Kentucky Derby Top 5

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Curtis
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:59 pm

MySaladDays wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:29 am
I have some very specific pedigree type angles (not gonna go into it here) and I don't see Omaha Beach winning the Derby.

I like one of these horses to win: (nothing to do with exotics or bombers I will have in those)

Code of Honor - ITM FL Derby, Fountain of Youth, Champagne, and his maiden (2 G1s and 1 G2 + maiden) and working bullets consistently since mid December

Tax - 103, 102, and 101 Brisnet speed figs, all at 1-1/8th miles.

Improbable - but does he hate blinkers?

War of Will - ran 2 G1s, 2 G2s,and 2 G3s. Won 3 of them, placed in 1 of them. Only graded stakes he did really bad in was the one where he slipped at the start (LA Derby), one on Turf, and the Bourbon G3. Most experienced graded stakes horse in the race. Blew Owendale off the track in the Risen Star.

Game Winner - has highest thorograph patterns of any horse in race.

Win Win Win - despite bad numbers, has something around 5 or 6 KY Derby and Belmont winners (each) in his pedigree


Bomber for superfecta: Spinoff
We actually like some of the same horses which means if I were you, I’d definitely hit those PP’s a little harder.😉

I was impressed by Improbable’s niftiness if you will, Saturday. He’s fast, quick and athletic, all good things in a Derby hopeful. I also think he’ll go without blinkers. He was only wearing cheaters, from what I could tell, and I really don’t think they achieved the desired effect.

The FL Derby was not a true indicator, in my opinion, but given it’s shape, I think Code of Honor looks the best of that bunch coming out of it. Shug knows how to train a Derby horse.

I don’t like Game Winner’s action or that he’s going to be disadvantaged by not getting a clear trip. I think he can go wide and win, however. He seems as classy as they get and he’s no quitter. If you need a wide trip, Rosario’s your man.

I wonder if War of Will is going to be short having not gotten much out of his ultimate prep? Talent wise there is much to like. The prep will make the price honest, I would think.

I always handicap Baffert’s horses based on which one he seems to like the most. Hearing him talk leading up to the 2015 TC for instance, I was sure he preferred Pharoah to Dortmund. This year the one he likes the most, I believe, is the one I like the least. I think Roadster is going to need a certain trip to get 10f. It could happen, but more likely it won’t and how likely is it that Mikey’s going to fill Geroux in as to how to shift into those gears?
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CoronadosQuest
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:19 pm

Curtis wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:31 am
stark wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:45 am
Big Ten wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:01 am
I'm rewatching the Santa Anita Derby and I would love to see another Baffert horse / SA Derby winner win the roses like last year but Roadster was still behind over 5 lengths after they ran 1:12+. He came on strong and I knew Game Winner would get caught by him but Omaha Beach still seems speedier.
If you insist on reporting the time of the race and the fractions, then you must in all fairness report on the condition of the track that day, some people refer to it as "track variants".
In simple terms, it was like being at the beach and that day the sand resembled that closer to the parking lot rather that down my water's edge. Which would you rather walk on? Prep races have been run on both types this year, but the raw times over the recent SA surface mean absolutely nothing by comparison to anything.
You know you’re calling someone out who never responds. I liken Big Ten to that woman with the monotone voice who calls me every so often to tell me the IRS is going to prosecute my wife and I.
This cracked me up LOL
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Kurenai
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:37 pm

Matt Converse wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:56 am
1. Roadster--he's good and getting better.
2. Omaha Beach--fast, improving and a good head.
I agree 100% with Matt. I honestly think that those are the top 2 and the rest is a free for all.

My sentimental pick is Long Range Toddy :D
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Big Ten
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:22 pm

I underestimated the Wood Memorial.

I don't see much separation between the Baffert trio. Roadster might end up being the most overbet one. At least Game Winner and Improbable own a win at Churchill.

I already have my Derby Top 10 on my notes after glancing 10 minutes from Brisnet's PPs. Actually a Derby Dozen. I won't post it or my TBC Derby Contest picks until minutes before the race.

I want to maintain double digits for certain horses I like. Beware of Tax though. He is bred to go the distance.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:30 pm

Big Ten wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:22 pm
I won't post it or my TBC Derby Contest picks until minutes before the race.
Personally, and perhaps I speak for others as well, I don't think that's fair to those of us who follow you and appreciate the advice you can provide. I have to have all my bets in early in the day. Thanks in advance.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Apollo
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Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:28 pm

IMO, it is annual handicapping logic to underestimate the Wood Memorial. This isn't 1977. If those Wood horses beat me I'm willing to watch it and apply the same toss angle next year.

In particular I love it when Irish War Cry was hyped out of the Wood two years ago. He was on top of my matchup against list. Someone in another thread mentioned Bellamy Road.
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Big Ten
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Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:13 pm

Image

Juddmonte and a Wood Memorial winner. Reminds me of 16 years ago.

Juddmonte and a gray horse.
Reminds me of 3 years ago.

This kid doesn't know what the hell he's talking about...

Why Tacitus Won't Win The Kentucky Derby
https://youtu.be/y2OfxbamCkA
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Tessablue
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Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:55 pm

I'm not terribly interested in talking anyone into betting Tacitus, but I do think it's funny to think about how different the narrative would be if Eskendereya had made the race. I also don't think there are two horses further apart mentally than Tacitus and Irish War Cry.

One horse I've seen get a lot of love from handicapping forums is Tax. Personally, I don't see it at all and think Tacitus was ten miles the best in the Wood. Anyone have any thoughts on him?
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Blame
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Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:33 am

Tessablue wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:55 pm
I'm not terribly interested in talking anyone into betting Tacitus, but I do think it's funny to think about how different the narrative would be if Eskendereya had made the race. I also don't think there are two horses further apart mentally than Tacitus and Irish War Cry.

One horse I've seen get a lot of love from handicapping forums is Tax. Personally, I don't see it at all and think Tacitus was ten miles the best in the Wood. Anyone have any thoughts on him?
Tax could definitely show up and hit the board. He will get the distance and has talent. The problem with these Wood Memorial horses is they are just not in the league with a horse like Omaha Beach. Tax got an ideal trip too in the Wood. If Omaha Beach gets a good trip he isn't losing to one of the Wood Memorial horses. It is hard to see the winner not coming out of the Omaha Beach, Game Winner, Roadster, Improbable or Maximum Security crowd. Those 5 are just better than everyone else. 1 or 2 may falter, but not all five of them.
Horsebagger
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Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:41 am

Isn't it that time of year where West Point drops a bundle to have their silks run in the Kentucky Derby?
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Mylute
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Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:47 am

Horsebagger wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:41 am
Isn't it that time of year where West Point drops a bundle to have their silks run in the Kentucky Derby?
Lol.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
peeptoad
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Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:08 am

Tax seems more like a Belmont horse to me, but I think he could hit the board in the Derby. He's one I'll be using underneath in exotics.
Kennedy
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Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:30 pm

agrussel wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:17 am
Apollo wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:36 am
Yeah I miss Kennedy's list, with all the variables and sound reasoning.
Do we know the story on Kennedy?
Is he gone from this board all together and/or has he restarted his original blog?
I miss the Kennedy Corridor, which was unbelievably phenomenal, more and more each year.
I learned so much about racing, strategy, and the overall industry just from reading Kennedy's insight.
Hey guys, I have missed being around here more regularly.

I'm still around on occasion but I rarely find the time to post. I think I'm at one of those stages in life with work/family/etc... where I have time to follow racing myself but not as much time to share and converse with others. Doing well in life in general though.

I've been following the Derby trail with interest but haven't had the chance to keep and update a top 5 throughout the winter and spring. I actually did intend to create a Top 10 last November and I only got 2 names listed....Game Winner and Improbable. Now that we've rolled through road to the Derby I'm not sure I'd back either of those as my primary.

At this point I think I like all the same horses as other people. Omaha Beach, Code of Honor, Improbable, Tactitus and Tax would likely be my 5 at this point. Looking forward to doing some analysis on this group.
Kennedy
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Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:43 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:55 pm
One horse I've seen get a lot of love from handicapping forums is Tax. Personally, I don't see it at all and think Tacitus was ten miles the best in the Wood. Anyone have any thoughts on him?
I have a natural bad habit of "seeing" parallel's from one horse to another eventhough they have nothing to do with each other. When I watched the Wood and saw Tax go early then get nailed by Tacitus without ever giving up I immediately thought of Funny Cide. Maybe it was just the Juddmonte silks on his conqueror or the fact that people flocked to Tacitus as being the clearly superior animal but I actually thought Tax fought a good fight and hung in there very well. If Tacitus were clearly the best horse in the Derby I'd be all over Tax. However I'm not so sure the Wood 1-2 are as good as the Californians or at least Omaha Beach in particular.

I think if you're in the Tax corner you have to like the way he fought in the Wood. As as is being made of Tacitus's poor trip I thought Tax was likely rushed a bit as his connections were really talking about the need for points. I think he moved early and Tacitus came in on him on the lane and he was fighting until the rider seemed to just ease up content with the points for second. It looked like they were fine for a rematch.
agrussel
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Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:00 pm

Kennedy wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:30 pm
agrussel wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:17 am
Apollo wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:36 am
Yeah I miss Kennedy's list, with all the variables and sound reasoning.
Do we know the story on Kennedy?
Is he gone from this board all together and/or has he restarted his original blog?
I miss the Kennedy Corridor, which was unbelievably phenomenal, more and more each year.
I learned so much about racing, strategy, and the overall industry just from reading Kennedy's insight.
Hey guys, I have missed being around here more regularly.

I'm still around on occasion but I rarely find the time to post. I think I'm at one of those stages in life with work/family/etc... where I have time to follow racing myself but not as much time to share and converse with others. Doing well in life in general though.

I've been following the Derby trail with interest but haven't had the chance to keep and update a top 5 throughout the winter and spring. I actually did intend to create a Top 10 last November and I only got 2 names listed....Game Winner and Improbable. Now that we've rolled through road to the Derby I'm not sure I'd back either of those as my primary.

At this point I think I like all the same horses as other people. Omaha Beach, Code of Honor, Improbable, Tactitus and Tax would likely be my 5 at this point. Looking forward to doing some analysis on this group.
Great to hear from you Kennedy.
Glad to know all is well and you are still with us in spirit, if not always in conversation!

Throw us all a stat/trend or two sometime over the next 7-10 days ... for old times sake.
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Starine
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Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:03 pm

Kennedy wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:43 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:55 pm
One horse I've seen get a lot of love from handicapping forums is Tax. Personally, I don't see it at all and think Tacitus was ten miles the best in the Wood. Anyone have any thoughts on him?
I have a natural bad habit of "seeing" parallel's from one horse to another eventhough they have nothing to do with each other. When I watched the Wood and saw Tax go early then get nailed by Tacitus without ever giving up I immediately thought of Funny Cide. Maybe it was just the Juddmonte silks on his conqueror or the fact that people flocked to Tacitus as being the clearly superior animal but I actually thought Tax fought a good fight and hung in there very well.
I actually thought the same thing with Tax and Funny Cide. I think there are also other things to like about Tax: I really love that his last three races were at 9 furlongs, and I think he has one of the best distance pedigrees you will ever find: By Arch, with Giant's Causeway and A.P. Indy on the bottom.
agrussel
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Joined: Fri Feb 14, 2014 11:34 am

Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:06 pm

Top Five:
1. Tactitus
2. Roadster
3. By My Standards
4. Spinoff
5. Omaha Beach
Last edited by agrussel on Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Kennedy
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Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:29 pm

Pace makes the race..or at least that's what they say. So I always like to see if I can examine the speed horses very closely to see what their chances are like.

Categorizing a horses running style is tricky but using the following method I've broken down the field by running styles for every Derby since 1999. There is a bit of art to it but generally you can define them.

Speed - Was on the lead in the first 2 calls in a route as a 3yo
Presser - Never more than 2 lengths from the lead
Stalker - Mid-pack, is near the front by the stretch call
Closer - Greater than 10 lengths off the pace early

There have been only 49 speed horses since 1999 and they've accounted for a record of 49-4-2-2. Compare that to stalkers who have gone 4 for 153 or Closers who are 3 for 73. Pressers are 9 for 108 which is essentially the same as the Speed horses.

It's maybe not an interesting way to look at it but form holds remarkably well with speed horses. If you simply took the lowest odds on a speed horse you could get in every Derby since 1999 your record would be 19-4-2-2. The 30 speed horses who weren't the speed horse with the lowest odds were 30-0-0-0.

Advantage Omaha Beach?
Tessablue
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Location: Boston

Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:47 pm

Kennedy wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:43 pm
I have a natural bad habit of "seeing" parallel's from one horse to another eventhough they have nothing to do with each other. When I watched the Wood and saw Tax go early then get nailed by Tacitus without ever giving up I immediately thought of Funny Cide. Maybe it was just the Juddmonte silks on his conqueror or the fact that people flocked to Tacitus as being the clearly superior animal but I actually thought Tax fought a good fight and hung in there very well. If Tacitus were clearly the best horse in the Derby I'd be all over Tax. However I'm not so sure the Wood 1-2 are as good as the Californians or at least Omaha Beach in particular.

I think if you're in the Tax corner you have to like the way he fought in the Wood. As as is being made of Tacitus's poor trip I thought Tax was likely rushed a bit as his connections were really talking about the need for points. I think he moved early and Tacitus came in on him on the lane and he was fighting until the rider seemed to just ease up content with the points for second. It looked like they were fine for a rematch.
Thanks for the insight, Kennedy! It's good to see you on here. I totally get what you mean by seeing parallels- personally, Tax has reminded me a lot of old favorite Samraat, who tried hard but was never quite at the top level. I see the Funny Cide connection, although to my memory Funny Cide's Wood was by far the second-fastest race in the field, and he was coming back on Empire Maker late. Would never talk anyone off of Tax, but I do feel like he should have offered a bit more resistance to Tacitus after impeding that one early and falling into a perfect trip afterwards. I think I'm also struggling because the Withers remains impossible to decipher. Looking forward to seeing his gallops, and I do love to see those hard-working Aqueduct horses succeed!

In advance of the draw, I'm finding it hard to get away from the trio of Tacitus, By My Standards, and Omaha Beach (whom I don't love, but can't deny). It feels wrong to leave out the Baffert horses, but what sort of odds would they go off at if they were trained by anyone else? Leaning toward Improbable out of the trio, but he really feels like an all-or-nothing type here. The blinkers and jockey patterns are alarming, to say the least, but I kind of think he ran the best final prep of the Baffert trio by a fairly good margin? And what on earth do we do with Maximum Security? This year is impossible and I'm loving it.
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Big Ten
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Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:04 pm

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... a_Poll_123

Mike Smith chose the right horse since I don't think Baffert has the Kentucky Derby winner for this year but I still have some doubts Mike is on the actual winner. As long as he's on the better horse, he has a better chance to win though.

Beware of that Juddmonte horse trained by Bill Mott. That Wood Memorial was as good as the Santa Anita Derby. Juddmonte could've won the Derby in 2016 and now they have another chance with another gray horse this year.

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/s ... 537530002/
Smith said Omaha Beach is “the now horse.”

“I love his running style, and I love that he’ll handle mud and different surfaces, because that certainly can happen,” Smith said. “There’s always a chance it can be muddy at Churchill. …

“He’s got Roadster to beat and a couple horses from New York that look really good, so it’s going to be a tough Derby, but he’s not without a big chance. Like I said, I love his running style and it suits the Derby.”
These are the 12 horses in alphabetical order that can make up the exacta -

Be My Standards
Game Winner
Haikal
Improbable
Maximum Security
Omaha Beach
Roadster
Spinoff
Tacitus
Tax
Vekoma
Win Win Win

Spinoff and Tax are live longshots to run 2nd. Last year, I had Justify at #1 but Good Magic initially at 6th before he fell to 9th. He was still in my Top 10 and still put a $10 straight exacta on it. In 2017, I had Lookin At Lee in my Top 10 and also thought highly of Battle of Midway (RIP) who ran 3rd.

I'm not playing the exotics this year, so I don't care for who runs 2nd or 3rd. But I think any of those 12 horses I listed above could finish 1-2. The exacta could pay in the thousands if say a horse with a minimum of 10-1 odds is linked to a bombs away 20-1 longshot like Spinoff or Tax running 2nd.

Image

Bill Mott & Richard Mandella might go at it like 23 years ago...

In 1996, Mott had Cigar, Wekiva Springs, and Geri. Mandella had Soul Of The Matter nearly beating Cigar and then Dare And Go actually beating him.

Then Mandella trained Gentlemen, Siphon, and Sandpit to all finish 1-2-3 in the 1997 Santa Anita Handicap and Hollywood Gold Cup. Then years later with Pleasantly Perfect, Rock Hard Ten, and Beholder.

Two HOF trainers trying to win their first Kentucky Derby of their careers. I will be so happy if either one wins. Long overdue for both men.

Image

^ If this big beautiful gray horse doesn't win the Kentucky Derby, he's going to win the Belmont. He seems to love NY already and his daddy sired 3 of the last 5 Belmont winners.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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