Mubtaahij

peeptoad
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:41 am

Hail To Reason wrote:Mubtaahij has many reasons to be considered a good contender.
He has top professional proven trainer and rider in Mike De Kock and Chris Soumillon.
He can break quickly from the gate.
He can get position and run covered just behind the leaders.
He has good muscle twitch for his drive winning easily and comfortably in his last 2 races
He stands well in the gate and ran in fields of 13 horses and won both stakes, one a Grade 3.
He defeated Sir Fever by 2 ½ in a duel that left the rest of the field 10 ½ lengths behind.
His time in the 1 & 3/16th UAE Derby carrying 121 lbs was 1:58:01 with no race day meds.
The track record for 1 & 3/16ths at Churchill is 1:58:12 with race day meds.
It was set Nov 17, 2012 by the 3 YO named Tritap carrying 118lbs.

Having said all of the above here is where I have a couple of questions.
Can he handle a quick half carrying 126 lbs and still put up a strong drive?
If there wasn't much pace in the race I would give him a good shot.
However, I think the pace and weight could compromise his chances.
With the exception of a few of these items (like the muscle twitch thing? beating Sir Fever?), many of the top contenders based in the US also have to answer those same questions (or generally fit the criteria listed above), but they don't also have to contend with shipping halfway around the world and going through the quarantine process, not having the special feed the horse has been on for his racing career removed, etc. The US horses will also have the benefit of racing on Lasix.

Basically, there is less known about this horse than the US contenders, plus he has some strong negatives to overcome that the US horses don't... his odds better be ~ 20/1 otherwise I"m not touching him even for the bottom of the tri or super.
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 12:47 pm

Hail To Reason wrote:Mubtaahij has many reasons to be considered a good contender.
He has top professional proven trainer and rider in Mike De Kock and Chris Soumillon.
And it's unusual? Or matters? Ask California Chrome, Smarty Jones and a number of others.
He can break quickly from the gate.
He can get position and run covered just behind the leaders.
He has good muscle twitch for his drive winning easily and comfortably in his last 2 races
He stands well in the gate and ran in fields of 13 horses and won both stakes, one a Grade 3.
He defeated Sir Fever by 2 ½ in a duel that left the rest of the field 10 ½ lengths behind.
His time in the 1 & 3/16th UAE Derby carrying 121 lbs was 1:58:01 with no race day meds.
The track record for 1 & 3/16ths at Churchill is 1:58:12 with race day meds.
It was set Nov 17, 2012 by the 3 YO named Tritap carrying 118lbs.
Diff tracks, way different days, and don't see what raceday meds have to do with it.
Having said all of the above here is where I have a couple of questions.
Can he handle a quick half carrying 126 lbs and still put up a strong drive?
If there wasn't much pace in the race I would give him a good shot.
However, I think the pace and weight could compromise his chances.
Why would the weight compromise this horse but not others? And given they're all carrying 126, what does it matter? Weight given is what matters, not what weight all of them are carrying.
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
Tessablue
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:14 pm

dustino140 wrote:I guess what confuses me is he's getting credit for 'passing' the distance test, when his UAE Derby was 330 feet longer than the FL Derby, LA Derby, SA Derby, Wood, etc. Are we really drawing the line between 9.5f as 'passing' the test and 9f as 'not passing' the test? That just feels more like an arbitrary line, than anything else. IMO of course.
Maybe it's arbitrary, but the fact remains that the only other horse in Derby history to have as much distance foundation won the race. However, it's not the length of the races that convinced me- the horse can't choose which races they run in- but it's the fact that he has shown a very classic progression in performance as the distances have increased. He stepped up his game considerably going from 8f to 9.5f and has finished very strongly in every one of his starts, even (or especially) those at longer distances. It is impossible to say for certain with any Derby horse, but Mubtaahij does his best running after a mile and has never lost ground late, and that's not something you see in every Derby horse.

Also, my enthusiasm towards him is based on a lot more than the UAE Derby. I think some people are dismissing OR hyping him based solely on that win, but it's his total body of work that appeals to me, not one race (one race can always be an outlier). I have faith that he will handle the Derby's adversity and have something left late, and thus I am very happy with 12-1 (or possibly higher- perhaps the hype has faded a bit since he did the bulk of his training elsewhere?) I'm also very intrigued by his trainer, who never comes to America unless he has a loaded gun- hard to even consider Mubtaahij in the same category as past Dubai Derby horses because of the differences in his connections.

We'll see. I don't think I'll feel stupid or foolish afterwards as I have with some of my Derby bets, even if he runs last- from what information we have, he's an appealing Derby candidate and I'm happy with the odds. Really enjoy seeing what everyone else thinks though, hard to remember a more divisive Derby horse in recent memory.
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dustino140
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:18 pm

I don't really see any reason to feel foolish about any Derby pick. 95% of the horses in the race lose anyway.
Tessablue
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:26 pm

dustino140 wrote:I don't really see any reason to feel foolish about any Derby pick. 95% of the horses in the race lose anyway.
Perfectly true but... Gemologist haunts me to this day. To the point where I'm pretty sure he's the main reason I'm reluctant to get behind Carpe Diem.
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dustino140
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:32 pm

Tessablue wrote:
dustino140 wrote:I don't really see any reason to feel foolish about any Derby pick. 95% of the horses in the race lose anyway.
Perfectly true but... Gemologist haunts me to this day. To the point where I'm pretty sure he's the main reason I'm reluctant to get behind Carpe Diem.
I danced with Gemologist that year. It happens. I'd still toss I'll Have Another based on the draw, jockey and coming in off a gutwrenching race.
Tessablue
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:39 pm

dustino140 wrote:
Tessablue wrote:
dustino140 wrote:I don't really see any reason to feel foolish about any Derby pick. 95% of the horses in the race lose anyway.
Perfectly true but... Gemologist haunts me to this day. To the point where I'm pretty sure he's the main reason I'm reluctant to get behind Carpe Diem.
I danced with Gemologist that year. It happens. I'd still toss I'll Have Another based on the draw, jockey and coming in off a gutwrenching race.
Yeah, I don't think I even gave I'll Have Another a first look. In retrospect he fulfilled the "any Santa Anita Derby run under 1:48 will produce a Derby winner" prophecy (which is bizarrely consistent), but he really slipped through the cracks that year. Gemologist hurt because he felt so obvious at a nice price, but as you said, it happens. I know now that you can't expect to win this race- you just hope to learn something and use it next time. With this year's field being as deep as it is, I think this applies more than ever. If Mubtaahij runs terribly, maybe I'll learn to respect the shipping angle more going forward. Of course, if he runs well that added value could vanish from future races- so it's now or never, possibly.
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dustino140
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:50 pm

I think that if Europe (or any other country) really ever begins embracing our big dirt events, they'll start taking them on a semi-regular basis. They've been beaten, what, a combined 4 feet in the last two Breeders' Cup Classics and they majority of their Derby horses have been, IMO, just ill-prepared. I do like the way Mubtaahij is coming in and my biggest issue with him isn't really him so much as it's everyone else. This is just a really good Derby and I think a lot of this year's horses put a tick in a lot of the same boxes Mubtaahij does (fast, visually impressive, dominant, working well, likely capable of going 10f) without some of the downsides (shipping, different race dynamics and flow from Dubai, etc).

Unfortunately, I don't think it's coincidence that Materiality, Carpe Diem, Dortmund and American Pharoah are a combined 19-17-1-0 in their careers. They're just that good. Last year I'd have been taking 8/1 on Mubtaahij and giggling as I clicked 'Bet Again' on my Xpressbet account.
Tessablue
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:07 pm

Fair enough! It'd be really nice if he has some success and it encourages others to ship; only adds to the intrigue and the race's status.

This year's field is very deep but I can't stop thinking back to 2006- a lot of people thought that field was one of the best ever, but in retrospect there was really only one standout and it was pretty straightforward. Really looking forward to seeing if this year emulates 2006 or lives up to its promise. Until then I'm going to hold out hope that there really is a standout hiding in plain sight (or in obvious sight, though my current opinion towards American Pharoah is "maybe if I don't look at him he'll go away"), but seeing four or more quality horses run their best would be equally thrilling,

Starting to get more excited. Can't we have the draw already?
MySaladDays
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:20 pm

Tessablue wrote:(interestingly, I've found that a lot of people who like him also like the other two horses I'm focusing on, Frosted and International Star.
I think people certainly give different weight to different handicapping angles, and that is displayed in their picks.

I believe that track performance outweighs pedigree, but nobody says ya can't choose horses based on their ability to go a classic distance, and then cap that group for performance-based factors.

And yes, I also like the other runners you mentioned, I don't like Carpe Diem, etc.

So we all have our "patterns" that is true. There are a number of well known personalities who have less than glowing Derby records, like Andy Beyer, so I will often look their information over more carefully for holes.

Actually, my philosophy is that if you are really looking for a Triple Crown, then you should theoretically be looking for a horse who can run 1-1/2 miles, not 1-1/4 miles. :D That whittles down one's KY Derby list quite a bit more. That is one premise that some people start off with in the first place. Makes for a rather different handicapping journey.
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dustino140
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:27 pm

Tessablue wrote:(or in obvious sight, though my current opinion towards American Pharoah is "maybe if I don't look at him he'll go away")
The funny thing is, after the race, there's probably a 40% chance we're going to be sitting here thinking to ourselves...yep, American Pharoah just is that good.
Tessablue
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:36 pm

dustino140 wrote:
Tessablue wrote:(or in obvious sight, though my current opinion towards American Pharoah is "maybe if I don't look at him he'll go away")
The funny thing is, after the race, there's probably a 40% chance we're going to be sitting here thinking to ourselves...yep, American Pharoah just is that good.
I completely agree and yet I'm completely reluctant to spend a single dollar on him.

Are psychologists aware of what a goldmine this sport is?
swale1984
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:36 pm

[quote="dustino140"]I think that if Europe (or any other country) really ever begins embracing our big dirt events, they'll start taking them on a semi-regular basis. They've been beaten, what, a combined 4 feet in the last two Breeders' Cup Classics and they majority of their Derby horses have been, IMO, just ill-prepared. I do like the way Mubtaahij is coming in and my biggest issue with him isn't really him so much as it's everyone else. This is just a really good Derby and I think a lot of this year's horses put a tick in a lot of the same boxes Mubtaahij does (fast, visually impressive, dominant, working well, likely capable of going 10f) without some of the downsides (shipping, different race dynamics and flow from Dubai, etc).

Unfortunately, I don't think it's coincidence that Materiality, Carpe Diem, Dortmund and American Pharoah are a combined 19-17-1-0 in their careers. They're just that good. Last year I'd have been taking 8/1 on Mubtaahij and giggling as I clicked 'Bet Again' on my Xpressbet account.[/quote]

I am not sold on Materiality, simply becaue I don't feel he's seasoned enough to deal with this atmosphere. It's also one of my hang-ups regarding American Pharoah. However, AP has looked amazing in his preps, so he makes the cut onto the ticket with Mubtaahij and Materiality doesn't.
swale1984
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:38 pm

MySaladDays wrote:
Tessablue wrote:(interestingly, I've found that a lot of people who like him also like the other two horses I'm focusing on, Frosted and International Star.
I think people certainly give different weight to different handicapping angles, and that is displayed in their picks.

I believe that track performance outweighs pedigree, but nobody says ya can't choose horses based on their ability to go a classic distance, and then cap that group for performance-based factors.

And yes, I also like the other runners you mentioned, I don't like Carpe Diem, etc.

So we all have our "patterns" that is true. There are a number of well known personalities who have less than glowing Derby records, like Andy Beyer, so I will often look their information over more carefully for holes.

Actually, my philosophy is that if you are really looking for a Triple Crown, then you should theoretically be looking for a horse who can run 1-1/2 miles, not 1-1/4 miles. :D That whittles down one's KY Derby list quite a bit more. That is one premise that some people start off with in the first place. Makes for a rather different handicapping journey.


I'm one of those. My Derby horse HAS to be a Belmont horse. If he isn't, then what is the point of going in the Derby? That's one reason I like Mubtaahij, along with Bolo. Neither should have any problem getting 12 furlongs.
Somnambulist

Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:41 pm

Tessablue wrote:Are psychologists aware of what a goldmine this sport is?
No. When I wanted a PhD I found a few people to study decision making and stuff under, but no one really focused on gambling. Or if they did it was more a clinical approach.. unsuprisingly. Very small amount of literature on it in general and I always thought with some creativity that it would lead to some really interesting decision-resulty stuff.

Sometimes I entertain the notion of going back and doing that...
peeptoad
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:46 pm

MySaladDays wrote: Actually, my philosophy is that if you are really looking for a Triple Crown, then you should theoretically be looking for a horse who can run 1-1/2 miles, not 1-1/4 miles. :D That whittles down one's KY Derby list quite a bit more. That is one premise that some people start off with in the first place. Makes for a rather different handicapping journey.
Are there really people who handicap the Derby based on whether they think any of the contenders can win the Triple Crown? Does that mean you're handicapping the Derby or looking 2 races ahead? I'm honestly asking because I've never heard anyone say this before.... seems like picking the Derby winner is challenging enough without also trying to figure what horse can win the next two races under vastly different race circumstances.
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dustino140
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:49 pm

swale1984 wrote: I'm one of those. My Derby horse HAS to be a Belmont horse. If he isn't, then what is the point of going in the Derby? That's one reason I like Mubtaahij, along with Bolo. Neither should have any problem getting 12 furlongs.
Wait, what?
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dustino140
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:50 pm

peeptoad wrote:
MySaladDays wrote: Actually, my philosophy is that if you are really looking for a Triple Crown, then you should theoretically be looking for a horse who can run 1-1/2 miles, not 1-1/4 miles. :D That whittles down one's KY Derby list quite a bit more. That is one premise that some people start off with in the first place. Makes for a rather different handicapping journey.
Are there really people who handicap the Derby based on whether they think any of the contenders can win the Triple Crown? Does that mean you're handicapping the Derby or looking 2 races ahead? I'm honestly asking because I've never heard anyone say this before.... seems like picking the Derby winner is challenging enough without also trying to figure what horse can win the next two races under vastly different race circumstances.
I really hope not. That'd be among the silliest things I've ever heard. And for as long as I've been here, I've heard a lot of them...
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dustino140
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:51 pm

swale1984 wrote:
dustino140 wrote:I think that if Europe (or any other country) really ever begins embracing our big dirt events, they'll start taking them on a semi-regular basis. They've been beaten, what, a combined 4 feet in the last two Breeders' Cup Classics and they majority of their Derby horses have been, IMO, just ill-prepared. I do like the way Mubtaahij is coming in and my biggest issue with him isn't really him so much as it's everyone else. This is just a really good Derby and I think a lot of this year's horses put a tick in a lot of the same boxes Mubtaahij does (fast, visually impressive, dominant, working well, likely capable of going 10f) without some of the downsides (shipping, different race dynamics and flow from Dubai, etc).

Unfortunately, I don't think it's coincidence that Materiality, Carpe Diem, Dortmund and American Pharoah are a combined 19-17-1-0 in their careers. They're just that good. Last year I'd have been taking 8/1 on Mubtaahij and giggling as I clicked 'Bet Again' on my Xpressbet account.


I am not sold on Materiality, simply becaue I don't feel he's seasoned enough to deal with this atmosphere. It's also one of my hang-ups regarding American Pharoah. However, AP has looked amazing in his preps, so he makes the cut onto the ticket with Mubtaahij and Materiality doesn't.


Oh, I'm not sold on Materiality at all and don't like him one bit in the race. With that in mind, he made my stat sound better ;)
peeptoad
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Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:58 pm

dustino140 wrote:
peeptoad wrote:
MySaladDays wrote: Actually, my philosophy is that if you are really looking for a Triple Crown, then you should theoretically be looking for a horse who can run 1-1/2 miles, not 1-1/4 miles. :D That whittles down one's KY Derby list quite a bit more. That is one premise that some people start off with in the first place. Makes for a rather different handicapping journey.
Are there really people who handicap the Derby based on whether they think any of the contenders can win the Triple Crown? Does that mean you're handicapping the Derby or looking 2 races ahead? I'm honestly asking because I've never heard anyone say this before.... seems like picking the Derby winner is challenging enough without also trying to figure what horse can win the next two races under vastly different race circumstances.
I really hope not. That'd be among the silliest things I've ever heard. And for as long as I've been here, I've heard a lot of them...
Well, we've been here for roughly the same number of years and I'd have to agree with you... hopefully I mis-read the meaning of the post.
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