I do two things. If I plan to bet, I handicap each race on an individual basis. However, I do go INTO the Derby asking the question of which horse can win the TC if he is put into the position to do so. Last horse I was truly confident in was Barbaro, but even then, I had told my (now ex) husband that the only horse that could possibly prevent him from winning it all was Jazil in the Belmont.dustino140 wrote:I really hope not. That'd be among the silliest things I've ever heard. And for as long as I've been here, I've heard a lot of them...peeptoad wrote:Are there really people who handicap the Derby based on whether they think any of the contenders can win the Triple Crown? Does that mean you're handicapping the Derby or looking 2 races ahead? I'm honestly asking because I've never heard anyone say this before.... seems like picking the Derby winner is challenging enough without also trying to figure what horse can win the next two races under vastly different race circumstances.MySaladDays wrote: Actually, my philosophy is that if you are really looking for a Triple Crown, then you should theoretically be looking for a horse who can run 1-1/2 miles, not 1-1/4 miles. That whittles down one's KY Derby list quite a bit more. That is one premise that some people start off with in the first place. Makes for a rather different handicapping journey.
Looking at Mubtaahij, he has enough stamina in his pedigree to get the job done AND he has a nice running style to complete the TC. My chart says otherwise, but there are so many things that are different about him that he's an appealing horse to include on a ticket and hope to heaven that you're right.