2018 Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) - Nov 3rd

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Treve
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Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:44 pm

Churchill Downs
1 mile 1/2 on Turf
4 000 000$
Post Time: 4:56 pm Eastern

Horse - Jockey - Trainer - ML
1. Talismanic (GB) | Mickael Barzalona | André Fabre | 12-1
2. Enable (GB) | Frankie Dettori | John Gosden | 1-1
3. Channel Maker | Jose Ortiz | Bill Mott | 12-1
4. Robert Bruce (CHI) | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Chad Brown | 10-1
5. Magical (IRE) | Ryan Moore | Aidan O'Brien | 10-1
6. Arklow | Florent Geroux | Brad Cox | 30-1
7. Glorious Empire (IRE) | Julien Leparoux | James Lawrence II | 12-1
8. Liam the Charmer | Tyler Gaffalione | Michael McCarthy | 30-1
9. Quarteto de Cordas (BRZ) | Brian Hernandez Jr. | L. Esteves | 30-1
10. Hi Happy (ARG) | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 20-1
11. Sadler's Joy | Javier Castellano | Thomas Albertrani | 30-1
12. Waldgeist (GB) | Pierre-Charles Boudot | André Fabre | 9-2
13. Hunting Horn (IRE) | Wayne Lordan | Aidan O'Brien | 30-1
Last edited by Treve on Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BaroqueAgain1
Posts: 10352
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Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:20 pm

Enable already beat most of those Euros in the Arc, and I don't think there are any American turf horses who could have challenged the field in the Arc.
Barring sh*t happening the race, I'm all in on Gosden's star filly.
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Northport
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Location: probably near the food

Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:57 pm

If Enable loses, it will be because something went way way wrong, and I will be super bummed.


Buuuuut, Magical has been on the improve lately, she could have another big run in her. Aidan's team seem to be hitting their stride after the bug that knocked most of his yard out for the Summer.
weeeeeeeee
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Mylute
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Location: Alabama

Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:38 am

Other than Enable and Talismanic, I'm not super familiar with the other Euros.

Love those two but I'd still like to see one of the American boys take it, like Sadler's Joy or Channel Maker (because of their sires).
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
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ThreeMustangs
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Location: Florida

Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:04 pm

Enable looked really good this morning. Bright, alert, and ready to go. She is the horse I'm most excited to see in person at the BC this year.
BaroqueAgain1
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:01 am

You're going to be at Churchill on Saturday? Good for you, and I hope you have great seats...and that it doesn't rain on you. :P
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ThreeMustangs
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Location: Florida

Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:13 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:01 am
You're going to be at Churchill on Saturday? Good for you, and I hope you have great seats...and that it doesn't rain on you. :P
This time, I made sure to get covered seats. I’m too old to sit in the rain. :lol:
Izvestia
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:38 am

I’m really excited to see Enable in this race, and will be cheering for her and Channel Maker.
agrussel
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:57 pm

I get it ... she's a superstar and world class.

But ...
Arc winners are 0 for 6, 22 of the last 24 winners of the BC Turf had 3-8 starts during the year (5 of the last 7 had 6-8 starts) and she's had 2, this will be her first time on Lasix, her first time traveling across the pond, and she did have knee problems earlier this year.

Question, I watched video of her recent Arc win ... I thought she was all out to win and hold, to her credit she did.
Could she move right on and succeed, certainly, but could that all in effort in the Arc have taken something out of her, possibly.

I know I'm stretching here ... totally get that ... but ... I can make a case against.
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Treve
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Thu Nov 01, 2018 2:56 pm

agrussel wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:57 pm
I get it ... she's a superstar and world class.

But ...
Arc winners are 0 for 6, 22 of the last 24 winners of the BC Turf had 3-8 starts during the year (5 of the last 7 had 6-8 starts) and she's had 2, this will be her first time on Lasix, her first time traveling across the pond, and she did have knee problems earlier this year.

Question, I watched video of her recent Arc win ... I thought she was all out to win and hold, to her credit she did.
Could she move right on and succeed, certainly, but could that all in effort in the Arc have taken something out of her, possibly.

I know I'm stretching here ... totally get that ... but ... I can make a case against.
Found has won the Arc and Turf just not in the same year.
You bring up good points but here are additional ones.
You're taking an interesting but opposing approach - most analysts mention that the previous Arc winners who tried to win the Turf in the same year, actually ran in the Turf as an afterthought and were often deep into their campaigns by then, so they reason Enable would be closer to the profile of those who only ran a few times.
Enable won the Arc off a single prep all year and was only at 80% so one could argue the Arc is more of the prep for the Turf. John Gosden also had mentioned prior that he wouldn't go with her to the BC if she didn't come out well. He did mention she was tired immediately after, but then seemed to regain even more energy than before the Arc.

I certainly think it could be worth trying to take a crack at her. I think Waldgeist could be dangerous, Fabre doesn't bring horses over just because. Magical could be another Found and there's also Robert Bruce who has been looking fantastic running great all year so you could find value there potentially.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BaroqueAgain1
Posts: 10352
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:26 pm

One of the TVG reporters (maybe Caton?) said that she watched Enable when she went out for a canter on the turf course (yesterday?), and she was full of energy. Frankie had trouble pulling her up, with the filly really eager to keep going.
The course was pretty soft, with most of the turf workers kicking up divots. Enable, however, floated over the grass, kicking no clods behind her, per Caton.
:D
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