Derby Point Races 2018

MySaladDays
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Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:44 am

nvrmind
Last edited by MySaladDays on Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
MySaladDays
Posts: 955
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:16 am

Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:48 am

the birthdate thing is "fun".

It was what allowed me to have Animal Kingdom for the win. We share the same birthday.

Pants on Fire, too.

Every year, since I was born on first day of spring, I look for my "womb mate" so to speak LOL Always put a sentimental wager on the horse, why not???

This year, nobody yet.
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Treve
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Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:59 pm

Continued from my previous post on the matter... Fields from 2000-2012 (before the points system)
Winners from 2000 - 2017
January: 0
February: 9
March: 3
April: 5
May: 1

Fields
2012
January: 3
February: 5
March: 7
April: 5 [Winner]
May:0
Finish Order: April, April, February, February

2011
January: 1
February: 4
March: 8 [Winner] *Uncle Mo is a March foal but was scratched before the race
April: 4
May: 1
June: 1 (Mucho Macho Man)
Finish Order: March, February, June, February

2010
January: 2
February: 6
March: 6 [Winner]
April: 3
May: 3
Finish Order: March, March, February, March

2009
January: 1
February: 6
March: 3 *I Want Revenge is a March foal but was scratched
April: 4
May: 5 [Winner]
Finish Order: May, May, May, February

2008
January: 0
February: 8
March: 8
April: 2 [Winner]
May: 2
Finish Order: April, February, February, March

2007
January: 2
February: 8 [Winner]
March: 6
April: 1
May: 3 (Scat Daddy was amongst these)
Finish Order: February, May, March, February

2006
January: 1
February: 6
March: 7
April: 4 [Winner]
May: 2
Finish Order: April, January, March, March

2005
January: 2
February: 3 [Winner]
March: 5
April: 7
May: 3
Finish Order: February, April, May, April

2004
January: 4
February: 4 [Winner]
March: 2
April: 6
May: 2
Finish Order: February, January, April, February

2003
January: 2
February: 3
March: 5
April: 6 [Winner]
May: 0
Finish Order: April, April, April, March

2002
January: 1
February: 6 [Winner] (Johannesburg was in here)
March: 6
April: 5 (Medaglia d'Oro here :D)
May: 0
Finish Order: February, March, April, April

2001
January: 0
February: 5 [Winner]
March: 7
April: 4
May: 1
Finish Order: February, April, April, May

2000
January: 1
February: 3
March: 9
April: 5 [Winner]
May: 1
Finish Order: April, March, April, April

There were only 3 years that February failed to hit the board, where comparatively March failed to hit the board for 5 years, including two of those where March had a numerical advantage over the other months. One noticeable difference with the points era, actually, is that from 2000 to 2012, there were a few years where February was either on even terms with March/the month with most runners or even had a numerical advantage over the rest of the field, which has not been the case since 2013. I'm not sure how useful a handicapping tool it is, but it was fun gathering that data. I'll let everyone draw their own conclusions but certain things surprised me and others were as expected.

I think the notion that January foals might have had a slight advantage in getting into the Derby off their 2 year old stakes earning in spite of not moving forward at 3 and subsequently underperforming could be very correct, especially when comparing to the points era. They've only hit the board twice, where May foals have hit the board 4 times in spite of those two months being generally at a numerical disadvantage.

I did think it was absolutely wild that a mid-June foal (Mucho Macho Man) hit the board once, I don't think it happens too often for a June foal to get into the Derby (it was the only time there was one in the field from 2000 to 2017).

Side note, it's also funny to see familiar names in those of the sires and grandsires of some of this year's Derby runners and where they ended up. If I tracked it right, none of the top/favourite Derby runners were sired by a Derby Winner this year, and in fact no horse in the current 20 horse field were sired by a Derby winner, none of them have sires that even hit the exacta. The highest placing for a sire that ran in the Derby is 3rd (Curlin).
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Dusty
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Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:42 pm

Treve wrote:Continued from my previous post on the matter... Fields from 2000-2012 (before the points system)
Winners from 2000 - 2017
January: 0
February: 9
March: 3
April: 5
May: 1

Fields
2012
January: 3
February: 5
March: 7
April: 5 [Winner]
May:0
Finish Order: April, April, February, February

2011
January: 1
February: 4
March: 8 [Winner] *Uncle Mo is a March foal but was scratched before the race
April: 4
May: 1
June: 1 (Mucho Macho Man)
Finish Order: March, February, June, February

2010
January: 2
February: 6
March: 6 [Winner]
April: 3
May: 3
Finish Order: March, March, February, March

2009
January: 1
February: 6
March: 3 *I Want Revenge is a March foal but was scratched
April: 4
May: 5 [Winner]
Finish Order: May, May, May, February

2008
January: 0
February: 8
March: 8
April: 2 [Winner]
May: 2
Finish Order: April, February, February, March

2007
January: 2
February: 8 [Winner]
March: 6
April: 1
May: 3 (Scat Daddy was amongst these)
Finish Order: February, May, March, February

2006
January: 1
February: 6
March: 7
April: 4 [Winner]
May: 2
Finish Order: April, January, March, March

2005
January: 2
February: 3 [Winner]
March: 5
April: 7
May: 3
Finish Order: February, April, May, April

2004
January: 4
February: 4 [Winner]
March: 2
April: 6
May: 2
Finish Order: February, January, April, February

2003
January: 2
February: 3
March: 5
April: 6 [Winner]
May: 0
Finish Order: April, April, April, March

2002
January: 1
February: 6 [Winner] (Johannesburg was in here)
March: 6
April: 5 (Medaglia d'Oro here :D)
May: 0
Finish Order: February, March, April, April

2001
January: 0
February: 5 [Winner]
March: 7
April: 4
May: 1
Finish Order: February, April, April, May

2000
January: 1
February: 3
March: 9
April: 5 [Winner]
May: 1
Finish Order: April, March, April, April

There were only 3 years that February failed to hit the board, where comparatively March failed to hit the board for 5 years, including two of those where March had a numerical advantage over the other months. One noticeable difference with the points era, actually, is that from 2000 to 2012, there were a few years where February was either on even terms with March/the month with most runners or even had a numerical advantage over the rest of the field, which has not been the case since 2013. I'm not sure how useful a handicapping tool it is, but it was fun gathering that data. I'll let everyone draw their own conclusions but certain things surprised me and others were as expected.

I think the notion that January foals might have had a slight advantage in getting into the Derby off their 2 year old stakes earning in spite of not moving forward at 3 and subsequently underperforming could be very correct, especially when comparing to the points era. They've only hit the board twice, where May foals have hit the board 4 times in spite of those two months being generally at a numerical disadvantage.

I did think it was absolutely wild that a mid-June foal (Mucho Macho Man) hit the board once, I don't think it happens too often for a June foal to get into the Derby (it was the only time there was one in the field from 2000 to 2017).

Side note, it's also funny to see familiar names in those of the sires and grandsires of some of this year's Derby runners and where they ended up. If I tracked it right, none of the top/favourite Derby runners were sired by a Derby Winner this year, and in fact no horse in the current 20 horse field were sired by a Derby winner, none of them have sires that even hit the exacta. The highest placing for a sire that ran in the Derby is 3rd (Curlin).
Interesting...THANK YOU
May they run with the WIND
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Sparrow Castle
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Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:57 pm

Treve wrote:I think the notion that January foals might have had a slight advantage in getting into the Derby off their 2 year old stakes earning in spite of not moving forward at 3 and subsequently underperforming could be very correct, especially when comparing to the points era. They've only hit the board twice, where May foals have hit the board 4 times in spite of those two months being generally at a numerical disadvantage.

I did think it was absolutely wild that a mid-June foal (Mucho Macho Man) hit the board once, I don't think it happens too often for a June foal to get into the Derby (it was the only time there was one in the field from 2000 to 2017).

Side note, it's also funny to see familiar names in those of the sires and grandsires of some of this year's Derby runners and where they ended up. If I tracked it right, none of the top/favourite Derby runners were sired by a Derby Winner this year, and in fact no horse in the current 20 horse field were sired by a Derby winner, none of them have sires that even hit the exacta. The highest placing for a sire that ran in the Derby is 3rd (Curlin).
Thanks for doing this, Treve. Yeah, it looks like the points system has changed the trend a bit. It'll be interesting to see if it holds true in future years.

As far as handicapping goes, I do like looking at historical data especially when certain contenders don't have much else separating them in my betting decisions. I've even used the data in the media guide sometimes. http://www.ntwab.org.sitemason.com/news ... le.3097416

I'm not going to subtract points from the May-foaled horses this year. But a big take away is that Tom Ryan is probably right. Maybe we should change the breeding season to start March 1st and end in July. Sounds like a better way to produce a Derby contender, not to mention it's more like nature intended and there'd be fewer long dark bitter cold nights for foaling managers. ;)
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Treve
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Wed Apr 25, 2018 12:32 am

You're welcome, both of you! I'm glad someone else found this interesting!
For me the most surprising takeaway was that no, January foals do not have an advantage as it is commonly thought of and older doesn't always = better.
There aren't many May foals that do make it into the gate, but they do better than expected generally when they do. One theory I'd propose is that in order for such a young horse to even make it into the Derby field, they'd have to have started maturing early enough to get points, or just be classy enough animals that can run with the best of them. I think this is especially apparent in 2009 when they swept the trifecta (which means over half (3 out of 5) of the May foals were in the money).

The one thing I can't make any real heads or tails of at the moment is the February/March numbers... basically since the points system it seems if you want a chance at having a Derby runner you should buy a March colt, but if you want a better chance at hitting the board, you'd want a February colt :lol: I think the larger Feb numbers from pre-points era probably is attributable to same thing as January foals - horses that got in on their stakes earnings as two year olds. Now with the points system, only those who are truly dominant enough to either maintain their peak forms for long enough and move forward as 3yos, or those who mature more slowly and emerge as 3yos make it in. My hunch with March is probably a mixture of a lot of foals being born during the month in general, and that on average they probably are maturing and coming into their own around the Derby trail period, so many of them get in, even if the bulk of them aren't necessarily above average.

Will definitely be one of the things I'm going to keep my eye on in coming year (I have also been tracking a few theories pertaining to the points system itself, in connection to the number of points earned and the finish orders of the Tris).
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BigDonOKC
Posts: 317
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:02 am

Treve wrote:You're welcome, both of you! I'm glad someone else found this interesting!
For me the most surprising takeaway was that no, January foals do not have an advantage as it is commonly thought of and older doesn't always = better.
There aren't many May foals that do make it into the gate, but they do better than expected generally when they do. One theory I'd propose is that in order for such a young horse to even make it into the Derby field, they'd have to have started maturing early enough to get points, or just be classy enough animals that can run with the best of them. I think this is especially apparent in 2009 when they swept the trifecta (which means over half (3 out of 5) of the May foals were in the money).

The one thing I can't make any real heads or tails of at the moment is the February/March numbers... basically since the points system it seems if you want a chance at having a Derby runner you should buy a March colt, but if you want a better chance at hitting the board, you'd want a February colt :lol: I think the larger Feb numbers from pre-points era probably is attributable to same thing as January foals - horses that got in on their stakes earnings as two year olds. Now with the points system, only those who are truly dominant enough to either maintain their peak forms for long enough and move forward as 3yos, or those who mature more slowly and emerge as 3yos make it in. My hunch with March is probably a mixture of a lot of foals being born during the month in general, and that on average they probably are maturing and coming into their own around the Derby trail period, so many of them get in, even if the bulk of them aren't necessarily above average.

Will definitely be one of the things I'm going to keep my eye on in coming year (I have also been tracking a few theories pertaining to the points system itself, in connection to the number of points earned and the finish orders of the Tris).
wrong I am older and better :P :P :P :P :P just ask the girls
aethervox
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Wed Apr 25, 2018 3:23 pm

Thought I'd add some data regarding month born.

I went back through my info and found the birth months for all the NOMINEES to the Triple Crown races for 2014-2018. I don't have info at hand for earlier years, but thought this might be of interest.

2018: 360 early, 10 late, 370 total nominations.
earliest 1/16/15
latest 6/8/15

Jan foals: 20 = 5.41%
Feb foals: 87 = 23.51%
Mar foals: 113 = 30.54%
Apr foals: 100 = 27.03%
May foals: 49 = 13.24%
Jun foals: 1 = 0.27%
Jul foals: 0 = 0.00%

2017: 419 early, 6 late, 1 supp, 426 total nominations.
earliest: 1/3/14
latest: 6/9/14

Jan foals: 27 = 6.32%
Feb foals: 109 = 25.53%
Mar foals: 122 = 28.57%
Apr foals: 113 = 26.46%
May foals: 54 = 12.65%
Jun foals: 1 = 0.23%
Jul foals: 0 = 0.00%

2016: 368 early, 9 late, 1 supp, 378 total nominations.
Earliest: 1/8/2013
Latest: 7/6/2013

Jan foals: 25 = 6.78%
Feb foals: 92 = 24.93%
Mar foals: 123 = 33.33%
Apr foals: 88 = 23.85%
May foals: 49 = 13.28%
Jun foals: 0 = 0.00%
Jul foals: 1 = 0.27%

2015: 429 early, 9 late, 438 total nominations.
Earliest 1/12/2012
Latest 5/28/2012

Jan foals: 26 = 5.92%
Feb foals: 99 = 22.55%
Mar foals: 158 = 35.99%
Apr foals: 114 = 25.97%
May foals: 41 = 9.34%
Jun foals: 0 = 0.00%
Jul foals: 0 = 0.00%

2014: 413 early, 10 late, 423 total nominations.
earliest 1/7/11
latest 6/5/11

Jan foals: 25 = 5.91%
Feb foals: 102 = 24.11%
Mar foals: 124 = 29.31%
Apr foals: 129 = 30.50%
May foals: 42 = 9.93%
Jun foals: 1 = 0.24%
Jul foals: 0 = 0.00%

aethervox
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Diver52
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Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:01 pm

I'm sorry if I missed or don't remember it, but has anyone posted the overall percentages of foals born in each month?
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
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Treve
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Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:43 pm

Diver52 wrote:I'm sorry if I missed or don't remember it, but has anyone posted the overall percentages of foals born in each month?
From total crops? No, Aethervox's numbers come the closest by tracking down nominations.
I imagine it would be harder to track down the overall number of foals born (and accounting for those who don't make it to the races for whatever reason) with our big 20 000 foal crops.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Sparrow Castle
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Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:58 pm

Treve wrote:
Diver52 wrote:I'm sorry if I missed or don't remember it, but has anyone posted the overall percentages of foals born in each month?
From total crops? No, Aethervox's numbers come the closest by tracking down nominations.
I imagine it would be harder to track down the overall number of foals born (and accounting for those who don't make it to the races for whatever reason) with our big 20 000 foal crops.
I actually tried to find foal crop by month of birth and had no luck. I do think nominations by month is a good proxy. Thanks, Aethervox, good add!

Considering the normal gestation period of mares and the current dates of the breeding sheds, I think it's logical that March/April would prevail and it's nice to see it in the data.
peeptoad
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 1:06 pm

anyone have a PT odds guesstimate?
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Diver52
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:54 pm

Right now I see Justify favored, but totally flexible based on works and the mysterious "buzz". And I think it's going to be very fluid.
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
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Treve
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 6:47 pm

As Diver has suggested it's hard to really speculate since we are still about a week out, not all horses have arrived at CD yet, and there's still opportunity for potential buzz that could build before Saturday afternoon. I'm no expert but if I had to haphazard a guess...

I think Justify will be the favourite come post time... maybe 3-1 thereabouts? Slightly lower?
I think Magnum Moon might be slightly higher than that in the 4-1 to 6-1 range.
I think Good Magic could be as high as 10-1 .
Not really sure about Audible and Vino Rosso, who are on the one hand flying under the radar, but on the other hand, Vino Rosso being Steve Haskin's number one two weeks in a row is giving him more attention. I could see Audible being in a similar range to Good Magic, but also could be as low as 5-1 perhaps? His foot thing might scare some bettors off. Vino Rosso I think could easily be as low as 7-1 or as high as 12-1.
The one I have a really hard time picturing is Bolt d'Oro. Part of me wouldn't be surprised if he is in the Magnum Moon range or a little higher because he still has his convinced backers, but he's been cooling off a little and I've not seen much buzz. I think Noble Indy is going to be relatively high for a horse who won his last prep. 16-1? 17-1? 18-1? My Boy Jack between 12-1 and 15-1. Not sure where Mendelssohn will be, I wouldn't be surprised if he's as high as 6-1 or even higher nor would I be surprised if he were second-favourite.
I do think Hofburg will be a bit of a wiseguy pick, but I haven't a clue how high he'd start or how low the public would bet him down. Same with Solomini and Flameaway, I don't know what the rest of the field will look like odds wise... aside from a vague "high" answer :lol:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Tessablue
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:55 pm

Based on the future pools, Vegas, and the offshore odds, I'm going to tentatively guess that Justify will go off around 5/2 or 3-1. Mendelssohn second favorite around 4 or 5-1, Audible and Magnum Moon next with Audible probably favored between the two (buzz has been fairly cold on MM), then Bolt around 8 or 9-1 and Vino Rosso around 10-1 or maybe a touch higher. Good Magic is the wildcard here, I have absolutely no idea how much he'll get played but I'd say 10-1ish if I had to guess. I expect a pretty large gap between the top seven (can you believe this Derby has a top seven?) and the rest of the field, with Hofburg next-lowest in the mid to high teens as he occupies his wiseguy spot.

It is insanely hard to predict the Derby odds though. The only thing I'm fairly confident about is Justify's odds, because the public has caught on to the fact that favorites have done well in this race recently and I think that will create a feedback loop that further lowers his odds.
Somnambulist
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:59 pm

Tessablue wrote: It is insanely hard to predict the Derby odds though. The only thing I'm fairly confident about is Justify's odds, because the public has caught on to the fact that favorites have done well in this race recently and I think that will create a feedback loop that further lowers his odds.
Why is there nothing on what a statistical anomaly this is? Favorites winning the Derby, anyway.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Senator L
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:09 pm

Current odds from the Westgate in Las Vegas
Personally I think the favorite will be at least 5-1 as the top ten horses are betable

All odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Superbook and current as of April 27.

2018 Kentucky Derby Odds
HORSE ODDS
Justify 7/2
Mendelssohn 5/1
Good Magic 6/1
Magnum Moon 7/1
Audible 8/1
Bolt d'Oro 8/1
Vino Rosso 10/1
Enticed 12/1
Noble Indy 30/1
My Boy Jack 30/1
Hofburg 40/1
Lone Sailor 40/1
Combatant 40/1
Solomini 50/1
Flameaway 50/1
Instilled Regard 60/1
Strike Power 60/1
Free Drop Billy 80/1
Firenze Fire 100/1
Promises Fulfilled 150/1
Bravazo 150/1
Restoring Hope 300/1
Reride 300/1
Dream Baby Dream 300/1
Snapper Sinclair 300/1
Sporting Chance 300/1
No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse.
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stark
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:12 pm

peeptoad wrote:anyone have a PT odds guesstimate?
MY UPDATED KENTUCKY DERBY EARLY ODDS BY SANTA ANITA ODDS MAKER JON WHITE

Mike Battaglia’s official morning line for the Kentucky Derby will be issued next Tuesday after the important draw for post positions. Meanwhile, these are my updated early odds for the 20 horses currently listed as in the field by Churchill Downs following the defections of Quip and Gronkowski:

3-1 Justify
6-1 Magnum Moon
6-1 Mendelssohn
8-1 Audible
8-1 Bolt d’Oro
8-1 Good Magic
15-1 Vino Rosso
20-1 Enticed
20-1 Free Drop Billy
20-1 Hofburg
20-1 Noble Indy
20-1 My Boy Jack
20-1 Solomini
30-1 Flameaway
30-1 Instilled Regard
50-1 Bravazo
50-1 Combatant
50-1 Firenze Fire
50-1 Lone Sailor
50-1 Promises Fulfilled
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Somnambulist
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:13 pm

I really live in a world where Justify might be 3-1.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Ballerina
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:27 pm

Somnambulist wrote:I really live in a world where Justify might be 3-1.
I recall your saying something similar when Gun Runner went off the ML favorite in the BCC. :-)
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