American Pharoah

Kay16
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Wed Apr 08, 2015 10:11 am

Matt Converse wrote:Yankee Gentleman doesn't seem so bad, one of his biggest earners was Golden Yank, who although not a 10f horse wasn't a sprinter either, he did fine up to 9f. Mix that with Pioneer of the Nile/Empire Maker/Unbridled on top seems OK to me.
That and there is no wasted in action in this horse. Does things very easily, that should help. Baffert knows how to get them to go 10F. But I'm hoping this horse wants it on his own.
PJMIII
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Fri Apr 10, 2015 6:15 am

Baffert to 'learn more' about American Pharoah in Arkansas Derby

Hall of Famer Bob Baffert commented on Zayat Stables' homebred champion American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile), the 1-2 favorite in Saturday's Arkansas Derby (G1).

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editoria ... i?id=48777
PJMIII
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Sun Apr 12, 2015 12:53 pm

American Pharoah Impressive in Arkansas Derby

Zayat Stables' homebred American Pharoah continued his tour-de-force of the Oaklawn Park 3-year-old prep series April 11, blowing away seven rivals in the $1 million Arkansas Derby with an impressive eight-length score.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... nsas-derby
PJMIII
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Mon Apr 13, 2015 8:37 am

American Pharoah earns superlatives

The top three finishers from Saturday's $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn, including runaway winner American Pharoah, emerged from the 1 1/8-mile race in good order, their connections said Sunday morning.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editoria ... i?id=48807
Horsebagger
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Mon Apr 13, 2015 10:15 am

Matt Converse wrote:Yankee Gentleman doesn't seem so bad, one of his biggest earners was Golden Yank, who although not a 10f horse wasn't a sprinter either, he did fine up to 9f. Mix that with Pioneer of the Nile/Empire Maker/Unbridled on top seems OK to me.
Few things. Yes, Golden Yank was by Yankee Gentleman and showed at least some proclivity to distances. But you fail to mention he was out of a Strike the Gold mare. AP's dam isn't.

Second, you've gone on ad nauseum about gallop outs for years. Yet, none mentioned with AP as far as I can tell. why not?

I'm impressed by this horse's efforts this year, but they've been gift wrapped trips against nobody. And hardly prepare him for the 10 furlong Derby from a foundation perspective. That is his biggest hurdle, still, and nobody can comfortably say he'll get 10 furlongs against quality opposition fast enough to beat everyone home. And those that do get the shortest price in the race. Hardly value to people who bet with value in mind.

Lastly, they're not in the gate yet. 3 weeks out, he looked a lock in the BC Juvenile. And he didn't make it into that get either.
Izvestia
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Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:33 pm

I agree with Horsebagger, and I really like the horse. Going that extra furlong gets a lot of good horses, even the one's that look like they could be the next "great" one.
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ElPrado2
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Mon Apr 13, 2015 2:47 pm

Gift wrapped trips, yes. But some of the horses he was running against had been talked about as Derby horses before he made them look like merry-go-round horses. Now, they are seen as second, third or fourth tier that can't get out of the way of a $4,000 claimer on a good day.
That's the problem now. So many high dollar preps, so few top tier colts in them. Everyone is ducking everyone else. The only way you are going to know is when they meet in the Derby. They are all getting money against so-so competition.
Makes it hell from a handicapping point of view. This one runs in only 2 preps, that one runs in races where every other horse is in quicksand after the turn, another one gets run into by a horse put into the race specifically to be a road block. Oh look, that one won geared down... and so did about 4 others.
Get a dart board. It'll help as much as anything.
Somnambulist

Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:37 pm

Who has he run against this year that people have been talking about as Derby horses?

I like AP a ton, but I'm not sure I like him for the Derby.
Matt Converse
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Location: San Francisco

Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:34 am

Carpe Diem and American Pharoah have beaten little this year. How much does it matter? I'm not sure, it depends on the horse. Seattle Slew is my favorite horse ever and I never thought anyone he beat at three was that good, not just before the Derby, but the Triple Crown included. It didn't make him any less great. You can only beat what shows up. I think it makes the Derby very interesting this year with so many good horses coming in off winning efforts.
peeptoad
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Tue Apr 14, 2015 7:32 am

Save maybe one or two foes per race the "top tier" are all pretty much running against long-shot-type horses though. That's why they're prep races... if you look at the point standings it's highly likely that the Derby field will be composed of the horses that were in the 1-2-3 spots for all the final preps (the 100 point races). Maybe they should just do away with the points system until the final round of preps...

...now where is that dancing chicken?
PJMIII
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Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:00 am

American Pharoah arrives at Churchill

Two days after dominating the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, likely Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) flew to Louisville, Kentucky, Monday afternoon and made his eagerly awaited arrival at Churchill Downs.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editoria ... i?id=48816
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Insane Crazy
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Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:33 am

Somnambulist wrote:Who has he run against this year that people have been talking about as Derby horses?

I like AP a ton, but I'm not sure I like him for the Derby.
This is where I'm starting to drift. Too many worries. He's wicked good, though, and maybe his talent will just outweigh everything.

This is one crop that I'm almost more excited for their late summer/fall campaigns than I am the TC.
Not a wholesome trottin' race, no, but a race where they sit down right on the horse!
Like to see some stuck-up jockey boy sittin' on Dan Patch? Make your blood boil? Well, I should say!
swale1984
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Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:56 am

Insane Crazy wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Who has he run against this year that people have been talking about as Derby horses?

I like AP a ton, but I'm not sure I like him for the Derby.
This is where I'm starting to drift. Too many worries. He's wicked good, though, and maybe his talent will just outweigh everything.

This is one crop that I'm almost more excited for their late summer/fall campaigns than I am the TC.

same here. I go into the Derby looking for a TC horse. I am sure he can gut out 10F. I don't think he's got the pedigree or foundation to get the Belmont.

I think, of all of the top point horses, International Star is a huge threat. He's a grinding type that gutted out every victory in Louisiana, while AP had the Rebel and Arkansas Derby handed to him on a platter.
Somnambulist

Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:05 am

swale1984 wrote: same here. I go into the Derby looking for a TC horse. I am sure he can gut out 10F. I don't think he's got the pedigree or foundation to get the Belmont.

I think, of all of the top point horses, International Star is a huge threat. He's a grinding type that gutted out every victory in Louisiana, while AP had the Rebel and Arkansas Derby handed to him on a platter.
International Star is slooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow. Too slow. This is Ramsey's best hope to date, but when Kitten Kitten has run every other year that isn't saying much.

I think this crop is too deep for a TC winner this year. I really do hope I'm wrong; I'm not getting younger.
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Insane Crazy
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Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:13 am

Somnambulist wrote:
swale1984 wrote: same here. I go into the Derby looking for a TC horse. I am sure he can gut out 10F. I don't think he's got the pedigree or foundation to get the Belmont.

I think, of all of the top point horses, International Star is a huge threat. He's a grinding type that gutted out every victory in Louisiana, while AP had the Rebel and Arkansas Derby handed to him on a platter.
International Star is slooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow. Too slow. This is Ramsey's best hope to date, but when Kitten Kitten has run every other year that isn't saying much.

I think this crop is too deep for a TC winner this year.
@swale, I also try to think "TC" vs. just Derby (can't bet in MO anyway, so it's the best way to keep me excited). Maybe it's starry eyed, but that's what the KD is there for. :D I think AP has the potential to be a freak, but my biggest concern is definitely the foundation. If he weren't coming in off that injury layoff, I think I'd be a lot more pumped about him -- not just as a Derby horse, but for the whole TC.

@Som, lol, it's painfully hilarious (or hilariously painful) that a field can actually be "too deep" for a TC, but I also worry that you're 100% right. Ah, well. I'll explain to the stupid child in my heart that there are worse fates in life than a bunch of talented athletes doing their jobs well.
Not a wholesome trottin' race, no, but a race where they sit down right on the horse!
Like to see some stuck-up jockey boy sittin' on Dan Patch? Make your blood boil? Well, I should say!
swale1984
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Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:46 am

Somnambulist wrote:
International Star is slooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow. Too slow. This is Ramsey's best hope to date, but when Kitten Kitten has run every other year that isn't saying much.

I think this crop is too deep for a TC winner this year. I really do hope I'm wrong; I'm not getting younger.
I've only started my chart. Right now, pedigree and some form are all I've gotten. A friend breaks down speed by opening and closing furlongs, so I'll factor that in later. I guess I put more.emphasis on pedigree anyway.
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pointgivenfan
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Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:49 am

Somnambulist wrote: I think this crop is too deep for a TC winner this year. I really do hope I'm wrong; I'm not getting younger.
I'm shooting a wedding on Belmont day and my track record with such indicates that there is a 100% chance of a TC attempt this year.
Whether or not it is won is another matter.
"I am the man who with the utmost daring discovered what had been discovered before." - G.K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy.
Avatar: Goldikova - 2010 Prix de la Foret, copyright yours truly. =)
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Somnambulist

Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:52 am

pointgivenfan wrote:
Somnambulist wrote: I think this crop is too deep for a TC winner this year. I really do hope I'm wrong; I'm not getting younger.
I'm shooting a wedding on Belmont day and my track record with such indicates that there is a 100% chance of a TC attempt this year.
Whether or not it is won is another matter.
Please don't say that. I'd like to see that Met Mile without dealing with that level of crowd.

I have an engagement party the day of the Preakness. Why people? It's a particularly bad year since everyone I know is going, and one of my all-time favorite artists is the infield talent. When you're in the bridal party and you ditch the party for a degenerate track that is bad, right?
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pointgivenfan
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Tue Apr 14, 2015 11:00 am

Somnambulist wrote:
pointgivenfan wrote:
Somnambulist wrote: I think this crop is too deep for a TC winner this year. I really do hope I'm wrong; I'm not getting younger.
I'm shooting a wedding on Belmont day and my track record with such indicates that there is a 100% chance of a TC attempt this year.
Whether or not it is won is another matter.
Please don't say that. I'd like to see that Met Mile without dealing with that level of crowd.

I have an engagement party the day of the Preakness. Why people? It's a particularly bad year since everyone I know is going, and one of my all-time favorite artists is the infield talent. When you're in the bridal party and you ditch the party for a degenerate track that is bad, right?
Could you do both?
"I am the man who with the utmost daring discovered what had been discovered before." - G.K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy.
Avatar: Goldikova - 2010 Prix de la Foret, copyright yours truly. =)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/timstephansen/
thinair
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Tue Apr 14, 2015 11:01 am

Somnambulist wrote:
pointgivenfan wrote:
Somnambulist wrote: I think this crop is too deep for a TC winner this year. I really do hope I'm wrong; I'm not getting younger.
I'm shooting a wedding on Belmont day and my track record with such indicates that there is a 100% chance of a TC attempt this year.
Whether or not it is won is another matter.
Please don't say that. I'd like to see that Met Mile without dealing with that level of crowd.

I have an engagement party the day of the Preakness. Why people? It's a particularly bad year since everyone I know is going, and one of my all-time favorite artists is the infield talent. When you're in the bridal party and you ditch the party for a degenerate track that is bad, right?

One of the best things about my job is I have a very good excuse not to have to go to things like that on the truly important days:-)
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