Kentucky Derby Top 5

peeptoad
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Wed May 01, 2019 7:08 am

peeptoad wrote:
Sun Apr 28, 2019 11:49 am
pre-post draw top 5:

1. Improbable
2. Tacitus
3. Omaha Beach
4. Game Winner
5. Tax
post-post draw no changes except that I may use a little less of Tax underneath and a little more of Plus Que Parfait and Win Win Win…
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Big Ten
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Wed May 01, 2019 11:54 am

Gate 10 produces Derby winners at an 11 percent clip, and horses finish in the money (top three) from there a remarkable 29.3 percent of the time. Cutting Humor will break from post 10 this weekend.
Last year, I did like Audible who shared the same owners as Justify except trained by Pletcher and ridden by Velazquez. Audible was easily in my Top 3. But I knew Audible wasn't going to beat Justify. That's exactly how I feel with Tacitus where Bill Mott has a terrible Derby record like Pletcher has.

Last year was kinda like Baffert's (& Mike's) revenge year on Pletcher. In 2017, Always Dreaming won the Derby because Mastery was injured. So in 2018, Audible won the FL Derby and broke from the same exact post as AD but still couldn't beat Justify.

In 2019, I don't really envision either trainers winning it although Improbable gets the post that the two Pletcher horses got the previous two runnings. At this point, it is better to be luckier than good especially if the talent is very close.

2017 - #5 Always Dreaming (Pletcher), 1st
2018 - #5 Audible (Pletcher), 3rd
2019 - #5 Improbable (Baffert), ???

Improbable's Late Pace have hit triple-digits the last three races. Something his two current stablesmates didn't do. With a fast enough pace which may not have Max & OB going :48 and 1:12 early, Improbable could catch some tired horses at the end which includes my top two picks.

I do like Florent Geroux on Roadster. The regular rider of Gun Runner, he's one of the better jockeys under the age of 35. But I already threw out Roadster FTW with his ofer 40 #17. He'll be the most overbet Baffert of the trio when his odds should be higher than Improbable's.

Justify had a Late Pace of 117 in the Santa Anita Derby. Only time he earned a LP in triple-digits. Max recently earned a 123 and a 105 prior. Max is going to win. Breaking from the same exact post as Justify. Max could be a freak like Justify was only less heralded because of his connections.

If Max was trained by Baffert and ridden by Smith, Max would be the chalk easily. I actually never cared for Code of Honor even after he won the FOY. He lost ground in the FL Derby. And I don't really see it with War of Will.

If I can conjure up a trifecta..
7 w/
2, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 19
2, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 19

Final Top 11 (1 key w/ 10 horses)
1. #7 Maximum Security
2. #12 Omaha Beach
3. #8 Tacitus
4. #5 Improbable
5. #16 Game Winner
6. #17 Roadster
7. #6 Vekoma
8. #2 Tax
9. #11 Haikal
10. #10 Cutting Humor
11. #19 Spinoff

$1 tri wheel
1 key w/ 10 horses = $90 bet

^ That could still win by taking out the Pletcher pair to save money. Last year, I had Good Magic ranked 9th, so I can probably go up to Haikal.

Now watch a Pletcher horse, Code of Honor, War of Will, Master Fencer, or Gray Magician kill that ticket and finish 3rd. That's why I only stick with win bets specifically Futures these days.

Last Two Late Pace
Maximum Security - 105, 123
Omaha Beach - 100, 104
Improbable, 101, 104
Tacitus - 100, 101
Roadster - 100, 98
Game Winner - 102, 89

Horses with triple-digit late pace figs but have tactical speed are the ones you pay attention to. You don't really pay attention to the deep closers. It's obvious their LP will be high like Haikal's.

Max FTW.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Spahny
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Wed May 01, 2019 2:26 pm

Omaha Beach
Game Winner
Code of Honor
Tacitus
Cutting Humor
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Retrospectiv
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Wed May 01, 2019 6:04 pm

Omaha Beach OUT
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Big Ten
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Wed May 01, 2019 7:45 pm

New Top 5

1. Maximum Security
2. Improbable
3. Tacitus
4. Game Winner
5. Roadster

I believe Maximum Security will still handle them all and win easily. Omaha Beach was not that much faster than our overrated California 3YOs we have. And the separation between the Baffert trio is very small.

I'm moving Improbable up because his combined Late Pace is the 2nd best behind Max and even higher than OB's. So I'm going to put him above Tacitus.

I'm already making a decision that I'm not going to bet a win saver on Tacitus. I think he finishes about 3rd or so. What I might do is put a #7 w/ All exacta. It's only $19. Maybe $20 if I put $2 exacta 7 w/ 5.

With the pace scenario a little slower now with OB gone, this means that the 2nd horse could be a longshot like Bodexpress who was 70-1 in the FL Derby. There's a good chance like War of Will or Tax can run 2nd. It opens up that 2nd slot if OB is out.

The race is going to be a little more pace-less now. I'm hoping War of Will guns for it early since they're training him to. He could end up being 20-1 and run 2nd. Max can wire this field again like he did in Florida.

Omaha Beach being scratched actually benefits Maximum Security. Not the Baffert horses.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Charlie
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Thu May 02, 2019 12:23 pm

Well real bummed Omaha Beach isn’t in it anymore as he was my pick, but I still like Tacitus, Maximum Security, and Game Winner. Throw Vekoma in there as well.

I was really high on WoW earlier in the year, but after the La Derby I cooled off but I still think if he can overcome that disaster prep, I think he’s talented enough to get in the money.
Spahny
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Fri May 03, 2019 3:25 pm

It's hard to ignore that yet another wet Derby lie ahead. But I don't think it will change my top 3. Not very creative but it's how it looks to me.

Game Winner
Tacitus
Roadster

Finding somebody who might cherry pick late for 3rd or 4th seems like the challenge and I don't think I'm very good at that historically. This year I am going along with the popular belief that this Derby looks like a pace melt down kind of race. Two horses I like to maybe sneak into the tri or super are Code of Honor and Cutting Humor. Possibly Win Win Win... I feel like By My Standards will be over bet and I don't think the inside draw helps him at all. But he could be the one to spoil my fun for sure. Either him or Improbable who seems a little flighty to me.

Game Winner is my pick and I don't think anything will change that. But he's not going to win by a lot. He is tough and tested and I can trust him to handle some adversity and the big crowd.
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Starine
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Fri May 03, 2019 8:13 pm

Spahny wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 3:25 pm
Game Winner is my pick and I don't think anything will change that. But he's not going to win by a lot. He is tough and tested and I can trust him to handle some adversity and the big crowd.
It was interesting;Thoroughbred Daily News has been doing this 'Who Would You Ride?' series with retired jocks like Pat Day, Alex Solis and Chris McCarron. Most chose Omaha Beach but Gary Stevens and Eddie D. said they would ride Game Winner.
tcw
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Fri May 03, 2019 9:00 pm

Heard that top clocker Gary Young likes:

Game Winner
War of Will
Roadster
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Big Ten
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Fri May 03, 2019 9:30 pm

Bettors are smart. They're not falling for Roadster. He's currently at 10-1!

Game Winner, 9-2
Maximum Security, 5-1
Improbable, 5-1
Tacitus, 5-1
Roadster, 10-1

My top two choices might actually end up fighting for favoritism in the race! Throw in Tacitus with all that NY money pouring in late.

Tacitus is the most relevant Wood Memorial winner I've seen with a chance to win the Derby since maybe Empire Maker or Fusaichi Pegasus before that.

Like the New York Knicks, the Wood has been a joke ever since when it was one of the most relevant preps in the early 2000s.

https://www.nj.com/sports/2019/05/kentu ... dster.html

1. Maximum Security
2. Improbable
3. Tacitus
4. Game Winner
5. Roadster

Futures
Maximum Security, 11 x $45 = $500
Improbable, 11 x $25 = $275

Live
#7 Maximum Security, 5 x $40 = $200
#5 Improbable, 5 x $20 = $100

Image

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#5 or #7 have won the Derby three out of the last five runnings (2014, 2017, 2018).

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Spahny
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Fri May 03, 2019 9:47 pm

Starine wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 8:13 pm
Spahny wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 3:25 pm
Game Winner is my pick and I don't think anything will change that. But he's not going to win by a lot. He is tough and tested and I can trust him to handle some adversity and the big crowd.
It was interesting;Thoroughbred Daily News has been doing this 'Who Would You Ride?' series with retired jocks like Pat Day, Alex Solis and Chris McCarron. Most chose Omaha Beach but Gary Stevens and Eddie D. said they would ride Game Winner.
I'd be all over Game Winner with Eddie D up.
MySaladDays
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Sat May 04, 2019 2:48 am

Curtis wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:59 pm
MySaladDays wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:29 am
I have some very specific pedigree type angles (not gonna go into it here) and I don't see Omaha Beach winning the Derby.

I like one of these horses to win: (nothing to do with exotics or bombers I will have in those)

Code of Honor - ITM FL Derby, Fountain of Youth, Champagne, and his maiden (2 G1s and 1 G2 + maiden) and working bullets consistently since mid December

Tax - 103, 102, and 101 Brisnet speed figs, all at 1-1/8th miles.

Improbable - but does he hate blinkers?

War of Will - ran 2 G1s, 2 G2s,and 2 G3s. Won 3 of them, placed in 1 of them. Only graded stakes he did really bad in was the one where he slipped at the start (LA Derby), one on Turf, and the Bourbon G3. Most experienced graded stakes horse in the race. Blew Owendale off the track in the Risen Star.

Game Winner - has highest thorograph patterns of any horse in race.

Win Win Win - despite bad numbers, has something around 5 or 6 KY Derby and Belmont winners (each) in his pedigree


Bomber for superfecta: Spinoff
We actually like some of the same horses which means if I were you, I’d definitely hit those PP’s a little harder.😉

I was impressed by Improbable’s niftiness if you will, Saturday. He’s fast, quick and athletic, all good things in a Derby hopeful. I also think he’ll go without blinkers. He was only wearing cheaters, from what I could tell, and I really don’t think they achieved the desired effect.

The FL Derby was not a true indicator, in my opinion, but given it’s shape, I think Code of Honor looks the best of that bunch coming out of it. Shug knows how to train a Derby horse.

I don’t like Game Winner’s action or that he’s going to be disadvantaged by not getting a clear trip. I think he can go wide and win, however. He seems as classy as they get and he’s no quitter. If you need a wide trip, Rosario’s your man.

I wonder if War of Will is going to be short having not gotten much out of his ultimate prep? Talent wise there is much to like. The prep will make the price honest, I would think.

I always handicap Baffert’s horses based on which one he seems to like the most. Hearing him talk leading up to the 2015 TC for instance, I was sure he preferred Pharoah to Dortmund. This year the one he likes the most, I believe, is the one I like the least. I think Roadster is going to need a certain trip to get 10f. It could happen, but more likely it won’t and how likely is it that Mikey’s going to fill Geroux in as to how to shift into those gears?
I changed my superfecta bomber to Gray Magician and Plus Que. I think one of them can run 4th

I added Country House and subtracted Improbable. I don't trust him. I think he might be a head case, not as bad as Solomini (who was loaded w/talent) but the blinker experiments and all that just turned me away. I can't use Tacitus or Vekoma, neither of them seems to be able to run in a straight line. I am still debating Tax.


THis has been a real headbanger and in a way I just put down the handicapping data and went w/horses I LIKED. I shouldn't wager the big stakes races because I'm basically a longshot player,. Won the longshot contest for the meet on my local OP forum ..... I think I won a year or 2 ago, too. (20-ish cappers). Longshots jump out at me, but I'm terrible at the races where all the horses are high class. LOL

Only horse I really do not like that everyone else likes is Max. I'm just not seeing what others see.
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Big Ten
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Sat May 04, 2019 6:34 pm

The more I thought about it, the more I believe my OG pick of Improbable will win this race. He's not as fast as Max but he's more proven and has more proven connections.

- Bob Baffert
- Highest Brisnet speed fig in the slop
- Better competition
- Win at Churchill
- Workouts were in Churchill and are faster

The slow works in Florida is worrisome from Maximum Security. He might NOT be anywhere near the lead with slow works like that. Improbable might have first jump on him while saving a little more ground.

I'm going to make my final change and going to put my December pick back on top. Having Max at 4-1 chalk is worrisome. I don't mind if he wins. I win $500 if he does.

Final Top 5
1. Improbable
2. Maximum Security
3. Vekoma
4. Tacitus
5. Game Winner

Another surprising edition is putting Vekoma over Tacitus. He's got some early speed and he's 21-1 right now. It's Javier at nice odds as my win saver. I have to play against Tacitus here but will love his chances like five weeks later.

My final bets -

Future
Improbable, 11 x $25 = $275
Maximum Security, 11 x $45 = $500

OTB
Improbable, 4.5 x $50 = $225
Vekoma, 21 x $7 = $147

I win a minimum of $500 either way if Improbable or Maximum Security finishes first. I was checking the horses on TV earlier when they were walking from their barn. Max looks fluttered while Improbable looks like he's ready to rock-n-roll! Totally calm with blinkers off.

Could I really trust Jason Servis, Luis Saez, and slow workouts as the 4-1 chalk? Go with my first instinct, Improbable FTW! His name also fits Derby winners better along with his better looks over Max.

Again, I'm good if #5, #6, or #7 wins. But I have to go with a trainer far more proven in Bob Baffert.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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