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Thu May 02, 2019 9:51 am

Haikal (Rajiv Maragh) could be out. I have to keep editing my Derby Contest picks. From #13-#20 moves another slot down.

1. Maximum Security
2. Improbable
3. Tacitus
4. Game Winner (likely chalk)
5. Roadster
6. Vekoma
7. Tax
8. Cutting Humor
9. Spinoff
10. Code of Honor

11. War of Will
12. Country House

Haikal is one of the best closers. Better than Bourbon War but still a plodder. Maximum Security might wire this field by crawling early like he did in the Florida Derby. I might have to change my final time on the Derby Contest. Max is going to crawl early. He ran 1:48+ in Florida. That's about 2 minutes and change for 10F.

Roadster has to show his early speed early on. One of the Baffert trio has to do it and Roadster qualifies the best. If it's pace-less, Game Winner and Improbable don't have any chance to win. One of them might be sacrificed as a rabbit.

If Max gets :48 again, he's going to be long gone. His LP at 123 is 6 pts higher than Justify's best at 117. Even if OB was in, Max is going to give him so much problems. OB would need to be 8 lengths ahead and go 46+ early to have a chance. Then just have enough stamina left to hold Max off.

I'm rewatching another undefeated Florida Derby winner. If you remember, Colonel John, was hyped and it was in the experimental synthetic era. I was one of the suckers who liked him. Big Brown was a clear standout in a weak crop.

Max is really no different than what we saw with Big Brown except the Beyers were higher in BB's time. While Max gets only 101 when he had a sub-1:49 9F prep and went 1:21+ going 7F. I remember another undefeated Florida Derby winner, Barbaro, getting similar Beyers to Max and then he romped in Kentucky.

2008 Florida Derby
https://youtu.be/UV680TEphKQ

2008 Kentucky Derby (RIP Luke)
https://youtu.be/UTg5h_zMYaw
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Thu May 02, 2019 10:32 am

Re: Haikal

Jay Privman
‏@DRFPrivman

According to Churchill Downs starter Scott Jordan, if there is another scratch to reduce the field to 19, the inside stall in the starting gate will be left open and the runners would be loaded into stalls 2 (for War of Will) through 20.

From DRF Grening

Haikal, the Grade 3 Gotham winner, has an abscess in his left front foot, putting his status for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby in jeopardy.
Haikal did not train Thursday. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is hoping to be able to train him Friday.
”We’re soaking it and hoping for the best,” McLaughlin said. “He will train tomorrow and go from there. We’re hopeful, but it’s a tough call.”
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Thu May 02, 2019 10:36 am

Just FYI, lest there be any confusion.....

Kentucky Derby
‏@KentuckyDerby

With the scratch of Omaha Beach, Bodexpress will draw into the #KyDerby field and break from post position 20.

All horses outside of Omaha Beach (post positions 13-20) will move over one position in the starting gate.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Mylute
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Thu May 02, 2019 11:38 am

If Haikal scratches today or tomorrow, who gets in?

Isnt it Signalman? If so, live one there.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
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katmandu
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Thu May 02, 2019 12:57 pm

Mylute wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:38 am
If Haikal scratches today or tomorrow, who gets in?

Isnt it Signalman? If so, live one there.
Signalman has left town (so to speak). . . but WOW goes in the #2 gate, a small mercy.
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Mylute
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Thu May 02, 2019 1:03 pm

What do we think about Omaha Beach making the other two Classic races?
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
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pointgivenfan
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Thu May 02, 2019 1:16 pm

Mylute wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 1:03 pm
What do we think about Omaha Beach making the other two Classic races?
Not going to be a thing. Mandella is already planning his summer campaign, per HRN, etc.
"I am the man who with the utmost daring discovered what had been discovered before." - G.K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy.
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luvsgeldings
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Thu May 02, 2019 1:24 pm

Mandella said he 'wouldn't do that to the horse' in regards to making any of the TC races now - there is a video on Bloodhorse today where he is asked questions about Omaha Beach - the horse might have his surgery today I believe - everything you need to know about the class and grace of Mr Mandella, comes thru in that video - what a lovely, genuine, honorable man he is - truly puts his animals first - he said there are races in the summer (Haskell, Travers) to look at, and of course, his goal is now the BC Classic.

he will do right by Omaha Beach and not rush him into anything - you can tell, he has a great deal of respect, admiration and fondness for that horse.


I truly wish them the best going forward - that trainer, that owner, that wonderful horse.... I hope they win everything now.
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Big Ten
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Thu May 02, 2019 1:46 pm

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/05/2019-k ... s-and-odds

Game Winner, 4-1
Roadster, 9-2
Improbable, 5-1
Maximum Security, 6-1
Tacitus, 8-1

If Max is only 5-1, I'll throw in another $20 for the win. Try to win $100. If he's 6-1, I'll put $30. If he's 7-1 or 8-1, I'll put $60 or technically $57 as there is a $3 Los Al admission fee.

Possible $1000 winnings if I can get him at 7-1 or higher. I don't think Max will be the fav. Lowest he'll go is 3rd betting choice at 5-1. I can see it float back to the 7-1 to 8-1 range.

Damn shame OB got scratched because it ruined the odds for Max who could've been 8-1 bare minimum if OB was still there. And I really do feel bad for Mandella because I really wanted him to finally win the Derby.

I do hope the casuals keep throwing their money down on the Bafferts. I hope someone makes a $10M win bet on Game Winner or Roadster.

I need Max at 7-1 or higher. Anything lower isn't really worth betting when I got him at 11-1 already.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Somnambulist
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Thu May 02, 2019 1:48 pm

Is this really devastating and something people should be "gutted" over? The horse is alive and well. We don't need Monmouth tweeting that they send their condolences.

This sport has issues.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Diver52
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Thu May 02, 2019 2:00 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 1:48 pm
Is this really devastating and something people should be "gutted" over? The horse is alive and well. We don't need Monmouth tweeting that they send their condolences.

This sport has issues.


I think "condolences" is not an appropriate word, but I'd be devastated and gutted. I'm sitting here with a shattered wrist which means i will miss an African safari, and I'm not devastated; I can hope to go next year. But going to the Kentucky Derby with the favorite? Once in a lifetime. (Unless you're Bob Baffert.)
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
Somnambulist
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Thu May 02, 2019 2:08 pm

I'm impressed you're typing!
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Mylute
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Thu May 02, 2019 2:24 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 1:48 pm
Is this really devastating and something people should be "gutted" over? The horse is alive and well. We don't need Monmouth tweeting that they send their condolences.

This sport has issues.
Sigh.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
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Diver52
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Thu May 02, 2019 5:12 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 2:08 pm
I'm impressed you're typing!
it's my left hand--the only good thing about the whole debacle!
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
Apollo
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Thu May 02, 2019 11:47 pm

Randy Moss on the NBCSN coverage today was saying there should be a Las Vegas prop of which Baffert horse will finish above the other -- Game Winner or Roadster.

That is hardly theoretical. That prop is available. These guys never seem to understand that matchup wagers are a thing. Moss said he would lean to Roadster slightly. But the actual odds are now Game Winner favored at -160 while Roadster is +140 (or +130 at shops using a 30 cent cut).

There was money on Game Winner on that prop because he is the betting favorite on the offshore sites and some minor separation has developed. Game Winner is now generally in the +490 range while Improbable is +600 (6/1), Roadster +650, with Maximum Security and Tacitus both at +750.

I agree with Eddie Olczyk on today's coverage that Roadster is my clear pick on a fast track but an off track is far less certain. When the gate opens I'll be looking at Game Winner and Roadster to see how they fare. Side by side outside. Also Improbable at 5. Baffert was quite blunt today regarding the necessity of Improbable to break. He said if Improbable doesn't break well then everybody can go home.

Roadster's jockey said Omaha Beach would have been his stalking target. But now it is less certain. I appreciated his honestly, including that he was worried that Baffert might take him off Roadster and replaced by Mike Smith, after the Omaha Beach scratch.

Anyway, I have played or am going to play lots of matchups with Roadster, Game Winner, Improbable and By My Standards as my key horses, while opposing the likes of Tacitus, War of Will, Tax, Vekona, Win Win Win. All kinds of combinations involving that group. I'll have some type of win wager on Maximum Security and maybe a matchup or two. I'm gaining more confidence in him for some matchup risk, at least against some of the matchup foes I least respect. If the Wood Memorial horses beat me, that's fine. Probably some matchup on Spinoff, given who he is matched against.

The matchups and other props are available at the link below. Got to navigate down at left and click the "Horses" box among "Other Sports"

https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx

That isn't the prime site I use but it is best in terms of easily viewing what is available.

On edit: I looked at the tape again and I was wrong. Randy Moss asked about Roadster vs Improbable, not Roadster vs. Game Winner. Improbable is also favored over Roadster in the matchups at -160. There has been money steadily showing today against Roadster in some of the matchups. Game Winner is now -170 over Roadster, up 10 cents from the number I quoted earlier in this post
agrussel
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Fri May 03, 2019 6:36 am

Apollo wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:47 pm

The matchups and other props are available at the link below. Got to navigate down at left and click the "Horses" box among "Other Sports"

https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx

That isn't the prime site I use but it is best in terms of easily viewing what is available.
Great Info! Well done.
Please keep us updated if you see any significant line moves.
agrussel
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Fri May 03, 2019 7:04 am

Haikal is scratched, 7am ET this morning.

Unfortunate for the connections, but an obvious right move and care for the athlete.
agrussel
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Fri May 03, 2019 8:12 am

Mike Smith to get legged up by Todd Pletcher on #10 Cutting Humor, replacing Corey Lanerie.
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ThreeMustangs
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Fri May 03, 2019 8:38 am

Nice spreadsheet (including Tomlinson Wet figures) from turf writer Gene Kershner. Vekoma has the highest at 469.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1578277395
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ThreeMustangs
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Fri May 03, 2019 8:41 am

FHF just posted on FB that Omaha Beach’s surgery “went well and quick.”
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