Superfecta.......anyone?

Tessablue
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Thu Apr 23, 2015 10:02 am

Hitting the Derby super is one of my life goals and I dream about it every year. I (almost unfortunately) hit a Preakness super in my second year of TC betting and thus spent a few years thinking "how hard can it be?" Came really close last year (thanks, Commanding Curve) but man, the Derby is something else. These are my preliminary thoughts:

Mubtaahij (will likely be my first-ever big win bet in the Derby and I'm keying him all over the place, fight me)
Frosted (think he is sort of like I'll Have Another in that if he runs really well at 15-1 we'll all be like "oh yeah, of course.")
International Star (I am not letting this horse ruin my exotics, no way)
A Baffert (50/50 on which one)
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pointgivenfan
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Thu Apr 23, 2015 10:18 am

Tessablue wrote:Hitting the Derby super is one of my life goals and I dream about it every year. I (almost unfortunately) hit a Preakness super in my second year of TC betting and thus spent a few years thinking "how hard can it be?" Came really close last year (thanks, Commanding Curve) but man, the Derby is something else. These are my preliminary thoughts:

Mubtaahij (will likely be my first-ever big win bet in the Derby and I'm keying him all over the place, fight me)
Frosted (think he is sort of like I'll Have Another in that if he runs really well at 15-1 we'll all be like "oh yeah, of course.")
International Star (I am not letting this horse ruin my exotics, no way)
A Baffert (50/50 on which one)
As far as I can tell you never posted that Santa Anita Derby thread, so yeah, I'll fight you.
"I am the man who with the utmost daring discovered what had been discovered before." - G.K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy.
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dustino140
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Thu Apr 23, 2015 10:22 am

Somnambulist wrote:This is literally my favorite way to piss money away. I see it as the ultimate challenge. My two biggest scores have come from supers (probably more dumb luck than actual prowess) so I just feel inherently biased towards them. Came close in 2011 - nevermind almost doesn't count. My ex wanted to include him because of his name and we were at a Cinco de Mayo party, but I said no. How did I have the fourth place horse that year but not include IHA.

Oh, right. I let Dustin talk me out of him. :?

Even if it's a $1 super playing a few tickets shouldn't be that bad. I figure starting to play this bet yearly at 21 that I might hit before I die...
I didn't want to put that money into your ex's bank account. You're welcome.
Tessablue
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Thu Apr 23, 2015 10:44 am

pointgivenfan wrote:
Tessablue wrote:Hitting the Derby super is one of my life goals and I dream about it every year. I (almost unfortunately) hit a Preakness super in my second year of TC betting and thus spent a few years thinking "how hard can it be?" Came really close last year (thanks, Commanding Curve) but man, the Derby is something else. These are my preliminary thoughts:

Mubtaahij (will likely be my first-ever big win bet in the Derby and I'm keying him all over the place, fight me)
Frosted (think he is sort of like I'll Have Another in that if he runs really well at 15-1 we'll all be like "oh yeah, of course.")
International Star (I am not letting this horse ruin my exotics, no way)
A Baffert (50/50 on which one)
As far as I can tell you never posted that Santa Anita Derby thread, so yeah, I'll fight you.
Ohhh no! I wrote half of it out, got very distracted by real life work, then figured nobody would notice if I didn't post it and kind of forgot about it. Sorry, time allowing I'll add something to Kennedy's thread!
peeptoad
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Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:51 pm

Tessablue wrote: A Baffert (50/50 on which one)
Be interested to see which one you use... I'm about 70-30 in favor of Pharoah right now.
stark
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Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:02 am

Will the super pay over/under $1500 for a buck?

If you think it will pay over that, can you logically have both Bafferts on your ticket or do you need to take a stand and only have one of 'em.

Does it matter any to you who Bob decides to sit with, sure he can saddle both horses but which box seat will he pick???

If you think it's going to be a life-changing kind of payday, let's say $20,000 or so, will you put your bombers on top or is the 2-3-4 hole good enough to still collect the extra large?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Ballerina
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Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:11 am

OK, stark. Thanks for the lecture. What are your 4 horses right now? You can change your mind up until they load into the gate.
stark
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Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:21 am

Ballerina wrote:OK, stark. Thanks for the lecture. What are your 4 horses right now? You can change your mind up until they load into the gate.
Lecture?

For betting purposes only.....I'm tossing AP (he might make the 4th spot only).

Will use both Dortmund and Firing Line on top.

ticket will probably look like this...2x3x6x7 = $64

Good luck, enjoy the show!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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dustino140
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Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:35 am

Some Superfecta facts from Xpressbet's Derby Wager Guide (http://www.xpressbet.com/Bet-the-Kentucky-Derby) -

Since 1996 (For $1)
Average: $90,367.34
High: $864,253.50 (Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex-Don't Get Mad; 2005)
Low: $350.00 (Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit-Free House-Pulpit; 1997)
Notable: 13 of 19 all-time $1 Superfectas have paid over $24,000.

* The Street Sense - Hard Spun - Curlin - Imawildandcrazyguy Superfecta in 2007 paid $14,500 for $1. In hindsight, that feels like it should've been very hittable.
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Ballerina
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Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:44 am

stark wrote:
Ballerina wrote:OK, stark. Thanks for the lecture. What are your 4 horses right now? You can change your mind up until they load into the gate.
Lecture?

For betting purposes only.....I'm tossing AP (he might make the 4th spot only).

Will use both Dortmund and Firing Line on top.

ticket will probably look like this...2x3x6x7 = $64

Good luck, enjoy the show!
Well, I've got the same 2, but I'm boxing my 4 picks using AP and Carpe Diem. $1 SF box cost $24, It's affordable if I lose. Sometimes, it's not about how much money I win - it's a shot at being right. I've never won a Derby SF - came close three times with 3 horses hitting the board and the 4th horse coming in 5th. I enjoyed those times even though it was a loss.

It should be one of the most interesting Derbys in a very long time.
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Life At Zen
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Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:22 pm

Dortmund
International Star
Keen Ice
American Pharoah
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But only once. ~Joe Hirsch
Kay16
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Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:04 pm

I'm with those who are really having a hard time seeing past the favorites. I think this Derby could have 3-4 dominantly good horses and maybe even 1 very dominant. But it's the Derby so you gotta mix it up a little right?

This.

American Pharoah
Carpe Diem
Dortmund
Firing Line

Or this.

American Pharoah
Carpe Diem
Bolo
Mr. Z/Danzig Moon

I feel like you can never count out the good turf horse to do well over the CD track in the Derby and Bolo has the breeding to run all day.

Call me crazy for throwing Mr. Z in there. He's either going to run way up the track or he's going to bring his usual run and pick up a piece as he almost always has. He's run 12 times and worse than 3rd only 3 (5th, 5th, and 9th). Two of those you could probably toss. He's gotten close to beating Dortmund and Firing Line, and has placed well against many that are going to be in this Derby field. His breeding with a sire who produced a Derby winner, by A.P. Indy and on the bottom a descendent of Secretariat through his great grandma Terlingua, 1 1/4 might be doable. I guess I'm saying if you want some serious value, throw a little money at him somehow. Why not? ;) It's not like Lukas doesn't know how to win a TC race or two. But he also knows how to run a horse into the ground.

This could very well change leading up to the race depending on works, if anyone really stands out over the track or the opposite, defections (hopefully none major), etc.
tcw
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Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:13 pm

Materiality
American Pharoah
Mubtaahij
Dortmund
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Charlie
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Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:10 pm

I'm thinking but I might switch Frosted out.

Dortmund
Firing Line
International Star
Frosted/(American Pharoah )

I want to add American Pharoah but I feel like he's a horse that's either gonna blow the doors off or finish mid-pack unimpressively.
swale1984
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 12:49 am

Not 100% sure I'll do a superfecta this year. Did my first handicapping session (for this Derby) with my partner/mentor last night. After factoring in dosage, form, and speed (we use another friend's speed fig, not BSF, etc.), we identified 7 horses that we think have a shot, but won't finalize until Friday night, as our chart isn't done until post draw and the herd dynamics report comes out. Right now,if I bet, I'd do it like this:

1st Bolo/Dortmund
2nd Bolo, Dortmund, Firing Line, Carpe Diem
3rd: Bolo, Dortmund, Firing Line, Carpe Diem, American Pharoah
4th: Bolo, Dortmund, Firing LIne, Carpe Diem, American Pharoah, International Star, Mubtaahij

Of course, I'll hope that Bolo gets the win...he's currently 40-1!

I think there's a $0.50 super on Derby day. If so, I might go for it. That's a $60 ticket (if I did my math right) and the payout would be more than that for sure.
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dustino140
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 10:28 pm

There isn't a 50-cent Super. Minimum is still $1.
Catalina
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:37 pm

Per last year's chart, both the tri and the super were $2. The Oaks/Derby Double was $1.
swale1984
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:40 pm

dustino140 wrote:There isn't a 50-cent Super. Minimum is still $1.

Well, pooh.
Matt Converse
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Tue Apr 28, 2015 1:28 am

Because I like a fun anagram I'll have to throw $1 on:
Firing Line
Upstart
Carpe Diem
Keen ice
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Ballerina
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Tue Apr 28, 2015 8:10 am

Matt Converse wrote:Because I like a fun anagram I'll have to throw $1 on:
Firing Line
Upstart
Carpe Diem
Keen ice
Be careful you don't get ******.
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