Derby Point Races 2018

peeptoad
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:20 pm

I could very well be way off the mark (wouldn't be the first time!) but my gut feeling about My Boy Jack is that he will find the 10F beyond his best distance, if he makes the field.
BigDonOKC
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:52 pm

My boy jack has 32 points and is in 13 place 8 horses will have to get over 32 to keep him out. There are six 100-point races and one 20 point race. That a possible 14 horses who can get 100 to 40 point that seven more than need to take him out but most of these will be horse with over 32 point let say ½ so that leaves 6 and he still in. The last 10 point races they have all been new moving to top 10 so it is possible that some will be new. He should enter the Lexington or 20 or 8 point and drop out if he knows he in by April 17. :roll:
BigDonOKC
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:54 pm

peeptoad wrote:I could very well be way off the mark (wouldn't be the first time!) but my gut feeling about My Boy Jack is that he will find the 10F beyond his best distance, if he makes the field.
so you never watch his race this weekend. 8-)
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Curtis
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:57 pm

peeptoad wrote:I could very well be way off the mark (wouldn't be the first time!) but my gut feeling about My Boy Jack is that he will find the 10F beyond his best distance, if he makes the field.
I think you can say that about 90% of those being pointed for the race. I don’t think he’s got more than a puncher’s chance to win but I don’t know that he’s any worse than Golden Soul or Commanding Curve and I’m still not convinced Lookin’ at Lee is anything but a one-turn horse. Rain wouldn’t hurt My Boy Jack either. The main problem is that Desormeaux doesn’t want to run in another prep but may need to run again. CDI is essentially training his horse.
peeptoad
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 3:31 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:
peeptoad wrote:I could very well be way off the mark (wouldn't be the first time!) but my gut feeling about My Boy Jack is that he will find the 10F beyond his best distance, if he makes the field.
so you never watch his race this weekend. 8-)
Yes, I did. His late pace/time in the final 1/8th was the worst of the top 3 finishers. He made a move and flattened. That doesn't give me hope for going longer, but a different track on a different day is a different story.

Curtis wrote:
peeptoad wrote:I could very well be way off the mark (wouldn't be the first time!) but my gut feeling about My Boy Jack is that he will find the 10F beyond his best distance, if he makes the field.
I think you can say that about 90% of those being pointed for the race. I don’t think he’s got more than a puncher’s chance to win but I don’t know that he’s any worse than Golden Soul or Commanding Curve and I’m still not convinced Lookin’ at Lee is anything but a one-turn horse. Rain wouldn’t hurt My Boy Jack either. The main problem is that Desormeaux doesn’t want to run in another prep but may need to run again. CDI is essentially training his horse.
Yes, of course on the 90%.... mud would appear to aid his cause, if it happens to rain.
Kennedy
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:28 pm

peeptoad wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:
peeptoad wrote:I could very well be way off the mark (wouldn't be the first time!) but my gut feeling about My Boy Jack is that he will find the 10F beyond his best distance, if he makes the field.
so you never watch his race this weekend. 8-)
Yes, I did. His late pace/time in the final 1/8th was the worst of the top 3 finishers. He made a move and flattened. That doesn't give me hope for going longer, but a different track on a different day is a different story.
I totally get what you're saying, his flattening out was a big worry but I still feel that me might be the one horse who could benefit most from a pace meltdown and likely any race in the mud.

It's not that he actually closes hard or anything. I have his 3 preps this year with closing splits of 12.8, 12.9 and 13.0 which is not great but I just feel that positionally since he is likely to be so far back he might be well suited to take advantage of a meltdown. Now having said that if someone like Vino Rosso were to get the points he needs I think he'd be my favored option for a closer. I think he's more genuine at the distance and he actually runs fast closing splits.

Closers haven't had a good time in the preps so far though. There may actually be none in the Derby unless Jack gets in. So a part of me wants a small piece of a horse that almost solely represents the contrarian option at this point.
Tessablue
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 6:25 pm

I really wish we had Trakus information from the Louisiana Derby. I think it's entirely possibly that My Boy Jack flattened out late because he made a genuinely fast move wide on the turn heading for home, then couldn't sustain it. According to the chart, he ran an interior quarter of 23 4/5 prior to that slowish final furlong, but without Trakus I have no idea how accurate that is or how that breaks out into eighths. Can't blame a 3yo for failing to finish after a wide early move, and Kent does pull the trigger early on some of those horses... but on the other hand, late-closing masters of illusion are serially overbet in the Derby.

Is he Exaggerator or My Man Sam? I'd say the latter, but he's worth keeping an eye on.
BigDonOKC
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:18 pm

Tessablue wrote:I really wish we had Trakus information from the Louisiana Derby. I think it's entirely possibly that My Boy Jack flattened out late because he made a genuinely fast move wide on the turn heading for home, then couldn't sustain it. According to the chart, he ran an interior quarter of 23 4/5 prior to that slowish final furlong, but without Trakus I have no idea how accurate that is or how that breaks out into eighths. Can't blame a 3yo for failing to finish after a wide early move, and Kent does pull the trigger early on some of those horses... but on the other hand, late-closing masters of illusion are serially overbet in the Derby.

Is he Exaggerator or My Man Sam? I'd say the latter, but he's worth keeping an eye on.
He did not fail to finish just ran out of ground. :arrow:
Izvestia
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:31 pm

I have not been paying attention. But is there a possibility he did finish strong, but so did the winner?
BigDonOKC
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:40 pm

Izvestia wrote:I have not been paying attention. But is there a possibility he did finish strong, but so did the winner?
very true and he closed big time do you know where to watch all the point race reruns?
BaroqueAgain1
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:27 pm

You could check Bloodhorse, which has stakes race replays about halfway down the home page. You might have to scroll through some history to find the races that were run weeks ago.
Last edited by BaroqueAgain1 on Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Treve
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:44 pm

A lot of them end up on youtube as well just search [stakes name] 2018
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BigDonOKC
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Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:34 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:You could check Bloodhorse, which has stakes race replays about halfway down the home page. You might have to scroll through some history to find the races that were run weeks ago.
try this https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/prep-races
:P :P all are they
BigDonOKC
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Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:59 pm

the Florida derby has 4 horses with point all 4 look good on paper. #4 Promises fulfilled has 52 point and need none out of this race to get in where two horse need to run 1st or second and one need only to run 4th. all other need to run 1st and second. :roll:
BigDonOKC
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Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:26 pm

Gulfstreampark 0 DATE 43190 RACE 14 TYPE OF RACE Grade I DISTANCE 1 1/8m
HORSE # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1R-Speed 101 86 86 104 85 101 96 105 102
Average Speed 101 74 85 95 90 96 88 97 97
1RP 2 4 3 -1 7 2 -1 -1 2
Average Place 0.0 6.3 4.0 0.3 4.7# 1.7 1.5 -1.0 1.0
1R LO 2.3 3.8 3.3 -2.3 16.0 0.5 -0.5 -5.5 0.1
Average LO -2.8 8.0 10.1 0.1 7.8 -0.9 4.3 -5.7 -0.3
Win % 67% 10% 20% 75% 29% 60% 50% 75% 25%
Show% 100% 20% 60% 100% 71% 80% 50% 100% 75%
inmoney% 267% 50% 110% 250% 157% 220% 150% 250% 175% !
Money 225 30 133 327 107 354 36 288 58
money Per race 75 3 13 82 15 71 18 72 15
SYESTEM 237 69 89 240 96 228 118 247 145
SYSTEM W.MONEY 462 99 222 567 203 582 154 535 203
old system 11 0 0 11 0 11 2 13 6
HORSE # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
TOP 5
1R-Speed 8 4 9 1…6 SPEED 8 9 1..6
Average Speed 1 8..9 6 8…1
1RP 4..7..8 1..9..6 PLACE 8 4 1 9
Average Place 8 1 4 9
1R LO 8 4 7 9 LENGTH 8 9
Average LO 8 1 9 6
Win % 8..4 1 6 W% 8..4 1 6
Show% 1..4..8 6 S % 1..4..8 6
inmoney% 1 4..8 6 IM 1 4..8 6 OFF
Money 6 4 8 1 RM 4 8 6 1
money Per race 4 8 1 6 S-SWM 4 8..6 1
SYESTEM 4 1..8 6 SWM-OS 4 6 8…1
SYSTEM W.MONEY 4 6 8 1 S-SWM-OS 4 8 6…1
old system 8 1..4..6 PICK 8 4 1 6
RAN
BigDonOKC
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Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:13 am

Something to keep in mind last year top 3 in derby had northing Dancer on both side of blood line 4 to 5 g, back just saying :o
BigDonOKC
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Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:50 pm

this race comes down to one factor late run. Audible is full of it. :D
aethervox
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Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:00 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:1R LO 2.3 3.8 3.3 -2.3 16.0 0.5 -0.5 -5.5 0.1
Average LO -2.8 8.0 10.1 0.1 7.8 -0.9 4.3 -5.7 -0.3
Don, what does LO stand for?

Thanks!
BigDonOKC
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Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:12 pm

aethervox wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:1R LO 2.3 3.8 3.3 -2.3 16.0 0.5 -0.5 -5.5 0.1
Average LO -2.8 8.0 10.1 0.1 7.8 -0.9 4.3 -5.7 -0.3
Don, what does LO stand for?

Thanks!
LO is length out at the wire
Average LO is the average of 3 races.
used to check to see if a horse runs his average.

also each horse is listed from left to right in order 1-9
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