Justify

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Treve
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:18 pm

Katewerk wrote:
Squeaky wrote:So sorry- did not mean to post sensitive information. Read this on a racing site. Will delete my post.
No, I wasn't blaming you! I was talking about the original source of the information.
I didn't see your post but it was included in the Blood-horse article about Justify's arrival.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Ballerina
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:43 pm

Barbara D. Livingston

Almost looks like they're bowing to the king, doesn't it. Triple Crown contender JUSTIFY, with Bob Baffert, upon his arrival to Belmont today.

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Della
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:00 pm

Ballerina wrote:Barbara D. Livingston

Almost looks like they're bowing to the king, doesn't it. Triple Crown contender JUSTIFY, with Bob Baffert, upon his arrival to Belmont today.

Image

Wonder why only one front leg wrap. Weird.
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Treve
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:07 pm

He has all four in the photo of him coming off the van. I'd imagine they started undoing them then walked him to gradually increase circulation and it's possible his right front (can't see his right hind) needed a bit more support for a few minutes?
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Big Ten
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:06 am

After reading that stuff below, I meant Vino Rosso which has JV. Not Noble Indy with JC. Belmont is Pletcher's best TC jewel to win. I didn't realize Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom doesn't get released until June 22. Grace Randolph got to see it way in advance.

Man, these NBA Finals are depressing me. Waiting for the FIFA World Cup and I don't even watch soccer. My NBA bets went down the toilet. I tried covering every angle and every losing scenario happened. Damn, Warriors! My bad luck with basketball.

Good luck to Justify. I guess he isn't as fan friendly as American Pharoah. Doesn't bother me. My boy, Rock Hard Ten, wasn't all that nice either. He bites too. When I eventually petted him and fed him carrots, he was cool. Took a photo with him and tried to nip my shirt.

Big Ten would eventually win four more races for me after that meeting. Gave me that look in the eye in the saddling area like he recognized me and won each race right after. Seattle Slew wasn't a kind horse either but I liked the bulldog in him.

With all my bad luck with my NBA bets, it's one of the reasons why I'm not betting the Belmont. I might jinx Justify and there's really no money to be made even if did I like him. Then what? Bank on some 7-1? There's 4-5 other horses that look equal in talent.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs ... Stakes_123
44% of Belmont Stakes winners since 2000 raced mid-pack in the initial stages of the race, either between horses or in the clear on the outside. Only three took the rail trip. They started gearing up right around the 3/8 pole and were in full running mode by the time they hit 1 ¼ miles.
The Belmont Stakes is a very lucrative betting opportunity, as only five winners paid single digits to win. The lowest win payout was $3.50 when American Pharoah became our first Triple Crown hero in 37 years.

Normally, favorites don’t fare well in the Belmont Stakes. Only three post time top choices in 18 years won and only six favorites hit the board. In 2002, Sarava paid a whopping $142.50 to his backers. Not counting that return, the average winning return over sixteen years was $27.10.  The lowest trifecta was $67.50 in a six-horse field in 2003.
Only four jockeys since 2000 who won the Belmont Stakes did so in their first attempt in the race. Jeremy Rose, Fernando Jara, Alan Garcia and Jose Valdivia, Jr. timed it perfectly to win the trophy. Of those, only Rose had not ridden at the Big Sandy before the Belmont Stakes, although he did have mounts earlier in the day to become familiar with the track layout. 

Three of this year’s jockeys normally don’t ride at Belmont Park:

Florent Geroux, Restoring Hope’s jock, calls Kentucky home. He’s had a mount in the last two editions of the Belmont Stakes, but placed 12th and 11th, respectively.

Ricardo Santana, Jr. is also based in the midwest. He’s ridden at Belmont Park a handful of times over the years, but Tenfold will be his first Belmont Stakes mount.

Kyle Frey hangs his helmet in the west. He’ll have his first trip around the Belmont oval and his first mount in a Grade 1 race with Blended Citizen.

It rarely rains on Belmont Stakes day. Since 2000, the third Triple Crown jewel has just twice run over a wet track. Before that, we have to go back to 1986 to find another. 

Both times this century, speed held over a muddy surface. The winners, Empire Maker and Ruler On Ice, raced on the lead or pressed the early pace. That's good news for Justify, since he’ll be bringing his personal raincloud with him. There’s an increasing chance of rain this Saturday.

Final Takeaways

So, what can we learn from this decade’s Belmont Stakes? The winner generally hovers in fifth place early and moves up around the turn. He’s usually in front after 1 1/4 miles. His jockey is familiar with the track and the Belmont Stakes isn’t his first rodeo.

This century, the Belmont Stakes winner usually raced in the Kentucky Derby and had a rough trip, finishing off the board. Good news for Hofburg, Vino Rosso and Free Drop Billy.  

Belmont winners that didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby won or placed in their Belmont prep, which bodes well for Blended Citizen, the Peter Pan Stakes hero.

Winners of the Preakness generally hit the board in the Belmont Stakes.  Half of the Preakness runners-up also finished in the money in the Belmont. That’s good news for Bravazo. Toss the horses that finished third in the Preakness and contested the Belmont. None hit the board, although two of eight finished fourth. Keep that in mind for Tenfold.

The payout is often generous, and a win bet rarely pays less than $4, making the Belmont an excellent handicapping race, especially for the exotics.

Now that you know what to look for, finding the 2018 Belmont Stakes winner should be easy...right?


Let's toss Justify for the win since favorites rarely win it anyway. Belmont is easily the most lucrative of the three. All those angles is pointing to four horses -

Hofburg
Vino Rosso
Bravazo
Free Drop Billy


^ One of those four could be the one to upset Justify this Saturday. Tenfold and Blended Citizen have jockeys unfamiliar with Big Sandy. Third-place Preakness finishers don't do well in Belmont, so no thanks to Tenfold.

No heart pick into it, my new Belmont rankings -

1. Hofburg
2. Vino Rosso

3. Justify
4. Bravazo

5. Free Drop Billy
6. Tenfold
7. Blended Citizen

You could flip flop 1 & 2 and 3 & 4. My initial feelings after Justify won the Preakness was he's going to finish 4th in the Belmont like California Chrome did. Just fade to 3rd or 4th. I still don’t understand Restoring Hope being there. With how depressing the Cavaliers looking to get swept by the Warriors this Friday, watching Justify lose the following day won't be all that depressing since no money was on the line.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Ballerina
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:11 am

In the name of God, BT, where do you find the time to write these epistles?
BaroqueAgain1
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:57 am

It probably helps that much of the content is stuff he's copied & pasted from elsewhere.
At least it appears he posted the link to the original article.
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Ballerina
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:51 am

Justify arrives at Belmont - "Let's Get It On"

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... _get_it_on#
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Katewerk
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:02 am

https://www.facebook.com/thenyra/videos ... 207961091/

Livestream from Belmont, he just came off the track.
stark
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:09 am

Impressive first morning at Belmont Park for Triple Crown bidder Justify, who galloped with authority
Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Justify sure looked good when galloping with enthusiasm and authority on Thursday morning at Belmont Park in the first of two gallops he will have prior to his bid for a Triple Crown sweep in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday here at Belmont Park.

Justify came out on the track shortly after a renovation break at 8:45 a.m. and galloped about 1 3/8 miles around the oval. He was particularly strong coming through the stretch. That, plus the great condition of his coat, would indicate he's coming into this race as well as could be hoped.

"He looked good around there," said trainer Bob Baffert, who broke into a wide grin after Justify galloped past him. "I'll sleep better tonight."

Baffert said Justify galloped a bit stronger than he might have expected, but believed much of that had to do with him being fresh. He worked Monday at Churchill Downs, walked Tuesday, then flew from Kentucky on Wednesday, so he hadn't done much since the work.

Baffert also said it appeared Justify got his competitive juices going when he heard other horses when comign through the lane. Justify often trains with ear plugs, but did not this morning. He will have them in on Friday now.

Justify also has ear plugs when being saddled and in the post parade for races, but they are removed before the race starts.

As for his constitution, it's hard to fault how Justify appears in the flesh.

"He's doing really well. He just gets stronger," Baffert said. "He's a good doer, a good eater."

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42950-impre ... -authority
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Big Ten
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:20 pm

I mistaken Free Drop Billy for My Boy Jack. I ranked FDB among my Top 5 worst in the Derby while moved up MBJ that week.

Thinking it through last night and this morning, the spoilers will come from Pletcher or Lukas.

Vino Rosso
Noble Indy (live longshot)
Bravazo


Hofburg (overbet thanks to his sire)
Tenfold

If Justify gets 1:35-1:36 for the mile split, he's fried. He will run off the board. If he gets 1:37, he might still get caught. If he gets closer to 1:38 like American Pharoah's 1:37.99, he could be long gone and will be our 13th Triple Crown winner.

I'll probably have some butterflies in my stomach once they reach post even though I have no money on the line. I just badly want to watch Justify win and celebrate. But I don't know anymore. If it's time to beat the big favorite, it's this time in Belmont.

I still like Justify's chances though especially with the possible rain. That should be used to his advantage. Be the cleanest-looking horse at the end in every leg.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:31 pm

Big Ten wrote:I mistaken Free Drop Billy for My Boy Jack. I ranked FDB among my Top 5 worst in the Derby while moved up MBJ that week.

Thinking it through last night and this morning, the spoilers will come from Pletcher or Lukas.

Vino Rosso
Noble Indy (live longshot)
Bravazo


Hofburg (overbet thanks to his sire)
Tenfold

If Justify gets 1:35-1:36 for the mile split, he's fried. He will run off the board. If he gets 1:37, he might still get caught. If he gets closer to 1:38 like American Pharoah's 1:37.99, he could be long gone and will be our 13th Triple Crown winner.

I'll probably have some butterflies in my stomach once they reach post even though I have no money on the line. I just badly want to watch Justify win and celebrate. But I don't know anymore. If it's time to beat the big favorite, it's this time in Belmont.

I still like Justify's chances though especially with the possible rain. That should be used to his advantage. Be the cleanest-looking horse at the end in every leg.
Do you know if there is a teller at Santa Anita who will let me bet like this....IF there's a speed duel, I'll take_____ or IF the track is favoring closers I'll take___________ etc.

Maybe there's an on-line ADW that'll take IF bets like that? TVG, Xpressbet, Twinspires, or do I have to go offshore and thru Lewiston Maine?

While I enjoy reading who people like and are picking to win with mythical bankrolls here, the qualifiers that all start with IF don't serve much purpose, at least for me.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Big Ten
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:22 pm

Chestnut stallion's son is going to upset this big chestnut horse? I was never a fan of Scat Daddy and didn't even consider him in my Top 3 in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. No Audible, no problemo for Todd Pletcher.

Vino Rosso could be the main spoiler while Justify distractors are looking at Hofburg, Tenfold (Curlin/Asmussen), Bravazo, and Blended Citizen. Pletcher has won the Belmont three times vs Baffert's two. It almost feels right that Pletcher upsets Baffert when you consider Audible is out and nearly got 2nd in the Derby.

Vino Rosso/Noble Indy to pull off the shocker. Knowing Justify has that BITE in him, I hope he goes down swinging. Every second matters. Conserve enough left for the frantic finish. This race could be decided by centimeters. Mike Smith better not let Justify run too loosey goosey or it's the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup all over again. He won with Palace Malice in 2013, so Big Money Mike knows what it takes with the pace and is familiar with the NY circuit he started with.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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CoronadosQuest
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:12 pm

Sarah K Andrew
@SarahKAndrew
2h2 hours ago

"He was just getting over the track really well," Bob Baffert said of #Justify this morning. "He couldn't have looked any better coming around there. He looks like a horse that is flourishing." Catch up with daily #BelmontStakes150 reports by @SteveSherackTDN in @theTDN

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Ballerina
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:47 pm

I don't care - I still love him - JUSTIFY that is

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/07/spor ... soros.html
BaroqueAgain1
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:49 pm

Thanks for posting those photos, CQ. He sure looks healthy and happy, FWIW. ;)
stark
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:51 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Thanks for posting those photos, CQ. He sure looks healthy and happy, FWIW. ;)

For those of us that admittedly don't know, can you please explain which of those pictures he looks happy in and why?

thanks.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BaroqueAgain1
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:41 pm

In the first photo, he has his head up and ears pricked. Looks alert, but not upset. The photo appears to have been taken as he was heading to the track and he gives the appearance of a horse who is interested in what's happening. There is also no tension in the lead between Justify and Jimmy&Sunny, so he is being cooperative as he's being ponied.
From everything I've read, this is a colt who likes getting out on the track...and who likes to run fast. ;)
The body language all adds up to a pretty happy horse to my admittedly amateur eyes...but who knows what he's actually thinking. :lol:
stark
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:12 pm

Thanks
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:59 pm

Andy does Bob...

https://twitter.com/nyraATBpod/status/1 ... 5135804417

One of the best interviews in any sport I've heard in a very long time, well done!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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