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Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 10:19 am
by Somnambulist
luvsgeldings wrote:so justify's 'numbers' are going down with each race since the SA Derby. is this true? this knucklehead friend of my husband's keeps saying this. but I don't pay attention to the numbers thing. this guy bases all of his wagers on them. I don't get it. I know justify didn't win by a lot yesterday. I just go by what I see. you guys who understand the numbers probably know what this guys means though. I have no clue.

in any case, the horse looks great the day after. I am sure he will be ready to go for the Belmont.
The declining figures are correct. I don't know what the Sheets have right say about yesterday, though.

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 10:30 am
by CoronadosQuest
War Admiral wrote:
Ballerina wrote:Justify will win the Triple Crown. That's it. That's all I have to say.

I wish I could be that confident. I’m hoping he can do it but I’m worried that a horse that skipped the Preakness is going to come up and catch him near the finish as with Smarty Jones.
Yea, I figure a few people will send rabbits to gun for the lead to take down Justify like what almost happened in the Preakness.

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 10:35 am
by luvsgeldings
he isn't going to the lead in the Belmont. no way. he can sit off horses. I think they wanted him in front for the first two because of the weather situation. but I have a feeling their game plan will be totally different for the Belmont. and justify will be fine with it. smith will need to ride him smart, but the horse has the talent and the mind to handle it.

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 10:47 am
by CoronadosQuest
Take this for what it is worth to you. If you believe them or not, everybody has their own opinions.

Alicia Wincze Hughes
@BH_AHughes
1h1 hour ago
Baffert on how much Justify might have left in the tank for Belmont. "Mike said he could have won by more. He said pulling up when the horses came to him, he took off again. And he looks bright, he ate up everything. "

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 10:57 am
by Turul
Ballerina wrote:Justify will win the Triple Crown. That's it. That's all I have to say.
Yes, I fully agree.

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 11:01 am
by Horsebagger
CoronadosQuest wrote:Take this for what it is worth to you. If you believe them or not, everybody has their own opinions.

Alicia Wincze Hughes
@BH_AHughes
1h1 hour ago
Baffert on how much Justify might have left in the tank for Belmont. "Mike said he could have won by more. He said pulling up when the horses came to him, he took off again. And he looks bright, he ate up everything. "
"he got tired today"
-Mike Smith post race quote

"he was blowing today. You can tell he was in a fight"
-Bob Baffert post race quote


Bottom line in my handicapping mind......when he's winning despite his figures are going backwards, and he's showing fatigue, you aren't set up to move forward next start going further in 3 weeks. if he wins the Belmont, its likely going to be with his lowest lifetime figure. If anyone shows up better prepared for their top race on that day its hard to believe he wins. It isn't impossible, just unlikely. We'll see the Sheet #s in a day or two, but without seeing them at this point, I'd rather be betting Bravazo in the Belmont than him with my money.

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 11:11 am
by luvsgeldings
so baffert is 'saying' that is what mike said. or is that what baffert wanted mike to say. and now he is taking the 'liberty' of speaking for mike.

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 11:13 am
by luvsgeldings
because what smith said after the race, was that he was tired.... you are right, horsebagger.

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 11:19 am
by stark
I'm pretty sure that I read right here yesterday afternoon from those who have considerably more experience than others that....

1. "He was OFF right after the race"

2. "No way Baffert brings him out Sunday morning for the photog's"

3. "He'll be retired after one more race"

Well, I guess there's still some hope for the predictor of #3 but I can't find anywhere #1 or #2 can be confirmed by somebody on the backstretch?

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 11:36 am
by stark
Horsebagger wrote: "he got tired today"
-Mike Smith post race quote

"he was blowing today. You can tell he was in a fight"
-Bob Baffert post race quote

Bottom line in my handicapping mind......when he's winning despite his figures are going backwards, and he's showing fatigue, you aren't set up to move forward next start going further in 3 weeks. if he wins the Belmont, its likely going to be with his lowest lifetime figure. If anyone shows up better prepared for their top race on that day its hard to believe he wins. It isn't impossible, just unlikely. We'll see the Sheet #s in a day or two, but without seeing them at this point, I'd rather be betting Bravazo in the Belmont than him with my money.

1. What's wrong with getting tired, it's to be expected when a race shapes up like that for young horses. In fact, it's not at all unusual when two horses get in a speed duel, they both wind up getting beaten. The fact that Justify persevered is commendable.

2. Speaking of handicapping a future race, how do you deal with classic "bounces" a horse who regresses after a top? Isn't it true that they can also be predictable and that rebounding for a high quality horse happens more often than some expect? The fact that Justify bounced from a numbers perspective and still won is commendable.

3. Just like turf racing, I suspect that comparing unusual muddy courses with SA fast numbers is not an exact science and could be open to some criticism as I would also expect the number-makers from all systems had some consternation over night, no?

Do we know yet if Justify doesn't really care for mud and will actually run better on a dry fast track?

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 11:50 am
by Big Ten
Justify has run 60% of his career in the mud and has always looked the cleanest one after every win in the slop.

Today - "Justify is awesome! Best ever!"
Morning of June 10th - "Justify sucks! He's not worthy!"

That's the social media era we live in. Love/hate, praise/criticize, worship/distract.

Audible, Audible, Audible. There's your 2018 Belmont winner. Mark #4 and a back-to-back Belmont win for Todd Pletcher.

Justify will always be an awesome horse to me to matter what happens in Belmont. Get your four months rest, buddy. Then knock them all out on November 3rd.

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Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 11:54 am
by stark
Jay Privman
‏@DRFPrivman

Justify came out of Preakness well, will be on same schedule as American Pharoah in 2015 -- back to Churchill Downs today, train there 2+ weeks, then to Belmont week of race, all per Baffert

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 12:18 pm
by CoronadosQuest
Audible is also owned by the same connections as Justify so... we shall see how that goes for you.

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 12:23 pm
by stark
CoronadosQuest wrote:Audible is also owned by the same connections as Justify so... we shall see how that goes for you.
One man's opinion, LA Times writer John Cherwa......

But, the most interesting question is if the ownership group of WinStar Farm and China Horse Club, which owns both Justify and Audible, will run Audible in the Belmont Stakes off five weeks rest. Elliott Walden, the managing partner of the syndicate, smiled when I asked him that question.

“I knew somebody was going to ask me that,” he said. “No thoughts today, probably make a decision late in the week. We’ll see. I’m non-committal both ways.”

I’m hoping they do run him because if they don’t and Justify wins, then some will view it as a somewhat tainted Triple Crown because he didn’t face the best because of compromised ownership interest. Walden is a smart guy, let’s hope he chooses the right legacy.

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 12:27 pm
by CoronadosQuest
If Audible doesn't win and Justify does there will still be haters that say it was because Audible wasn't trying for the win and going for second place. I can't imagine WinStar/China/Starlight being too happy with themselves if they spoil their own Triple Crown victory.

Btw this is a great tweet
Matt Dinerman‏
Verified account
@3coltshandicap
5m5 minutes ago

Justify has not done one single thing wrong and some are still trying to come up with reasons why he’s not as good as most of us think.

“Haters will see you walk on water and say it’s because you can’t swim.”

You be you, Justify.

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 12:31 pm
by Treve
Well, if you want to play the karmic aspect of it I agree... in fact I'd go even further and say that if they choose not to run Audible, the racing gods will deny them on a whim, whereas if they do run Audible, as weirdly as it sounds, I think there'd be a higher chance of J getting his dues after that gruelling campaign.

Personally though I've said it before and I'll say it again - I'm sure as an owner, I'd rather lose to myself than lose to someone else.

Side note... what would happen if they were a coupled entry?

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 12:36 pm
by stark
CoronadosQuest wrote: Btw this is a great tweet

“Haters will see you walk on water and say it’s because you can’t swim.”
They didn't have twitter back in 1987 when LBJ was President!

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 12:48 pm
by Big Ten
I'll find it weird if Justify does lose to Audible, it's from the same ownership. Even if Audible doesn't make the Belmont, I still think Justify looks tired and vulnerable. Winning on just raw talent alone may not be good enough in three weeks.

I hope Mike Smith can bring the "Easy Goer" comparisons out of Justify because he would win in a laugher. Big, beautiful chestnut horse in those long turns, Justify might just love Big Sandy.

Going to be fun personally for me because I never experienced American Pharoah's Triple Crown in real time. Again, I wouldn't be so bummed if Justify lost though.
“I think it’s a little bit different,” Baffert said. “Before, we were always thinking we’re going to go there, and it’s going to be so difficult. Something always goes wrong. But I just feel with this horse, he’s so talented that something could go wrong and he’ll still win.”

Justify looked tired at the end of his fifth win in 90 days, which will lead many to assume he’s vulnerable going into the unique 1½-mile test at Belmont.

Baffert said that’s not necessarily the case. Even the best horses struggle to maintain their peak form race after race. Justify was not on his “A” game in the Preakness, and he was pushed by a rugged challenge from Derby runner-up Good Magic. It’s a testament to his talent that he won anyway.

“I think his next race will be really big,” Baffert said. “You can’t just come bring it all the time. This will set him up for the next one.”

The most intriguing story will center on third-place Derby finisher Audible, who ran as well as any horse down the stretch at Churchill Downs. Trainer Todd Pletcher has long succeeded bringing rested challengers to the Belmont Stakes, which he’s won three times. And that was the presumed path for Audible.

But Audible is owned by the same group that owns Justify. So it’s an open question whether they’ll throw such a formidable challenger at their potential Triple Crown winner.

Elliott Walden, president and CEO of both horses’ co-owner WinStar Farm, said the partnership will probably make a decision on Audible late this week.

“I’m noncommittal both ways,” he said Saturday night.

Baffert said he’s not thinking about potential challengers or about lessons he might have learned from American Pharoah or his previous three Triple Crown challengers who tried and failed.

“I think it’s a matter of the horse,” he said. “They all ran well, except War Emblem, who stumbled really badly. But all these horses are different. I think this guy’s just a superior horse.”


Baffert's Belmont record with TC on the line -
1997 - 2nd
1998 - 2nd
2002 - 8th
2015 - 1st

4-1-2-0

If Spectacular Bid couldn't do it...

1979 Belmont - Coastal
https://youtu.be/umZtcw1HeFU

I hope Justify shows us a different dimension with his running-style in the Belmont and comes from slightly off the pace. Then he can blow them all away like two big, beautiful chestnuts in Easy Goer and Point Given did.

1988 Belmont - Easy Goer
https://youtu.be/n2g0dME0NzE

2001 Belmont - Point Given
https://youtu.be/My1oNAoX55I

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 1:02 pm
by carole
I don't think people are doubting Justify's ability but he looked tired and post race comments pointed to him being tired. I think people are just concerned that his fatigue will surpass his talent and ability on Belmont day which I personally think is quite reasonable.

Re: Justify

Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 1:21 pm
by stark
stark wrote:I'm pretty sure that I read right here yesterday afternoon from those who have considerably more experience than others that....

1. "He was OFF right after the race"

2. "No way Baffert brings him out Sunday morning for the photog's"

3. "He'll be retired after one more race"

Well, I guess there's still some hope for the predictor of #3 but I can't find anywhere #1 or #2 can be confirmed by somebody on the backstretch?
Crickets?

https://twitter.com/BloodHorse/status/9 ... 7222331392

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