The Preakness

Little Watermelon
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Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:27 am

Fri May 12, 2017 2:30 pm

stark wrote:
blamethewinner wrote: This isn't an accurate line.
Roxy Roxborough‏ @RoxyLasVegas 21h21 hours ago
#Preakness 100 point line. My odds.

Hmmmm, Roxy usually says something like....if I see odds higher than these, I'm betting.

What would be an accurate line for you?
http://www.arlingtonpark.com/node/10222

This guy is pretty good, scroll down to about the last seven paragraphs. I agree, the line doesn't look right. Also, in a normal sized field you usually don't see runners at 70-1, no matter how poorly matched he looks.
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Big Ten
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Fri May 12, 2017 5:05 pm

Really like the latest logo for the Preakness. Like a Sith, black and red usually looks nice to me.

Image

1. Always Dreaming
2. Classic Empire

3. Gunnevera
4. Lookin At Lee
5. Hence
6. Conquest Mo Money
7. Multiplier
8. Royal Mo
9. Cloud Computing

10. Senior Investment
11. Lancaster Bomber

After watching California Chrome run a dud in the Pegasus Cup and longshots finish 2nd in the last two Preaknesses and recent Ky Derby, Always Dreaming exacta with all or exacta box Always Dreaming and Classic Empire?

$40 Exacta Box
Always Dreaming, Classic Empire

$10 Exacta
Always Dreaming w/ Gunnevera
Classic Empire w/ Gunnevera

or

$40 Exacta
Always Dreaming w/ Classic Empire

$20 Exacta
Always Dreaming w/ Gunnevera

$5 Exacta
Always Dreaming w/ the rest of the 8

I'm still undecided if Classic Empire defeats Always Dreaming after getting clobbered at the start, if he simply can't catch Always Dreaming without the excuses, and if some oddball longshot runs 2nd again?

To exacta box the two clear standouts of the field or to pick one over all?

2013, 2014, 2017 Kentucky Derby -
Longshot for 2nd

2015, 2016 Preakness -
Longshot for 2nd

2017 Pegasus Cup -
Shaman Ghost was 2nd but everyone was paying huge for California Chrome to hit the board and he didn't.

That American Pharoah Preakness $124 exacta really did pay well for a 8-horse field. With 11 horses, maybe it is better to play one horse over all. No guarantee Classic Empire will finish 2nd. This isn't like some Sunday Silence vs Easy Goer showdown, I still can't trust Classic Empire or Always Dreaming as much.

Shame if Always Dreaming loses next weekend like what happened to Super Saver seven years ago. The irony if it was from the 2yo champ again or from Lookin At Lucky's son! No more hype for the Belmont where I would rather try to beat him there. I also prefer if Hence, Lookin At Lee, and Gunnevera was saved up for Belmont except a smaller Preakness field with lessen the payouts.

Tried playing top heavy with favs and lost money with the Pegasus and Ky Derby. It's now Always Dreaming or bust for me. Gonna have to let Classic Empire beat me in the Preakness and then maybe go for him in the Belmont. The 2yo champ at 3-1 or 4-1 in the Preakness would be enticing though. I will have Empire's back next month instead.

Let's keep on Dreaming! Keep our attention for another three weeks after.Pletcher and Velazquez needs to at least "taste" the feeling at attempting to win the Triple Crown. Baffert tried it three times before coming through with his 4th attempt. The now horse vs the 2yo champ! A 1989 or 2007 Preakness photo finish? Maybe.

"With All" bets is lazy handicapping but it didn't kill all my capital either like the chalky bet did. I used to do trifectas for this race but only focus on the win or exacta boxes these days.

AD/CE $15 exacta payout x 20 = $300
AD/Gunny $30 exacta payout x 10 = $300

Breaks even or profits with a minimum $40 exacta payout with AD over the rest.

All that for a $200 profit? That's like playing AD at 2-1 for the win. The problem is he will likely be anywhere between 4-5 to 6-5. And a Lancaster Bomber 2nd could pay heavy at over $120 (x 2.5 = $300).

Triple or nothing wagers with the chalk.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Treve
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Sat May 13, 2017 12:32 pm

According to Classic Empire's exercise rider he's been on the muscle and training more aggressively than before the Derby.
He'll be shipping to Baltimore on Sunday.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
luvsgeldings
Posts: 985
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Location: SoCal

Sat May 13, 2017 6:18 pm

man oh man I just love this horse, classic empire - he is probably still p!ssed at how that Derby went down - he can't wait to get back out there and do his thing - as much as I would enjoy seeing Always Dreaming get a shot at the TC, I won't be too upset if CE beats him in the Preakness - I sure like both of these horses - hoping they both get a great run in the Preakness.
Apollo
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Sun May 14, 2017 12:33 am

Roxy is a good guy. He was the chief Las Vegas oddsmaker circa mid '80s and well into the '90s. He also co-hosted with Arne Lang a very popular and informative Stardust Line radio program for several years. I was guest handicapper many times and was offered the cohost role at one point. I turned it down because they didn't pay much of anything and they required you to do it year round, which I wanted no part of, given the 115 degree summers when I could otherwise be at the British Open or Saratoga or wherever. Maybe not my best move. I know the guy who took the gig instead sarcastically thanked me a few times.

Roxy was doing all sports at that point but his obsession was clearly horse racing, and specifically to hit a huge Pick Six or several. His parents lived in Coral Gables and he told me he hoped to relocate there after leaving Las Vegas but I think he moved abroad for betting purposes.

That's the way oddsmakers operate, BTW. They don't pick games or races as opposed to constantly making their own numbers and cherry picking the theoretical value.

I always appreciated that Roxy would seek input and listen, as opposed to scoffing at anything that didn't jive with his own numbers.
blamethewinner
Posts: 516
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Sun May 14, 2017 9:12 am

Apollo wrote:Roxy is a good guy. He was the chief Las Vegas oddsmaker circa mid '80s and well into the '90s. He also co-hosted with Arne Lang a very popular and informative Stardust Line radio program for several years. I was guest handicapper many times and was offered the cohost role at one point. I turned it down because they didn't pay much of anything and they required you to do it year round, which I wanted no part of, given the 115 degree summers when I could otherwise be at the British Open or Saratoga or wherever. Maybe not my best move. I know the guy who took the gig instead sarcastically thanked me a few times.

Roxy was doing all sports at that point but his obsession was clearly horse racing, and specifically to hit a huge Pick Six or several. His parents lived in Coral Gables and he told me he hoped to relocate there after leaving Las Vegas but I think he moved abroad for betting purposes.

That's the way oddsmakers operate, BTW. They don't pick games or races as opposed to constantly making their own numbers and cherry picking the theoretical value.

I always appreciated that Roxy would seek input and listen, as opposed to scoffing at anything that didn't jive with his own numbers.
I'm familiar with his work and respect the job he's done. But a 100 point line for parimutuel purposes is inaccurate, especially given that it will force you to inflate every price, just as he did in this particular instance.
Laurierace
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Sun May 14, 2017 9:14 am

Royal Mo was just vanned off in an air cast.
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Life At Zen
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Sun May 14, 2017 9:34 am

Laurierace wrote:Royal Mo was just vanned off in an air cast.

FUCK
Once upon a time there was a horse named Kelso.
But only once. ~Joe Hirsch
BlindLucky
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Sun May 14, 2017 10:01 am

X-ray apparently shows a fracture to right front inside sesamoid :(
Photos from my racing travels: ThoroughbredJourney.com
Laurierace
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Sun May 14, 2017 10:05 am

carole
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Sun May 14, 2017 10:59 am

His injury is career ending but they believe it is not life-threatning.
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Treve
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Sun May 14, 2017 11:37 am

That's terrible poor boy :(
I know a lot of people had hoped he would get into the Derby gate.
Wishing he makes a swift recovery.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Big Ten
Posts: 785
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Sun May 14, 2017 12:27 pm

May not wager on this race since I could be busy on Saturday. Always Dreaming's odds will be just way too low to play it.

I also believe Classic Empire, Gunnevera and Hence can bounce back. Asmussen finds ways to hit the board. Conquest Mo Money and Royal Mo might also soften AD's chances early that it can set it up for my #2, #3, and #5 Derby picks.

For 2006 Ky Derby, I was high on Sweetnorthernsaint. He gets a bad trip. Barbaro wins by daylight. I pick Barbaro to win next out, but he breaks down and Bernardini and SNS run 1-2.

That's kinda my feelings for CE, Gunny, or Hence. SNS bounces back to run 2nd or maybe upset since none of them cared for that yucky track in CD or got the trip they needed.

Sometimes in the Preakness, anything can happen. Red Bullet beating what was a mortal lock in Fusaichi Pegasus. Curlin noses out Street Sense. The percentage for favorites has went down over the years.

The Ky Derby has been the most formal of the two in this decade.

Beaten Preakness favorites -

Super Saver (9-5) loses
Lookin At Lucky (5-2) wins

Animal Kingdom (2-1) loses
Shackleford (12-1) wins

Bodemeister (8-5) loses
I'll Have Another (3-1) wins

Orb (3-5) loses
Oxbow (15-1) wins

Nyquist (3-5) loses
Exaggerator (5-2) wins

2010-Present
Derby favs - 5 for 8 winners (62.5%)
Preakness favs - 2 for 7 winners (28.6%)
Preakness 2nd choice - 3 for 7 winners (42.9%)


The second betting choice from the Preakness have been just as successful with four winners the last 10 runnings (Curlin, Lookin At Lucky, I'll Have Another, Exaggerator) as the chalk.

Confidence level
40% - Always Dreaming wins
40% - Classic Empire wins
20% - An alternative wins

40% - AD and CE go 1-2

^ Still have a bad taste in my mouth when mortal lock Arrogate / California Chrome exacta box and both in all my trifectas and supers didn't happen in the Pegasus.

At least weather is looking better this year than the previous two when longshots like Tale of Verve and Cherry Wine ran 2nd. Preakness is becoming more of a trap race than the Ky Derby.

These are the only horses I would play on my tickets but I wouldn't be shocked if one of my non-picks ruins my tickets...

Always Dreaming
Classic Empire
Gunnevera
Hence
Lookin At Lee
Conquest Mo Money
Royal Mo

The pair of Uncle Mos can soften AD early, then CE, Gunny, or Hence can run them down. You gotta love Gary Stevens on Royal Mo considering he used the same speedy tactics with Oxbow to wire the field. I also like Mike Smith with the best closer in the field. Becoming the harder race to hit than the Derby.

Just remember since Street Sense was upset by Curlin in 2007, only four favorites (Big Brown, Rachel Alexandra, California Chrome, American Pharoah) have won during last 10 runnings. That's 40% or the same as the 2nd choices and my confidence level I have for Always Dreaming and Classic Empire to win the Preakness. At 4-5 or 2-1, gamble AD at your own risk.

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt. It runs through Maryland these days. The Empire Strikes Back? Get the 2YO champ at 4-1 if you can. The problem with Classic Empire is his excuses keep piling up next to his losses. He needs to show up this time with nomore excuses like the bad trips Lookin At Lucky got in the SA and Ky Derby. Hoping for nomore excuses from CE and runs his race.

I would put $100 to win on Classic Empire if he goes off at 4-1 or higher. Like any racing fan, I would love Always Dreaming to win the Triple Crown. I would love to see TC winners every year. I don't care if it becomes too easy or multiple winners cheapens the accomplishment. Except betting the Preakness chalk isn't guaranteed these days anymore.

$40 win - Classic Empire (3-1)
$20 exacta box - AD, CE
$4 exacta - CE w/ Gunn, Hence, LAL, CMM, RM
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Treve
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Sun May 14, 2017 12:43 pm

Big Ten, Royal Mo has been injured and his career is finished.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
luvsgeldings
Posts: 985
Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2014 6:18 pm
Location: SoCal

Sun May 14, 2017 1:18 pm

so very sorry to read this news about Royal Mo - was looking forward to seeing him in the Preakness - what a handsome horse - saw him run at santa anita - gorgeous big boy - disappointed he never made it into the derby field - and had higher hopes for him later this year - but this news from pimlico this morning.... just awful - thank goodness he has a chance for a life after racing - hoping this happens for him - thankful Gary Stevens is the great horseman he is and got Mo stopped and the leg up right away - such fine owners and an absolutely wonderful classy trainer - this boy will get the best care - hoping he gets thru this and has a long healthy life after.
firehorse
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Sun May 14, 2017 4:34 pm

ROYAL MO with John Shirreffs this am @PimlicoRC , waiting to load on van for New Bolton. @DRFPrivman article: http://live.drf.com/nuggets/36676

At least it didn't happen next weekend :( , he's a beautiful horse.

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Catalina
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Sun May 14, 2017 6:18 pm

Very poignant photograph.
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Sparrow Castle
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Sun May 14, 2017 7:01 pm

firehorse wrote:ROYAL MO with John Shirreffs this am @PimlicoRC , waiting to load on van for New Bolton. @DRFPrivman article: http://live.drf.com/nuggets/36676

At least it didn't happen next weekend :( , he's a beautiful horse.

Image
Heartbreaking. Hope Royal Mo has a complete recovery.
luvsgeldings
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Sun May 14, 2017 9:48 pm

Jeremy Balan wrote some lovely words about John Shirreffs this morning - as he observed John taking care of Mo - so true.... John Shirreffs is a wonderfully compassionate and empathetic caretaker of his horses - I just love him.
barbaro111
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Sun May 14, 2017 10:13 pm

Catalina wrote:Very poignant photograph.

Yes--very touching
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