Kentucky Derby Top 5

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Curtis
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:31 pm

Big Ten wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:30 pm
Some of Baffert/Roadster fans are making it seem Roadster is the next Justify or Arrogate and that he's going to win the Triple Crown. And none of the comments was from Baffert fanatic Kaye from Pennsylvania.

I'm not seeing it. I think Omaha Beach and Roadster are very close in ability. We'll just wait and see. I'm not putting any money on Game Winner. He's the same horse from last year. I see no improvement. He's lost twice now. He's hit his ceiling like Classic Empire two years ago.

Roadster fans
https://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Roadster_1

My options is sticking to Omaha Beach and Improbable. If Mike chooses Roadster, then I put like $20-$30 on him. Hope he's 6-1 to make $120-$180. If he sticks to OB, I'll let Roadster beat me or whoever else. I'm not going to put any more money beyond my Top 3.

1. Omaha Beach
2. Improbable
3. Roadster
They’re all Kaye from PA. Just like the haters are pretty much all Lyle Haas, who’s not a man by the way. The place is a psychologist’s dream.
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Diver52
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:24 am

Contrarian that I am, I like Game Winner. I hope he's been brought along slowly to peak the first Saturday in May. I think Roadster might run into conditioning issues although "two preps" is a mantra. The one thing I don't like about Omaha Beach is that he was fairly beaten by Nolo Contesto, who did nothing in California major preps. But it is certainly a fun Derby to handicap, although I was away for a few weeks and have no idea what to do with Maximum Security and Tacitus.
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
Apollo
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:23 am

Omaha Beach looks the part. Hard to envision him running a poor race.

Meanwhile, he has already lost 4 times. I have a difficult time setting that aside. I don't see how Mike Smith can ignore it. No matter how impressive Omaha Beach looks physically, other than the maiden win he turns everything into a struggle, even when he has much the best of it, like the victory over Game Winner or the recent win over Improbable.

Justify was winning everything by open lengths.

I'm not sure when we last had a Derby winner who owned 4+ defeats.

I'll stick with Roadster
Horsebagger
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:06 am

Apollo wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:23 am
Omaha Beach looks the part. Hard to envision him running a poor race.

Meanwhile, he has already lost 4 times. I have a difficult time setting that aside. I don't see how Mike Smith can ignore it. No matter how impressive Omaha Beach looks physically, other than the maiden win he turns everything into a struggle, even when he has much the best of it, like the victory over Game Winner or the recent win over Improbable.

Justify was winning everything by open lengths.

I'm not sure when we last had a Derby winner who owned 4+ defeats.

I'll stick with Roadster
3- 3-1 in 7 starts. A shock he's not in claimers yet.
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Mylute
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:17 am

Horsebagger wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:06 am
Apollo wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:23 am
Omaha Beach looks the part. Hard to envision him running a poor race.

Meanwhile, he has already lost 4 times. I have a difficult time setting that aside. I don't see how Mike Smith can ignore it. No matter how impressive Omaha Beach looks physically, other than the maiden win he turns everything into a struggle, even when he has much the best of it, like the victory over Game Winner or the recent win over Improbable.

Justify was winning everything by open lengths.

I'm not sure when we last had a Derby winner who owned 4+ defeats.

I'll stick with Roadster
3- 3-1 in 7 starts. A shock he's not in claimers yet.
It's stunning.
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Somnambulist
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:19 am

Do horses even race 4 times prior to the Derby anymore?
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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ThreeMustangs
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:31 am

Somnambulist wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:19 am
Do horses even race 4 times prior to the Derby anymore?
Somebody call PETA...oh, wait. :(
Horsebagger
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:49 am

ThreeMustangs wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:31 am
Somnambulist wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:19 am
Do horses even race 4 times prior to the Derby anymore?
Somebody call PETA...oh, wait. :(
Whether you agree or disagree with PETA and their agenda re: horseracing, they ARE affecting significant change in the industry. Stay tuned.
Somnambulist
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:55 am

I have heard some things, but you don't even give them an inch. This is a slippery slope I'd rather racing not have gone down.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Horsebagger
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:08 am

Somnambulist wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:55 am
I have heard some things, but you don't even give them an inch. This is a slippery slope I'd rather racing not have gone down.
I don't think anything will ever be directly (or at least publicly) attributed to the pressures of the PETA agenda. But I do not think this industry wants to potentially test the waters of a referendum in the liberal state of California banning horse racing completely.
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:51 am

That's fair but they are not a silent organization. They have tremendous sway and use social media in ways racing does not. If racing does comply with measures going forward I worry what it'll mean.

Do you really think racing could be fully banned? It accounts for such a tremendous amount of money that I'm not sure it could go away completely.

Still very little talk of TSG eliminating 35% of their seats a month before the Preakness.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
stark
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:04 am

Somnambulist wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:55 am
I have heard some things,
Is it a freakin' secret?
We're all adults here, we can handle the truth if you'll share.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Horsebagger
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:38 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:51 am

Do you really think racing could be fully banned? It accounts for such a tremendous amount of money that I'm not sure it could go away completely.
Would the liberal progressive elements in NY shoot themselves in the foot because they don't understand economics and push a job creating international company from moving it's new headquarters to the NYC suburbs ??

So, 'yes', I think its a possibility, so why risk letting it get to that point? You can't fight every fight, you just have to fight the fights that need to be fought.

Secondly, I don't think the industry as a whole wants Frank and his team to be the point person acting independently and thus steering the rest of the country in a specific direction that could be catastrophic in the end.
WaquoitNBroadBrush
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:47 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:51 am
That's fair but they are not a silent organization. They have tremendous sway and use social media in ways racing does not. If racing does comply with measures going forward I worry what it'll mean.

Do you really think racing could be fully banned? It accounts for such a tremendous amount of money that I'm not sure it could go away completely.
If the question makes it to the ballot as a binding referendum, the state has no other choice if the people vote yes, other than to prove some sort of interference/collusion/fraud, and we all know now how difficult THAT is. I don't think Massachusetts really wanted to see its two greyhound tracks shut down, any more than Florida really wants its dozen or so shut down. They were still feeding money into state coffers and it wasn't like there was a huge, broad-based groundswell movement to get the sport banned, but the Grey2K folks put a lot of money into a very visible media push and forced the state's hand. Now the state has had its most lucrative greyhound venue torn down and the other limping along on simulcasting. If Massachusetts really felt that strongly about the cruelty of dog racing, don't you think it would have banned the importing of greyhound signals from elsewhere?

So yes, it could happen to horse racing. And it could happen in a non-liberal state. Animal lovers come in blue and red and every shade in between.
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Big Ten
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:57 pm

December 25, 2018 - Improbable became my Derby horse. Now he's become my alternative behind Omaha Beach.

When I saw OB at 16-1 on my Bovada account after he won the Rebel #2, I just knew he was such a good value play because I believed he would be the Derby fav or close to it if he ran well in his final prep which he did.

If OB was trained by Baffert, it would've been 7-1 instead of 16-1. You won't find much value with Baffert contenders anymore. But Dick Mandella? Not many casual fans know him as well. So I was smiling from ear to ear when I still saw OB at 16-1 before he won the Arkansas Derby.


https://www.americasbestracing.net/the- ... erby-horse
PEDULLA: What has Omaha Beach shown you?

SMITH: Well, he’s extremely talented. He’s very tactical. Has a very high cruising speed.

PEDULLA: What has Roadster shown you?

SMITH: They’re both so talented, it’s going to be a tough decision to make. They’ve passed every test you’d want to give them with flying colors going into the Derby.

PEDULLA: Do they have any similarities?

SMITH: Just the quality, really. Omaha Beach would be a little quicker the early part of the race probably, have a little more speed. Roadster has laid a little closer at times, but the Santa Anita Derby showed he could sit back and make one run. They are both way, way above average.
I will have no qualms which horse Mike Smith chooses. I think Omaha Beach is more prepared to win the Kentucky Derby. Mike has to see the experience OB already has on the slop and his resilience. But I do think Roadster could end up the better 3YO.

Mike should choose Omaha Beach for the Kentucky Derby but then try to get the mount for Roadster back AFTER the Triple Crown races. Roadster's ceiling still hasn't been reached yet. It should be no hard feelings and I don't believe Bob Baffert is petty and vindictive that way.

OB's earlier speed and experience on the slop should be factors to Mike for choosing him. Roadster only earned a 98 BSF or nearly the same as Omaha Beach's Rebel win. It seems OB is still a couple lengths faster as well as the resiliency he's shown vs Roadster's stablemates.

And wouldn't it be nice to win 1 for Mandella while Baffert already has 5 Derby trophies? Switch trainers, and I can imagine OB getting more hype because of Baffertmania. I think looking the cleanest at the end of the Derby plays a factor too. You don't want mud all over.

If Mike stays on Omaha Beach, I stay put with my wagers. If Mike stays on Roadster, I'll put between $20-$50 on him to win at 5-1 to 6-1 depending how I feel about him that day. I hope Mike chooses OB so I can save money but I have no issues if he chooses Roadster because I would love to see the Baffert Dynasty continue...

1. Omaha Beach
2. Improbable
3. Roadster

The best 3YO today - Omaha Beach
The best-looking 3YO - Improbable
The 3YO with the best future - Roadster

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Somnambulist
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:59 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:38 pm
Somnambulist wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:51 am

Do you really think racing could be fully banned? It accounts for such a tremendous amount of money that I'm not sure it could go away completely.
Would the liberal progressive elements in NY shoot themselves in the foot because they don't understand economics and push a job creating international company from moving it's new headquarters to the NYC suburbs ??

So, 'yes', I think its a possibility, so why risk letting it get to that point? You can't fight every fight, you just have to fight the fights that need to be fought.

Secondly, I don't think the industry as a whole wants Frank and his team to be the point person acting independently and thus steering the rest of the country in a specific direction that could be catastrophic in the end.
Racing's repugnant image with the public has nothing to do with red and blue. The industry has no one to blame but itself for grappling last minute like this.

Only the city votes blue. Nassau and Suffolk and all of upstate still remain fairly conservative. I hear things daily that make me chuckle. People think NY is so liberal but if only they knew Suffolk...

Risk management is a thing for a reason.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Blame
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:31 pm

1) Omaha Beach. He is the horse to beat and will win the Derby unless he gets a bad trip. Bad trips happen though in the Derby. So no lock.

2) Will wait for post positions to fill out exactas and trifectas.
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Sparrow Castle
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:32 pm

Good discussion, Horsebagger and Som!

Laffit Pincay@LaffitPincayTV
39m39 minutes ago
BREAKING- per Mike Smith, he will ride Omaha Beach in the #KentuckyDerby

Florent Geroux@flothejock
16m16 minutes ago
It’s official, I’ll be aboard Roadster in the 145th Kentucky Derby for Bob Baffert and Speedway Stable!!!Grateful for this tremendous opportunity 🙏🏼🏇🏻🏆🌹
Tessablue
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:44 pm

No great surprise, but good that the drama wasn't prolonged. Honestly, the more I think about the SA Derby, the more I want to just toss everyone involved. I do think Omaha Beach will really need his ride to succeed in this race. Insert a joke about Geroux running interference on the rest of the field here.

Also I think industry change is badly needed, but even if it is inspired by PETA's demands, change should never be acknowledged as a capitulation because their ultimate goal is the destruction of the sport and if you give an inch you give a mile to extremists. It's fine to just pretend like we came up with the ideas ourselves in certain situations.
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Sparrow Castle
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:52 pm

Manny Franco to ride La. Derby runner-up Spinoff in Kentucky Derby, per Pletcher
Manny Franco has picked up the mount on Louisiana Derby runner-up Spinoff for the Kentucky Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher said Tuesday.

John Velazquez rode Spinoff in the Louisiana Derby, but he is riding Code of Honor, the Fountain of Youth winner, for Shug McGaughey in the Derby on May 4 at Churchill Downs.

Pletcher has two runners in the Derby. He said no rider has yet been named for Cutting Humor, the winner of the Sunland Derby.
More: http://live.drf.com/nuggets/47715-manny ... r-pletcher
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