2015 Belmont Stakes News & Notes

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dustino140
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Sat May 30, 2015 7:56 pm

Macaroni wrote:
dustino140 wrote:
Most people should realize that the fastest two races of American Pharoah's career, according to both DRF and Bris, were run on a fast track (KY and ARK Derbies). Actually, Bris thinks it's the Del Mar Futurity, but we can ignore that due to the synthetic factor. If I'm an American Pharoah fan, I actually want a fast track. I think a wet track at Belmont actually results in more potential issues for the favorite than a fast track does.

FWIW, Materiality also skipped over a sloppy track in his debut at Gulfstream and Frosted and Madefromlucky have pedigrees that stand out to me in the mud.
Isn't that naturally going to be the case, though, since a fast track is in essence faster than a sloppy track? (so obviously his times over a fast track will be faster than his times over a the slop)
I don't think so. I'm not completely versed on the genetic makeup of the figures, but I believe the day's variant(s) and other times on the day would account for the slower times due to the condition of the track. Granted the Preakness figure is probably a particularly muddy one (pun intended) to develop.

I guess my point is that, on paper, American Pharoah isn't a faster horse in the mud than he is on the fast track, however, IMO, the mud can create more issues than a fast track can.
Macaroni
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Sat May 30, 2015 8:13 pm

dustino140 wrote:
Macaroni wrote:
dustino140 wrote:
Most people should realize that the fastest two races of American Pharoah's career, according to both DRF and Bris, were run on a fast track (KY and ARK Derbies). Actually, Bris thinks it's the Del Mar Futurity, but we can ignore that due to the synthetic factor. If I'm an American Pharoah fan, I actually want a fast track. I think a wet track at Belmont actually results in more potential issues for the favorite than a fast track does.

FWIW, Materiality also skipped over a sloppy track in his debut at Gulfstream and Frosted and Madefromlucky have pedigrees that stand out to me in the mud.
Isn't that naturally going to be the case, though, since a fast track is in essence faster than a sloppy track? (so obviously his times over a fast track will be faster than his times over a the slop)
I don't think so. I'm not completely versed on the genetic makeup of the figures, but I believe the day's variant(s) and other times on the day would account for the slower times due to the condition of the track. Granted the Preakness figure is probably a particularly muddy one (pun intended) to develop.

I guess my point is that, on paper, American Pharoah isn't a faster horse in the mud than he is on the fast track, however, IMO, the mud can create more issues than a fast track can.
Oh I never wanted it to rain because I figured AP was faster in slop, I just figured it would knock out some of the competition for him and give him a leg up. But I know that's crazy because as a horse racing fan, I should want a fair race for all. This rain thing is just my love for AP/desire to see a TC in my lifetime talking.
Admin
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Sun May 31, 2015 10:47 am

We've had an awful lot of horses who have won the first two. If not this year, we'll all get that chance if a lifetime next year or the next.
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Kay16
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Sun May 31, 2015 11:59 am

What's with the growing circle of people liking Madefromlucky? I think his Peter Pan win made some forget about the Ark Derby. I guess if you think the 1 1/2 and Belmont track will help move him up 10 lengths or Pharoah backward that much?
swale1984
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Sun May 31, 2015 1:59 pm

Kay16 wrote:What's with the growing circle of people liking Madefromlucky? I think his Peter Pan win made some forget about the Ark Derby. I guess if you think the 1 1/2 and Belmont track will help move him up 10 lengths or Pharoah backward that much?

On my chart, he's 2nd. His pedigree suggests he'd like the longer distance and AP could be a bit weakened by the rigors of the trail. I can see a case where Materiality goes with AP and MadefromLucky, Mubtaahij, Frosted, or Carpe Diem get the win because of the duel up front.
Macaroni
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Sun May 31, 2015 2:11 pm

Admin wrote:We've had an awful lot of horses who have won the first two. If not this year, we'll all get that chance if a lifetime next year or the next.
lol yes there is no doubt in my mind we will see many more Derby/Preakness winners. My point is that I want to see AP be the one to end the drought. I like him a ton and think he's one of the most worthy horses to come along in years.
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CoronadosQuest
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Sun May 31, 2015 2:50 pm

Macaroni wrote:
Admin wrote:We've had an awful lot of horses who have won the first two. If not this year, we'll all get that chance if a lifetime next year or the next.
lol yes there is no doubt in my mind we will see many more Derby/Preakness winners. My point is that I want to see AP be the one to end the drought. I like him a ton and think he's one of the most worthy horses to come along in years.
I 100% agree with you. We haven't had a 2yo Champion vying for the Triple Crown in a very long time! I love the fact that he isn't just a lucky horse hitting his best stride at the right time. He is just a really good horse!
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larrythek
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Sun May 31, 2015 4:22 pm

Frosted and American Pharoah had nearly identical trips in the Derby the last 1/2 Mile. From the overhead I was able to count strides per 1/16 and distance traveled which was almost identical for both horses. For the entire race Frosted took the most feet to complete the race at a whopping 6730 and American Pharoah 2nd most in a nearly identical 6723 Feet. In the last 3/8 mile Frosted kept a sustained drive, but never even passes Dortmund for 3rd ,,,even after the wire. As freaky as American Pharoah is with a huge long stride that does not shorten with distance so far from what I counted----Frosted has been a superior horse since that minor throat procedure which was done in the stable..With that being said, I think you are looking at a 7/10 price on American Pharoah. There is nickel breakage in New York so a horse can pay $3.30 ,,$3.50 ,$3.70 to win... Frosted I believe will be the heavy 2nd choice---possibly below 3-1....FROSTED WORK: Frosted just dusted probable Met Mile entrant and barnmate Tamarkuz-- an outstanding 5 Year Old Euro Miler who has won 4 straight at Meydan, 2 Group 3s and a Group 2 and 4 straight stakes overall this year.. In American Pharoahs last work by Martin Garcia, he got off the horse and told Baffert something to the affect that he would not lose the way he worked (at Churchill 5/26)..He still has 1 work left before shipping to Belmont,,,But don't ask me, ask Hannah, she gets it straight from her horses mouth. Mubtaahij is loaded with Stamina but he should have had lasix in a US prep race and 2nd race on lasix would have been the Derby..He still ran decently enough to consider him in the exotics..Lots of dam side stamina from all the Belmont Horses. The 3rd and 4 place finishers will probably come from the group who do not get involved with the frontrunners---Tale Of Verve for sure is 1 of them...
Matt Converse wrote:
peeptoad wrote:Frosted really seems to be coming into this race nicely... his last work was excellent and his gallop out time for 5f and 6f was solid. I think if he doesn't run well it's likely because of the distance though.
Frosted is one of the few I give any chance. His best races were at 9f and 10f, he was finishing better than most in the Derby and comes in off five weeks rest. If Pharoah doesn't relish 12f I could see Frosted pulling a Birdstone. But my gut still says American Pharoah wins this easily.
Last edited by larrythek on Sun May 31, 2015 5:13 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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dustino140
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Kay16 wrote:What's with the growing circle of people liking Madefromlucky? I think his Peter Pan win made some forget about the Ark Derby. I guess if you think the 1 1/2 and Belmont track will help move him up 10 lengths or Pharoah backward that much?
Well, yes, I would say that good recent performances do make people forget about previous not so good ones ;). That's human nature. I'm not high on Madefromlucky, but he has a positive experience over the track to his credit and there is a chance he's going to like 12f. His genetics should, conceivably, help. I don't think he has what it takes to bridge the gap on American Pharoah, but at 20/1, I wouldn't blame somebody for wanting to include him in their wagers and I'll probably use him in some underneath spots.

The Belmont is just a weird race. Not many people bet Ruler On Ice (25/1), Sarava (70/1), Birdstone (36/1), Da' Tara (38/1) or Commendable (18/1) to win since 2000, and not many people thought Anak Nakal (34/1), Commissioner (28/1), Medal Count (24/1), Atigun (20/1), Nolan's Cat (20/1) or Royal Assault (27/1) would run in the Trifecta at 20/1 or higher, but they all did.
Kay16
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Sun May 31, 2015 6:29 pm

dustino140 wrote:
Well, yes, I would say that good recent performances do make people forget about previous not so good ones ;). That's human nature. I'm not high on Madefromlucky, but he has a positive experience over the track to his credit and there is a chance he's going to like 12f. His genetics should, conceivably, help. I don't think he has what it takes to bridge the gap on American Pharoah, but at 20/1, I wouldn't blame somebody for wanting to include him in their wagers and I'll probably use him in some underneath spots.

The Belmont is just a weird race. Not many people bet Ruler On Ice (25/1), Sarava (70/1), Birdstone (36/1), Da' Tara (38/1) or Commendable (18/1) to win since 2000, and not many people thought Anak Nakal (34/1), Commissioner (28/1), Medal Count (24/1), Atigun (20/1), Nolan's Cat (20/1) or Royal Assault (27/1) would run in the Trifecta at 20/1 or higher, but they all did.
Fair points.
Kay16
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Sun May 31, 2015 6:31 pm

On another note this was exciting to watch :)


https://youtu.be/P6Q7iizyqCQ
Macaroni
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Sun May 31, 2015 9:21 pm

Kay16 wrote:On another note this was exciting to watch :)


https://youtu.be/P6Q7iizyqCQ
Yowza, that was intense. Not gonna lie, made me a bit emotional...(though really, that'll happen any time you show me Smarty's 2004 loss. Still can't handle watching that)

On another note: I can't even begin to imagine how incredible it must have been to see Secretariat do what he did after a 26-year TC drought.
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Diver52
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Sun May 31, 2015 10:45 pm

I can tell you. :) I was in my dorm room screaming and crying. Partly seeing a TC winner, partly realizing I would never see anything like it again. (And of course I haven't.)
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larrythek
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Sun May 31, 2015 11:27 pm

American Pharoah has according to Baffert gained weight since the Preakness. He will have his final work tomorrow (Monday) at Churchill and ship Tuesday to Belmont...Victor Espinoza is just 2 for 62 in his career starts at Belmont Park. War Emblem and California Chrome were simply not his fault. Last year, California Chrome lost 30-40 LBS leading up to the race and did not look or act like a horse with a lot of energy when they got on the track...A number of people including Dustin liked Tonalist 9-1 and Constitution 28-1 as did I and if you read my "Wagering Forum Thread" the only horse that prevented me from a huge day was Medal Count coming in the TOP 4 (he finishd 3rd) and needing California Chrome finishing in the top 3....As it was I had wagers on Tonalist, Commissioner, the $348 Exacta a number of times. I hit the P4 a few times..I had a sizeable Place Wager On Tonalist $9.60 ...Medal Count / Chrome cost me 20 Tri, 10 Super Tickets..

WEATHER: There is a long block of 7-9 straight days that will have rain in the NY Metro area. It could begin as early as Saturday or as late as Monday. Belmont Day is expected to be the warmest day o the year--80-81...

larrythek wrote:Frosted and American Pharoah had nearly identical trips in the Derby the last 1/2 Mile. From the overhead I was able to count strides per 1/16 and distance traveled which was almost identical for both horses. For the entire race Frosted took the most feet to complete the race at a whopping 6730 and American Pharoah 2nd most in a nearly identical 6723 Feet. In the last 3/8 mile Frosted kept a sustained drive, but never even passes Dortmund for 3rd ,,,even after the wire. As freaky as American Pharoah is with a huge long stride that does not shorten with distance so far from what I counted----Frosted has been a superior horse since that minor throat procedure which was done in the stable..With that being said, I think you are looking at a 7/10 price on American Pharoah. There is nickel breakage in New York so a horse can pay $3.30 ,,$3.50 ,$3.70 to win... Frosted I believe will be the heavy 2nd choice---possibly below 3-1....FROSTED WORK: Frosted just dusted probable Met Mile entrant and barnmate Tamarkuz-- an outstanding 5 Year Old Euro Miler who has won 4 straight at Meydan, 2 Group 3s and a Group 2 and 4 straight stakes overall this year.. In American Pharoahs last work by Martin Garcia, he got off the horse and told Baffert something to the affect that he would not lose the way he worked (at Churchill 5/26)..He still has 1 work left before shipping to Belmont,,,But don't ask me, ask Hannah, she gets it straight from her horses mouth. Mubtaahij is loaded with Stamina but he should have had lasix in a US prep race and 2nd race on lasix would have been the Derby..He still ran decently enough to consider him in the exotics..Lots of dam side stamina from all the Belmont Horses. The 3rd and 4 place finishers will probably come from the group who do not get involved with the frontrunners---Tale Of Verve for sure is 1 of them...
Matt Converse wrote:
peeptoad wrote:Frosted really seems to be coming into this race nicely... his last work was excellent and his gallop out time for 5f and 6f was solid. I think if he doesn't run well it's likely because of the distance though.
Frosted is one of the few I give any chance. His best races were at 9f and 10f, he was finishing better than most in the Derby and comes in off five weeks rest. If Pharoah doesn't relish 12f I could see Frosted pulling a Birdstone. But my gut still says American Pharoah wins this easily.
PJMIII
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Mon Jun 01, 2015 7:21 am

Pletcher discusses past Belmont losses, Festival runners

Trainer Todd Pletcher said his Belmont S. (G1) contenders -- Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway), Madefromlucky (Lookin at Lucky) and Materiality (Afleet Alex) -- walked the shedrow Sunday morning. This is typical for Pletcher horses who breezed two days prior. The day after the work, they all jogged on the track.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editoria ... i?id=49234
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serenassong
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Mon Jun 01, 2015 7:56 am

I'm getting more and more excited about Frosted, starting to really like this horse.
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tcw
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Mon Jun 01, 2015 9:03 am

WOW! That was the word from Mike Welsch after watching American Pharoah's final Belmont work:

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/16015
Macaroni
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Mon Jun 01, 2015 9:41 am

Video of AP's workout from this morning:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oor5Fu2RSu8

13, 25, 36.60, 48.60, 1:00.20, galloped out in 1:13, 1:26, 1:39.60
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Insane Crazy
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Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:02 am

Friend of mine made this (American Pharoah heavy) Belmont Stakes promo video to prepare for Saturday. This combined with the workout leaves me uncertain how I will handle this next week!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8DOdG3b8Nw
Not a wholesome trottin' race, no, but a race where they sit down right on the horse!
Like to see some stuck-up jockey boy sittin' on Dan Patch? Make your blood boil? Well, I should say!
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Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:32 am

Kenny McPeek ‏@KennyMcPeek
The Truth Or Else is Not being entered into Belmont. Filling in ankle. Minor but everything happens for a reason. Good Luck to AP!
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