Mubtaahij

swale1984 · Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:11 pm

dustino140 wrote:
peeptoad wrote:
MySaladDays wrote: Actually, my philosophy is that if you are really looking for a Triple Crown, then you should theoretically be looking for a horse who can run 1-1/2 miles, not 1-1/4 miles. That whittles down one's KY Derby list quite a bit more. That is one premise that some people start off with in the first place. Makes for a rather different handicapping journey.
Are there really people who handicap the Derby based on whether they think any of the contenders can win the Triple Crown? Does that mean you're handicapping the Derby or looking 2 races ahead? I'm honestly asking because I've never heard anyone say this before.... seems like picking the Derby winner is challenging enough without also trying to figure what horse can win the next two races under vastly different race circumstances.
I really hope not. That'd be among the silliest things I've ever heard. And for as long as I've been here, I've heard a lot of them...

I do two things. If I plan to bet, I handicap each race on an individual basis. However, I do go INTO the Derby asking the question of which horse can win the TC if he is put into the position to do so. Last horse I was truly confident in was Barbaro, but even then, I had told my (now ex) husband that the only horse that could possibly prevent him from winning it all was Jazil in the Belmont.

Looking at Mubtaahij, he has enough stamina in his pedigree to get the job done AND he has a nice running style to complete the TC. My chart says otherwise, but there are so many things that are different about him that he's an appealing horse to include on a ticket and hope to heaven that you're right.

Admin · Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:34 pm

If the M horse wins the Derby, are we sure these connections will go to the other TC races?

Tessablue · Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:38 pm

Admin wrote:If the M horse wins the Derby, are we sure these connections will go to the other TC races?

No, but the trainer has nothing against short turnarounds. He's run him back off two weeks and he had just three weeks between those two 9.5f starts. If he manages to run and win without lasix, he should be in better shape than most going forward.

carole · Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:35 pm

Admin wrote:If the M horse wins the Derby, are we sure these connections will go to the other TC races?

It would certainly be interesting, the media would go nuts with no triple crown attempt after winning the KD, what could they advertise? I think it is possible that De Kock wouldn't go for the Triple Crown but if anything I think he would skip the Belmont since Mubtaahij has already proven himself very good at 9.5f. He only sends out his horses if he feels they are 100%.

Izvestia · Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:28 pm

I'm starting to warm to this guy. Here's a nice head shot of him.

https://www.facebook.com/josepayephotog ... =1&theater

MySaladDays · Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:39 pm

dustino140 wrote:And for as long as I've been here, I've heard a lot of them...

What I think is odd is so many years I see people posting "we will have a triple crown this year!!!!!" and then their win pick for the derby is a horse like, um, Gayego.

As for agreement, I am not a person who believes that other people sharing your opinion(s) gives them more *validity*. Consensus isn't comforting, or even necessary for me.

Conversing with fellow racing fans is a social thing ........Just like hearing everybody's perspective.

Don't care if you're right, wrong, etc. (Only place that matters for me is my own bank account ).

So----
IF for those who believe we will have a triple crown, in that year, you are looking for THE horse who is going to win the triple crown.

What would be the point of falling in love with a horse who can't win the Belmont? Anybody who truly believes that we will have a triple crown winner, and is "on board" with a horse they think can do that........ would have to start with the premise that their win wager to start the TC series is on a horse who will be able to theoretically get 1-1/2 miles, ie. win the Belmont.

Note: any year you don't think we will have a TC winner, then the above exercise is unnecesary, obviously.

MySaladDays · Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:51 pm

Izvestia wrote:I'm starting to warm to this guy. Here's a nice head shot of him.

https://www.facebook.com/josepayephotog ... =1&theater

oh wow, thank you. Just sent to link to a friend who actually is uing Mub as her win bet. I'm still only at the point that "he'll do pretty good".

Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:24 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Admin wrote:If the M horse wins the Derby, are we sure these connections will go to the other TC races?
No, but the trainer has nothing against short turnarounds. He's run him back off two weeks and he had just three weeks between those two 9.5f starts. If he manages to run and win without lasix, he should be in better shape than most going forward.

This is why I'm rooting for him (not talking about handicapping angle). If he really is good enough to win the derby, I can't think of any horse prepared better for the TC.

I don't think AP or Dortmund for example could handle it (of course they could just be that good so it doesn't matter) based on their training. Mubtaahij would have a serious advantage there. And no recovery time from Lasix on top of that.

Come to think of it, I have more faith in his trainer than in the horse.

And to be honest I would find it incredibly amusing if an "invader" horse won the TC.

Same way I would love to see a US turfer win the Arc. I just love situations like these.

BaroqueAgain1 · Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:30 pm

Mubtaahij is handsome...he may get that fine-boned head from his grandsire, Dubai Millennium, who IMHO had the most beautiful head I've ever seen on a TB.

gravano · Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:48 pm

Admin wrote:If the M horse wins the Derby, are we sure these connections will go to the other TC races?

There's no question the Sheik wants to an American Triple Crown. He has more horses training in American than most owners.

MySaladDays · Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:57 pm

Kurenai wrote:I have more faith in his trainer than in the horse.

Sort of my thoughts right now. Trying not to let my personal feelings get in way of my handicapping though.

Hope he's on a roll for those betting his horse. On Sat, deKock's filly Alboran Sea won that G1 sprint in SA....one of the few G1 races there that de Kock had never won before. He had another win, as well as a 2nd and a 4th, on Sat as well.

His site lists 104 G1 winners and 141 G2 winners:
http://mikedekockracing.com/

and he's won races in the US/CAN, England, So. Africa, Hong Kong, Australia, Turkey, Singapore, Dubai (which is why I wasn't too worried about his horse travelling). Looks like about a 17% win rate when I did the math. That seems pretty durn good considering it's across 8 nations? Win/Place % is 64%.

Not a bad idea to follow his acquisitions......I have in the past and made some $$ that way.

I imagine some South African and dubai $$ will go into the pools with Mubtaahij running. Probably people who never even wager on the KY Derby -- good for us.

G1s here and in England I think may be zero? Maybe somebody can look it up

Somnambulist · Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:18 pm

MySaladDays wrote:What would be the point of falling in love with a horse who can't win the Belmont?

What would be the point not? The feeling of a potential TC winner is second to none..

Then again, they haven't even run the first race. I have no idea why people are talking about the whole series. That's probably why people don't want to "fall for" a potential TC winner... you're already setting yourself up for failure.

I watched last year's Belmont with a 65 year old degenerate and a bunch of people who have never watched a TC attempt. When Chrome started looking anything but Chrome he and I were like, well, ok! move on. The rest were visibly deflated. I've got many theories on what choosing racing as your first sport to follow in-depth does to your personality long term, but it's racing. It's the good with the bad.

Afrashad · Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:22 pm

gravano wrote:He has more horses training in American than most owners.

You do realize that the Sheikh Mohammed who owns Mubtaahij isn't the Sheikh Mohammed who owns Darley, right?

dustino140 · Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:28 pm

MySaladDays wrote: Trying not to let my personal feelings get in way of my handicapping though.

With all due respect, I'm pretty sure this ship has sailed.

Tessablue · Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:34 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
MySaladDays wrote:What would be the point of falling in love with a horse who can't win the Belmont?
What would be the point not? The feeling of a potential TC winner is second to none..

Then again, they haven't even run the first race. I have no idea why people are talking about the whole series. That's probably why people don't want to "fall for" a potential TC winner... you're already setting yourself up for failure.

I watched last year's Belmont with a 65 year old degenerate and a bunch of people who have never watched a TC attempt. When Chrome started looking anything but Chrome he and I were like, well, ok! move on. The rest were visibly deflated. I've got many theories on what choosing racing as your first sport to follow in-depth does to your personality long term, but it's racing. It's the good with the bad.

Racing is basically a drug, right? It has incredible highs and incredible lows, and you stick with it because you're always seeking those highs. No matter who wins the Derby this year, I'll probably convince myself in the intervening two weeks that the horse will win the triple crown. And then when he fails, I'll look towards next year. It's crazy if you stop to think about it.

And I won't lie- I've thought that this horse has the best chance of them all if he wins the first leg, just because he won't have to recover from lasix and he's already shown he can turn around quickly. It's a huge if, but I'll Have Another taught me that you never know when the best horse will reveal themselves.

(and regarding the trainer, his record in the US is pretty excellent- I think he's had six starts, not a horse off the board and two first place finishes although one was disqualified. He most definitely knows when a horse is well-suited for the journey, and there may not be a more skilled shipper in the world. I first started paying attention to this horse because I couldn't believe de Kock was considering a Derby entrant. No matter what happens, having him at this race will be a treat.)

gravano · Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:37 pm

Afrashad wrote:
gravano wrote:He has more horses training in American than most owners.
You do realize that the Sheikh Mohammed who owns Mubtaahij isn't the Sheikh Mohammed who owns Darley, right?

I reckon they are cousins. Both with big international aims in regards to horse racing. Methinks he would like to win a Triple Crown from the US, but I guess he doesn't train horses in America like his cousin.

dustino140 · Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:40 pm

I'm trying to figure out which recent Derby winner was more of an anointed shoe-in for the Triple Crown - Orb or Barbaro. How did they work out? I don't think any horse will win the Triple Crown and treat the three races as just that...three races.

Somnambulist · Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:42 pm

dustino140 wrote:I'm trying to figure out which recent Derby winner was more of an anointed shoe-in for the Triple Crown - Orb or Barbaro. How did they work out? I don't think any horse will win the Triple Crown and treat the three races as just that...three races.

The sports bitter worst hangover of in the history of hangovers says... Orb. Orb. Why.

BaroqueAgain1 · Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:45 pm

Bloodhorse has Mubtaahij's owner listed as Sheikh Mohd al Maktoum.
I tried to Google him, but only got stuff on Sheikh MOHAMMED al Maktoum.

I presume he's a close relative, but he's definitely not THE Sheikh Mo, ruler of Dubai.

dustino140 · Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:46 pm

MySaladDays wrote:
dustino140 wrote:And for as long as I've been here, I've heard a lot of them...
What I think is odd is so many years I see people posting "we will have a triple crown this year!!!!!" and then their win pick for the derby is a horse like, um, Gayego.

As for agreement, I am not a person who believes that other people sharing your opinion(s) gives them more *validity*. Consensus isn't comforting, or even necessary for me.

Conversing with fellow racing fans is a social thing ........Just like hearing everybody's perspective. Don't care if you're right, wrong, etc. (Only place that matters for me is my own bank account ).

So----
IF for those who believe we will have a triple crown, in that year, you are looking for THE horse who is going to win the triple crown.

What would be the point of falling in love with a horse who can't win the Belmont? Anybody who truly believes that we will have a triple crown winner, and is "on board" with a horse they think can do that........ would have to start with the premise that their win wager to start the TC series is on a horse who will be able to theoretically get 1-1/2 miles, ie. win the Belmont.

Note: any year you don't think we will have a TC winner, then the above exercise is unnecesary, obviously.

It's easy. I never think we'll have a Triple Crown winner. I'm batting 1.000 in my lifetime with that prognostication.