2018 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) - Nov 3rd

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Treve
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:07 pm

Curtis wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:53 pm
Treve wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:14 pm
Curtis wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:11 pm
Mike Smith did choose McKinzie for what that’s worth. I think people need to be careful with the “All Baffert horses work well” talk. It has to be taken in the context of the horse. A horse can work fast but not well. A lot of folks—Baffert included—talked themselves into Arrogate working well into last year’s BC. He wasn’t, he was working fast enough but something just didn’t look right and he ran to it. I do think both his horses are coming up to the race well, I prefer West Coast out of the two but we’ll see.
That's my point exactly. Arrogate was working faster than he had in the past so people were saying he was working well when visibly it wasn't the case to anyone looking. If someone says West Coast is usually disinterested (as Arrogate was) but is now suddenly working "lights out" that could be bad or good, and I haven't seen the horse myself so I immediately get skeptical when someone brings up "people are saying he's working well" (not even saying they've seen those works themselves but rather basing their opinion on hearsay). What I like to see personally are horses with good form being consistent with the way they work. Change usually means something but doesn't always mean it is good.

People were saying Good Magic was training like a beast before the Travers, too.
My point is West Coast is working well in context to West Coast. He’s the type of horse, in my opinion, who cannot be worked up to a big race off of a long layoff. The race he ran gave him fitness—you could see he was short in the Awesone Again—and now he looks more awake and like the horse he was when he was on a regular race pattern. Good Magic is apples and oranges. Although people didn’t want to see it, he was used down the stretch in the Haskell until the last few yards. He was a bounce candidate in the Travers, didn’t have an optimal trip and may have had an issue begin to surface since he was retired soon after. Works are very specific to a given horse. They’re not all Unique Bella who took the bit and told the rider to hang on tight. Some of the things seen are subtle. I think West Coast is working up to a race well for West Coast and if he can run at or near his best, he’ll be tough, he’s a 10f horse and I don’t know I can say that about all the rest.
Yes, that's my point exactly... But I don't see how Good Magic is apples to oranges - I'm NOT comparing him to West Coast currently coming into the Classic, maybe you're misinterpreting my posts because you're spending time defending West Coast when I am NOT trying to build a case against him or knock him down or saying he won't perform well here. Far from it. I am just expressing skepticism about his ML odds.

My point of contention is that workouts aren't the be all end all, and when people "say" a horse is "working well" or "training awesome" I take it with a grain of salt unless I've seen it myself, and more importantly just because a horse is "working well" (or people are saying it is) doesn't automatically warrant betting favouritism, since as we have seen in both the case of Arrogate and Good Magic, just because people "say" a horse is working well, doesn't mean the horse actually is. (As a matter of fact if I was comparing Good Magic to anything, it was the example you laid out with Arrogate: i.e. just because people "say" a horse is working well, doesn't necessarily mean they actually are)

My point is... rely on what you see, not on what you hear (unless what you're listening to is hoofbeats, heartbeats or snorts!)
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Curtis
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:32 pm

I have watched his recent works. What did you not like about them? What did you think of Good Magic’s pre Travers work in comparison to the way he looked prior to other races and do you think the way he was working is the main reason he ran poorly? Your point is to not listen to others which is pretty much Racetrack Betting 101. Trust me, I’m not defending West Coast. I hope people missed Racetrack Betting 101, follow you, bet with both hands and he goes off at 500-1.
Tessablue
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:43 pm

I mean, it's hard to find workout videos for most races and long-term study requires an amount of time and resources that not everyone has access to. Personally, I trust the opinion of experts like Mike Welsch and use clocker reports as tiebreakers in situations like this. This Classic is really difficult to handicap, but if it looks at all likely that West Coast will return to his best race, he's a probable winner in my opinion. But either way, the original context for this discussion was the feasibility of West Coast's ML odds. If he's working well and there's a lot of buzz around him, his odds are going to decrease independent of whether or not that's a good indicator of his chances.

(also... as one of the people Curtis mentioned who convinced themselves Arrogate was fine going into the Classic last year, I'm quite happy to outsource those observations this time around!)

For the record, the current second choice overseas is McKinzie at 5-1 followed by Catholic Boy (6-1) and West Coast at 7-1. I did not realize that Mike Smith chose McKinzie for this race (very out of the loop still), so that's certainly interesting, but I really don't feel this horse at all. Baffert is great at prepping horses (especially 3yos) for this race, but that Pennsylvania Derby left me pretty cold. Wide right off a slow pace on a track that favored wide horses all day, weaving through the stretch against a runner-up who had never been much more than solid... I'm sure he needed the race, but the value isn't there for me.
stark
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:03 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:43 pm
Personally, I trust the opinion of experts like Mike Welsch and use clocker reports as tiebreakers in situations like this.

Like this...
https://twitter.com/Racingwithbruno/sta ... 2972189696
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
katmandu
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:23 pm

stark wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:03 pm
Tessablue wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:43 pm
Personally, I trust the opinion of experts like Mike Welsch and use clocker reports as tiebreakers in situations like this.

Like this...
https://twitter.com/Racingwithbruno/sta ... 2972189696
Mig really likes Yoshida, too. . .
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Treve
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Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:29 pm

Curtis wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:32 pm
I have watched his recent works. What did you not like about them? What did you think of Good Magic’s pre Travers work in comparison to the way he looked prior to other races and do you think the way he was working is the main reason he ran poorly? Your point is to not listen to others which is pretty much Racetrack Betting 101. Trust me, I’m not defending West Coast. I hope people missed Racetrack Betting 101, follow you, bet with both hands and he goes off at 500-1.
I listen to the opinion of others insofar as I like to hear maybe things I've missed and usually take a look at what the experts might say, but I don't fall back on them especially if I already have a strong opinion (I don't always, and sometimes I lack such confidence I just pass altogether even if I find what others are saying 'makes sense'). I am very much still learning. A lot I might say.

As mentioned before, I haven't looked at West Coast closely yet, which is why I said that I didn't know in this case if the difference in his works were good or bad, they could be either or. He's not a horse I've ever really been high on though, so I haven't followed him closely and I'd have to research his past works prior to his past performances to make an accurate gauge. I haven't really even had time to sit down and handicap this race because I think, like TB, this is an incredibly difficult race to handicap (although that ironically makes it a good betting race if you're confident with your picks).

The only thing I can say about West Coast is pertaining to his actual racing form. While there is no shame in losing to Gun Runner in either the Pegasus or the Classic, I do wonder if he should've been able to catch Collected in the Classic, and in my eyes, watching the replay of the Dubai World Cup he had no excuse losing to Thunder Snow, especially not by such a margin and nearly losing 2nd to Mubtaahij. (Hence my earlier comment about how I am not certain that his best form is enough to tower over this field, when one of the candidates I'm cold on here has soundly beaten him. I know people want to talk about the bias in Meydan, but TS was actually to the outside of WC for the first part of the race, WC had every chance to take the rail and didn't, but in spite of that he stayed close enough to both TS and the rail that the margin shouldn't have been what it was on account of the bias alone). I also think it's telling Mike Smith has chosen McKinzie instead (not that jockeys are always right but it makes me wonder if I should have any confidence in a horse whose regular rider has bypassed in favour of a 3 year old with suspect chances). I can find excuses for his last out, and one can reasonably expect him to improve off that effort the question is, will it be enough? I will say I think West Coast is consistent, talented and suits the distance and I think I'd use him in exotics if I like his works and get a chance to see him move over Churchill, as well as his price being not too crazy. Just not convinced I'd use him on top of any of my plays, unless he really wows me. Baffert may be a genius at prepping horses for this race and I know he had a respiratory viral infection in his barn, but I'm not convinced this is a year he can get away with his usual tour de force as easily.

Re: Good Magic, prior to the Travers the whispers through the grapevine were that he was working strong, looking good etc. As I recall to me his works only seemed strong because he was urged to be, rather than doing it with ease/himself, where prior to some of his best efforts he was clearly doing most of the work on his own. On Travers day as he walked by me to the Paddock I thought he looked dull. I was already off him but that really put me off. I didn't expect him to do as badly as he did though, I'll say even that surprised me, so when the next few days we heard of a potential fever, that at least made more sense.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


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bare it all
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:38 am

Interesting that Mike did make that choice. I can't imagine that choosing West Coast here would have lost him the 2019 mount on McKinzie, assuming that one trains on. I think in my betting, I will have to make this a huge consideration when making tickets. If West Coast wasn't good enough for Mike and he's risking a big payday, why should he be good enough for my meager wagers?
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Mylute
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:13 am

Taking this time to wish everybody a Happy Halloween

Image

May your day be filled with many spooks and frights and candies
Last edited by Mylute on Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Curtis
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:15 am

bare it all wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:38 am
Interesting that Mike did make that choice. I can't imagine that choosing West Coast here would have lost him the 2019 mount on McKinzie, assuming that one trains on. I think in my betting, I will have to make this a huge consideration when making tickets. If West Coast wasn't good enough for Mike and he's risking a big payday, why should he be good enough for my meager wagers?
Well he gave up West Coast last year to ride Arrogate, who was only going to run one more time, and didn’t get the mount back until his most recent race. If he chose West Coast and McKinzie were to run big Saturday, I don’t think it’s automatic that he gets that mount back. McKinzie may very well have the higher ceiling and barring injury we’ll get to see it. I think West Coast could be a terrific 5yo but only a mare is going to experience that. I think Mike, this year, is looking at the big picture.
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Big Ten
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:26 am

Accelerate is the class of the field. He has been getting 110+ BSFs all year.

With that said, I'll try to beat him with Catholic Boy with a smaller side bet on Thunder Snow.

117 - West Coast
115 - Accelerate
111 - Thunder Snow
108 - Mind Your Biscuits
107 - McKinzie
104 - Catholic Boy
102 - Yoshida

West Coast hasn't won in so long and Biscuits might be stretching too far.

Reason why I like Catholic Boy so much is I watched him run on the wrong lead and get headed like 3x and he still won the race each time. This horse has guts. I'm worried about Thunder Snow's post and if it rains.

Accelerate reminds me a little of bit of Drug O'Neill's Lava Man and my Rock Hard Ten. Maybe he just loves California more? Then again, his form reminds me a little of Gun Runner (at 4) too. At Accelerate's prime age of 5, his class might just be too good.

I still have that video the day Accelerate won the San Diego and Arrogate ran off the board. The place and show payouts were crazy. I can remember some dude yelling, "He blew it, man! He blew it!" referring to Arrogate.

I've liked McKinzie since the Derby trail after battling Bolt d'Oro but not at 6-1. I haven't seen him run a mile and a quarter yet. The Justify trainer/jockey combo is nice and all but not at those low odds. I get more out of the Travers than Pennsylvania Derby.

Value -
Catholic Boy
Thunder Snow

Perhaps the class -
Accelerate
McKinzie

Bottom exotics use -
Yoshida
West Coast
Mind Your Biscuits

Sorry, Mendy and Gunny.

I lost $100 on my LA Clippers last night. Gawd, I hate the NBA. Up 13 and they blew the lead. Stupid calls on my team who I feel are cursed and will always be losers. So rigged. I have to play the BC Classic to try to recover it.

Win
12-1 Thunder Snow x 10 = $120
8-1 Catholic Boy x 20 = $160

Good betting race. Plenty of value all over. At least half the field has a good shot winning it.

If this was in Santa Anita, I would be all over Accelerate and McKinzie. Perhaps singling Accelerate on top. It isn't. My East Coast love is for Catholic Boy growing up a Roman Catholic boy myself.

Last two times BC was held in Churchill -
2010 - Blame (East Coast horse)
2011 - Drosselmeyer (East Coast horse)

If Catholic Boy wins the Travers and BC Classic, it still won't be enough to win 3YO male champ and HotY. An undefeated Triple Crown winner simply won't be denied that honor.

Thunder Snow winning would be ironic after his bronco rodeo show in last year's Kentucky Derby. He looks primed up. I hope he gets a clean break and gets a dry track. The dancing fool could win the DWC and BCC in the same year. Very cool!
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:29 am

Probably the minority opinion, but I don't think Mike$ or any other jock makes the decision when it comes to Baffert, Pletcher, maybe even Brown when they have multiple horses in a race with conflicting jockey assignments.

Rather, I think that their agent says something like...."we're open and appreciate which ever mount you give us, thanks"

Then, for whatever reason, the super trainers make their own decisions, thinking they know who fits which horse the best.
If the super trainer asks the agent for their opinion, then and only then do they voice their first choices.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Big Ten
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:19 pm

My final bet could look something like this -

$20 Win - #3 Catholic Boy
$10 Win - #1 Thunder Snow

I might play Accelerate over Catholic Boy, Thunder Snow, McKinzie, and Yoshida exacta but it's a tricky race that ends up being more costly because like I mentioned before, half the field (7 horses) could win the race with a few more who have a good shot running 2nd.

This 2018 Breeders' Cup Classic is actually a better betting race than the last five Kentucky Derby runnings. California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, and Justify were all a cinch to play on top. Many of us will be getting over 6-1 on many of our choices.

Yoshida has the perfect running-style to come barreling down the lane late but I'm just not sure if he is fast enough and has the class. A Japanese horse winning the BCC just hasn't happened yet. I'm not betting it will happen this Saturday either.

I feel there is now a West Coast-bias in the speed figs or perhaps they truly are the class? I'm split down the middle which is why I'm not going for a California horse this year at those odds. I remember Lava Man being 7-0 in 2006 before he ran a clunker in Churchill.

Catholic Boy's time in the Travers was very good. It was near the level of American Pharaoh's loss in it. The question remains if he can beat his elders on dirt?

2015 Travers: 1:35.08, 2:01.57 (26.49)
2018 Travers: 1:36.29, 2:01.98 (25.69)

Catholic Boy's 2018 races
https://youtu.be/gZ5VqtDRuCI
https://youtu.be/uAlCUbozi7M
https://youtu.be/apjCJG-weLE

Thunder Snow's 2018 Dubai World Cup
https://youtu.be/ezsEQMXGPx0

As Jay Privman mentioned in his article, I like this field because several of them are versatile on multiple surfaces. I like the acceleration Catholic Boy and Thunder Snow showed in their most recent dirt wins. That turf horse late-kick.

Thunder Snow could be another UAE horse for course like Mendy showed in Meydan. Still, how often can bettors get the reigning Dubai World Cup winner at 12-1? Training beautifully too..

Why not return to Churchill to win after being labeled the dancing fool who was smart not to run in that mess in last year's Kentucky Derby? I'm going to keep headbangin' to AC/DC's "Thunderstruck" this week in honor of the reigning DWC champ..

https://youtu.be/v2AC41dglnM
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Horsebagger
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:05 pm

Treve wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:29 pm

Re: Good Magic, prior to the Travers the whispers through the grapevine were that he was working strong, looking good etc. As I recall to me his works only seemed strong because he was urged to be, rather than doing it with ease/himself, where prior to some of his best efforts he was clearly doing most of the work on his own. On Travers day as he walked by me to the Paddock I thought he looked dull. I was already off him but that really put me off. I didn't expect him to do as badly as he did though, I'll say even that surprised me, so when the next few days we heard of a potential fever, that at least made more sense.
Here's his pre-Travers work. Nothing about what you said seems to be confirmed by the video, let alone he's trained by Chad Brown who's workers are rarely 'urged' at all. Whether he seemed dull pre-race is different, though, and probably a good call given how he ran whether you bailed on him already or not.

https://www.xbtv.com/video/good-magic-w ... 17th-2018/
Tessablue
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:08 pm

It's interesting that Mike chose McKinzie, but not much more than that. He hasn't consistently ridden West Coast, and honestly, jockeys don't always seem to be very good at choosing horses. "Jockey picked another horse" is an angle that would probably net you a positive ROI in the Derby.

Those side-by-side XBTV videos are great. I really appreciate how much they have come to emphasize works, and it's so nice to have more access to that information.
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Big Ten
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:12 pm

I might add - $10 exacta 14 w/ 1, 3.

I think Accelerate has shown more brilliance and dominance than Lava Man did in most of 2006. His class and guts is tough to ignore.

The chalk + an 8-1 & 12-1 should still pay nicely. Even $30-$40 minimum x 5 is decent. I like this losing effort by him. City of Light and Accelerate closed fast.

https://youtu.be/ir8OZDygkMA

A threat to Justify's HotY award if he romps. Most of his G1s were won in California but the speed figs were all pretty high and he dominated them in open company.

As a Justify fan and bettor, I prefer if Accelerate loses. It seals the deal for Justify. But it's hard to ignore Accelerate's class because he is at least 5-10 pts than most of this field.

Accelerate's 4th best fig of this year (Oaklawn Hdcp) matches Justify's Santa Anita Derby. As seen from the Ky Derby during the last five years, the one with the most consistent highest Beyer figures wins the race.

Say Accelerate does run a 107 in CD like he did in OP. That's still higher than any race this year's Travers and Woodward winners have ever run.
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Mylute
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Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:30 am

I don't bet but if I did I would he sure to put Discreet Lover on the ticket, for third/fourth or just to hit the board.

I'm probably one of three people on the planet that thinks he has a chance to hit the board. He usually outruns his odds and he showed a lot of heart in the JCGC, even if he got a "good trip" (I say that because people will say a horse only won because he got a good trip after every race). He also doesn't mind slop.

Not sure if I would compare him to Hoppertunity but he sure does seem to always get there is some way just like Hopper.

It would be optimal for Discreet Lover to get a good pace, but I'm not sure what the speed is here.
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Sparrow Castle
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Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:33 pm

FWIW


Smith Explains Choosing McKinzie Over West Coast in Classic, Baffert’s Genius
Fans might think Mike Smith tipped trainer Bob Baffert’s hand in the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday by opting to ride highly-regarded 3-year-old McKinzie instead of the more proven West Coast. That might not necessarily be the case.

Smith suggested his decision to ride McKinzie was based more on what the future might hold than what the present might bring.

“It was a really tough decision for me to choose him over West Coast. West Coast is extremely talented and could easily be in the winner’s circle that day,” Smith said. “But it’s going to be his last race whereas McKinzie is going to run all of next year, the good Lord willing, and there is a lot of fun stuff that could happen.”

Baffert noted that Gary and Mary West, who own West Coast, are interested in giving him one last start beyond the Classic, in the $9 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational on Jan. 26 at Gulfstream Park. Whether or not he goes on to that race, the time for his retirement to Lane’s End Farm in Versailles, Ky., is drawing near.

There is the chance that McKinzie, more highly regarded than eventual undefeated Triple Crown winner Justify when this eventful season began, is just beginning to scratch the surface of what he can do. According to Smith, he did not want to risk losing the mount for the long haul.

“If someone else was to jump up and win the Breeders’ Cup Classic with McKinzie,” Smith said, “I don’t think Bob would take him off.”
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Big Ten
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Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:57 pm

Varied top picks.

https://www.americasbestracing.net/gamb ... selections

I ended up getting free money from Bovada to use. It was only $26.59. Instead of the WWE-staged NBA where social media is BSPN's clickbait, I decided to put the money on Catholic Boy and Thunder Snow.

Try to recover my losses from the stupid Clippers meltdown in OKC. Knowing my luck, CB might run 2nd and TS finishes dead last. I honestly feel Accelerate or one of the Baffert horses wins the race. Accelerate, West Coast, or McKinzie. They are the fastest on paper.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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