Kentucky Derby Top 5

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Curtis
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Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:16 pm

stark wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:55 pm
A most entertaining remembery
Thanks
Another Quack fact.....during the spring of 1972, whenever the press would ask Whittingham about running Quack in the TC races, he would tell them he’s a May foal and those races would, “Knock him for a loop.” In July after Quack equaled the WR for 10f winning the Hollywood Gold Cup in a performance that is still the fastest 10f on dirt ever by a 3yo, it was brought to Charlie’s attention that Quack was actually a March foal. Whittingham winked and said, “March....May, I get them M months mixed up.” And it’s either ironic or coincidental that Quack is the grandsire of Misremembered.😉
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Diver52
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Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:49 pm

Thanks for the anecdote, Curtis--Quack was a son of my first favorite, T.V. Lark. I was touched to hear Caton Bredar say recently that perhaps her all-time favorite was another offspring of T.V. Lark, the wonderful gray filly Pink Pigeon!
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
stark
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Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:05 pm

Diver52 wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:49 pm
Thanks for the anecdote, Curtis--Quack was a son of my first favorite, T.V. Lark. I was touched to hear Caton Bredar say recently that perhaps her all-time favorite was another offspring of T.V. Lark, the wonderful gray filly Pink Pigeon!
Didn't he get an X with a circle around it in the form?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Curtis
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Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:46 pm

stark wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:05 pm
Diver52 wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:49 pm
Thanks for the anecdote, Curtis--Quack was a son of my first favorite, T.V. Lark. I was touched to hear Caton Bredar say recently that perhaps her all-time favorite was another offspring of T.V. Lark, the wonderful gray filly Pink Pigeon!
Didn't he get an X with a circle around it in the form?
I’m sure there were others but the only horse I remember with the circled X was a Johnny Bucalo trained horse, Brass. There were some other really good mudders: River Bouy, Curious Course, Stardust Mel, etc. but I think they only got an X. Those first two mentioned were claimed by a trainer named Jack Look if anyone remembers him. He used to look to claim horses that could run in mud.
tcw
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Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:19 pm

Omaha Beach
Maximum Security
Game Winner (Not as brilliant as some others, but always there at the end)
Improbable
Tacitus/Roadster

One unusual aspect of this Derby is that none of the Baffert contingent have been all that quick out of the gate/the first 1/4-mile. I've heard him mention the importance of this and it's definitely something that he/his team have focused on and usually excelled with, especially in very large Derby fields. I will be surprised if this doesn't get his/their further attention over the next few weeks.
Tessablue
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Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:24 pm

1. Tacitus- how often do you get to bet an improving horse with a glorious pedigree who you already know can handle mental and physical adversity? How often do you get to bet that horse at around 10-1? I'd be all over this guy even if he was the favorite.

2. By My Standards- he has twice run faster than older stakes horses, he ran the fastest closing fraction the La Derby in the last decade, the horse he went well-clear of in that race just finished a good third in a good edition of the Lexington, and he's training like a monster at Churchill. And unless people start to talk about his morning appearance, he figures to be around 30-1! I can't complain about it, but it's remarkable value for a horse who is already competitive on figures and only appears to be moving forward.

3. Omaha Beach- may just have a talent edge over the rest of this crop and may be the least-surprising winner. At the same time, I am very wary of the fact that he may require a frontrunning or outside trip to run his best.

4. Game Winner- this is where things start to get pretty ambiguous for me. Like the above, I'm worried that his best race puts him wide, and I don't see the progression from 2 to 3 that one would hope for in a Derby horse. But is there any doubt that he'll be running his heart out in the stretch?

5. Improbable- putting him here instead of Roadster because I don't think Roadster can get away with doing what he did in the SA Derby and his lack of experience still worries me, whereas Improbable at least has shown that adversity in larger fields won't bother him.

Past the top 2 or 3 it's pretty much a crapshoot for me right now.
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Mylute
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Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:55 pm

Improbable has the most question marks for me, I think.

I remember studying his pedigree when he had his coming out party as a juvenile and everyone began their Justify comparisons.

He's by City Zip, who was a sprinter/miler, who sired much of the same (most of his top progeny I can name off the top of my head were sprinters). City Zip is also the half-brother of a Classic winner.

But the sire is not the only parent that influences the offspring.

His dam is by A.P. Indy. Period. But his dam's damsire is Stravinsky, who like City Zip, was more of a sprinter. He also has Turkoman as a grandpa on mom's side, who performed well in Classic-distance races, but seemed to prefer around 9 furlongs. Conversely, distance runner Roberto is also there.

Horses run past their pedigree all the time, and run under it, but at the moment I don't think Improbable wants 10 furlongs. I could be wrong and he could blow by the field and be the GOAT but that's just my current impression.
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Curtis
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Sun Apr 14, 2019 3:39 pm

Mylute wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:55 pm
Improbable has the most question marks for me, I think.

I remember studying his pedigree when he had his coming out party as a juvenile and everyone began their Justify comparisons.

He's by City Zip, who was a sprinter/miler, who sired much of the same (most of his top progeny I can name off the top of my head were sprinters). City Zip is also the half-brother of a Classic winner.

But the sire is not the only parent that influences the offspring.

His dam is by A.P. Indy. Period. But his dam's damsire is Stravinsky, who like City Zip, was more of a sprinter. He also has Turkoman as a grandpa on mom's side, who performed well in Classic-distance races, but seemed to prefer around 9 furlongs. Conversely, distance runner Roberto is also there.

Horses run past their pedigree all the time, and run under it, but at the moment I don't think Improbable wants 10 furlongs. I could be wrong and he could blow by the field and be the GOAT but that's just my current impression.
It’s really fun to see how different people approach all this. Let me begin by saying you could be absolutely right, but other than nerding out over pedigree, I’m curious, what did you see yesterday in Improbable’s performance that lead you to believe he won’t get 10f any better than any of the rest of these? I had doubts after the Rebel but not after yesterday. Now he may not be as good as some of the others but is it the pedigree that will hold him back? I’m not saying you’re making this contention but two of Candy Ride’s most brilliant sons were Sydney’s Candy and Twirling Candy and both had problems at 10f. Now Game Winner’s chances are boosted because he’s by Candy Ride or so some would contend.
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Big Ten
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Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:28 pm

Mike Smith vs a trio of Baffert horses...

1. Omaha Beach
2. Improbable
3. Roadster
4. Game Winner
5. Maximum Security

The gap between all five is very close.

Omaha Beach = Baffert-killer
Beat Game Winner by a nose.
Beat Improbable by a length.
Likely steals Roadsters' jockey.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:38 pm

Big Ten wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:28 pm
Mike Smith vs a trio of Baffert horses...

Omaha Beach = Baffert-killer
Beat Game Winner by a nose.
Beat Improbable by a length.
Likely steals Roadsters' jockey.
Image
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Matt Converse
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:56 am

1. Roadster--he's good and getting better.
2. Omaha Beach--fast, improving and a good head.
3. Maximum Security--fast but will need to rate because he won't get that pace this time.
4. Bodexpress--the most improved horse in the race; could shock the world.
5. Owendale--bounced back and looked good late.
Tough leaving good horses like Game Winner, Improbable and Tacitus out of the top five; numbers-wise they are all very evenly matched other than the top two who ran a couple lengths faster. So for fourth and fifth I went with the value.
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ElPrado2
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:58 am

Don't ask names, but New York had some circles with exes in them. One I remember could have run up Niagara Falls in a rain squall. A grey. Now I have to remember his name. He wasn't a horse, he was a speed boat.
Tessablue
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:13 pm

Matt Converse wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:56 am
1. Roadster--he's good and getting better.
2. Omaha Beach--fast, improving and a good head.
3. Maximum Security--fast but will need to rate because he won't get that pace this time.
4. Bodexpress--the most improved horse in the race; could shock the world.
5. Owendale--bounced back and looked good late.
Tough leaving good horses like Game Winner, Improbable and Tacitus out of the top five; numbers-wise they are all very evenly matched other than the top two who ran a couple lengths faster. So for fourth and fifth I went with the value.
Owendale did look good, but he has no chance of making the Derby with only 20 points.
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Curtis
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:56 pm

ElPrado2 wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:58 am
Don't ask names, but New York had some circles with exes in them. One I remember could have run up Niagara Falls in a rain squall. A grey. Now I have to remember his name. He wasn't a horse, he was a speed boat.
I remember another from back in the day in Cali. Real Decision, a gray who started out with Mel Stute and then was claimed plenty. Frankel had him for awhile. He loved mud but I’m pretty sure he only got an X. Whittingham had one for Burt Bacharach named Crumbs who loved mud, but again I think he only got an X.
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Raven
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:18 pm

The mare Love Sign had that superior mudder circled X

There was a lot of horses with X in the 70s in NY
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Big Ten
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:52 pm

The 2019 Kentucky Derby winner could all be decided by a jockey.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:10 pm

Big Ten wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:52 pm
The 2019 Kentucky Derby winner could all be decided by a jockey.
If only life were so simple.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
tcw
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:22 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:13 pm
Matt Converse wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:56 am
1. Roadster--he's good and getting better.
2. Omaha Beach--fast, improving and a good head.
3. Maximum Security--fast but will need to rate because he won't get that pace this time.
4. Bodexpress--the most improved horse in the race; could shock the world.
5. Owendale--bounced back and looked good late.
Tough leaving good horses like Game Winner, Improbable and Tacitus out of the top five; numbers-wise they are all very evenly matched other than the top two who ran a couple lengths faster. So for fourth and fifth I went with the value.
Owendale did look good, but he has no chance of making the Derby with only 20 points.
Bodexpress is currently on the outside looking in but he's very close with 40 points. It looks like it will take a defection for him to get in.
BaroqueAgain1
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:03 pm

Omaha Beach: Getting good at the right time, tough in a dogfight, and maybe Mike Smith.
Tacitus: Because that pedigree!
Roadster: Tactical, with a turf horse-type stretch kick. Concern with him is that he's not a stout colt, so getting body-slammed in that big field could be an issue.
Maximum Security: Because speed is always dangerous.
Game Winner: He doesn't quit, and the extra distance may give him a chance to catch the leaders.
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Big Ten
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:30 pm

Some of Baffert/Roadster fans are making it seem Roadster is the next Justify or Arrogate and that he's going to win the Triple Crown. And none of the comments was from Baffert fanatic Kaye from Pennsylvania.

I'm not seeing it. I think Omaha Beach and Roadster are very close in ability. We'll just wait and see. I'm not putting any money on Game Winner. He's the same horse from last year. I see no improvement. He's lost twice now. He's hit his ceiling like Classic Empire two years ago.

Roadster fans
https://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Roadster_1

My options is sticking to Omaha Beach and Improbable. If Mike chooses Roadster, then I put like $20-$30 on him. Hope he's 6-1 to make $120-$180. If he sticks to OB, I'll let Roadster beat me or whoever else. I'm not going to put any more money beyond my Top 3.

1. Omaha Beach
2. Improbable
3. Roadster
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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