San Felipe Stakes (G2)

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Hoist The Flag
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Wed Mar 04, 2015 4:25 pm

Santa Anita Park
Race 7 San Felipe S. (Grade II) POST Time - 3:00 PM
March 7, 2015

Purse $400,000. For Three-Year-Olds. By subscription of $100 each to accompany the nomination (Closed with11) or by supplementary nomination of $8,000 at time of entry. $6,000 additional to start, with $400,000 Guaranteed. The winner to receive $240,000 PLUS 50 KENTUCKY DERBY POINTS, $80,000 to second (20 KY DERBY POINTS), $48,000 to third (10 KY DERBY POINTS), $24,000 to fourth (5 KY DERBY POINTS) and $8,000 to fifth. 123 Lbs. Non-winners of a Grade I or Grade II stake at One Mile or Over allowed 3 Lbs. Non-winners of a Grade III stake at One Mile or Over, allowed 5 Lbs. *Early bird nominees to the 2015 Santa Anita Derby are automatically eligible to the San Felipe Stakes with all fees waived. (Closed with 118). Total earnings in non-claiming races will be used in determining the preference of horses with equal weights. Starters to be named through the entry box by the closing time fo entries. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner. One And One Sixteenth Miles.


PP / Horse / Jockey / Wgt / Trainer

1 Lord Nelson (KY) 3/C R Bejarano 118 B Baffert
2 Ocho Ocho Ocho (KY) 3/C M E Smith 120 J M Cassidy
3 Dortmund (KY) 3/C M Garcia 123 B Baffert
4 The Gomper (KY) 3/C T Baze 118 R W Ellis
5 Kenjisstorm (KY) 3/C A Delgadillo 118 G Papaprodromou
6 Prospect Park (KY) 3/C K J Desormeaux 118 C W Sise, Jr.
7 Bolo (KY) 3/C V Espinoza 118 C Gaines
8 Pulmarack (CA) 3/C D Van Dyke 118 J Hollendorfer
9 Sir Samson (KY) 3/C J Talamo 118 B J Koriner
10 Pain and Misery (KY) 3/G F Prat 118 R E Mandella
Hoist the Flag was the best horse I ever rode, by far... It wasn't Seattle Slew.
Jean Cruguet
BaroqueAgain1
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Wed Mar 04, 2015 5:06 pm

That is a pretty good field...think I'm more excited about this prep than the Tampa Bay Derby.
It could come down to Dortmund and Ocho Ocho Ocho...except you won't be able to see TripleO if he's behind the Big D. Dortmund is 17.1 and TripleO is, what, 15.1? :lol: He may be small, but he is one fast, tough little sob.
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ElPrado2
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Wed Mar 04, 2015 5:13 pm

Ocho Ocho Ocho could also be called Triple 8. Ocho is the number 8 in Spanish. :)
Izvestia
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Wed Mar 04, 2015 6:45 pm

I do hope Ocho Ocho Ocho runs well and wins it. Been looking forward to watching this little guy run.
Somnambulist

Wed Mar 04, 2015 6:58 pm

Hard looking past the chalk, unless you want to try to make the case Lord Nelson wants distance. He's definitely bred for it and his past two attempts at this distance has legit excuses so now's the time I guess.
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dustino140
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Wed Mar 04, 2015 8:08 pm

While I'm not going to sit here and say that there's no way Lord Nelson can route, given his two subpar route efforts (one of which was hindered by a bad start), I'm going to need to make him beat me going two turns before I back him going two turns. Yes, he's bred for it and yes he runs like he can do it, but I've found that closing sprinters are among the most deceptive when it comes to evaluating their two-turn prowess.

I think I really like Ocho Ocho Ocho here, but the presence of Dortmund is such a daunting one. I really feel like there are so many good horses right now that just need prove themselves by stamping a big win on their resume, and horses like Firing Line, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Bolo, etc. fall into that category. Interesting to remember that Ocho Ocho Ocho beat Far Right at Delta by 4 lengths. But in all honesty, I think very little separates Dortmund and him.
Horsebagger
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Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:05 am

Am I understanding this correctly.......the plan with Dortmund as of now is San Felipe/Santa Anita Derby/Kentucky Derby? So, if my math is close, we're talking the Kentucky Derby is going to be his 4th race in 12 weeks?

Wouldn't be on my KD short list with that kind of schedule, and this trainer.

I think I'm going to try Bolo here. There's enough dirt pedigree in my mind to give him a chance, assuming he isn't too short a price.
Matt Converse
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Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 am

This is a nice Derby prep. I have to go with Dortmund again, although I like Ocho Ocho Ocho too. Prospect Park & Bolo are the two that really need this race to show they are Derby horses. I really liked Prospect Park's last race, but this is a big class test for him. Bolo's test is the surface, but he has been training very well on the dirt. He could go from turf horse with Derby fever to Derby contender in one race, or...not. Lastly, we have Lord Nelson, who probably has a shot to surprise. The slight fade from 3rd to 4th in one of his two turn races doesn't look so bad considering the three beating him were American Pharoah, Calculator, and Texas Red. I can see why they're giving him another shot.
gravano
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Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:02 pm

I like Dortmund, Prospect Park and Bolo in here. I was surprised to see the 17-hand Dortmund in this. We'll see if the light bulb really did switch on as Baffert says. There's a lot of game horses, so I expect a good finish.
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Insane Crazy
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Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:32 am

Horsebagger wrote:Am I understanding this correctly.......the plan with Dortmund as of now is San Felipe/Santa Anita Derby/Kentucky Derby? So, if my math is close, we're talking the Kentucky Derby is going to be his 4th race in 12 weeks?

Wouldn't be on my KD short list with that kind of schedule, and this trainer.
He's running regularly every four weeks off of a seven week break. Is that really so wild of a schedule these days that we don't think it's doable?

I feel like he seemed to do just fine off of a win/four weeks/win/three weeks/win schedule in November and December. Might be that he's a horse who just does better if he gets the race instead of the bullet work. It's not that I don't see your point, there's always a possibility of burnout before Derby day, but I find the schedule oddly refreshing and hardly a death sentence.
Not a wholesome trottin' race, no, but a race where they sit down right on the horse!
Like to see some stuck-up jockey boy sittin' on Dan Patch? Make your blood boil? Well, I should say!
gravano
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Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:07 pm

Four races in three months doesn't bother me either. Baffert debated the schedule but seemed to come away feeling the bulb had switched on and he's ready to run. I think most fans find that plan refreshing. The school of lightly racing seems to stem a lot from Pletcher and his Derby success speaks for itself. Still, Baffert is tough on horses and this is a big guy that's growing into himself. I think the plan might be good for the Derby but I also want to see this guy race for a while.
Somnambulist

Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:12 pm

gravano wrote:Four races in three months doesn't bother me either. Baffert debated the schedule but seemed to come away feeling the bulb had switched on and he's ready to run. I think most fans find that plan refreshing. The school of lightly racing seems to stem a lot from Pletcher and his Derby success speaks for itself. Still, Baffert is tough on horses and this is a big guy that's growing into himself. I think the plan might be good for the Derby but I also want to see this guy race for a while.
Baffert says a lot of things.

Lightly racing has hardly much to do with Pletcher and more to do with racing in general these days.
peeptoad
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Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:14 pm

I like Prospect Park in here.
gravano
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Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:38 pm

$50 on San Felipe here
http://chicagorailbird.blogspot.com/
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Horsebagger
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Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:23 pm

Insane Crazy wrote:
Horsebagger wrote:Am I understanding this correctly.......the plan with Dortmund as of now is San Felipe/Santa Anita Derby/Kentucky Derby? So, if my math is close, we're talking the Kentucky Derby is going to be his 4th race in 12 weeks?

Wouldn't be on my KD short list with that kind of schedule, and this trainer.
He's running regularly every four weeks off of a seven week break. Is that really so wild of a schedule these days that we don't think it's doable?

I feel like he seemed to do just fine off of a win/four weeks/win/three weeks/win schedule in November and December. Might be that he's a horse who just does better if he gets the race instead of the bullet work. It's not that I don't see your point, there's always a possibility of burnout before Derby day, but I find the schedule oddly refreshing and hardly a death sentence.
With this trainer, who likes working his horses like track stars, yes. He destroyed Bodemeister's career as a racehorse by trying to jam a lightly raced talented horse into a tight schedule to make the Derby.
Admin
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Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:58 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
gravano wrote:Four races in three months doesn't bother me either. Baffert debated the schedule but seemed to come away feeling the bulb had switched on and he's ready to run. I think most fans find that plan refreshing. The school of lightly racing seems to stem a lot from Pletcher and his Derby success speaks for itself. Still, Baffert is tough on horses and this is a big guy that's growing into himself. I think the plan might be good for the Derby but I also want to see this guy race for a while.
Baffert says a lot of things.

Lightly racing has hardly much to do with Pletcher and more to do with racing in general these days.
When talking of Derby horses, Pletcher seems to have made himself a reputation for lightly racing those horses. There was an article about this just in the past couple of days. Part of it was discussing Far From Over skipping the Gothan so the twice-raced horse can get rested for the Wood.

With all the talk of how big Dortmend (sp?) is, that causes some hesitation for me regarding him staying sound. But I'd sure rather my Derby potential be trained by Baffert than Pletcher, so I guess I'll take Dort over Far From Over.
"This is how we roll in the Shire." -- Leonard
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Insane Crazy
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Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:01 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
Insane Crazy wrote:
Horsebagger wrote:Am I understanding this correctly.......the plan with Dortmund as of now is San Felipe/Santa Anita Derby/Kentucky Derby? So, if my math is close, we're talking the Kentucky Derby is going to be his 4th race in 12 weeks?

Wouldn't be on my KD short list with that kind of schedule, and this trainer.
He's running regularly every four weeks off of a seven week break. Is that really so wild of a schedule these days that we don't think it's doable?

I feel like he seemed to do just fine off of a win/four weeks/win/three weeks/win schedule in November and December. Might be that he's a horse who just does better if he gets the race instead of the bullet work. It's not that I don't see your point, there's always a possibility of burnout before Derby day, but I find the schedule oddly refreshing and hardly a death sentence.
With this trainer, who likes working his horses like track stars, yes. He destroyed Bodemeister's career as a racehorse by trying to jam a lightly raced talented horse into a tight schedule to make the Derby.
I don't disagree with your second statement. Bode started in mid-January, though, and didn't break his maiden until February -- meanwhile, Dortmund had was three for three before the new year. Is a different scenario and one that may play out nicely for the specific horse in question. I could do without Baffert's blazing works, but I do notice his last two works have been much softer than the screw-tightening ones he did in January (:49 and 1:25.60, vs. 47.60, 59.40, 1:23.40, and 1:12.20). I guess I'm just curious but hopeful on how it might shake out.

Hopefully every race isn't a dog fight like his last two, though! That's what I'm more worried about when it comes to his schedule.
Not a wholesome trottin' race, no, but a race where they sit down right on the horse!
Like to see some stuck-up jockey boy sittin' on Dan Patch? Make your blood boil? Well, I should say!
Spahny
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Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:29 pm

peeptoad wrote:I like Prospect Park in here.
I've considered Prospect Park but have some concerns. The obvious class jump. Then there's the Kent factor. Kent is like a pear. There is a very, very short period when he is great. And I'm usually out of the room when he is ripe... I missed the boat on him at Del Mar. I've come to terms with that and moved on. It's not nice but I feel another collapse looming. I'm staying away from him.

I also like Bolo but also have concerns.

I'm very anti Dotmund though...

So... Ocho Ocho Ocho and Mike Smith to run a very big race.
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Raven
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Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:25 am

I'm going with Dortmund in a close race,with Lord Nelson,The Gomper,SirSamson for second and third in ex and tri.
You will soon break the bow if you keep it always stretched ~Faedus~
Matt Converse
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Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:27 am

superfecta
Dortmund
Ocho Ocho Ocho/Prospect Park/Bolo
OOO/PP/Bolo
OOO/PP/Bolo/Lord Nelson
superfecta
Ocho Ocho Ocho/Bolo/Prospect Park
Dortmund
OOO/Bolo/PP
OOO/Bolo/PP/LN
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