Justify

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Katewerk
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:27 pm

stark wrote:Andy does Bob...

https://twitter.com/nyraATBpod/status/1 ... 5135804417

One of the best interviews in any sport I've heard in a very long time, well done!
Thanks for that!
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CoronadosQuest
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:58 pm

stark wrote:Andy does Bob...

https://twitter.com/nyraATBpod/status/1 ... 5135804417

One of the best interviews in any sport I've heard in a very long time, well done!
That was a great interview! Thanks! I enjoyed listening to it :)
luvsgeldings
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:59 pm

did anyone else watch justify gallop on the Belmont track this morning? not sure if its just me, but it looked like he hopped a few times on the backstretch and around the home turn - like he was switching leads or something but I could not quite tell for sure - he did it again on the front stretch as he was getting closer to the clubhouse turn - maybe he was just playing around - curious what anyone else thinks - and really cannot wait to hear what impression he made on Mig. baff seemed happy though.
BaroqueAgain1
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:36 pm

I think I heard that he was playing around when he changed leads...as in, giving a little buck.
Must be interesting for an exercise rider when your 1,300 lb. TB decides he's feeling SO good that he throw some bucks your way. :shock:
MySaladDays
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:50 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:I think I heard that he was playing around when he changed leads...as in, giving a little buck.
Must be interesting for an exercise rider when your 1,300 lb. TB decides he's feeling SO good that he throw some bucks your way. :shock:
who was the horse who did that in ther preakness post parade, was it J or Bravazo?

I'm sorry, but when a horse has a rider on his back and is under tack, I don't consider that a good sign, esp. if they don't do it "all the time".

Lani was always Lani, and Mendelssohn bucked, but that was their *normal* behavior. When horses do things, esp. under tack, that are not normal for them, I worry.
MySaladDays
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:50 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:I think I heard that he was playing around when he changed leads...as in, giving a little buck.
Must be interesting for an exercise rider when your 1,300 lb. TB decides he's feeling SO good that he throw some bucks your way. :shock:
who was the horse who did that in ther preakness post parade, was it J or Bravazo?

I'm sorry, but when a horse has a rider on his back and is under tack, I don't consider that a good sign, esp. if they don't do it "all the time".

Lani was always Lani, and Mendelssohn bucked, but that was their *normal* behavior. When horses do things, esp. under tack, that are not normal for them, I worry.
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CoronadosQuest
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:01 pm

He was definitely playing around at the start of his gallop which I think shows that he is feeling good and not tired. He wasn't wearing his ear plugs this morning so he got to hear the whole commotion going on at the track and the other horses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4YGMHcqicQ around the 2 min mark. He has done it a few times in his gallops when he starts. I think he is just happy to be galloping. He then gets right down to business.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t33VM9nCHjI This was his work before the Derby... he did the same thing

This is what Migliore thought

https://twitter.com/WatchXBTV/status/10 ... 6382322688

Some quote from the video regarding Justify

His interview with Mike Smith

https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/mike ... n-hopeful/
luvsgeldings
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:55 pm

CQ.... thanks for posting that link with Mig - I had missed that today - but I appreciated the chance to view it - thanks again!
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Big Ten
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:01 pm

I considered Bravazo one of the Top 3 worst horses in the Kentucky Derby. I didn't like him in the Preakness either. Every single time, he has outrun his odds and my expectations of him. A 6th and a 2nd.

Could he be leg weary? Remember Charismatic running 7x in 1999 before winning the Derby? It's Lukas. Guy who knows how to run them to the ground but someone we can't disrespect who dominated the TC races in the mid-90's.

Watch Keen Ice closing...
2015 Haskell - American Pharoah

Then nailed AP at 15-1...
2015 Travers - Keen Ice

One of my all-time favorite races from Slew...
1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup

^ Life's Hope was Affirmed's rabbit and all three ran in a tandem. In this Belmont, Baffert has Restoring Hope. It doesn't make any sense to me why he's there? Justify's own rabbit might soften him up.

The Belmont Stakes is becoming a graveyard for favorites for the last two decades now.

2004 Belmont - Birdstone

^ The Belmont Stakes we all remembered. The day they announced Ronald Reagan's death. Look at the fast internal splits. Once you saw 1:11 3/5 and 1:35 2/5, Smarty was going to be in trouble. Birdstone at 37-1 was training beautifully that time. Could Noble Indy be our Birdstone this year?

Honestly, the one Belmont that hurt me the most was actually Silver Charm's defeat and that's knowing Touch Gold was the most dangerous. Real Quiet wasn't as depressing because he should've been DQ'd had he won the photo. And I don't root for Kent D anyway.

California Chrome aside since he doesn't qualify yet, Silver Charm is the only horse that failed winning the TC the last 20 years that made the HOF. I remember the gasp in the racetrack when Silver Charm lost. It felt like Thanos stabbing Tony Stark in the stomach in Infinity War. Smarty was just as bad, but I wasn't into the Smarty party.

Empire Maker won from the #1 post and it was in the slop... (Mike Smith, take notes)

2003 Belmont Stakes - Empire Maker

Image

I can't believe Justify is taller than Man o' War, Secretariat, and Easy Goer. But the real Big Red was probably Phar Lap. Always depresses me when I read about him.

I can see Justify finishing anywhere between 1st through 4th if he doesn't breakdown or stumble really bad.

The ones I saw (minus 1979, 1981, 1987, 1989)...

Silver Charm - 2nd
Real Quiet - 2nd
Charismatic - 3rd
War Emblem - 7th
Funny Cide - 3rd
Smarty Jones - 2nd
Big Brown - DNF
I'll Have Another - DNS
California Chrome - 4th
American Pharoah - 1st

1 win. 8 losses. 1 no contest.

9-1-3-2

Ranking the horses who failed sweeping the Belmont between 1979-2014 (minus IHA).

HoFers -
Spectacular Bid
California Chrome
Sunday Silence
Alysheba
Silver Charm

Big Brown
Smarty Jones
Real Quiet
Funny Cide
War Emblem
Pleasant Colony
Charismatic

I feel Justify's reminds me of Big Brown. Prior to the Derby, it was mostly a Big Brown vibe because of his lack of experience. That's not good news since he failed winning Belmont.

There's also a part of me that thinks Justify is as good as Pharoah in raw talent and he's California's own Easy Goer. Good to hear if you're an optimist.

If you don't think Justify is as good as Sunday Silence and Alysheba at the same stage, then he probably doesn't win the TC.

Is Justify more like Majestic Prince than Easy Goer? A handsome chestnut who raced in California. First horse to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness while undefeated. Then lost to Arts and Letters in Belmont and never raced again.

Majestic Prince

1969 Belmont Stakes - Arts and Letters

Image

Image
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Ridan_Remembered
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:09 pm

luvsgeldings wrote:did anyone else watch justify gallop on the Belmont track this morning? not sure if its just me, but it looked like he hopped a few times on the backstretch and around the home turn - like he was switching leads or something but I could not quite tell for sure - he did it again on the front stretch as he was getting closer to the clubhouse turn - maybe he was just playing around - curious what anyone else thinks - and really cannot wait to hear what impression he made on Mig. baff seemed happy though.
I like the horse, Justify, even though I can't root for any Baffert horse because...Baffert. So I'm pretty objective watching that video. The small head toss/hop was meaningless. The horse traveled strongly, rider had a strong hold all the way until they were approaching the clubhouse turn. About then the horse seemed to either get a little tired or just lose interest. For the first time his ears weren't pricked and he just seemed less on the bit. But he went around the turn ok, slowed when asked and didn't seem winded or overly warm. Just an overall good gallop. He went quick for a gallop and looked good doing it.
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:39 am

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... 2018_track#

Justify floated around the Belmont track. Gee, he looks good.
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Katewerk
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:53 am

Today's spin. Starts at the 16min mark.

https://www.facebook.com/thenyra/videos ... 563036091/
stark
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:38 am

Said Baffert: "It's up to him now. If he's great, he'll do it."
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Big Ten
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:15 pm

Justify Attempts to Earn Triple Crown at Belmont With Less Narrative, Faded Anticipation

American Pharaoh ended the great Triple Crown drought that haunted horse racing for decades. Now that Justify has a chance to win a Triple Crown so soon afterward, does it feel less exciting?

TIM LAYDEN

Friday June 8th, 2018

ELMONT, New York – Let’s get this out of the way: Yes, it’s different at Belmont Park this week. A three-year-old chestnut colt named Justify can win thoroughbred racing’s 13th Triple Crown with a victory in Saturday’s 150th running of the Belmont Stakes, and there is nothing in the sport that can match the emotional energy of a Belmont with history in the balance. It is the pinnacle of the game. Thirty-five times since 1918, a three-year-old has arrived in New York with a chance to join one of the most exclusive clubs in any sport (It’s true the Triple Crown wasn’t named until after Sir Barton won the first in 1919, but he’s long been considered the initial winner) and the place crackles with anticipation every time. But this time, something is missing.

The desperation.
More exciting to have an "attempt" winning the Triple Crown than none at all which happened during the previous two years that made the Belmont into a snoozefest. There has been 13 attempts since Affirmed and only 1 winner. It's never easy no matter how many TC attempts we get. That's why the luster from its elusiveness still remains for me. The "hunger" might be lost but the accomplishment will never be diminished.

Speaking of hunger, right now, my heart is broken because I found out Anthony Bourdain committed suicide. He, Andrew Zimmern, and Samantha Brown taught me adventure. So my mood this morning isn't cheery. Plus, the Cavaliers will probably get swept tonight which adds more bad news for me. So if Justify does lose tomorrow, well, it probably won't sting so bad knowing sports is just a game. A weekend I'll try to forget soon after.

RIP Anthony Bourdain

I hope Andrew and Sam do a special episode in honor of their former colleague from The Travel Channel. Read their Twitter feeds and both are so heartbroken. Zimmern has a similar past like Bourdain with drug addiction. Don't leave us now, Andrew. Favorite No Reservations episode is still Hong Kong. So many damn suicides as of late. We lost Robin Williams, Chris Cornell, Chester Bennington, Kate Spade, and Anthony Bourdain from it.

Justify reminds me of Big Brown the most who also broke from the #1 hole in Belmont. We already know what happened a decade ago. I just have a sinking feeling tomorrow like when they announced Ronald Reagan died hours before Smarty Jones ran the Belmont. Only thing we can do now is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

2008 Belmont Stakes - Da' Tara

^At least tomorrow won't be as hot like a decade ago. The weather favors Justify with highs of only 79 degrees instead of 93.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:56 pm

'Ten, I wish you wouldn't just post a whole article from another source. Yes, you put up a link but, if the whole article is here, there's a good chance that readers won't click on that link and go to the original article.
(BTW, it's a Sports Illustrated piece with some nice photos, so it's worth a look.)
Most sites depend on income from advertisers. If fewer people click on the site to read the articles because someone has copied the piece and posted it elsewhere, that means fewer viewers for ads on the site. Fewer eyes on ads could mean the advertisers taking their business elsewhere.
If that isn't clear to you - Every time you copy an entire article and paste it here, you may be hurting the original site and the author who did all the work to create the piece you just copied. Without naming the author. :roll:
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:05 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:'Ten, I wish you wouldn't just post a whole article from another source. Yes, you put up a link but, if the whole article is here, there's a good chance that readers won't click on that link and go to the original article.
(BTW, it's a Sports Illustrated piece with some nice photos, so it's worth a look.)
Most sites depend on income from advertisers. If fewer people click on the site to read the articles because someone has copied the piece and posted it elsewhere, that means fewer viewers for ads on the site. Fewer eyes on ads could mean the advertisers taking their business elsewhere.
If that isn't clear to you - Every time you copy an entire article and paste it here, you may be hurting the original site and the author who did all the work to create the piece you just copied. Without naming the author. :roll:
I don't think BT pays any attention to what people write in response to what he writes. It's quite unnerving to see so much band width taken up by one person's ramblings.

BT - do you honestly think people read the volumes of material that you post??? Give it a rest.
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Treve
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:39 pm

I'm starting to get butterflies for tomorrow.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Kurenai
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:56 pm

@Big Ten: As others have pointed out: Please don't post entire articles here, just a quote and link to it. Otherwise it's a copyright violation. I edited your posting.
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Diver52
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:14 pm

Is there a streaming site for the Belmont? Three years ago I was watching AP on a herky jerky feed that made me nuts. ",He's into the stretch with a two length lead!" Freeze! "At the eighth pole, it's". FREEZE ! it better than nothing. Thanks.
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
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Big Ten
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:24 pm

If Saratoga is known as the "Graveyard of Champions", the Belmont Stakes is becoming the "Graveyard of Favorites." The best horse doesn't win Belmont, remember? Only the freshest one.

1997 - Touch Gold
1998 - Victory Gallop
1999 - Lemon Drop Kid
2002 - Sarava
2003 - Empire Maker
2004 - Birdstone
2008 - Da' Tara
2014 - Tonalist

Only Touch Gold, Victory Gallop, and Empire Maker paid under $10 for the win. Tonalist at 9-1 was only a mild upset. The rest were all double-digit bombs.

I don't see a spoiler here that gives me the same confidence as Touch Gold, Victory Gallop, or Empire Maker if the likely 2nd betting choice is Hofburg who has never won a stakes race. So even if I like Vino Rosso alot, it's still a huge gamble on him. He doesn't give me the same level of confidence as Touch Gold, Victory Gallop, or Empire Maker.

My 2018 Kentucky Derby Final Rankings
1. Justify

2. Mendelssohn
3. Bolt d'Oro
4. Audible
5. My Boy Jack
6. Vino Rosso
7. Hofburg

8. Magnum Moon
9. Good Magic
10. Noble Indy
11. Lone Sailor
12. Flameaway
13. Enticed
14. Solomini
15. Instilled Regard
16. Promises Fulfilled
17. Free Drop Billy
18. Bravazo

19. Firenze Fire
20. Combatant

Again, my only outliers that I noticed is where Mendelssohn and Bravazo actually finished. Maybe My Boy Jack too. So my #6, #7, #10, #17, and #18-ranked Derby horses all have a shot to be Top 3 in the third leg.

I think there's a generation of bettors who don't know who the hell D. Wayne Lukas is? If this was 20 years ago in DWL's heyday, Bravazo would be the 2nd choice. Bravazo is the only horse who continues to outrun his odds and my expectations of him.

It would feel too weird for me to root AGAINST Justify after he has won me money from his last three starts. It's like betting Affirmed since the SA Derby. And then by Belmont, I decide to root for Alydar! That's what it feels like picking Pletcher over Baffert.

If Justify doesn't win, GO BRAVAZO!

KY Derby - 6th (higher than Birdstone's 8th)
Preakness - 2nd (like Victory Gallop)
Belmont - 1st? (like Birdstone & VG?)

We'll finally see what this strategy is all about having Restoring Hope there tomorrow. Does he go to the lead and then have Justify pulled back and then follow him on the outside? Keep the pace honest to have some separation from the closers?

I just feel slimy picking Lukas' former assistant and East Coast rival to Baffert as the one to spoil Bob's Triple Crown bid. Again, I hope I'm wrong and Pletcher doesn't win. Justify can uplift me if he wins. And if Baffert doesn't win, then I would rather watch D. Wayne Lukas be the one to beat him.

Image
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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