Breeder's Cup Saturday

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carole
Posts: 2634
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2013 4:57 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 4:43 pm

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) Nov 2 12:05 PM PT
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Artemis Agrotera Jose Lezcano Michael E. Hushion 3-1
2 Rosalind Joel Rosario Kenneth G. McPeek 8-1---THIRD---
3 Designer Legs Joe Talamo Dallas Stewart 30-1
4 Secret Compass John Velasquez Bob Baffert 6-1
5 Ria Antonia Javier Castellano Jeremiah C. Englehart 30-1---SECOND=PLACED FIRST AFTER DQ---
6 Concave Mario Gutierrez Doug F. O'Neill 15-1
7 Untapable Rosie Napravnik Steven M. Asmussen 5-1
8 Scandalous Act Edwardo Nunez Kathleen M. O'Connell 8-1
9 Sweet Reason Alex Solis Leah Gyarmati 5-2
10 She's a Tiger Gary Stevens Jeffrey L. Bonde 6-1---WINNER=DISQUALIFIED TO SECOND---

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. IT) Nov 2 12:43 PM PT
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Dank Ryan Moore Sir Michael R. Stoute 5-2---WINNER---
2 Romantica Maxime H. Guyon Andre Fabre 6-1---SECOND---
3 Tiz Flirtatious Julien R. Leparoux Martin F. Jones 7-2
4 Alterite John Velazquez Chad C. Brown 10-1---THIRD---
5 Lady of Shamrock Victor Espinoza John W. Sadler 20-1
6 Marketing Mix Gary Stevens Thomas F. Proctor 7-2
7 Laughing Jose Lezcano Alan E. Goldberg 8-1
8 Emollient Mike Smith William I. Mott 12-1
9 Qushchi Edgar Prado H. Graham Motion 20-1
10 Kitten's Dumplings Joel Rosario Michael J. Maker 10-1

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (gr. I) Nov 2 1:21 PM PT
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Renee's Titan Mario Gutierrez Doug F. O'Neill 30-1
2 Book Review Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 6-1
3 Starship Truffles Gary Stevens Martin D. Wolfson 15-1
4 Dance Card Joel Rosario Kiaran P. McLaughlin 8-1---THIRD---
5 Teddy's Promise Victor Espinoza Ronald W. Ellis 6-1
6 Ismene Mike Smith William Spawr 20-1
7 Summer Applause Javier Castellano Chad C. Brown 12-1
8 Dance to Bristol Xavier Perez Ollie L. Figgins III 5-1
9 Judy the Beauty John Velazquez Wesley A. Ward 6-1---SECOND---
10 Great Hot Chantal Sutherland Antonio C. Avila 20-1
11 Groupie Doll Rajiv Maragh William Bradley 5-2---WINNER---
12 Sweet Lulu Julien Leparoux Jerry Hollendorfer 8-1

Geico Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (gr. IT) Nov 2 2:05 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Jeranimo Victor Espinoza Mike Pender 12-1
2 Rock Me Baby Joe Talamo Craig Dollase 30-1
3 Chips All In Julien R. Leparoux Jeff Mullins 5-1
4 Reneesgotzip Edwin A. Maldonado Peter Miller 5-1---DEAD HEAT SECOND---
5 Caracortado Gary Stevens Michael Machowsky 8-1---SCRATCH---
6 Boat Trip Rafael Bejarano Mike Pender 8-1
7 Tightend Touchdown Javier Castellano Jason Servis 12-1---DEAD HEAT SECOND---
8 Handsome Mike Mario Gutierrez Doug F. O'Neill 30-1
9 Capo Bastone Joel Rosario Todd A. Pletcher 8-1
10 Havelock James Graham Darrin Miller 10-1
11 Spring to the Sky John Velazquez Bruce Brown 30-1
12 Mizdirection Mike Smith Mike Puype 4-1---WINNER---
13 Dimension David Moran Conor Murphy 12-1
14 Unbridled's Note Corey Nakatani Steven M. Asmussen 8-1

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) Nov 2 2:43 PM
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Smarty's Echo E. T. Baird Anne P. Smith 20-1
2 Dance With Fate Rafael Bejarano Peter A. Eurton 8-1
3 Mexikoma Alan Garcia Richard C. Mettee 12-1
4 New Year's Day Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 8-1---WINNER---
5 Bond Holder Mario Gutierrez Doug F. O'Neill 8-1
6 Tap It Rich Mike Smith Bob Baffert 6-1
7 Cleburne Corey Nakatani Dale L. Romans 12-1---SCRATCH---
8 Conquest Titan Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark E. Casse 30-1
9 Rum Point Edwin A. Maldonado Doug F. O'Neill 30-1
10 We Miss Artie Javier Castellano Todd A. Pletcher 8-1
11 Medal Count Robby Albarado Dale L. Romans 20-1
12 Diamond Bachelor Julien R. Leparoux Patrick L. Biancone 12-1
13 Havana John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 5-2---SECOND---
14 Strong Mandate Joel Rosario D. Wayne Lukas 6-1---THIRD---

Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. IT) Nov 2 3:22 PM PT
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Vagabond Shoes Victor Espinoza John W. Sadler 15-1
2 Teaks North Martin Garcia Eric J. Guillot 30-1
3 Twilight Eclipse Julien R. Leparoux Thomas Albertrani 20-1
4 Little Mike Mike Smith Dale L. Romans 6-1
5 Skyring Luis Saez D. Wayne Lukas 30-1
6 Tale of a Champion Joe Talamo Kristin Mulhall 30-1
7 The Fugue William Buick John H.M. Gosden 3-1---SECOND---
8 Point of Entry John Velazquez Claude R. McGaughey III 4-1
9 Indy Point Gary Stevens Richard E. Mandella 9-2---THIRD---
10 Big Blue Kitten Joe Bravo Chad C. Brown 6-1
11 Magician Ryan Moore Aidan P. O'Brien 8-1---WINNER---
12 Real Solution Javier Castellano Chad C. Brown 8-1

Xpressbet Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I) Nov 2 4:01 PM PT
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Justin Phillip John Velazquez Steven M. Asmussen 4-1
2 The Lumber Guy Mike Luzzi Michael E. Hushion 12-1
3 Gentlemen's Bet Javier Castellano Ron Moquett 8-1---THIRD---
4 Majestic Stride Edwin A. Maldonado Jeffrey L. Bonde 20-1
5 Sum of the Parts Leandro R. Goncalves Thomas M. Amoss 12-1
6 Bahamian Squall Luis Saez David Fawkes 10-1
7 Private Zone Martin A. Pedroza Doug F. O'Neill 3-1
8 Fast Bullet Joel Rosario D. Wayne Lukas 6-1
9 Secret Circle Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 4-1---WINNER---
10 Wine Police Enrique Portillo Gomez Henry Dominguez 30-1
11 Trinniberg Rajiv Maragh Shivananda Parbhoo 8-1
12 Laugh Track Mike Smith Mark E. Casse 20-1---SECOND---

Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. IT) Nov 2 4:40 PM PT
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 No Jet Lag Mike Smith Simon Callaghan 8-1
2 Silentio Rafael Bejarano Gary Mandella 20-1---THIRD---
3 Silver Max Robby Albarado Dale L. Romans 5-1
4 Obviously Joe Talamo Mike R. Mitchell 10-1
5 Olympic Glory Richard Hughes Richard Hannon 4-1
6 Bright Thought Julien Leparoux Jorge Gutierrez 20-1
7 He Be Fire N Ice Victor Espinoza John W. Sadler 15-1
8 Wise Dan John Velazquez Charles LoPresti 1-1---WINNER---
9 Cristoforo Colombo Ryan Moore Aidan P. O'Brien 15-1
10 Za Approval Joel Rosario Christophe Clement 15-1---SECOND---

Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) Nov. 2 5:35 PM PT
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Last Gunfighter Javier Castellano Chad C. Brown 20-1
2 Paynter Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 12-1
3 Planteur Ryan Moore Marco Botti 20-1
4 Moreno Joe Talamo Eric J. Guillot 15-1
5 Declaration of War Joseph O'Brien Aidan P. O'Brien 10-1---THIRD---
6 Mucho Macho Man Gary Stevens Kathy Ritvo 5-1---WINNER---
7 Fort Larned Brian Hernandez I an R. Wilkes 6-1
8 Palace Malice John Velazquez T odd A. Pletcher 10-1
9 Game On Dude Mike Smith Bob Baffert 8-5
10 Will Take Charge Louis Saez D. Wayne Lukas 12-1---SECOND---
11 Ron the Greek Jose Lezcano William I. Mott 8-1---SCRATCH---
12 Flat Out Joel Rosario William I. Mott 12-1
Last edited by carole on Sat Nov 02, 2013 8:50 pm, edited 12 times in total.
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Summer Bird
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Location: NY

Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:23 pm

Looking forward to seeing how Artemis Agrotera and Mexikoma do in their races!
Izvestia
Posts: 4075
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:06 pm

Sweet Reason looks like the best of the bunch, Untapable is interesting but I'm not sure about her 56 days off.

This race is full of tough mares. The Rodeo Drive was a helluva race and I think one of those two mares (Tiz Flirtatious or Marketing Mix) is the one to beat.

This has got to be the best F & M Sprint field ever. I like Sweet Lulu and Dance to Bristol in here.

I'm rooting for the girls in this race, but this time I like Reneesgotzip. She's been freshened 2 months. Caracortado is interesting, 2nd race off the layoff.

One of the Baffert colts, why not? Tap It Rich.

If he hadn't have been hurt, Point of Entry would be the favourite. His numbers are by far the best of this field. If he needs a race, I'm leaning towards The Fugue. They have been pointing her to this race for awhile and she looks pretty darn solid.

So sad to lose Points Offthebench this week. Fast Bullet's last is a head scratcher. Justin Philip for the win!

Wise Dan.

Fort Larned has had an odd year. Game on Dude will be tested. Maybe 2 months will be what helps him to win this? I am going for the upset with Will Take Charge. Improving at the right time. And the race sets up for him. 2nd will be Game on Dude, to break Baffert's heart.
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ChampionCurlin
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Location: Florida

Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:37 pm

@CJ_Jennie
Cleburne out of @BreedersCup Juvenile with bucked shin, trainer Dale Romans confirms.
Kennedy
Posts: 1056
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:12 pm

Juvenile Fillies
I think Artemis Agrotera may have been a little bit fortunate to beat Sweet Reason in the Champagne but I suspect she'll beat her on the square this time. I think that these two stand above the rest in terms of talent but I was really impressed with the speed of Artemis in the Champagne. She was fast but she wasn't crazy and she seems very powerfully built. I think she'll be able to control this race from the front or just off it. Sweet Reason should come running again but I wonder if she won't flatten out a bit with two turns instead of improve. For third I'm going to throw She's a Tiger on there. I don't think she's a real stayer but I do think she has some talent and got exposed by an early move last time. With a more patient ride she could stick around for a piece and there is a good chance she'll be ignored.

Artemis Agrotera
Sweet Reason
She's a Tiger

Filly and Mare Turf
I think that this will be a very interesting contest. It feels like the kind of race where I am going with a certain idea which could turn out to be wrong and all my picks could completely bust but I'm going with my best guess. The stance I'm taking is that the pace will be slow, not an unpopular thought, but that it will be fast enough not to turn the last quarter into an all out sprint for the line. If the pace is too slow it'll play into the hands of the quicker horses like Dank, Emollient and Romantica but I'm hoping for a race where the speedier horses can take the late runners out of it. That makes Marketing Mix and Laughing the main dangers. I am sticking with Marketing Mix in this race despite the fact that she got out finished in her last by Tiz Flirtatious. I think she is rounding back into her best form and the race setup could be perfect. She is best poised to keep track on Laughing and I suspect that she can out finish her at 10f. I'm not too concerned about the Beverly D. I think it was just one of those days for her. She'll be back to her best hopefully in this spot. Laughing is a tough horse to get by and despite the fact that pace horses don't often do well in this race I think Laughing will give a very good account of herself. For third I'm throwing Tiz Flirtatious in there because of her consistency and love for the course. That means a shutout for the Europeans but I really don't think they're as good as advertised. Dank freaked in the Beverly D but I don't look for a repeat of that performance here. Romantica seems a bit weaker than the Europeans who have had success here in the past.

Marketing Mix
Laughing
Tiz Flirtatious

Filly and Mare Sprint
I had trouble with this race because it feels like you can't really trust anyone for the win slot. I ended up casting my lot with Groupie Doll hoping that she gets back to near her best. I think that near her best is all it will take to win. My figures show that this group is slightly behind what she faced last year. Dance to Bristol is obviously a horse with a huge chance but I feel like her ceiling is well exposed and it's good but not good enough for a top class performance. Groupie Doll is capable of that big effort and her recent works have shown some spark. She could fall flat at a relatively short price but I'm sticking with her. A horse I would like a lot more if there was some pace promised is Book Review. I've liked her for this race since the year began and I think she is well poised aside from the probable pace scenario. Book Review has class and is certainly a possible winner. A longshot I'd throw into the mix is Ismene. She might be the lone pace and the return to dirt may wake her up a bit.

Groupie Doll
Book Review
Ismene
Kennedy
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:15 pm

As a matter of interest I thought that I would once again post the top ranked KSR horse for each BC race.

I have only been able to apply the theory to the last 104 BC races but over that time the top ranked (fastest) horse has won 23% of the time.

Here are the top ranked horses for each race this year
Marathon - Worldly
Juvenile Turf - Aotearoa
Dirt Mile - Verrazano
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Testa Rossi
Distaff - Royal Delta
Juvenile Fillies - Sweet Reason
FM Turf - Dank
FM Sprint - Groupie Doll
Turf Sprint - Unbridled's Note
Juvenile - Mexikoma
Turf - Point of Entry
Sprint - Private Zone
Mile - Wise Dan
Classic - Game On Dude
Kennedy
Posts: 1056
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:19 pm

I also have a pet project for the Breeders' Cup called the 20/20 which is essentially a statistical profiling system.

A profile has been created for every race aside from the Marathon. Here are the perfect qualifiers below

Juvenile Turf - Aotearoa/Bashart/Bobby's Kitten/Outstrip/Poker Player
Dirt Mile - Golden Ticket/Pants On Fire/Verrazano
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Al Thakhira/Chriselliam/Clenor/My Conquestadory/Testa Rossi
Distaff - Princess of Sylmar/Royal Delta
Juvenile Fillies - Artemis Agrotera/Sweet Reason
FM Turf - Laughing/Marketing Mix/Tiz Flirtatious
FM Sprint - Dance to Bristol/Groupie Doll/Judy the Beauty/Sweet Lulu
Turf Sprint - Chips All In/Mizdirection/Unbridled's Note
Juvenile - Diamond Bachelor/Havana/Tap It Rich
Turf - Indy Point/Little Mike/Point of Entry/The Fugue
Sprint - Private Zone
Mile - No Qualifiers
Classic - Game On Dude/Flat Out/Fort Larned/Mucho Macho Man

39 Qualifiers over 12 races. The Mile has no perfect qualifiers this year.
Kennedy
Posts: 1056
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:54 pm

Turf Sprint
In it's short history i have come to love the turf sprint. It draws exciting fields and we usually get a good finish. When they run this race on the downhill course it always seems to favor the course specialists. On that file it seems hard to look past Mizdirection, Unbridled's Note, Chips All In, Boat Trip and Caracortado. I do think that the winner and perhaps the exacta will come from this group. In other races a high draw is seen as a bad thing but I actually think that it helps on this course. I'd much rather have a horse on the outside than on the rail fighting for his life. Of the course loving quintet I prefer Unbridled's Note. Asmussen has done well in this race and i think his last race set him up perfectly for a big effort on BC day. Chips All in is a bit more tactical than the rest of this group and will be hard to get past but with the pace I'm expecting I think the closers can do the job. Mizdirection would be higher on my list if it hadn't been so long since her last. Caracortado is a fantastic horse but I'm a little skeptical about taking him 2nd off that long layoff with the issues he's had.

Unbridled's Note
Chips All In
Mizdirection

Juvenile
I am looking for a bit of choas in this event. My figures show that this is the slowest field on paper since 2003 when Action This Day lit up the board. Strangely enough that day we also had a speedy eastern favorite drawn on the outside. I'm not suggesting that Havana will necessarily go the way of Cuvee but slow races often end up being won by slow horses rather than being dominated by the few fast ones. Tap it Rich has a big reputation but it's a really tough task to win a race like this off just one race. I prefer to go against him. I'm really just looking for a stranger in this race and the strangers I like are Diamond Bachelor, Mexikoma and Smarty's Echo. Diamond Bachelor has been a good one right from the start and his connections are very high on him. His breeding suggests that he might handle the dirt as well and he does have quite a bit of pace which I think bodes well. I'm willing to take the chance that he might just freak out. His trio of two turn races have likely given him plenty of bottom. Mexikoma ran a fantastic race to break his maiden and despite being in front for much of the race he does seem like a stamina type. He's got a great post if they want to sit near the front and save some ground. The plan may be to outstay the rest. Smarty's Echo is a bit of a stretch but I think he really might like the dirt. He hasn't run badly in any of his races and the price will certainly be right.

Diamond Bachelor
Mexikoma
Smarty's Echo

Turf
This is one race where I'll really be pulling for a horse as a fan as well as a handicapper. Point of Entry is my selection and I'm really hoping he can redeem himself after last year's loss. He has a tough task although I think Little Mike isn't as good this year. The layoff is the major question with POE. I think he can overcome the lack of recency. Shug rarely works his charges at 5f but POE has had a string of 4 of them to get them ready. Coupled with Shug's comments that this horse naturally returns to fitness physically and mentally. His layoff is actually not much longer than the break he had between last years BC and the showdown with Animal kingdom. Of course he didn't have an injury during that layoff but he has absolutely fantastic against Animal Kingdom. I think Point of Entry has something special and if he is able to show his best the Chad Brown pair don't really have a chance. Indy point is a horse that scares me. Mandella has a way with horses in the BC and Indy Point is a really talented one. I see him as the main threat. The Fugue could perhaps win this race but she isn't quite as scary as some make her out to be. Even with the trip she would have been hard pressed to win the FM Turf last year. I'm not sure anyone would back Zagora against Point of Entry and Little Mike. The Fugue may have improved a bit this year but her connections blamed the course last year and I'm not sure that those concerns will go away just because the race is longer. The turns are tight, the stretch is short and her competition will be in full flight as they turn for home. I'm not sure that this field will be any easier to weave through. I don't like Little Mike at all and I think the Ramsey pair are only good enough to fill the minor places.

Point of Entry
Indy Point
The Fugue
Kennedy
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Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:27 pm

Sprint
I like the favorite Private Zone in this race but with the way the Sprint division has been all year it would not shock me if a real outsider was able to upset this field. I think Private Zone should be able to carry his speed all the way on this track but the Sprint has a way of bringing odd horses to the fore. Private Zone seems to be in a zone right now. he's working like a maniac and seems to have shaken off that seconditis that had plagued him prior to Dubai. He's got a great post as well. Secret Circle may be the most talented horse in the race and I think he'll give a good account of himself but it's tough to come back quickly after such a big race when you've been off for a year and half. If this race was in another month I think he'd be my pick. It's great to see him back on the track. For the minor places I think you could go very deep but I think that Justin Phillip should run a decent race. He has been so good all year long he deserves a good showing on the big day. I would also use horses like Bahamian Squall, Laugh Track and Wine Police in a super.

Private Zone
Secret Circle
Justin Phillip

Mile
I think the big question for everyone in this race is what to do with Wise Dan. For some its obvious you back him, single him, use him in every ticket possible and move on to the Classic. It's certainly a legitimate strategy but I'm one that thinks he just might get beaten. He hasn't seemed to be quite as bright in his works and the odds that he works out the same perfect trip he got last year seem pretty slim. I'm looking for someone to beat him. I'm not a big fan of Olympic Glory, I think his bid is going to be a disaster. I can't really get behind Za approval. He has been solid but second class. Silver Max is a dangerous horse when he gets in a groove but he's been going hard since March and I prefer a fresher challenge in the Mile. The horse I am going to use against Wise Dan is Obviously. I think he is a first rate miler when he is at his best and despite poor efforts in his last two I think his works show that he is ready to get back to his best. Pace is going to be a question mark for Obviously because Bright Thought and Silver Max and likely going to be running hard early on but I think Obviously is a faster horse and a classier horse. I think he can shake those two off and still have something left to see out the short stretch. it'll take a lifetime best effort but I think he is up to it. Wise Dan will be in close pursuit of course and if the pace gets too crazy I think it'll play into his hands. As an oddball play I like Silentio rather than the usual alternatives No Jet Lag and He Be Fire N Ice. Silentio is a little better than he looks and i think he is best suited to making one run from off the pace. He'll likely be forced into doing that in this race and it should bring a good effort out of him.

Obviously
Wise Dan
Silentio
Kennedy
Posts: 1056
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:44 pm

Classic
I thought I might not do any written analysis for the Classic because there is a good chance I'll be making up my mind as they load in the gate. Other than the Marathon no race has me as confused. With the Marathon it's a case of not being sure if any horse could win. With the Classic my issue is that so many horses could win I can't really decide whose turn it will be. My not so short list is Game on Dude, Flat Out, Fort Larned, Palace Malice and Mucho Macho Man. I feel pretty confident that the winner will be one of those 5 but that each could win at least once if not twice if they ran it 10 times. Flat Out is perhaps the least likely winner considering his astonishing 1 for 15 record away from Belmont since Dec of 2010. But by the same token he is capable of some very big efforts and he's riding a 2 race losing streak. I keep coming back to Palace Malice. His figures are a bit light but he just seems to be getting better every time he runs and 10f is a good distance for him. Game on Dude is the horse to beat but for a horse who wins so often his record is not as good when he is facing really good shippers. This group is a whole lot more testing than Clubhouse Ride and Kettle Corn. Baffert also has a pretty poor BC record in any race that isn't the Sprint or for Juveniles. Mucho Macho Man is capable of some very big races but I still can't believe he didn't win last year. He had Fort Larned dead to rights and just stopped. It's a bad habit he has and it's hard to make a case for him getting to the front earlier. Fort Larned is terrific on his day but unstable this year. He just doesn't seem good enough to win this race twice on class yet when you really look at this race you have to acknowledge that he could easily win. All of the stars in the race seems brilliant but beatable. It'll be tough to choose between them but I think I feel the best about Palace Malice, Mucho Macho Man and Game On Dude.

Palace Malice
Mucho Macho Man
Game on Dude
Tessablue
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 9:43 pm

Since we can only work off of what we know, there are two important observations from today that have caused me to reevaluate my choices for tomorrow. Of note, every single dirt winner outside of the Marathon:

A) Was within 1 1/2 lengths at the quarter and the half.

B) Broke from either the outside post or the post just inside it.

I'm hoping the betting public fixates on that first point and overlooks the second. A I expected, B I did not. After last year, I was thinking rail speed all the way but it looks like the rail is actually less kind to speed than the 3-4 path. Note that London Bridge made a big wide run, after spending most of the race "well off the inside," avoiding the worst of the nasty kickback. Assuming this holds tomorrow (and I won't be able to find out until the BC starts, I've got a parade to attend), here are the dirt picks:


Juvenile Fillies: I like Sweet Reason and was impressed by her last race, but her last work was simply miserable and I wonder if she's a step below her best right now. Was never a believer in She's a Tiger but her last race, though fairly slow, showed me that she can carry that speed. If the racecourse helps her carry it a little further, she'll be tough to beat with the trip she's likely to get. Scandalous Act is a tough one to figure because it's hard to get a gauge on her talent- I think she'll either hit the board or absolutely wilt in the stretch, but right now I'm leaning towards the former. Artemis Agrotera has a tough draw but I think her class and tactical speed will work to her advantage here.

1) She's a Tiger 2) Artemis Agrotera 3) Scandalous Act

F&M Sprint: I liked Sweet Lulu. Now I loooove Sweet Lulu. Classy outside speed and some decent value, what's not to love? Judy the Beauty is incapable of running a poor race, I can't leave out a mare who has never run off the board in 12 career starts. Think Teddy's Promise is dangerous as well- loves this course, likes this distance and figure to get a nice stalking trip. I love Groupie Doll, but I think she's a tier below where she was last year and she'll be at a terrible price.

1) Sweet Lulu 2) Judy the Beauty 3) Teddy's Promise

Juvy: Previously, I loved Diamond Bachelor and felt iffy about Havana. Now I love both of them. Now leaning Havana because he is a seriously talented colt and I think he'll get a better trip, stalking outside of Diamond Bachelor as the two go at it early. As for Diamond Bachelor, he just looks like a quality colt. Between his works and his pedigree, I have no real worries about the dirt. An intriguing longshot in here is Medal Count- I think he'll like the distance and the switch back to dirt, and if there's anyone I trust with a crazy longshot, it's Dale Romans.

1) Havana 2) Diamond Bachelor 3) Medal Count

Sprint: This is a tough one. Trinniberg has those two qualities I mentioned earlier- speed and an outside post (not to mention he was the epitome of a "I can't believe I missed him" winner last year). But he's looked like a shadow of his old self this season and I just don't think I can trust him beyond inclusion in a few exotics. Private Zone looks like the one to beat in here- he's had some great efforts over this track, he's going to run his eyeballs out no matter what, and he's very very fast. But he isn't a win machine, and I think he's very beatable. One horse I think is flying under the radar is Gentleman's Bet- a single (actually pretty good) off-the-board effort on synth, and everyone has forgotten how he ran Delaunay into the ground twice earlier this year. Very fast and doesn't need to be in front- watch out. There are a lot of great options for filling out the tri but I kind of like Sum of the Parts, who ran sneaky-good in this race last year at a big price on a pretty similar surface.

1) Gentlemen's Bet 2) Private Zone 3) Sum of the Parts

Classic: As a disclaimer, I have Beholder in a double with Moreno here. Prior to today I absolutely loved Moreno in this race. I saw him getting an ideal trip- on the rail, in the lead setting a quick but sensible pace as Fort Larned and MMM lay right off of him. In all their haste to dislike the trainer, I think people forget that Moreno is a seriously nice horse- he's fast, he's game, he's 4-1-2-1 in graded stakes, he has a good effort at 10f and he absolutely loves a speedy track. Now I don't feel so confident, and my desire to bet him will depend quite a bit on how the rail plays tomorrow. Still can't leave a horse like him off my tickets. Besides Moreno, this race is kind of a muddled mess for me. I like Mucho Macho Man based on his running style and love for the track, but I've always found him inscrutable and hard to predict. Same goes for Fort Larned- I could see a repeat of last year or I could see them both finishing off the board. Right now I think MMM is the better of the two. Declaration of War is a fascinating horse- his connections are very confident, he's got the pedigree, and I think he'll be up closer than people expect. But who am I kidding, this race is impossible.

1) Mucho Macho Man 2) Moreno 3) Declaration of War (??)

Some notes about other Classic horses: I don't trust Game on Dude. Maybe it's because I thought he was unbeatable last year, but I dislike the fact that he has been handed an easy lead in virtually all of his starts this year. I don't know how he'll respond when faced with quality speed early in this race, and I don't really like the layoff either. Like most of the others, I won't be surprised by a win or a huge loss. Palace Malice is an awfully nice horse, but something tells me he won't fire here- call it intuition or the result of a long, tough campaign. Will Take Charge is tough to look past, but I think the winner of this race will be in front at the top of the stretch, and he's not going to be there barring a style change. Flat Out ran a pretty decent race here last year, but I think he may have lost a step.
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Oldowan
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Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:19 pm

I am SO with you on Sweet Lulu. Also, Lulu is my dog's name. So....vibes?

Juvenile Fillies: She's a Tiger, Sweet Reason, Untapable
F&M Turf: Laughing, Marketing Mix
F&M Sprint: Sweet Lulu
Turf Sprint: Mizdirection, Caracortado
Juvenile: Havana
Turf: I really have no idea. Point of Entry--will he come back the same? The Fugue looks good, Little Mike too, but how often does a repeat really happen?
Sprint: Secret Circle, Trinniberg, Justin Phillip
Mile: Wise Dan
Classic: Palace Malice, Game On Dude, Mucho Macho Man, and my heart says Paynter, and I will run down the street screaming if so, but I can't put money on it.
second_glance
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Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:42 am

Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:24 pm

FWIW, Ray Paulick reports they scraped the track tonight, and then turned on sprinklers on at least parts of the track.
mimi6920
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:39 pm

Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:25 pm

Wouldn't want to have the track fair and prepared BEFORE the Breeders' Cup. LOL
Tessablue
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Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm

Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:36 pm

second_glance wrote:FWIW, Ray Paulick reports they scraped the track tonight, and then turned on sprinklers on at least parts of the track.
I was under the impression that scraping and watering made a track faster, but I'm certainly not an expert. Pretty frustrating to have to wait until the day of the races to handicap, and I'll be that's one reason why the multi-race pools were so low today. Maybe the rail will be the place to be tomorrow, but who knows? It definitely wasn't today.

All things considered, Golden Ticket ran a pretty fantastic race.
Horsebagger
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:20 pm

Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:41 pm

second_glance wrote:FWIW, Ray Paulick reports they scraped the track tonight, and then turned on sprinklers on at least parts of the track.
uh oh. Another discussion about sprinkler water duration coming?
second_glance
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Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:42 am

Sat Nov 02, 2013 10:59 am

According to folks at the track, maintenance at SA just harrowed the track, then watered it.

Pat Cummings ‏@DubaiRaceNight 1m
Call me crazy, but I don't recall seeing SA water the dirt track after it's been harrowed...but that just happened at 756am
peeptoad
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Sat Nov 02, 2013 12:55 pm

my top 3 (in order) for each race... subject to change at any second of course:

Juvenile Fillies
#1 Artemis Agrotera- 2 turns the question, but has early speed, and has reportedly looked great in the mornings training for this.
#7 Untapable- 2 turn win at G2 level, needs slight improvement, hopefully can get a nice stalking trip
#8 Scandalous Act- the longshot choice. Distance no problem, and is coming off the deeper CRC course. Class level the main question.
(will still use Sweet Reason in here, but she is not among my top 3 considering the likely price and her late running style)

FM Turf
#2 Romantica- loving that overseas firm turf form. Class level is there, distance is ideal.
#6 Marketing Mix- solid, honest mare should put in a good run
#7 Laughing- may get an ideal pace setup- the distance is her absolute limit
(also like Dank and Tiz Flirtatious- not quite sure how I am going to bet this one yet)

FM Sprint
#12 Sweet Lulu- love her on the cutback and may get a pace advantage from the 12-hole
#7 Summer Applause- another running on the cutback. Has won at the distance; possibly better on synth, but worth a chance imo.
#11 Groupie Doll- not in the same form as last year, but still probably the one to beat
(I like Book Review, but her ceiling is pretty clear & she will have to fire against a possible speed bias. Dance To Bristol may be over the top, but can't ignore her completely. Groupie Doll will likely get hammered- I think this is pretty wide open this year actually)

Turf Sprint
#6 Boat Trip- solid off good 2nd in Eddie D
#7 Tightend Touchdown- longshot could surprise
#12 Mizdirection- reigning queen comes of a shorter layoff than last year. Impeccable record on the course.
(The most wide open race on the card imo. I also like Unbridleds Note, Chips All In, and Spring to the Sky at a price)

Juvenile
#12 Diamond Bachelor- price should be decent and he has won stakes around 2 turns. He's got early speed; can't see why he wouldn't run on dirt
#13 Havana- good horse, bad price
#11 Medal Count- picks up the pieces?
(aside from 2003 this is one of the weaker renditions of this race in recent memory, though my memory is probably selective. May also use Mexikoma and Smartys Echo).

Turf
#7 The Fugue- should be the clear choice
#4 Little Mike- if they let him go early watch out. He seems to be over the Dubai debacle.
#8 Point of Entry- layoff is the question
(Big Blue Kitten and Indy Point are the others to consider imo)

Sprint
#7 Private Zone- speed of the speed?
#3 Gentlemens Bet- like the synth- dirt angle and he's been training very well for this
#6 Bahamian Squall- can't put my finger on it, but a mouse says to use this one. He seems to hang around at the end of most races
(Secret Circle is interesting coming off one prep, but could be good enough. Justin Philip is a more obvious alternative, but not sure I trust him at this track)

Mile
#8 Wise Dan- reigning HOY is still the best on paper.
#1 No Jet Lag- he and 'Ice both have nice closing kicks. Not the strongest contingent of Euros shipped for this. Could be a rare NA sweep.
#7 He Be Fire n Ice
(also consider Obviously if he bounces back and Silentio is a fairly consistent type under the conditions)

Classic
#9 Game On Dude- he either wins or is nowhere (most likely). If he runs his race all others are running for second
#5 Declaration of War- I actually think this horse has a huge chance if he handles the dirt.
#8 Palace Malice- the best of the 3yos, can stalk if he breaks well. Should be there at the end
(this is a tough race to handicap imo this year- I also plan on using Mucho Macho Man and Fort Larned)
Blue Jeans
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Sat Nov 02, 2013 1:03 pm

Hope my picks do better today than yesterday! :cry:

If Wise Dan wins his race, then I'm happy ... regardless!

Going with Mucho Macho Man for the Classic win ... Game On Dude second ... Palace Malice third ... Fort Larned fourth.

Anxious to see Declaration of War try for one of the above. A very safe trip for all.
Never approach a bull from the front, a horse from the rear or a fool from any direction. ~ Cowboy saying

There is something about riding down the street on a prancing horse that makes you feel like something, even when you ain't a thing. ~ Will Rogers
BaroqueAgain1
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Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Sat Nov 02, 2013 2:45 pm

Fridays' results seem to indicate that the horses that have worked well over the surface are doing well. With that in mind, the hosts on TVG's The Works were effusive about Secret Compass' work and, to my amateur eye, she moved like silk over the track...really fast silk.
So, I guess I like Secret Compass in the Juv. Fillies.
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