Belmont Stakes News & Notes - 2018

Kennedy
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Wed May 23, 2018 1:42 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Tessablue wrote:Audible and Vino Rosso are both working this Friday. Waiting three weeks to work between the Derby and Belmont is pretty standard for Pletcher, who is outstanding at preparing horses for this race.
But he can't get a horse to go the distance my friend.
Really? He's won the Belmont 3 times in the last 11 years and missed by a nose when Destin lost to Creator.

In the last 11 runnings he's had 8 horses hit the frame in the Belmont (3-4-1)

Not only is Pletcher not a negative, he might actually be THE top Belmont stakes trainer in the last decade.
Somnambulist

Wed May 23, 2018 1:51 pm

I was 10000% sarcastic. :)
Tessablue
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Wed May 23, 2018 1:56 pm

I think I can guarantee some sarcasm on Som's part there ;) (edit: see, this is why I should remember to look before posting) Pletcher has been spectacular in the Belmont lately, even with horses who aren't very good. I think Audible would be his best horse since Palace Malice, and we didn't know how good PM was at the time.
Somnambulist

Wed May 23, 2018 2:10 pm

Tessablue wrote:I think I can guarantee some sarcasm on Som's part there ;) (edit: see, this is why I should remember to look before posting) Pletcher has been spectacular in the Belmont lately, even with horses who aren't very good. I think Audible would be his best horse since Palace Malice, and we didn't know how good PM was at the time.
What I think is the most interesting part of this is I find that in stakes races, Pletcher horses really run to their odds. Several of his Belmont horses have gone off at higher odds and performed really well as long as I'm remembering correctly. I'm not really in the position to be checking charts to confirm right now so hopefully I'm not mis-speaking.
Tessablue
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Wed May 23, 2018 2:19 pm

Somnambulist wrote: What I think is the most interesting part of this is I find that in stakes races, Pletcher horses really run to their odds. Several of his Belmont horses have gone off at higher odds and performed really well as long as I'm remembering correctly. I'm not really in the position to be checking charts to confirm right now so hopefully I'm not mis-speaking.
Hadn't thought of that angle, but that's a great point and I think you're totally right. The horse who always stands out to me is Commissioner, and he went off at 28-1 (also, looking at his record, he had a really nice post-Belmont career that I'd completely forgotten). Dunkirk was about 5-1, Palace Malice 14-1, Destin 8-1. Tapwrit went off at around 5-1 after a middling effort in the Derby, so perhaps the secret is out at last (had also forgotten that Patch ran third last year). Probably his biggest miss was Materiality, but as I recall all of his horses did poorly that day and there were rumors of a barn virus or something.

I can check his total record when I have more time later, but I probably wouldn't consider Vino Rosso at all were it not for his trainer.
Last edited by Anonymous on Wed May 23, 2018 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Treve
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Wed May 23, 2018 2:23 pm

Pletcher is king at Belmont. And so is Tapit.
If he had a Tapit this year I'd say there's your winner :D
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
MySaladDays
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Wed May 23, 2018 2:52 pm

Thank goodness for parimutuel betting
MySaladDays
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Wed May 23, 2018 2:57 pm

Tessablue wrote:Audible and Vino Rosso are both working this Friday. Waiting three weeks to work between the Derby and Belmont is pretty standard for Pletcher, who is outstanding at preparing horses for this race.
Hey, don't get me wrong, I think 3-4 weeks of rest for horses getting Lasix is great. More trainers should do it.

Horses who don't run on Lasix in other places have much faster recuperation times.
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Squeaky
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Wed May 23, 2018 7:21 pm

My Boy Jack to skip Belmont Stakes, point for Belmont Derby instead on grass. Goal is Hadkell and/or Travers. Want a fresh horse for the summer/ fall big races.
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Sparrow Castle
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Wed May 23, 2018 7:56 pm

Squeaky wrote:My Boy Jack to skip Belmont Stakes, point for Belmont Derby instead on grass. Goal is Hadkell and/or Travers. Want a fresh horse for the summer/ fall big races.
Yep, the announcement's on Twitter.

DontTellMyWifeStable @DTMWStables
2h2 hours ago
Our team decided MY BOY JACK will skip the Belmont Stakes & point to the G1 Belmont Derby to hopefully set him up to run well in the G1 Haskell and G1 Travers. Jack is 100% sound but prefer a fresh horse for the summer and beyond @BigChiefRacing @westpointtbred @BradWeisbord
Tessablue
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Wed May 23, 2018 8:11 pm

Regarding Pletcher's record in the Belmont:

He is 21-3-5-3 total, 17-3-5-3 since 2006 for an on-the-board rate of 65%. His median finish since 2006 is 3rd, and the median odds of those horses were 8.4-1. I used 2006 as a cutoff because his first four horses in the race didn't do much and he has been consistently excellent in it since that year.

His record since 2006 with horses who "prepped" in the Derby is an absolutely ridiculous 9-2-4-1, with Materiality (last) and Revolutionary (5th) the only off-the-board performances. The median Derby finish of those horses was 6th. Horses who ran substantially better in the Belmont relative to the Derby include Patch (14th-3rd), Palace Malice (12th-1st), Stay Thirsty (12th-2nd), and Dunkirk (11th-2nd).

Basically, he's insanely good at this race.
Apollo
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Wed May 23, 2018 8:20 pm

Squeaky wrote:My Boy Jack to skip Belmont Stakes, point for Belmont Derby instead on grass. Goal is Hadkell and/or Travers. Want a fresh horse for the summer/ fall big races.
Disappointing. I wondered why nothing was being said of him, after being the fastest closer in the Derby.

Of course, that's generally a sucker focus for the Belmont. But whenever a Triple Crown is on the line I want as many opponents as possible and coming in waves at different points of the race, with tons of race riding from those jockeys.
BigDonOKC
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Wed May 23, 2018 10:15 pm

Apollo wrote:
Squeaky wrote:My Boy Jack to skip Belmont Stakes, point for Belmont Derby instead on grass. Goal is Hadkell and/or Travers. Want a fresh horse for the summer/ fall big races.
Disappointing. I wondered why nothing was being said of him, after being the fastest closer in the Derby.

Of course, that's generally a sucker focus for the Belmont. But whenever a Triple Crown is on the line I want as many opponents as possible and coming in waves at different points of the race, with tons of race riding from those jockeys.
will there is one of the owners 4 great horse out of the Belmont Audible is next may be.
MySaladDays
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Wed May 23, 2018 11:11 pm

speaking of Belmont horses, I keep track of many who ran in derby and belmont.

Matuszak, who Mott ran in the 2014 Belmont, is on his 48th start, at the age of 7.


His current entry is running very low level claiming race at Horsemen's Park in a $2,500 claimer. :(


You may remember Matuszak was eased in the stretch that year, with Mike Smith aboard.


I guess this is what happens if you don't run ITM.
Tessablue
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Fri May 25, 2018 11:01 am

According to the DRF (http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42686-audib ... w-possible), Audible will be "freshened for a summer campaign" and Noble Indy is now "possible." I guess the risk of a competitive race was just too great, but we're supposed to accept Quip 2.0 as a consolation prize or something.

Go Hofburg.
Somnambulist

Fri May 25, 2018 11:50 am

Tessablue wrote:According to the DRF (http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42686-audib ... w-possible), Audible will be "freshened for a summer campaign" and Noble Indy is now "possible." I guess the risk of a competitive race was just too great, but we're supposed to accept Quip 2.0 as a consolation prize or something.

Go Hofburg.
Kind of a gross taste to it, unless Audible is dealing with issues.
peeptoad
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Fri May 25, 2018 11:55 am

Tessablue wrote:According to the DRF (http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42686-audib ... w-possible), Audible will be "freshened for a summer campaign" and Noble Indy is now "possible." I guess the risk of a competitive race was just too great, but we're supposed to accept Quip 2.0 as a consolation prize or something.

Go Hofburg.
Elliott Walden, president and CEO of WinStar, said the decision not to run Audible had nothing to do with the fact that Justify, who shares common ownership with Audible, is attempting to win the Triple Crown.
...sure thing, Elliott.

In any case, Audible or no Audible and Justify still has to enter and race to win the thing. I'm sure there have been TC winners in the past whose job was made "easier" by a co-owned horse not running. Noble Indy should provide more pace if he does indeed run. He cut faster early fractions in the LA Derby than Quip has in any race thus far, though I may be mistaken about that since going on memory from the Derby pps.

Still wish Baffert would reconsider on Solomini. He just tabbed a bullet work at CD the other day, so if nothing else he seems ready to fire.
Tessablue
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Fri May 25, 2018 12:01 pm

Somnambulist wrote: Kind of a gross taste to it, unless Audible is dealing with issues.
According to this: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/s ... 644124002/ he's got a strain, but that's second-hand and I don't see why Pletcher/Walden wouldn't say it directly instead of "his energy level hasn't been the same." He must have been really sluggish this morning for them to cancel a work last minute...

All the posturing, the canceled work, the Noble Indy distraction... it just feels insulting. And no offense to Noble Indy, he's better than Quip, but Quip wasn't exactly ridden to win the Preakness and I'd be surprised if Noble Indy did anything but recapitulate his nonthreatening Derby. Although Repole owns him too, so maybe Repole wants him in for Vino Rosso? Who owns more of the horse? How does this distributed monopoly thing work exactly? Ugh.
Somnambulist

Fri May 25, 2018 12:05 pm

Like everything else in America, our hearts are just pawns for rich people.
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Curtis
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Fri May 25, 2018 12:43 pm

Audible never would have been competition for Justify in the classic sense, so if anything, the public is being protected. If they were 1-2 at the 1/8th pole with Justify on top, Audible would have only been ridden hard enough to maintain second. Really the only people being hurt by this is the conglomerate that owns them. Anyone that bet on Audible would have been SOL much like any Civil War buffs that follow racing four days a year and had money on Gettysburg a couple of years ago. It shouldn’t mean anything to Justify’s legacy, all Audible would have been is a saver.
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