Roadster

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Diver52
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Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:44 pm
Location: Redlands, CA

Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:35 pm

Curtis--I was supposed to leave for an African safari in two weeks. :( You be careful!
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
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CoronadosQuest
Posts: 1629
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:44 pm

Sun Apr 28, 2019 3:21 pm

stark wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:48 pm
Diver52 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:27 pm
The problem is spotting the .1%. ;)

I prefer Game Winner of the Bafferts. I thought Roadster's return was really good, considering the doubts raised by his disappointing DM Futurity, and his kick in the SA Derby impressed me. I just think he has the potential to be discombobulated by a big field and messy race.
and don't forget about the "other Baffert" angle whoever that is.
I sort of think the other Baffert is Improbable right now. I hear a lot about Roadster and Game Winner but not as much about Improbable. Maybe its just me though.
Spahny
Posts: 1037
Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:02 pm

Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:14 pm

Game Winner for me. He's run two very good seconds this year and he looks like he is coming into his best race. I didn't really like him starting the year but he's won me over.
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Big Ten
Posts: 785
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:59 pm

I texted my uncle the yesterday and asked him who he liked in the Derby? He said Roadster all the way. His opinion do matter to me because he hit $14K in the 2013 BC Classic when Bayern won it. I forgot what wager had.

My uncle is only 12-years older than me (age 50) but he's a degenerate gambler who can hit big. While I only bet once per year and only try to hit a few hundred bucks. Roadster is a good horse. I'm not dismissing him at all. I can't be betting on like 5-6 of them.

I like Game Winner a little more to be honest among all the Baffert horses. Same jockey who has won the Derby before. Barely lost to Omaha Beach. Won the BCJ in Churchil. Roadster is going to be overbet. He should be more like 10-1 or higher.

I think Maximum Security and Tacitus should have lower odds than him. MS has stayed in Florida like Roadster has only raced in California. Tacitus has shipped before. We'll know tomorrow once the draw happens.

1. Maximum Security
2. Omaha Beach

3. Tacitus

4. Game Winner
5. Improbable
6. Roadster

My picks aren't really ever official until minutes before the race. Roadster and Improbable should have nearly the same odds. Roadster should be 10-1 and Improbable at 11-1. Maximum Security should be 5-1 (2nd choice) and Tacitus should be 7-1 (ala Audible). Omaha Beach should be chalk at 9-2.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
Posts: 5353
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:16 am

Post position #17 is really due for a win!

0/40, but who's counting ;)
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Big Ten
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Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:14 pm

My uncle might have to change his mind now after seeing Roadster with the winless #17 post. Roadster doesn't seem to be getting any Derby luck when he loses his rider and gets a dreaded post.

I remember back in 2006 when Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron both got terrible posts. Some years, the draw doesn't matter. Like in 2008 when Big Brown won from post #20. But other years it can matter because of running styles, strategies, and how close horses are in talent.

Roadster got the short end of the stick.

https://www.americasbestracing.net/the- ... he-numbers

#5 - 10 wins
#10 - 9 wins
#8 - 8 wins
#7 - 7 wins
#16 - 4 wins
#12 - 3 wins
#17 - 0 wins

Game Winner has a more favorable post than Omaha Beach. But I think Mike would rather have #12 than #17.

I don't care if #10 has 9 winners. I'll have no money on Cutting Humor because I don't think highly of Todd Pletcher and I won both Derbies he won. I see another bottom 5 finish like Magnum Moon last year.

A Baffert horse basically has the best position (#5) and worst (#17). Thank goodness I had Improbable way back in December. This is the kinda luck he needs but I see his ceiling about 3rd place finish at best. Likely finishes anywhere between 4th-8th.

Improbable is a beautiful horse though. My personal favorite in looks and how he moves. I just don't see a son of City Zip getting there 1st.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Sat May 04, 2019 9:00 am

Dear Roadster,

Win or lose it's been a fun ride so far, thanks for the memories since last June when you became known as the TMZ steam horse.
I've already made some cash off of you plus won some bragging rights amongst friends.
I think you're going to feel very comfortable when you load into the gate and look over and see your primary opponent just inside of you in barn mate GameWinner, you've got him to beat today, keep an eye on him as you go 'round.
And don't overlook that other guy down in stall 5, maybe he's the "other Baffert", but looking at the odds board it seems like that moniker just might be you and that's fine with me, a very successful betting angle over the years!
You will no doubt be one of the feature pieces for NBC this year, as they compare your epiglottis with with that of Omaha Beach. It's as they say....timing is everything and I think your schedule worked out perfect, a horse's best effort often comes in their 3rd race off a layoff.
I think you're going to float over the surface at Churchill after prepping in the depths of SantaAnita. The racing and the workouts have given you a conditioning edge on your opponents. No sweat-no gain and it's paid off, you're stronger and better off because of it. Some announcer will tell the comparison of running on dry sand at the beach vs. running down by the edge of the water and how much easier it is like it'll be today for you.
I have a hunch that horseplayers across the country will enjoy seeing FloTheJock's picture on tomorrow morning's newspapers sitting atop you while holding the Kroger garland of roses , it'll be a good story and just what we need right now.
Enjoy the trip my friend, be safe!

Harvey.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
katmandu
Posts: 1212
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:16 am

Sat May 04, 2019 1:23 pm

stark wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:00 am
Dear Roadster,

Win or lose it's been a fun ride so far, thanks for the memories since last June when you became known as the TMZ steam horse.
I've already made some cash off of you plus won some bragging rights amongst friends.
I think you're going to feel very comfortable when you load into the gate and look over and see your primary opponent just inside of you in barn mate GameWinner, you've got him to beat today, keep an eye on him as you go 'round.
And don't overlook that other guy down in stall 5, maybe he's the "other Baffert", but looking at the odds board it seems like that moniker just might be you and that's fine with me, a very successful betting angle over the years!
You will no doubt be one of the feature pieces for NBC this year, as they compare your epiglottis with with that of Omaha Beach. It's as they say....timing is everything and I think your schedule worked out perfect, a horse's best effort often comes in their 3rd race off a layoff.
I think you're going to float over the surface at Churchill after prepping in the depths of SantaAnita. The racing and the workouts have given you a conditioning edge on your opponents. No sweat-no gain and it's paid off, you're stronger and better off because of it. Some announcer will tell the comparison of running on dry sand at the beach vs. running down by the edge of the water and how much easier it is like it'll be today for you.
I have a hunch that horseplayers across the country will enjoy seeing FloTheJock's picture on tomorrow morning's newspapers sitting atop you while holding the Kroger garland of roses , it'll be a good story and just what we need right now.
Enjoy the trip my friend, be safe!

Harvey.
or Amen. . . . . . . ;)

Good Luck!
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Blame
Posts: 103
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:12 am

Sat May 04, 2019 1:35 pm

Roadster is going to win the Derby. His current 10-1 odds may be the biggest steal in Derby history. I overlooked him for a long time because I hate Baffert, but Baffert was right about this horse. Watching him this week, he looks like a certain winner. Maximum Security looks like the runner up.
stark
Posts: 5353
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Sat May 04, 2019 7:22 pm

And now I'm betting the sun will come up tomorrow!

Life is good.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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