Kentucky Derby Top 5

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Blame
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Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:16 am

1. Code of Honor

He already has the points, should like going longer, and his turfy pedigree could make him jump up a little on the Churchill track. Trainer knows how to win Derby.

2. Improbable
3. Omaha Beach
4. Outshine
5. Game Winner
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Blame
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Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:45 am

Week 2

1 Code of Honor - Remains at Top.
2 Omaha Beach- Moves up to #2 The likely Kentucky Derby favorite.
3 Outshine
4 Game Winner- Solid Effort yesterday.
5 Improbable- Drops from 2 to 5. May not want to go 10F.
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Big Ten
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:57 am

Omaha Beach at #1. Don't care for the rest. I only care about making money on the winner.

I believe we'll have another rainy Kentucky Derby knowing this year has been very wet across the country. Mike Smith already won it last year. Horse has a good early speed. I also want to see Richard Mandella finally win a Ky Derby.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky ... -farm.aspx
1. Omaha Beach Richard Mandella
War Front—Charming, by Seeking the Gold

Yes, I’m well aware Game Winner probably should still be No. 1, but I have been enamored with this colt since his second in a maiden race and am willing to take a shot with him as opposed to the logical choice. The facts are he defeated a three-time grade 1 winner and champion in the Rebel Stakes despite never having faced winners, never having been two turns on dirt, never having won on a fast track, and coming off a quarter crack, and he still was able to dig in gamely and hold him off, with Game Winner 8 1/4 lengths ahead of the third horse. You also have to take into consideration the amount of improvement he still has and the progression he’s on, and indicated by his continuously increasing Beyer figures – 62, 78, 80, 83, 90, 96. What I loved was the way Mike Smith was sitting motionless on him at the top of the stretch while Joel Rosario was pushing hard on Game Winner, and Smith never went to the whip in the stretch. When Game Winner came charging up alongside him right before the wire and looked to have him measured, Smith hit him once left-handed and he battled back, despite Smith losing hold of the reins, which were dangling as Smith tried to grab onto anything, including the colt’s mane. Omaha Beach was clearly in front one step past the wire and quickly opened two lengths on the gallop-out. I have been so impressed with everything about this colt -- his class, his stride, his balance – that I had him ranked No. 6 off a maiden sprint score in the slop back on Feb. 5. When he came down with a quarter crack and missed a scheduled allowance race I thought that was the end of his Derby chances, but he bounced back from that has been working lights out since. By missing the allowance race and being redirected to the Rebel, the pressure is now off for him having to finish first or second next time out.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Blame
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Sat Mar 30, 2019 11:09 pm

Post FL Derby and UAE Derby.

1 Omaha Beach. Needs a good final prep.
2 Maximum Security. Might just be faster than everyone.
3. Plus Que Parfait. Peaking at the right time.
4. Game Winner. Best of the Baffert 3yr olds.
5. Code of Honor. Should love 10f, but may not be good enough.
Matt Converse
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Sun Mar 31, 2019 1:54 am

Decent list, except #3 that race was maybe Grade 3 level horses, he'd be somewhere between 5th to 12th in big preps here. Maximum Security should be #1 by far. The rest are slow.
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Big Ten
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Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:21 am

1. Omaha Beach
2. Game Winner
3. Improbable
4. Maximum Security
5. Cutting Humor

Gut feeling is the Kentucky Derby winner is going to come from the Arkansas Derby. I already have Futures with #1 & #3.

I'll put some money on Game Winner on Derby Day depending how well he runs in the SA Derby as a win saver. Perhaps more than that if he impresses me and he goes off like a lukewarm 9-2 or 4-1 chalk. I'll put $50 to make it $200.

It's going to be one of those years where a different horse wins a TC race and perhaps the Derby chalk winning streak since 2013 will finally come to an end this year. I never really bought into Hidden Scroll or Code of Honor.

I like Omaha Beach because I like Mike Smith and want to watch Richard Mandella finally win the roses. He also beat the 2YO champ and has a win in the slop. I have another gut feeling it's going to be sloppy again in Churchill.

I don't mind this musical chair year. More money can be made. But it can also be frustrating like 2017 was.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Ridan_Remembered
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Sun Mar 31, 2019 3:49 am

Although I don't have 1,2,3 picks or a particular favorite for the Derby, I would love to see these horses do good there: Long Range Toddy and Win Win Win.
stark
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Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:32 am

Where's Kennedy when we need him?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Tessablue
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Sun Mar 31, 2019 4:15 pm

I suppose this is the time of year when you're supposed to have these lists.

Game Winner- I don't love him, but I can't deny his spot here. Class and toughness, and he gets one more chance to show the brilliance he'll need to win the Derby.

Anothertwistafate- I will be very unhappy if he doesn't make the race. Has a lovely adaptable style and he can really finish.

By My Standards- Why not? He can make a trip, and he finishes well. The Louisiana Derby was perfectly competitive on figures but is likely to be overlooked on the board.

Omaha Beach- Plenty of talent and did well to beat #1 last out, I want to see him finish strongly in the AK Derby.

Tacitus- Not fast enough yet but there's reason to believe he'll improve in the Wood and his Tampa Bay Derby was pretty good off the layoff.
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Starine
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Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:03 pm

stark wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:32 am
Where's Kennedy when we need him?
Word.
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Blame
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Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:46 am

Post Santa Anita Derby, Bluegrass, and Wood

Right now I would take these 5 in a $10 exacta box for $200 and play $25 exactas boxes with Omaha Beach and the other 4. Add a $100 win bet on Omaha Beach.
Total $500. If doing well earlier on the card maybe double it up.

1 Omaha Beach. Still the horse to beat.
2 Maximum Security. Has issues, but is FAST.
3 Roadster. Baffert knows how to win Derby.
4. Plus Que Parfait. Should like the distance and surface.
5. Code of Honor. Shug will have him 100 percent for Derby.
tcw
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Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:37 am

It would be ironic in a way if the West's win the Derby with Maximum Security rather than the 2yo champ that's received most of the press and who also has the top Derby trainer.
Apollo
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Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:36 am

Yeah I miss Kennedy's list, with all the variables and sound reasoning.

Game Winner reminds me of Bates Motel. I'm not sure if that is a great comparison but it's the one that jumped out at me. I always thought Bates Motel was a tad overrated. More relentless than brilliant. He could be beaten by superior talent but he wasn't going to hand you anything. He kept his head down and just kept churning along, regardless of circumstance. That's the same impression I get from Game Winner.
agrussel
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Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:17 am

Apollo wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:36 am
Yeah I miss Kennedy's list, with all the variables and sound reasoning.

Do we know the story on Kennedy?
Is he gone from this board all together and/or has he restarted his original blog?
I miss the Kennedy Corridor, which was unbelievably phenomenal, more and more each year.
I learned so much about racing, strategy, and the overall industry just from reading Kennedy's insight.
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Curtis
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Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:12 pm

Apollo wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:36 am
Yeah I miss Kennedy's list, with all the variables and sound reasoning.

Game Winner reminds me of Bates Motel. I'm not sure if that is a great comparison but it's the one that jumped out at me. I always thought Bates Motel was a tad overrated. More relentless than brilliant. He could be beaten by superior talent but he wasn't going to hand you anything. He kept his head down and just kept churning along, regardless of circumstance. That's the same impression I get from Game Winner.
I think Bates Motel had more turn of foot. There was a guy who used to post on here that was John Gosden’s assistant back then and he told me once that Bates Motel was a really slow learner. One day, he said, a light went on and it was as if Bates Motel said, “Oh that’s what you want.....you want me to pass those horses.” Bates Motel reminded me of Quack a particular favorite of mine. Both, I thought were really talented but seemed to get confused when they made the lead. The best style for them was to lag back and make one big run. Both were big horses with long strides and once you got them rolling they would just run by everyone and momentum would carry them to the wire. Game Winner hasn’t shown me that sudden acceleration so the trip is the key. He has a good amount of fight in him though so if he’s there or thereabout in the stretch, you’re right, he’ll make you earn it. Neither of the first two I mentioned ever won a photo, I believe.
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Diver52
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Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:47 pm

I definitely remember Quack losing a photo--I think in the Hollywood Gold Cup to Kennedy Road (I almost wrote "Quality Road"). He was very talented but unsound as heck.
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
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Blame
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Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:17 am

Apollo wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:36 am
Yeah I miss Kennedy's list, with all the variables and sound reasoning.
Would it have killed him to throw a winner or two in there with all his sound reasoning? :lol:
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Curtis
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Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:41 pm

Diver52 wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:47 pm
I definitely remember Quack losing a photo--I think in the Hollywood Gold Cup to Kennedy Road (I almost wrote "Quality Road"). He was very talented but unsound as heck.
Yeah, that race with Kennedy Road—1973 Hollywood Gold Cup—was pretty famous. Quack also lost the ‘72 Santa Anita Derby—to Solar Salute—and that year’s Cinema Handicap—to Finalista—in photos. He did have pretty chronic soundness issues. Quack was probably around 17.1h and had ankles the size of grapefruit, albeit not as firm. Whittingham once said he couldn’t train him but he could run him. So Charlie swam him and galloped Quack as much as four miles, clockwise. He would only work him sporadically as Quack couldn’t stand up to it. Steve Valdez told me that once he rode Quack after a long layoff in a 1mile allowance prep for the 1974 Big ‘Cap. Don Pierce was serving days so Whittingham put Valdez up on Quack. Charlie told Steve to let Quack drop back to last and at the 1/4 pole swing him out and hit him once and only once, Charlie said, “We win this and they’ll give him 134 for the Big ‘Cap so only hit him once!” Steve said he was launched up to 4th in a matter of a couple of strides after that one use of the crop. He then said, “If I hit him once more we win by three.” Instead, Valdez followed instructions and Quack finished third, just under 2 lengths behind Tri Jet—with Linda’s Chief in between. Tri Jet, that summer, would win the Whitney setting a NTR that would stand until Lawyer Ron broke it in 2007. That was some allowance race and I believe it was a 10 horse field. To illustrate how amazing that was, the San Antonio ran the day before. Things were different then. Quack was high weight for the Big ‘Cap with 126. He caught a heavy track he hated and finished fifth.
stark
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Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:55 pm

A most entertaining remembery
Thanks
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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pointgivenfan
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Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:13 pm

Blame wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:17 am
Apollo wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:36 am
Yeah I miss Kennedy's list, with all the variables and sound reasoning.
Would it have killed him to throw a winner or two in there with all his sound reasoning? :lol:
If memory serves, the winner of the Derby fell into the top echelon of his analysis model almost always. If I'm wrong, maybe he'll appear out of the ether to correct me.
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