With the exception of a few of these items (like the muscle twitch thing? beating Sir Fever?), many of the top contenders based in the US also have to answer those same questions (or generally fit the criteria listed above), but they don't also have to contend with shipping halfway around the world and going through the quarantine process, not having the special feed the horse has been on for his racing career removed, etc. The US horses will also have the benefit of racing on Lasix.Hail To Reason wrote:Mubtaahij has many reasons to be considered a good contender.
He has top professional proven trainer and rider in Mike De Kock and Chris Soumillon.
He can break quickly from the gate.
He can get position and run covered just behind the leaders.
He has good muscle twitch for his drive winning easily and comfortably in his last 2 races
He stands well in the gate and ran in fields of 13 horses and won both stakes, one a Grade 3.
He defeated Sir Fever by 2 ½ in a duel that left the rest of the field 10 ½ lengths behind.
His time in the 1 & 3/16th UAE Derby carrying 121 lbs was 1:58:01 with no race day meds.
The track record for 1 & 3/16ths at Churchill is 1:58:12 with race day meds.
It was set Nov 17, 2012 by the 3 YO named Tritap carrying 118lbs.
Having said all of the above here is where I have a couple of questions.
Can he handle a quick half carrying 126 lbs and still put up a strong drive?
If there wasn't much pace in the race I would give him a good shot.
However, I think the pace and weight could compromise his chances.
Basically, there is less known about this horse than the US contenders, plus he has some strong negatives to overcome that the US horses don't... his odds better be ~ 20/1 otherwise I"m not touching him even for the bottom of the tri or super.