Somnambulist wrote:With the quality of stock his owners buy and breed i don't think it's unconcievable.
Exactly. Along with the fact that the man is 48 and he's won 300 Group/Grade 1 races. With those stats alone I would wager that he will win a Derby. 2 years younger than TAP, 16 younger than Mott, 4 younger than Assmussen, 3 younger than Romans, 8 younger than Amoss, etc. Just because he's been around for a while it is easy to forget that he is has achieved so much and yet is younger than almost everyone you listed. He has quite a while and an infinite amount of firepower left with Coolmore to get another couple good horses in the gate for the Derby.
For what it's worth, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chad Brown, McLaughlin, etc. win Derbies too. Brown has a whole career ahead of him, and, like O'Brien, McLaughlin has another juggernaut supporting him.
If he never wins, feel free to log on in 30-40 years to tell me "told ya so"