Kentucky Derby Top 5

stark
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Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:56 pm

Question for the fans of Omaha Beach.
First off I was kinda tossing him thinking he needed slop for his best effort (I bought into the ouchy feet stuff and initial tries on turf) but now I'm wondering if you think he needs be in front all the way for his best and is that the trip you are projecting?
Thanks.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Curtis
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Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:14 pm

stark wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:56 pm
Question for the fans of Omaha Beach.
First off I was kinda tossing him thinking he needed slop for his best effort (I bought into the ouchy feet stuff and initial tries on turf) but now I'm wondering if you think he needs be in front all the way for his best and is that the trip you are projecting?
Thanks.
I don’t love him, I respect him, though. I don’t know that he’s a need to lead type anymore than Justify was last year.
Tessablue
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Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:39 pm

I don't think he needs the lead. I do think, based on his response to being behind horses early in the AK Derby, that he needs a clear outside trip. The draw will be critical, but it's very tough to know what to do with him because some horses hate being inside and taking dirt but never end up having to deal with it. Nyquist would have lost the Derby if he had gotten stuck inside horses, we still have no idea how Justify would have dealt with it, Irish War Cry hated being inside but got parked extremely wide in an attempt to stay clear, etc.

The ability to comfortably sit inside horses is probably the most underrated aspect of Derby handicapping, but at the same time, it's immensely difficult to predict even after the draw. Game Winner is the other huge question mark in this field.

And not to belabor the point, but it's a major reasons why I like both Tacitus and By My Standards so much. Both don't care about getting pelted with dirt on the inside. Roadster also handled it impressively in the SA Derby despite his inexperience, and I thought Improbable showed a lot of mental maturity in the AK Derby... once he got out of the gate, at least.
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Curtis
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Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:06 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:39 pm
I don't think he needs the lead. I do think, based on his response to being behind horses early in the AK Derby, that he needs a clear outside trip. The draw will be critical, but it's very tough to know what to do with him because some horses hate being inside and taking dirt but never end up having to deal with it. Nyquist would have lost the Derby if he had gotten stuck inside horses, we still have no idea how Justify would have dealt with it, Irish War Cry hated being inside but got parked extremely wide in an attempt to stay clear, etc.

The ability to comfortably sit inside horses is probably the most underrated aspect of Derby handicapping, but at the same time, it's immensely difficult to predict even after the draw. Game Winner is the other huge question mark in this field.

And not to belabor the point, but it's a major reasons why I like both Tacitus and By My Standards so much. Both don't care about getting pelted with dirt on the inside. Roadster also handled it impressively in the SA Derby despite his inexperience, and I thought Improbable showed a lot of mental maturity in the AK Derby... once he got out of the gate, at least.
I don’t disagree with that. I will say that most horses want outside trips, especially big guys like Omaha Beach. If he draws 1-3, 14 or 15–because of the gap between the gates—that would be a huge red flag, but again I’d say that for most any horse save for a really deep closer in posts 1-3.

Nyquist looked to me like a horse who just didn’t like slop. He could handle tracks with some moisture in them but not slop. So he tended to pop and stop, just wanting to get it over with. Exaggerator, on the other hand, just ran his race and the slop didn’t effect him. He, like a lot of ”mudders”, looked like he was moving way up when in fact, he was running his race while others weren’t.
Tessablue
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Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:24 pm

Curtis wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:06 pm
I don’t disagree with that. I will say that most horses want outside trips, especially big guys like Omaha Beach. If he draws 1-3, 14 or 15–because of the gap between the gates—that would be a huge red flag, but again I’d say that for most any horse save for a really deep closer in posts 1-3.

Nyquist looked to me like a horse who just didn’t like slop. He could handle tracks with some moisture in them but not slop. So he tended to pop and stop, just wanting to get it over with. Exaggerator, on the other hand, just ran his race and the slop didn’t effect him. He, like a lot of ”mudders”, looked like he was moving way up when in fact, he was running his race while others weren’t.
That's fair; in Nyquist's case it's difficult to separate out but he just looked so miserable in that Haskell (and thank you for giving credit to Exaggerator, who was such a nice horse over any surface). I do agree that most everyone wants to be outside, but I don't know if any of these horses are superior enough to pull a Pharoah and just park wide the entire race. Race shape dynamics are really fascinating in this one.

Can't wait for the draw; where Omaha Beach ends up vs. Maximum Security may decide a lot of things. And the racing gods have kindly placed hopeless longshots and/or deep closers on the rail for the past few years, but how long can that streak continue....?
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Mylute
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Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:27 pm

This probably sounds dumb but I wish By My Standards had a better name.
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stark
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Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:30 pm

One of the things I was thinking about OB needing the lead for his best effort was his inability to punch it in one of those maiden turf events where he went favored.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Curtis
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Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:40 pm

Mylute wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:27 pm
This probably sounds dumb but I wish By My Standards had a better name.
My farrier was out the other day to trim and shoe my herd. He announced his Derby horse is By My Standards because of his name. Not sure what his standard are though.
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Curtis
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Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:51 pm

stark wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:30 pm
One of the things I was thinking about OB needing the lead for his best effort was his inability to punch it in one of those maiden turf events where he went favored.
Cigar never seemed to want to punch it in on turf either. Omaha Beach has faced some bigger fields, but most of the horses were of little consequence in those races. Unless he just gets a dream trip of some sort, he’s going to have to work harder which can turn what is renowned as bulldog tenacity into that of a Cockapoo. Then again maybe he’s just the best horse. When and if Mandella wins a Derby, I’m going to lose money on it because I don’t know that he wants to get the hydraulics out to tighten the screws. Pre-1986, most would have said similar about Whittingham. Though I don’t know that outside of the Coach, training was done the same way then.
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Diver52
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Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:31 pm

Charlie knew he had a superior horse in Ferdinand.Game Changer.
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Curtis
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Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:56 pm

Diver52 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:31 pm
Charlie knew he had a superior horse in Ferdinand.Game Changer.
Somebody must have forgotten to tell Snow Chief when he beat Ferdinand by a pole in the Santa Anita Derby and then later convincingly in the Preakness and then in a photo in the Strub. The game changer for Ferdinand were favorable pace scenarios for him in both the KY Derby and the Malibu. Without help up front and given Ferdinand’s having to be almost tricked into winning, Snow Chief was the more efficient racehorse. This is coming from someone who went all Stark on ‘em during Del Mar in 1985 and fell in love with the long, tall, gorgeous Ferdinand and proclaimed him my Derby horse. That brought on a fair amount of derision since the odds were greater against Charlie taking one to Churchill as it seemed they would be for his horse to win there.
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Blame
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Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:59 am

stark wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:56 pm
Question for the fans of Omaha Beach.
First off I was kinda tossing him thinking he needed slop for his best effort (I bought into the ouchy feet stuff and initial tries on turf) but now I'm wondering if you think he needs be in front all the way for his best and is that the trip you are projecting?
Thanks.
Turf racing really means nothing. The way a horse runs on one surface means nothing on another surface. Omaha Beach is the horse to beat. Can he be beaten? Of course, but if every horse gets a good trip, he will be the winner. Rarely does every horse get a good trip though.

As for needing the lead, he doesn't really need it. He is push button. He likely will be near the lead, and will try to work out a trip similar to Barbaro when he won the Derby. He has the right jockey, he just needs the right racing luck. There are 4 or 5 other horses in the race that are too good for Omaha Beach to overcome really bad racing luck. I think he is the winner. I can't see going with anyone else on top of the ticket, unless you like a price horse.
stark
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Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:02 am

Blame wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:59 am
stark wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:56 pm
Question for the fans of Omaha Beach.
First off I was kinda tossing him thinking he needed slop for his best effort (I bought into the ouchy feet stuff and initial tries on turf) but now I'm wondering if you think he needs be in front all the way for his best and is that the trip you are projecting?
Thanks.
Turf racing really means nothing. The way a horse runs on one surface means nothing on another surface. Omaha Beach is the horse to beat. Can he be beaten? Of course, but if every horse gets a good trip, he will be the winner. Rarely does every horse get a good trip though.

As for needing the lead, he doesn't really need it. He is push button. He likely will be near the lead, and will try to work out a trip similar to Barbaro when he won the Derby. He has the right jockey, he just needs the right racing luck. There are 4 or 5 other horses in the race that are too good for Omaha Beach to overcome really bad racing luck. I think he is the winner. I can't see going with anyone else on top of the ticket, unless you like a price horse.
Of his seven races listed in the PPs, can you point me to an example that shows he can/likes/will pass other horses?
thanks.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Big Ten
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Sun Apr 28, 2019 11:24 am

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... _Odds_123p

^ Comments are hilarious! A couple of idiots arguing over horses.

I might as well say it now, Maximum Security is my Derby horse. I already made my bet last week, so I don't care if his odds go down to 5-1 choice or lower. The one idiot from HRN loves him and the other idiot is trashing him and saying he has ZERO chance.

I have money on MS, OB, and Improbable. I might put some on Tacitus that day. When I collect my Bovada check, I still have to wait a week. Betting on Tacitus is to get live money. No need to wait around. Now watch Game Winner or Roadster beat me.

Where MS really got me is the 36 flat final 3/8ths. Like I said before, he reminds me a little bit of Magnum Moon but he also has a Big Brown vibe as well. He's still undefeated so until he's beaten, I can't overlook him.

The horses he beat in Florida weren't exactly the cream of the crop though but the Florida Derby had an impressive number even if Gulfstream is speed-biased. Here's more "Captain Obvious" remarks from this one kid...

https://youtu.be/J2N2AXL1ZfI

^ Gee, kid. No-brainer!

More Maximum Security trash talk..

https://www.horseracingnation.com/horse ... Security_1

It's pretty obvious it's between MS or OB. It only took me a few minutes glancing at the Brisnet PPs to see it was those two. But I also underestimated the Wood Memorial. Tacitus and Tax are both solid horses who I underestimated initially.

MS seems faster and obviously more consistent being undefeated, but OB has beaten better competition and has the better rider. Even if it rains, both can still run great. I don't see MS wanting the lead. He has won from off the pace. OB seems a little more speedier but not that headstrong either. That's an advantage for him.

That recent workout from Omaha Beach made me really happy while MS was slow. Mike Smith picked the right horse, rain or shine. At this moment now, OB is superior to Roadster. Maybe in four months, Roadster will be better. But these riders need to focus on now. Not four months down the road.

Confidence level -
Maximum Security, 40%
Omaha Beach, 30%
Tacitus, 20%
Improbable, 10%

My biggest nemesis in this race is Game Winner and a lesser extent to Roadster. Knowing my luck, watch one of them win. Can't wait for the TBC Derby Contest. I did well two years ago finishing a few ticks off Spahny but only finished midpack last year. I'll probably finish worse this year.

Getting the Top 3 this year is more of a challenge as well as the final time and lengths won. Remember last year, Instilled Regard was the longest shot on the board and finished 4th. He pulled off a Imawildandcrazyguy 4th place finish to blow up the super to $19K!

Justify (3-1 chalk)
Good Magic (10-1)
Audible (7-1)
Instilled Regard (85-1)

Beware tossing Tax, Haikal, Vekoma, and even Spinoff in that super. The Blue Grass results won by Vekoma wasn't that terrible. I remember underestimating Good Magic last year. Was 6th on my list before falling to 9th. Finishes 2nd.

People ignore the Blue Grass these days but the results recently haven't been that terrible. The $1 super can pay much more than $19K especially if Maximum Security or Tacitus at 10-1 win the race. Nailing the 3rd and 4th is where the real challenge lies.

Derby Dozen
1. Maximum Security
2. Omaha Beach
3. Tacitus

4. Game Winner
5. Improbable

6. Roadster
7. Vekoma
8. Tax
9. Cutting Humor
10. By My Standards

11. Spinoff
12. Win Win Win

I'm not going to be one of those Internet d-bags proclaiming I hit $80K last year. I only play about $100 just to win a few hundred more. Enough to buy a Google Pixel 3 that I got for 50% off on Google Fi's birthday last week.

Kentucky Derby
Improbable (11-1) x $25 = $275
Omaha Beach (16-1) x $28 = $448
Maximum Security (11-1) x $45 = $500
Tacitus (10-1) x $20 = $200

NBA Finals
Milwaukee Bucks (18-1) x $25 = $450

If both Maximum Security and Omaha Beach get terrible posts, then I'll be forced to play Tacitus. If MS gets a bad one like say post #1, #17, #19, #20, and OB gets a good one, I'll flip-flop them for #1 & #2.

I'm the biggest Baffert fanboy there is and I'm not feeling it with any of his horses this year especially when jockeys are picking a Mott or Mandella horse over his. But I do fear Game Winner and Roadster a little because they're the two likeliest to kill my tickets. I'm just not taking either one at 5-1 to 6-1 odds.

Bill Mott likely skips the Preakness if Tacitus doesn't win the Kentucky Derby. Freshen him up for Belmont where Tapits have ran the best.

Kentucky Derby
Maximum Security or Omaha Beach

Preakness
Maximum Security or Omaha Beach or Game Winner (GW = 2019's Lookin At Lucky)

Belmont
Tacitus or Tax
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
peeptoad
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Sun Apr 28, 2019 11:49 am

pre-post draw top 5:

1. Improbable
2. Tacitus
3. Omaha Beach
4. Game Winner
5. Tax
stark
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Sun Apr 28, 2019 11:52 am

I only have four, guess they'll make for good exacta/tri/super boxes.

1. California
2. California
3. California
4. California

LOL, the very definition of West Coast Bias. ;)

Oh, and another win bet on Roadster if he drifts up in price from his morning line!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Big Ten
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Sun Apr 28, 2019 2:03 pm

Steve Haskin's Top 5
1. Omaha Beach
2. Game Winner
3. Tacitus
4. Roadster
5. Improbable

6. Maximum Security

Steve's Top 5 is solid but he should toss Improbable out of the Top 5 and replace him with Maximum Security. And Tacitus is a little bit more superior to Game Winner. They're actually almost the same horse with similar running-styles and experienced troubled starts except Tacitus has won his preps this year and GW didn't.

Now some believe when Roadster won the SA Derby, GW wasn't cranked for it and they let Roadster win to get needed points. If that theory is false and Roadster did win it legitimately, then what does that tell you about Game Winner? If it's true, what does that tell you about Roadster?

Tacitus has actually only lost once in his career which was his debut. And he beat Tax who won the Withers and ran 3rd in the Remsen. I'm still contemplating if I should use Tacitus as a win saver? Maybe a little more than that. He's Top 3 in my list. Need to wait for the draw. Handsome horse too.

Tax is a live longshot. Just had a bullet workout. A gelding like Funny Cide and Mine That Bird are. If Tax wins the Triple Crown, he's going to race beyond his 3YO season barring no life-threatening injuries. Something we never got with our recent TC winners thanks to the breeding industry.

I just hope Tacitus and Tax are not side-by-side again. ;-) Try saying it fast or try listening to their names in the same sentence over and over. It can be a tongue twister. I would love to hear Cindy Brady or Mike Tyson try to say that.

Image

I've pretty much lost nearly all hope on Improbable. There's still a simmer but it's nearly flamed out. Shame. Beautiful horse with a great stride. Great name for a Derby winner. Same connections as Justify minus Mike Smith.

Was so excited for Improbable back in December around Christmas. Even started a thread for him. Went all-out vs Omaha Beach and he still couldn't close the gap. He likely finishes anywhere between 4th-8th with 3rd-place his absolute ceiling.

My 2019 Kentucky Derby Team
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Image

^ All four horses are gorgeous too. My personal favorite in looks are Improbable and Tacitus. Game Winner is also a really nice-looking horse. I have a new sentimental favorite in Tax just because he's a gelding.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Tessablue
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Sun Apr 28, 2019 2:45 pm

Pre-draw, the horses I'm using are Tacitus, By My Standards, Omaha Beach, and Improbable.

I want a clunky longshot to use in supers, will probably be Win Win Win and/or Country House.
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Palace Malice
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Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:55 pm

My top 5 , no particular order :D

6. Vekoma
7. Maximum Security
8. Tacitus
9. Plus Que Parfait
14. Win Win Win

I really liked Long Range Toddy but I don't like his post position and he doesn't seem to have liked the rain :cry:
Last edited by Palace Malice on Fri May 03, 2019 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Big Ten
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Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:32 pm

1. Maximum Security
2. Omaha Beach
3. Tacitus
4. Improbable
5. Game Winner

^ That looks like a final Top 5 for me, rain or shine.

My Top 3 last year was...
1. Justify
2. Mendelssohn
3. Audible

Obviously, Mendelssohn was nowhere to be found like Magnum Moon and Good Magic finished 2nd. How I feel about Tacitus is similar to how I felt about Audible last year. He'll hit the tri or super but he won't win.

I can envision Tacitus winning the Belmont and maybe even the Travers instead. But winning the roses? Probably not. I'll still throw $20 to win on him minutes before post just to recover my entire capital. He's just a win saver for me.

Two weeks ago after I saw Brisnet's PPs, it really came down between Maximum Security or Omaha Beach for me similar to Justify or Mendelssohn last year. I was more in favor with Justify last year. MS vs OB is much closer. MS is still very young.

One of my Top 2 will be the winner. The other, I could care less where he finishes. I have wagers on both of them anyway. As long as one of my Top 2 wins, that's all that matters to me. The other three choices is just to try to construct a tri or super.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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