Justify

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CoronadosQuest
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Tue May 29, 2018 1:50 pm

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Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Justify breezed a half-mile on May 29 at Churchill Downs in preparation for the June 9 Belmont Stakes. (Eclipse Sportswire)
stark
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Tue May 29, 2018 1:55 pm

For those that don't get the DRF stories...

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Triple Crown hopeful Justify went a quick half-mile Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs in his first breeze since his Preakness Stakes victory as the superstar colt continues to please his Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert.

Amid a light rain and with Martin Garcia in from California to ride him, Justify went a half-mile in 46.80 seconds before going out five furlongs in 59.60, according to Churchill clocker John Nichols.

Afterward, Baffert was all smiles.

“It was a little breeze,” he said. “I mean, he’s a great horse. He was in hand. I knew [Monday], the way he was, he was ready to do something. This week with the rain coming, we’re not going to be doing too much with him. So I just wanted to make sure we got a little air into him.”

Baffert essentially is using the same schedule at Churchill that he employed three years ago between the Preakness and Belmont Stakes with American Pharoah, the eventual Triple Crown winner. Baffert was scheduled to return to his California home Tuesday, then return this coming weekend prior to overseeing a final pre-Belmont breeze, probably Monday.

Justify, undefeated in five career starts, will be heavily favored in the final leg of the June 9 Belmont when he tries to become just the second horse to sweep the Triple Crown while still unbeaten, following Seattle Slew in 1977. Justify is scheduled to be flown June 6 to New York.

Baffert said that Justify, owned by a four-way partnership headed by WinStar Farm, shows no signs of a letdown since he captured the May 19 Preakness by a measured half-length over Bravazo.

“He’s just a magnificent specimen of a horse,” said Baffert. “I’ve got to pinch myself because I’ve had all these great horses right in a row. I’m just glad that [WinStar president] Elliott Walden and WinStar, they sent me this horse. Somebody’s looking out for me.”

The Tuesday work went exactly to plan. At 7:28 a.m., stepping onto a freshly harrowed track rendered a tad muddy by the rain, Justify jogged clockwise over to the wire before turning around for the work. Around the clubhouse turn and into the backstretch, Garcia had Justify in a smooth rhythm while angling closer to the rail at about the five-furlong pole, and the colt was in full flight when passing the half-mile pole. Splits from Nichols were 12, 23.60, and 35.20. Baffert watched from the frontside.

“The track was nice and had some bounce to it,” said Baffert. “He just went around there really nice."

Baffert was in touch with Garcia by radio during the work.

"I basically didn’t say anything to Martin during the work," Baffert said. "He had him down in a nice little groove. I was surprised at how fast the time was because of how easy he was doing it.

“It’s what you want to see. I was hoping for that kind of work – like American Pharoah, he came back here, he looked like that. I wish the race was this week, but you know, we’ve got another week to go. I think we’re in great shape. I feel pretty strong that he’s not going backward on us. He’s moving forward. You can see his weight, the way he’s held his weight – he’s a big, massive horse. That’s about it.”

Earlier Tuesday morning, Baffert also oversaw a seven-furlong breeze by Restoring Hope, who also is likely for the Belmont. With Florent Geroux up, Restoring Hope went in 1:26 with a one-mile out time of 1:40.20.

The Baffert horses are among five Belmont prospects based at Churchill, with the others being Bravazo, Tenfold, and Free Drop Billy. Two equine charters – one Tuesday, one Wednesday – will transport the Kentucky horses to New York next week.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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CoronadosQuest
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Tue May 29, 2018 1:57 pm

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WinStar Farm
@WinStarFarm
44m44 minutes ago

#JUSTIFY worked 4F in :46.80 today at @ChurchillDowns and looked ready to take flight! #OneMore
Somnambulist

Tue May 29, 2018 2:10 pm

The only thing concerning me is that Baffert is wishing the race was this week. But we shall see.
stark
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Tue May 29, 2018 2:13 pm

Somnambulist wrote:The only thing concerning me is that Baffert is wishing the race was this week. But we shall see.
He often times makes comments when he's ready to roll like "I'll just have to keep him in bubble wrap for another week"
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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CoronadosQuest
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Tue May 29, 2018 5:51 pm

Time for some Justify photo spam :D

Frances J Karon
@francesjkaron
42s43 seconds ago
Justify, with Martin Garcia up, at Churchill this morning: waiting with Sunny (and Jimmy Barnes) at the gap, on the gallop-out following his breeze, and heading back to the barn. It rained. Of course.

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CoronadosQuest
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Tue May 29, 2018 6:35 pm

And a 2 year old Justify, if people want to see what he looked like last year :)

Frances J Karon
@francesjkaron
3m3 minutes ago
Justify at Keeneland last September, when he was in pre-training with @BrissetRodolphe and before he'd even had his first official breeze.

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Sparrow Castle
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Tue May 29, 2018 10:48 pm

Darin Zoccali @atTheTrack7
Pretty interesting side by side look at Justify and American Pharoah’s pre-Belmont workouts. Pharoah went a furlong more on the gallop out. #TripleCrown #Justify #BelmontStakes150
https://twitter.com/atTheTrack7/status/ ... 0380336128
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Big Ten
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Wed May 30, 2018 12:19 am

Was watching the Preakness (NBC) on YouTube to catch the frame when Justify jumped the track. It's at the 0:34 frame. You need to pause it over and over to see it.

I'm starting to like his chances more for Belmont. No Audible. Jumping the track probably cost him a few strides. I definitely like his chances more than the Cavs winning me $500 against the Warriors. I still won't bet the Belmont and will only watch. But I'm picking him on top to win it all. I wasn't sure after the Preakness. I'm a little sure now. If he runs his A-game, everyone else runs 2nd.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
stark
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Wed May 30, 2018 9:33 am

I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Diver52
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Wed May 30, 2018 12:03 pm

Fun read, thanks. :)
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
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honneerider
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Wed May 30, 2018 12:26 pm

Justify to Wear China Horse Club Silks in Belmont
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/ju ... n-belmont/
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bare it all
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Wed May 30, 2018 12:52 pm

honneerider wrote:Justify to Wear China Horse Club Silks in Belmont
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/ju ... n-belmont/
Ummmm... superstitions and whatnot are pretty hardcore in racing.

Maybe Mike can't find those silks that day.... :lol:
Somnambulist

Wed May 30, 2018 1:14 pm

bare it all wrote: Maybe Mike can't find those silks that day.... :lol:
Seriously.. the real story if he wins the TC will be how he did it with such an obvious no-no on his back.
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Katewerk
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Wed May 30, 2018 1:35 pm

The Curse is Dead!

Long Live The Curse!

#SilksCurse
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bare it all
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Wed May 30, 2018 1:37 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
bare it all wrote: Maybe Mike can't find those silks that day.... :lol:
Seriously.. the real story if he wins the TC will be how he did it with such an obvious no-no on his back.
Right?? I bet Baffert and Smith just threw their phones or flipped their laptops reading that info. "Poor" Mike... being robbed out of a TC because they made him change silks out. I can see it in a year "The only loss in Justify's storied career came in the 2018 Belmont. Coincidentally, this was the only race he ran in the CHC silks...." :lol:
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honneerider
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Wed May 30, 2018 2:04 pm

Personally, I don't like the change, either. Superstitious, but keep what has worked.
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Big Ten
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Wed May 30, 2018 11:55 pm

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I could actually play the Belmont on my Bovada account and get Justify at 4/5 future. I expect his odds will be lower by post time. Perhaps 2/5 again. I went nah. I thought what if I bet $100 now and then he gets scratched next week?

I am starting to believe Justify could be our 13th Triple Crown winner. About 60/40. Used to be only 25%. I don't think it will get any higher than 60% though. Certainly wouldn't take him at those 2/5 odds again for this race even if I was more sure.

I'll admit I might get a little teary-eyed if Justify wins the Belmont. Most of us didn't even know who the hell he was less than three months ago and I could get a little emo. Easy Goer was the last Big Red and he was nearly 30 years ago.

Think of every Triple Crown winner and rank them by looks and Secretariat probably ranks on top for most people. Justify could rank right up there with him. We will probably never see another beautiful horse like Justify attempting a TC for another 40-50 years.

Twenty to thirty years from now, someone will ask me, do you remember Justify? I'll be like, "Oh, yeah. I remember Justify. What a horse!" Those five weeks in 2018 evoke fond memories. Most beautiful Kentucky Derby winner I ever seen with my own two eyes.


Justify = 26 ft stride length?
https://youtu.be/LQYQLbfRxVE
https://youtu.be/R3W-a_wd2S8

DWL says "effortless stride"
https://youtu.be/XOPoIeLv4Ms

https://www.performancegenetics.com/sin ... ecretariat


https://www.americasbestracing.net/gamb ... he-belmont
Justify and American Pharoah achieved their Preakness victories in very different ways. American Pharoah went faster than Justify over the first half-mile (:46.49 vs. :47.19), but Justify caught up after three-quarters of a mile and traveled more than 2 ½ seconds faster than American Pharoah over the final 7/16ths of a mile, getting the distance in :44.51 seconds compared with :47.04 for American Pharoah. In the final three-sixteenths of a mile alone, Justify finished nearly a second faster than American Pharoah.

So why was American Pharoah able to win his Preakness in such decisive fashion if Justify arguably turned in the better performance? Two factors: Competition and track conditions. You can make a case that American Pharoah faced an easier field in the Preakness than Justify did – American Pharoah’s main rivals, Dortmund and Firing Line, failed to seriously threaten at any point, leaving the longshots Tale of Verve and Divining Rod to round out the top three behind American Pharoah. In contrast, Justify had to defeat the champion Good Magic in a prolonged duel for the lead and then hold off the accomplished graded stakes winner Bravazo in the final strides.

As for the track conditions, both Justify and American Pharoah won the Preakness over sloppy tracks, but whereas Justify benefited from racing over a sealed track (which is packed down tight), American Pharoah won the Preakness over an unsealed racing surface that had been hit by a torrential downpour just minutes before the race. Thus, the track was playing much slower than it would have been had there been time to seal the surface, which is reflected by the fact that American Pharoah received higher speed figures than Justify despite his slower final time:

American Pharoah’s Preakness: 102 Beyer Speed Figure, 100 BRIS Speed Figure

Justify’s Preakness: 97 Beyer Speed Figure, 98 BRIS Speed Figure

However, even if you attempt to adjust the raw fractional times to account for American Pharoah racing over a slower track, Justify still comes out as the faster horse over the final 7/16ths of a mile. In my opinion, this means two things: First off, it means that Justify was facing tougher competition that made his margin of victory less impressive. Secondly, it means that Justify’s performance may have been more impressive than he is being given credit for, considering that he finished as fast as he did after engaging Good Magic in a race-long battle for supremacy, whereas American Pharoah secured a clear lead in his Preakness and was never challenged.

In any case, we’ll get another chance to compare the two colts when Justify bids for glory in the Belmont Stakes, though if he can match his predecessor with a sweep of the Triple Crown, fractional and final times will take a backseat as racing celebrates its 13th Triple Crown winner.



http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/hors ... story.html
In that first blush after the race, Baffert seemed to put Justify and 2016 3-year-old of the Year Arrogate above Pharoah. He later amended that statement to say Arrogate, American Pharoah and Justify are the three best horses he’s trained, still an amazing statement considering Baffert has won five Derbys and six Preakness Stakes with horses such as Silver Charm and Point Given.

Back to the central comparison. American Pharoah emerged earlier than Justify, reigning as the 2-year-old champion in his class, even though he missed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2014. He wowed veteran clockers with that floating stride that inspired so many Baffert rhapsodies. But he actually had to fight hard to win the 2015 Derby, and that performance left many handicappers wondering if he was even the clear star of his crop.

Baffert equated Pharoah’s performance at Churchill to Justify’s winning run in the Santa Anita Derby — merely pretty good.

Justify’s Derby victory was certainly more commanding, so much so that rival trainers immediately conceded he was the best horse in the aftermath.

Baffert said he did not see that level of dominance from Pharoah until the Preakness, where he burst from a blinding rain storm to win by seven lengths. Then he led the Belmont Stakes gate to wire, putting to rest 37 years of Triple Crown frustration.

So it’s an incomplete comparison for at least another five weeks. But Baffert suggested Justify is one race ahead of Pharoah on the maturation cycle despite the fact he began his racing career so much later.

Justify is a massive horse, about 100 pounds heavier than Pharoah was for his Derby, and his athleticism is stunning for his size. Baffert compared him to LeBron James in that sense. With Pharoah, he always talked more about the stride than the body.

Jockey Mike Smith has also raved about Justify’s talent, saying he’s above average in every area and freakish in his acceleration. He compared the new Derby champ to Baffert’s 2001 Horse of the Year, Point Given, another powerfully built chestnut. But the consensus seems to be that Point Given was a touch clumsier.



https://www.xpressbet.com/component/con ... an-pharoah
Justify is bigger than American Pharoah with an accompanying stouter caboose. He’s more radiant in coat--although chestnuts seem to have a strange advantage; like how gentlemen prefer blondes.

While I haven’t measured it with a ruler, Justify’s stride appears to be longer than Pharoah’s was. However, the former isn’t quite as nimble nor as smooth changing leads as the latter. When Justify readjusts the weight of that massive frame from one prime limb to the other he does it with a deliberate move, almost a thud. If Justify suggests strength, power, dominance, Pharoah, implied poetry in motion. A silk scarf in a gentle breeze. When he switched leads it was accomplished with a magician’s sleight of hand. Now you see it, now you don’t.


1919 - Sir Barton
1930 - Gallant Fox
1935 - Omaha
1937 - War Admiral
1941 - Whirlaway
1943 - Count Fleet
1946 - Assault
1948 - Citation
1973 - Secretariat
1977 - Seattle Slew
1978 - Affirmed
2015 - American Pharoah
2018 - Justify

Justify is the best Triple Crown winner name since Citation and he could be the most beautiful Triple Crown winner since Secretariat.

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^ I always California dreamed we would have another Big Red and here he is. Could be the biggest Triple Crown winner we ever had. American Pharoah was actually taller and longer than Secretariat.

Just 10 more days until we see history again. Man o' War. Secretariat. Justify. Their birthdays right next to each other. Another Big Red for a new generation to love and cherish for the rest of our lives.

June 9th, fall in love with that day all over again...

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Secretariat's 45th Belmont anniversary is going to be another celebration for our 13th Triple Crown winner...

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Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Ballerina
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Thu May 31, 2018 8:11 am

bare it all wrote:
honneerider wrote:Justify to Wear China Horse Club Silks in Belmont
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/ju ... n-belmont/
Ummmm... superstitions and whatnot are pretty hardcore in racing.

Maybe Mike can't find those silks that day.... :lol:
They could outfit Mike in sack cloth and ashes and it wouldn't make one bit of difference.
luvsgeldings
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Thu May 31, 2018 9:01 am

when Justify didn't wear the CHC silks in the KY Derby, I told my husband, 'they are waiting for the Belmont' - not the first time they have done this - when they have combined owner groups, CHC seems to like having their silks worn for the 'biggest' races - pretty sure they all knew what they had with Justify - and they all knew they were going to have a great shot at the TC - so of course, he will wear the CHC silks on Belmont day.

the bloodhorse story on Justify's pony, Sunny, a nice read - wasn't there a lot of attention for AP's pony leading up to his TC? its all building up to the very real, very strong chance that we will have a new TC winner soon.

and my gosh the muscle tone on Justify - yikes - years ago when Falbrav was here for the BC, I thought he showed some strong muscle definition - and now seeing the recent pix of Justify, wow, he looks amazing.
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